Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Children 16 years old and below. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of CSOM. RESULTS: In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies). CONCLUSION: Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

Outcome measures for use in trials of paediatric otorrhoea: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) describes a middle ear infection that results in a perforation of the tympanic membrane and ear discharge, in children and young people (CYP). Prolonged infection may be associated with hearing loss and developmental delay. The current management of paediatric otorrhoea is variable, including non-invasive treatments (conservative, oral antibiotics, topical antibiotics) and surgery, reflecting the lack of a sufficiently strong evidence base. Outcome reporting is fundamental to producing reliable and meaningful evidence to inform best practice. OBJECTIVES: Primary objective: to determine which outcome measures are currently used to evaluate treatment success in studies of non-surgical treatments for paediatric otorrhoea. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: to identify outcome measurement instruments used in the literature and assess their applicability for use in clinical trials of PO. METHODS: This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023407976). Database searches of EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane was performed on June 6, 2023, covering from Jan 1995 to May 2023. Randomised controlled trials or study protocols involving CYP with PO were included following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's tool. RESULTS: Of the 377 papers identified, six were included in the systematic review. The primary outcome of five of the studies related to otorrhoea cessation; both time to cessation and proportion recovered at various time points were used as measures. Two measurement instruments were identified: Otitis Media-6 Questionnaire and the Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire. Both were shown to be applicable measurement instruments when used in clinical trials of PO. CONCLUSIONS: To promote homogeneity and facilitate meaningful comparison and combination of studies, we propose that time to cessation of otorrhoea from onset of otorrhoea should be used as the primary outcome in future studies. Further research is needed to establish if this is the most important outcome to children and their caregivers.

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care. DESIGN: (1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives. DATA SOURCES: For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used. REVIEW METHODS: For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed. RESULTS: People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia). FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Around 1 in 100 people in the UK has coeliac disease. It develops when the immune system attacks the lining of the gut after eating gluten. It is thought that only one in three people with coeliac disease is currently diagnosed. Without treatment, people with coeliac disease are at an increased risk of anaemia, osteoporosis and cancer. Treatment is a lifelong gluten-free diet. Diagnosing coeliac disease is difficult. Some people have minimal or non-specific symptoms, such as pain, indigestion or bloating, so knowing who to test is tricky. WHAT DID WE DO?: We wanted to establish who should be tested for coeliac disease, what tests should be used and whether or not invasive testing (a gut biopsy) is necessary for everyone. We looked at existing studies and data from general practices, and conducted an online survey, and brought everything together in an economic (cost) analysis. WHAT DID WE FIND?: Using individual symptoms is not helpful to identify people who may have coeliac disease. People with coeliac disease are more likely to have a combination of symptoms. People with anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, thyroid disorders, immunoglobulin A deficiency, Down syndrome, Turner syndrome or a family history of coeliac disease are more likely to have coeliac disease and should be offered tests. Common blood tests for coeliac disease are very accurate, particularly when used in combination with genetic testing. Blood tests alone can be used for diagnosis for some people. Others will need a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis. Whether or not this is needed depends on their risk of coeliac disease: whether or not they have symptoms and whether or not they have a condition that puts them at higher risk. Shared decision-making is important for individuals considering an invasive test, depending on how certain they want to be about their diagnosis before starting a gluten-free diet.

Reducing antibiotic use in uncomplicated urinary tract infections in adult women: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigated analgesics, herbal formulations, delayed prescription of antibiotics, and placebo to prevent overprescription of antibiotics in women with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTI). OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of these strategies and to identify symptoms, signs, or other factors that indicate a benefit from these strategies. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: RCTs investigating any strategies to reduce antibiotics vs. immediate antibiotics in adult women with uUTI in primary care. METHODS: We extracted individual participant data (IPD) if available, otherwise aggregate data (AD). Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis of the AD was used for pairwise comparisons. Candidate moderators and prognostic indicators of treatment effects were investigated using generalised linear mixed models based on IPD. RESULTS: We analysed IPD of 3524 patients from eight RCTs and AD of 78 patients. Non-antibiotic strategies increased the rates of incomplete recovery (OR 3.0; 95% credible interval (CrI), 1.7-5.5; Bayesian p-value (pB) = 0.0017; τ = 0.6), subsequent antibiotic treatment (OR 3.5; 95% CrI, 2.1-5.8; pB = 0.0003) and pyelonephritis (OR 5.6; 95% CrI, 2.3-13.9; pB = 0.0003). Conversely, they decreased overall antibiotic use by 63%. Patients positive for urinary erythrocytes and urine culture were at increased risk for incomplete recovery (OR 4.7; 95% CrI, 2.1-10.8; pB = 0.0010), but no difference was apparent where both were negative (OR 0.8; 95% CrI, 0.3-2.0; pB = 0.667). In patients treated using non-antibiotic strategies, urinary erythrocytes and positive urine culture were independent prognostic indicators for subsequent antibiotic treatment and pyelonephritis. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to immediate antibiotics, non-antibiotic strategies reduce overall antibiotic use but result in poorer clinical outcomes. The presence of erythrocytes and tests to confirm bacteria in urine could be used to target antibiotic prescribing.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: the accuracy of serological tests to support the diagnosis of coeliac disease.

BACKGROUND: There is growing support for a biopsy avoidant approach to diagnose coeliac disease in both children and adults, using a serological diagnosis instead. AIMS: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease in adults and children. METHODS: Seven electronic databases were searched between January 1990 and August 2020. Eligible diagnostic studies evaluated the accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease against duodenal biopsy. Risk of bias assessment was performed using QUADAS-2. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate serology sensitivity and specificity at the most commonly reported thresholds. RESULTS: 113 studies (n = 28,338) were included, all in secondary care populations. A subset of studies were included in meta-analyses due to variations in diagnostic thresholds. Summary sensitivity and specificity of immunoglobulin A (IgA) anti-tissue transglutaminase were 90.7% (95% confidence interval: 87.3%, 93.2%) and 87.4% (84.4%, 90.0%) in adults (5 studies) and 97.7% (91.0%, 99.4%) and 70.2% (39.3%, 89.6%) in children (6 studies); and of IgA endomysial antibodies were 88.0% (75.2%, 94.7%) and 99.6% (92.3%, 100%) in adults (5 studies) and 94.5% (88.9%, 97.3%) and 93.8% (85.2%, 97.5%) in children (5 studies). CONCLUSIONS: Anti-tissue transglutaminase sensitivity appears to be sufficient to rule out coeliac disease in children. The high specificity of endomysial antibody in adults supports its use to rule in coeliac disease. This evidence underpins the current development of clinical guidelines for a serological diagnosis of coeliac disease. Studies in primary care are needed to evaluate serological testing strategies in this setting.

Predisposing factors to acquisition of acute respiratory tract infections in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preventing respiratory tract infections (RTIs) could have profound effects on quality of life, primary care workload, antibiotic prescribing and stewardship. We aimed to identify factors that increase and decrease RTI acquisition within Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries. METHODS: Systematic search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane and ISI Web of Knowledge for studies conducted up to July 2020 reporting predisposing factors for community RTI acquisition. Pooled odds ratios were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: 23 studies investigated risk factors associated with community-acquired pneumonia (n = 15); any RTI (n = 4); influenza like illness (n = 2); and lower RTI (n = 2). Demographic, lifestyle and social factors were: underweight BMI (pooled odds ratio (ORp 2.14, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.70, p = 0.97); male sex (ORp 1.30, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.33, p = 0.66); contact with pets (ORp 1.35, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.54, p = 0.72); contact with children (ORp 1.35, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.56, p = 0.05); and ex-smoking status (ORp 1.57, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.88, p = 0.76). Health-related factors were: chronic liver condition (ORp 1.30, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50, p = 0.34); chronic renal condition (ORp 1.47, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.85, p = 0.14); and any hospitalisation in previous five years (ORp 1.64, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.82, p = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: We identified several modifiable risk factors associated with increased likelihood of acquiring RTIs in the community, including low BMI, contact with children and pets. Modification of risk factors and increased awareness of vulnerable groups could reduce morbidity, mortality and antibiotic use associated with RTIs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42019134176.

Accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Coeliac disease (CD) is a systemic immune-mediated disorder triggered by gluten in genetically predisposed individuals. CD is diagnosed using a combination of serology tests and endoscopic biopsy of the small intestine. However, because of non-specific symptoms and heterogeneous clinical presentation, diagnosing CD is challenging. Early detection of CD through improved case-finding strategies can improve the response to a gluten-free diet, patients' quality of life and potentially reduce the risk of complications. However, there is a lack of consensus in which groups may benefit from active case-finding. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a systematic review to determine the accuracy of diagnostic indicators (such as symptoms and risk factors) for CD in adults and children, and thus can help identify patients who should be offered CD testing. MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science will be searched from 1997 until 2020. Screening will be performed in duplicate. Data extraction will be performed by one and checked by a second reviewer. Disagreements will be resolved through discussion or referral to a third reviewer. We will produce a narrative summary of identified prediction models. Studies, where 2×2 data can be extracted or reconstructed, will be treated as diagnostic accuracy studies, that is, the diagnostic indicators are the index tests and CD serology and/or biopsy is the reference standard. For each diagnostic indicator, we will perform a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis of the sensitivity and specificity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Results will be reported in peer-reviewed journals, academic and public presentations and social media. We will convene an implementation panel to advise on the optimum strategy for enhanced dissemination. We will discuss findings with Coeliac UK to help with dissemination to patients. Ethical approval is not applicable, as this is a systematic review and no research participants will be involved. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020170766.

Use of primary care data to predict those most vulnerable to cold weather: a case-crossover analysis.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that GPs use routinely available data to identify patients most at risk of death and ill health from living in cold homes. AIM: To investigate whether sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics could predict cold-related mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: A case-crossover analysis was conducted on 34 777 patients aged ≥65 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who died between April 2012 and March 2014. The average temperature of date of death and 3 days previously were calculated from Met Office data. The average 3-day temperature for the 28th day before/after date of death were calculated, and comparisons were made between these temperatures and those experienced around the date of death. METHOD: Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of death associated with temperature and interactions between temperature and sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics, expressed as relative odds ratios (RORs). RESULTS: Lower 3-day temperature was associated with higher risk of death (OR 1.011 per 1°C fall; 95% CI = 1.007 to 1.015; P<0.001). No modifying effects were observed for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics. Analysis of winter deaths for causes typically associated with excess winter mortality (N = 7710) showed some evidence of a weaker effect of lower 3-day temperature for females (ROR 0.980 per 1°C, 95% CI = 0.959 to 1.002, P = 0.082), and a stronger effect for patients living in northern England (ROR 1.040 per 1°C, 95% CI = 1.013 to 1.066, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that GPs can identify older patients at highest risk of cold-related death using routinely available data, and NICE may need to refine its guidance.

Uva-ursi extract and ibuprofen as alternative treatments of adult female urinary tract infection (ATAFUTI): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Women with acute uncomplicated urine infection are usually treated with antibiotics. One trial has demonstrated that delayed antibiotic treatment offered without symptom relief results in a modest reduction in antibiotic use. There is some evidence that ibuprofen provides symptom relief and reduces antibiotic use. Uva-ursi, a herbal product, has a traditional use for urinary infection symptom relief. We set out to test: in adult women with suspected UTI who accept the delayed prescription strategy: Do NSAIDs or uva-ursi (a herbal product) provide relief from urinary symptoms and reduce antibiotic use. METHODS/DESIGN: Adult women with suspected urinary tract infection presenting to primary care will be randomised using a factorial trial design in which patients will be randomised to one of two interventions as below: Group 1 - Uva-ursi + advice to take ibuprofen Group 2 - Placebo + advice to take ibuprofen Group 3 - Uva-ursi + no advice to take ibuprofen Group 4 - Placebo + no advice to take ibuprofen Patients and physicians will be blinded to the randomised group for the herb. The main outcome is symptom severity at days 2-4 recorded in a validated, self-report diary used in previous studies. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic use and symptom duration. In total the trial will require 328 patients in order to achieve at least 90% power for the primary endpoint and 80% for the secondary endpoint. In accordance with CONSORT guidelines all comparative analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis using SPSS or similar package. DISCUSSION: The outcomes from this trial have the potential to modify the current approach to the management of acute urinary symptoms with less dependence on the use of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN43397016 . Registered on 11 February 2015.

The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children (DUTY) Study Clinical Rule: Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a two-step clinical rule using symptoms, signs and dipstick testing to guide the diagnosis and antibiotic treatment of urinary tract infection (UTI) in acutely unwell young children presenting to primary care. METHODS: Decision analytic model synthesising data from a multicentre, prospective cohort study (DUTY) and the wider literature to estimate the short-term and lifetime costs and healthcare outcomes (symptomatic days, recurrent UTI, quality adjusted life years) of eight diagnostic strategies. We compared GP clinical judgement with three strategies based on a 'coefficient score' combining seven symptoms and signs independently associated with UTI and four strategies based on weighted scores according to the presence/absence of five symptoms and signs. We compared dipstick testing versus laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI. RESULTS: Sampling, culture and antibiotic costs were lowest in high-specificity DUTY strategies (£1.22 and £1.08) compared to clinical judgement (£1.99). These strategies also approximately halved urine sampling (4.8% versus 9.1% in clinical judgement) without reducing sensitivity (58.2% versus 56.4%). Outcomes were very similar across all diagnostic strategies. High-specificity DUTY strategies were more cost-effective than clinical judgement in the short- (iNMB = £0.78 and £0.84) and long-term (iNMB =£2.31 and £2.50). Dipstick tests had poorer cost-effectiveness than laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI (iNMB = £-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to GPs' clinical judgement, high specificity clinical rules from the DUTY study could substantially reduce urine sampling, achieving lower costs and equivalent patient outcomes. Dipstick testing children for UTI is not cost-effective.

Community paediatric respiratory infection surveillance study protocol: a feasibility, prospective inception cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are common reasons for primary care consultations and antibiotic prescribing. Locally relevant syndromic and microbiological surveillance information has the potential to improve the care of children with RTIs by normalising illness (parents) and reducing uncertainty (clinicians). Currently, most RTI studies are conducted at the point of healthcare service consultation, leaving the community burden, microbiology, symptom duration and proportion consulting largely unknown. This study seeks to establish the feasibility of (mainly online) participant recruitment and retention, and the acceptability/comparability of parent versus nurse-collected microbiological sampling, to inform the design of a future surveillance intervention study. Evidence regarding consultation rates and symptom duration is also sought. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A community-based, feasibility prospective inception cohort study, recruiting children aged ≥3 months and <16 years and their parents via general practitioner surgery invitation letter, aiming to collect data on 300 incident RTIs by July 2016. Following informed consent, parents provide baseline (demographic) data online, and respond to weekly emails to confirm the absence/presence of new RTI symptoms. Once symptomatic, parents provide daily data online (RTI symptoms, school/day-care attendance, time off work, health service use, medication), and a research nurse visits to collect clinical examination data and microbiological (nasal and saliva) swabs. Parents are invited to provide symptomatic (at nurse visit, but without nurse assistance) and asymptomatic (alone) swabs on recovery. A review of primary care medical notes will gather medical history, health service utilisation, referral and antibiotic prescribing rates. Feasibility will be assessed using recruitment and retention rates, data completeness; and acceptability by quantitative survey and qualitative interviews. Symptomatic parent and nurse swab pairs will be compared for microbe isolation.

Can oral corticosteroids reduce the severity or duration of an acute cough, and the associated National Health Service and societal costs, in adults presenting to primary care? Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is one of the most common conditions managed internationally and is costly to health services and patients. Despite good evidence that antibiotics are not effective for improving the symptoms of uncomplicated LRTI, they are widely prescribed, contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Many of the symptoms observed in LRTI are mediated by inflammatory processes also observed in exacerbations of asthma, for which there is strong evidence of corticosteroid effectiveness. The primary aim of the OSAC (Oral Steroids for Acute Cough) Trial is to determine whether oral prednisolone (40 mg daily for 5 days) can reduce the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation (day 1 is trial entry) by at least 20% in adults ≥18 years with acute LRTI presenting to primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: OSAC is a two-arm, multi-centre, placebo-controlled, randomised superiority trial. The target sample size is 436 patients, which allows for a 20% dropout rate. Patients will be recruited from primary care sites (General Practitioner surgeries) across England and followed up until symptom resolution. The two primary clinical outcomes are the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough, and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes include: antibiotic consumption; symptom burden; adverse events; participant satisfaction with treatment and intention to consult for future similar illnesses. A parallel economic evaluation will investigate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. DISCUSSION: Results from the OSAC trial will increase knowledge regarding the clinical and cost-effectiveness of corticosteroids for LRTI, and will establish the potential of a new treatment option that could substantially improve patient health. We have chosen a relatively high 'efficacy dose' as this will enable us to decide on the potential for further research into lower dose oral and/or inhaled corticosteroids. This trial will also contribute to a growing body of research investigating the natural course of this very common illness, as well as the effects of steroids on the undesirable inflammatory symptoms associated with infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN57309858 (31 January 2013).

Oral corticosteroid use for clinical and cost-effective symptom relief of sore throat: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Management of acute sore throat poses a significant burden on UK general practices, with almost 10% of registered patients attending their GP with sore throat every year. Nearly half of all patients presenting with acute sore throat are treated with antibiotics, despite their limited effect. In a recent systematic review we demonstrated that a single dose of steroids reduced the severity and time to resolution of sore throat. However, all of the trials included looked at the use of steroids alongside antibiotics and only one was in a primary care setting. This trial aims to assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a single oral dose of corticosteroids on symptoms of sore throat in patients receiving either a delayed antibiotic prescription or no antibiotics at all in UK primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: A double-blind, two arm, randomized, placebo controlled trial in adults (≥ 18 years of age) presenting to primary care with acute sore throat (

Maternal alcohol intake prior to and during pregnancy and risk of adverse birth outcomes: evidence from a British cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is conflicting regarding the relationship between low maternal alcohol consumption and birth outcomes. This paper aimed to investigate the association between alcohol intake before and during pregnancy with birth weight and gestational age and to examine the effect of timing of exposure. METHODS: A prospective cohort in Leeds, UK, of 1303 pregnant women aged 18-45 years. Questionnaires assessed alcohol consumption before pregnancy and for the three trimesters separately. Categories of alcohol consumption were divided into ≤2 units/week and >2 units/week with a non-drinking category as referent. This was related to size at birth and preterm delivery, adjusting for confounders including salivary cotinine as a biomarker of smoking status. RESULTS: Nearly two-thirds of women before pregnancy and over half in the first trimester reported alcohol intakes above the Department of Health (UK) guidelines of ≤2 units/week. Associations with birth outcomes were strongest for intakes >2 units/week before pregnancy and in trimesters 1 and 2 compared to non-drinkers. Even women adhering to the guidelines in the first trimester were at significantly higher risk of having babies with lower birth weight, lower birth centile and preterm birth compared to non-drinkers, after adjusting for confounders (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We found the first trimester to be the period most sensitive to the effect of alcohol on the developing fetus. Women adhering to guidelines in this period were still at increased risk of adverse birth outcomes. Our findings suggest that women should be advised to abstain from alcohol when planning to conceive and throughout pregnancy.

Montelukast for postinfectious cough in adults: a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Postinfectious cough is common in primary care, but has no proven effective treatments. Cysteinyl leukotrienes are involved in the pathogenesis of postinfectious cough and whooping cough (pertussis). We investigated the effectiveness of montelukast, a cysteinyl leukotriene receptor antagonist, in the treatment of postinfectious cough. METHODS: In this randomised, placebo-controlled trial, non-smoking adults aged 16-49 years with postinfectious cough of 2-8 weeks' duration were recruited from 25 general practices in England. Patients were tested for pertussis (oral fluid anti-pertussis toxin IgG) and randomly assigned (1:1) to montelukast 10 mg daily or image-matched placebo for 2 weeks. Patients chose whether to continue study drug for another 2 weeks. The randomisation sequence was computer-generated and stratified by general practice. Patients, health-care professionals, and researchers were masked to treatment allocation. Effectiveness was assessed with the Leicester Cough Questionnaire to measure changes in cough-specific quality of life; the primary outcomes were changes in total score between baseline and two follow-up stages (2 weeks and 4 weeks). The primary analysis was by intention to treat with imputation by last observation carried forward. Recruitment closed on Sept 21, 2012, and follow-up has been completed. This trial is registered with EudraCT (2010-019647-19), UKCRN Portfolio (ID 8360), and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01279668). FINDINGS: From April 13, 2011, to Sept 21, 2012, we randomly assigned 276 patients to montelukast (n=137) or placebo (n=139). 70 (25%) patients had laboratory-confirmed pertussis. Improvements in cough-specific quality of life occurred in both groups after 2 weeks (montelukast: mean 2·7, 95% CI 2·2-3·3; placebo: 3·6, 2·9-4·3), but the difference between groups did not meet the minimum clinically important difference of 1·3 (mean difference -0·9, -1·7 to -0·04, p=0·04). This difference was not statistically significant in any sensitivity analyses. After 2 weeks, 192 of 259 participants from whom data were available elected to continue study drug (99 [77%] of 129 participants on montelukast; 93 [72%] of 130 on placebo). After 4 weeks, there were no significant between-group differences in cough-specific quality of life improvement (montelukast: 5·2, 4·5-5·9; placebo: 5·9, 5·1-6·7; mean difference -0·5, -1·5 to 0·6, p=0·38) or adverse event rates (21 (15%) of 137 patients on montelukast reported one or more adverse events; 31 (22%) of 139 on placebo; p=0·14). The most common adverse events reported were increased mucus production (montelukast, n=6; placebo, n=2), gastrointestinal disturbance (montelukast, n=3; placebo, n=5), and headache (montelukast, n=2; placebo, n=6). One serious adverse event was reported (placebo, n=1), which was unrelated to study drug (shortness of breath and throat tightness after severe coughing bouts). INTERPRETATION: Montelukast is not an effective treatment for postinfectious cough. However, the burden of postinfectious cough in primary care is high, making it an ideal setting for future antitussive treatment trials. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research School for Primary Care Research, UK.

Temporal growth and geographic variation in the use of laboratory tests by NHS general practices: using routine data to identify research priorities.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory tests are extensively used for diagnosis and monitoring in UK primary care. Test usage by GPs, and associated costs, have grown substantially in recent years. AIM: This study aimed to quantify temporal growth and geographic variation in utilisation of laboratory tests. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort study using data from general practices in the UK. METHOD: Data from the General Practice Research Database, including patient demographics, clinical details, and laboratory test results, were used to estimate rates of change in utilisation between 2005 and 2009, and identify tests with greatest inter-regional variation, by fitting random-effects Poisson regression models. The study also investigated indications for test requests, using diagnoses and symptoms recorded in the 2 weeks before each test. RESULTS: Around 660 000 tests were recorded in 230 000 person-years of follow-up. Test use increased by 24.2%, from 23 872 to 29 644 tests per 10 000 person-years, between 2005 and 2009. Tests with the largest increases were faecal occult blood (121%) and C-reactive protein (86%). There was substantial geographic variation in test utilisation; GPs in some regions requested tests such as plasma viscosity and cardiac enzymes at a rate more than three times the national average. CONCLUSION: Increases in the use of laboratory tests have substantial resource implications. Rapid increases in particular tests may be supported by evidence-based guidelines, but these are often vague about who should be tested, how often, and for how long. Substantial regional variation in test use may reflect uncertainty about diagnostic accuracy and appropriate indications for the laboratory test. There is a need for further research on the diagnostic accuracy, therapeutic impact, and effect on patient health outcomes of the most rapidly increasing and geographically variable tests.

Caffeine intake during pregnancy, late miscarriage and stillbirth.

Caffeine is a commonly consumed drug during pregnancy with the potential to affect the developing fetus. Findings from previous studies have shown inconsistent results. We recruited a cohort of 2,643 pregnant women, aged 18-45 years, attending two UK maternity units between 8 and 12 weeks gestation from September 2003 to June 2006. We used a validated tool to assess caffeine intake at different stages of pregnancy and related this to late miscarriage and stillbirth, adjusting for confounders, including salivary cotinine as a biomarker of smoking status. There was a strong association between caffeine intake in the first trimester and subsequent late miscarriage and stillbirth, adjusting for confounders. Women whose pregnancies resulted in late miscarriage or stillbirth had higher caffeine intakes (geometric mean = 145 mg/day; 95% CI: 85-249) than those with live births (103 mg/day; 95% CI: 98-108). Compared to those consuming < 100 mg/day, odds ratios increased to 2.2 (95% CI: 0.7-7.1) for 100-199 mg/day, 1.7 (0.4-7.1) for 200-299 mg/day, and 5.1 (1.6-16.4) for 300+ mg/day (P (trend) = 0.004). Greater caffeine intake is associated with increases in late miscarriage and stillbirth. Despite remaining uncertainty in the strength of association, our study strengthens the observational evidence base on which current guidance is founded.

Proteomic screening of a cell line model of esophageal carcinogenesis identifies cathepsin D and aldo-keto reductase 1C2 and 1B10 dysregulation in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) incidence is increasing rapidly and is associated with a poor prognosis. Identifying biomarkers of disease development and progression would be invaluable tools to inform clinical practice. Two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to screen 10 esophageal cell lines representing distinct stages in the development of esophageal cancer. Thirty-three proteins were identified by MALDI-TOF-MS which demonstrated differences in expression across the cell lines. Western blotting and qRT-PCR confirmed increased cathepsin D and aldo-keto reductases 1C2 and 1B10 expression in metaplastic and dysplastic cell lines. Expression of these proteins was further assessed in esophageal epithelium from patients with nonerosive (NERD) and erosive gastro-esophageal reflux disease, Barrett's esophagus (BE) and EA. When compared with normal epithelium of NERD patients, (i) cathepsin D mRNA levels demonstrated a stepwise increase in expression (p<0.05) in erosive, metaplastic and EA tissue; (ii) AKR1B10 expression increased (p<0.05) 3- and 9-fold in erosive and Barrett's epithelium, respectively; and (iii) AKR1C2 levels increased (p<0.05) in erosive and Barrett's epithelium, but were reduced (p<0.05) in EA. These proteins may contribute to disease development via effects on apoptosis, transport of bile acids and retinoid metabolism and should be considered as candidates for further mechanistic and clinical investigations.

Changes to methadone clearance during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: Measurement of plasma methadone concentration to investigate the rate of clearance of methadone prescribed for heroin dependence in the first, second and third trimesters of pregnancy. A secondary objective was to evaluate the outcome of pregnancy. METHODS: Longitudinal within subject study of nine pregnant opioid dependent subjects prescribed methadone at the Leeds Addiction Unit, an outpatient community based treatment centre. Plasma concentration versus time data for methadone was collected during each trimester and post-partum for our subjects. Data was available for the first and second trimesters for 4/9 cases. All but one of the subjects provided data during the third trimester and data post-partum was collected from three respondents. Measurements of methadone levels in plasma were carried out using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). RESULTS: Trough mean plasma methadone concentrations reduced as the pregnancies progressed from 0.12 mg/L (first trimester) to 0.07 mg/L (third trimester). The weight-adjusted clearance rates gradually increased from a mean of 0.17 to 0.21 L/hr/kg during pregnancy, although patterns differed substantially between the nine women. An assessment of relative clearance of methadone using two patients for whom we have had all three CL values (trimester 1-3) demonstrated notable change of CL (P = 0.056) over time. Eight of our subjects delivered (3 males), within two weeks of their due date the ninth (male) was premature (21 days). The mean length of gestation was 39.7 weeks (SD = 10 days) and none of the neonates met criterion for 'low birth weight' mean = 3094, SD = 368 g). Five neonates spent time (0.5-28 days) in a special care baby unit (SCUBU) and 4 of these displayed signs of methadone withdrawal. CONCLUSIONS: General Practitioners and hospital doctors should recognise the significant benefits of prescribing methadone for heroin-dependent women during pregnancy. We recommend that if a pregnant opioid user complains of methadone withdrawal symptoms (i.e. that the methadone dose does not "hold" them) the prescribing clinician takes this observation seriously and considers a more detailed assessment. Further work on key factors undergoing changes during pregnancy accounting for differences in methadone metabolism in the mother, fetus and neonate are required.

Smoking and female fecundity: the effect and importance of study design.

This review evaluates the evidence for a link between smoking and female fertility. Twenty-two primary papers and two reviews were found. All but three indicated a detrimental effect of smoking on reproduction despite varying considerably in their approach, definitions used and populations studied. The strength of association is small but statistically significant and a dose response relationship suggests the theory that smoking is causative. Poor design in particular and the failure to assess confounders weakened many studies and should be addressed in future studies.