Opioid therapy trajectories of patients with chronic non-cancer pain over 1 year of follow-up after initiation of short-acting opioid formulations.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared opioid utilization trajectories of persons initiating tramadol, short-acting hydrocodone, or short-acting oxycodone, and it characterized opioid dose trajectories and type of opioid in persistent opioid therapy subsamples. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adults with chronic non-cancer pain who were initiating opioid therapy was conducted with the IQVIA PharMetrics® Plus for Academics data (2008-2018). Continuous enrollment was required for 6 months before ("baseline") and 12 months after ("follow-up") the first opioid prescription ("index date"). Opioid therapy measures were assessed every 7 days over follow-up. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify trajectories for any opioid and total morphine milligram equivalent measures, and longitudinal latent class analysis was used for opioid therapy type. RESULTS: A total of 40 276 tramadol, 141 023 hydrocodone, and 45 221 oxycodone initiators were included. GBTM on any opioid therapy identified 3 latent trajectories: early discontinuers (tramadol 39.0%, hydrocodone 54.1%, oxycodone 61.4%), late discontinuers (tramadol 37.9%, hydrocodone 39.4%, oxycodone 33.3%), and persistent therapy (tramadol 6.7%, hydrocodone 6.5%, oxycodone 5.3%). An additional fourth trajectory, intermittent therapy (tramadol 16.4%), was identified for tramadol initiators. Of those on persistent therapy, 2687 individuals were on persistent therapy with tramadol, 9169 with hydrocodone, and 2377 with oxycodone. GBTM on opioid dose resulted in 6 similar trajectory groups in each persistent therapy group. Longitudinal latent class analysis on opioid therapy type identified 6 latent classes for tramadol and oxycodone and 7 classes for hydrocodone. CONCLUSION: Opioid therapy patterns meaningfully differed by the initial opioid prescribed, notably the presence of intermittent therapy among tramadol initiators and higher morphine milligram equivalents and prescribing of long-acting opioids among oxycodone initiators.

Analysis of Caregiver Burden Expressed in Social Media Discussions.

Almost 40% of US adults provide informal caregiving, yet research gaps remain around what burdens affect informal caregivers. This study uses a novel social media site, Reddit, to mine and better understand what online communities focus on as their caregiving burdens. These forums were accessed using an application programming interface, a machine learning classifier was developed to remove low information posts, and topic modeling was applied to the corpus. An expert panel summarized the forums' themes into ten categories. The largest theme extracted from Reddit's forums discussed the personal emotional toll of being a caregiver. This was followed by logistic issues while caregiving and caring for parents who have cancer. Smaller themes included approaches to end-of-life care, physical equipment needs when caregiving, and the use of wearables or technology to help monitor care recipients. The platform often discusses caregiving for parents which may reflect the age of Reddit's users. This study confirms that Reddit forums are used for caregivers to discuss the burdens associated with their role and the types of stress that can result from informal caregiving.

Implementation and Preliminary Effectiveness of a Multidisciplinary Telemedicine Pilot Initiative for Patients with Chronic Non-Cancer Pain in Rural and Underserved Areas at a Major Academic Medical Center.

Background: Arkansas lacks adequate access to high-quality pain care, as evidenced, in part, by it having the second highest opioid prescribing rate in the United States. To improve access to high-quality treatment of chronic pain, we developed the Arkansas Improving Multidisciplinary Pain Care and Treatment (AR-IMPACT) Telemedicine Clinic, a multidisciplinary and interprofessional team of specialists who provide evidence-based pain management for patients with chronic pain. Methods: We conducted a single-arm pilot trial of the AR-IMPACT Telemedicine Clinic with rural, university-affiliated primary care clinics. We assessed the AR-IMPACT Telemedicine Clinic using an implementation framework and preliminary effectiveness measures. Specifically, we assessed 5 of the 8 implementation outcomes of the framework (ie, penetration, adoption, acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility) using a mixed methods approach. To evaluate implementation outcomes, we used surveys, interviews, and administrative data. We used electronic health record data to measure preliminary effectiveness (ie, changes in average morphine milligram equivalents per day and pain and depression scores). Results: The AR-IMPACT team saw 23 patients that were referred by 13 primary care physicians from three rural, university-affiliated primary care clinics over one year. Of the 19 patients willing to participate in the pilot study, 12 identified as women, 31.6% identified as Black, and over 50% had less than a bachelor's level education. Patients rated the clinic positively with high overall satisfaction. Referring physicians indicated high levels of appropriateness, acceptability, and feasibility of the program. AR-IMPACT team members identified several barriers and facilitators to the feasibility of implementing the program. No changes in preliminary effectiveness measures were statistically significant. Conclusion: Overall, the AR-IMPACT Telemedicine Clinic obtained moderate penetration and adoption, was highly acceptable to patients, was highly acceptable and appropriate to providers, and was moderately feasible to providers and AR-IMPACT team members.

Factors Associated with Remote Patient Monitoring Services Provision by Hospitals and Health Care Systems in the United States.

Purpose: To assess the factors associated with offering remote patient monitoring (RPM) services. Methods: We integrated three datasets: (1) 2019-2020 Area Health Resource Files, (2) 2019 American Community Survey, and (3) 2019 American Hospitals Association annual survey using county Federal Information Processing Standards code to evaluate associations between hospital characteristics and county-level demographic factors with provision of (1) post-discharge, (2) chronic care, (3) other RPM services, and (4) any of these three RPM service categories. These outcomes were analyzed using multi-level, mixed-effects multivariate logistic regression modeling to account for county-level clustering of hospitals. Findings: Among 3,381 hospitals, 1,354 (40.0%) provided any RPM services. Being part of a clinically integrated network (CIN) and private, non-profit (vs. public) ownership were respectively associated with 104.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 69.4-146.8%; p < 0.001) and 30.4% (95% CI: 2.5-66.0%; p = 0.031) higher odds of providing any RPM services. Critical access hospital (CAH) designation, for-profit (vs. public) ownership, and location in the South (vs. Northeast) were associated with significantly lowering odds of providing any RPM services by 36.2% (95% CI: 14.2-52.6%; p = 0.003), 70.1% (95% CI: 56.0-79.6%; p < 0.001), and 34.0% (95% CI: 2.8-55.1%; p = 0.035), respectively. Similar trends were found with the various RPM service categories. Conclusions: The factors most associated with provision of any RPM services were hospital-level factors. Specifically, being part of a CIN and private, non-profit ownership had the highest positive associations with offering RPM services whereas location in the South and CAH designation had the strongest negative associations. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons behind these associations.

Development of a potential opioid misuse measure from administrative dispensing data and contrasting opioid misuse among individuals on long-term tramadol, long-term short-acting hydrocodone or long-term short-acting oxycodone therapy in Arkansas.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to: (1) construct and validate a composite potential opioid misuse score; and (2) compare potential opioid misuse among individuals prescribed long-term therapy on tramadol, short-acting hydrocodone or short-acting oxycodone. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database (APCD; 2013-2018) linked to Arkansas Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP; 2014-2017) and state death certificate data (2013-2018). The study subjects were ambulatory, cancer-free adults with incident long-term therapy on tramadol, short-acting hydrocodone or short-acting oxycodone. The number of opioid prescribers/pharmacies, cash payment for opioid prescriptions, overlapping prescribers/pharmacies and a composite misuse score (derived from opioid prescribers/pharmacies and cash payment) were assessed in two 180 day windows as potential measures of misuse. The composite score was developed based on associations observed with opioid overdose and opioid-related injuries. RESULTS: A total of 17,816 (tramadol), 23,660 (hydrocodone) and 4799 (oxycodone) persons were included. The composite score had modest discrimination for overdose (c-index = 0.65). In the first 180 day period, the average composite misuse scores were 1.28 (tramadol), 1.93 (hydrocodone) and 2.18 (oxycodone). Compared to long-term hydrocodone, long-term tramadol had lower misuse (IRR [95% CI]: 0.75 [0.73-0.76]), and long-term oxycodone had higher misuse (1.09 [1.07-1.11]) in adjusted analyses. Qualitatively similar associations were observed for nearly all individual component measures of misuse. CONCLUSION: A composite measure of potential opioid misuse had modest levels of discrimination in detecting overdose. In comparison to long-term hydrocodone therapy, long-term oxycodone had higher and tramadol had lower risk of potential opioid misuse.

Association between opioid therapy trajectories and potential opioid-related adverse health events.

PURPOSE: We identified associations between membership in seven group-based trajectories based on supply of filled opioid prescriptions and potential opioid-related adverse health events over a 720-day window. METHODS: We identified two veteran cohorts with chronic non-cancer pain who initiated treatment with long-term opioid therapy between 2008 and 2015, excluding those with prior substance use disorder (n = 373 941) or non-SUD, opioid-related adverse outcome (n = 405 631) diagnoses. Outcomes of interest included opioid use disorder, non-opioid drug use disorder, and alcohol use disorder for the first cohort; or accidents resulting in wounds or injuries, self-inflicted injuries, opioid-related accidents and overdoses, alcohol and non-opioid drug-related accidents and overdoses, and violence-related injuries for the second cohort. Using a cross-sectional design, Veterans were followed until the specific outcome of interest was diagnosed, they died, the study ended, or they were lost to follow up. Accelerated failure time models were estimated for each outcome. RESULTS: Membership in persistent moderate days covered and persistent modest days covered trajectories was associated with decreased risk of opioid use disorder (Moderate: θ = 0.59, 95%CI:0.54, 0.64; Modest: θ = 0.54, 95%CI:0.50, 0.59) and opioid overdose (Moderate: θ = 0.67,95%CI: 0.57, 0.79; Modest: θ = 0.72, 95%CI:0.61, 0.85) versus higher-utilizing persistent users. Rapid discontinuation was associated with decreased risk of opioid use disorder (θ = 0.86, 95% CI:0.77, 0.95) and opioid overdose (θ = 0.54, 95%CI:0.41, 0.71), but increased risk of alcohol use disorder (θ = 1.07, 95%CI:1.00, 1.15) and other substance use disorders. Delayed discontinuation or delayed reduction was associated with increased risk for most opioid related adverse health events. CONCLUSION: Persistent use trajectories with low levels of opioid utilization were associated with lower risks of potential opioid-related adverse health events.

Impact of transitioning from long-term to intermittent opioid therapy on the development of opioid-related adverse outcomes: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Increasing pressures exist to reduce or discontinue opioid use among patients currently on long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). It is essential to understand the potential effects of opioid reduction. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted among veterans with chronic pain and on LTOT. Using 1:1 propensity score-matched samples of veterans switching to intermittent opioid therapy and those continuing LTOT, we examined the development of subsequent substance use disorders (SUD composite; individual SUD types: opioid, non-opioid drug, and alcohol use disorders) and opioid-related adverse outcomes (ORAO composite; individual ORAO types: accidents resulting in wounds/injuries, opioid-related and alcohol/non-opioid medication-related accidents and overdoses, self-inflicted and violence-related injuries). Sensitivity analyses were conducted using logistic regression with stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (SIPTW) and instrumental variable (IV) models. RESULTS: A total of 29,293 veterans switching to intermittent therapy were matched to veterans continuing LTOT. With matched samples, no differences were found in composite SUDs and ORAOs between the groups. With SIPTW, veterans switching to intermittent opioid therapy had higher odds of composite SUDs and ORAOs (SUDs aOR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.07,1.17; ORAOs aOR=1.05, 95%CI:1.00,1.09). IV models found lower risks for composite SUDs and ORAOs among veterans switching to intermittent opioid therapy (SUDs: ß = -0.38, 95%CI:-0.63,-0.13; ORAOs: ß = -0.27, 95%CI:-0.50,-0.04). CONCLUSIONS: There were no consistent associations between transitioning patients from LTOT to intermittent opioid therapy and the risk of SUDs and ORAOs.

Video-Based, Patient-Focused Opioid Education in the Perioperative Period Increases Self-Perceived Opioid-Related Knowledge: A Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a video-based, patient-focused opioid education tool delivered in the perioperative period would decrease acute and chronic post-operative opioid prescription dispensations and increase self-rated knowledge about opioids. METHODS: We enrolled 110 patients with no reported opioid use in the previous 30 days, undergoing ambulatory surgery for breast, orthopedic, gynecologic, or other outpatient procedures for which opioids would be prescribed. Patients were randomized to receive either post-operative opioid education by the surgical team (control arm) or pre-operative education via a novel 5-minute video plus post-operative education by the surgical team (intervention arm). All patients received follow-up phone calls on post-operative day (POD) 7 to assess self-rated knowledge of opioids on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being most informed, and self-reported opioid use (primary outcome). Arkansas Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (AR PDMP) data were obtained to assess opioid dispensations at POD 90-150 days. RESULTS: Seventy-seven percent of participants completed POD7 survey. Participants in the intervention arm rated their knowledge of opioids after surgery significantly higher than those in the control arm (p=0.013). Data from the AR PDMP reveal trends (non-significant) that show increased use of opioids in the control group when compared to the video intervention group at POD 30 (88.7% vs 76%) and POD 90-150 (22.6% vs 10%). CONCLUSION: Video-based, patient-focused opioid education can be effectively implemented in a large university hospital during the perioperative period and is effective for increasing a patient's perception of opioid-related knowledge. A fully powered, randomized control trial is needed to further explore observed trends and determine if this novel tool can decrease chronic post-operative opioid dispensations.

Trajectories of Opioid Coverage After Long-Term Opioid Therapy Initiation Among a National Cohort of US Veterans.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to identify the trajectories that patients take after initiating long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort design, veterans with chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) initiating LTOT were identified. Group-based trajectory models were used to identify opioid therapy trajectories based on days of opioid supply (primary outcome) and average daily morphine milligram equivalent dose (AMME; secondary outcome) in each 180-day period following initiation of LTOT. RESULTS: A total of 438,398 veterans with CNCP initiated LTOT. Nine trajectories were identified: 33.7% with persistent, high days covered, 17.7% with persistent, moderate days covered, 16.6% with slow, persistent days-covered reduction, 2.4% with days-covered reduction followed by increase, 4.6% with delayed days-covered reduction, 4.1% with rapid days-covered reduction, 10.9% with moderate-paced discontinuation, 3.4% with delayed discontinuation, and 6.5% with rapid discontinuation. Patients following discontinuation trajectories were more likely to be younger, persons of color, use more supportive services (eg, physical therapy), and received less opioid days' supply and lower doses prior to initiating LTOT as compared to patients following persistent opioid days-covered trajectories. AMME trajectories were similar to days-covered trajectories. CONCLUSION: Among persons initiating LTOT, nine opioid trajectories emerged which can be broadly characterized into three main trajectory groups: persistent opioid therapy (2 trajectories), reductions in opioid therapy (4 trajectories), and discontinuation (3 trajectories). A majority of patients (51.4%) maintained persistent opioid therapy. Further research is needed to assess the risks of opioid-related adverse outcomes among the identified trajectories.

Impact of opioid dose escalation on the development of substance use disorders, accidents, self-inflicted injuries, opioid overdoses and alcohol and non-opioid drug-related overdoses: a retrospective cohort study.

AIM: To understand the potential harmful effects of dose escalation among patients with chronic, non-cancer pain (CNCP) on chronic opioid therapy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: United States Veterans Healthcare Administration. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans with CNCP and on chronic opioid therapy were identified using data from fiscal years 2008-15. The Veteran sample was approximately 90% male and 70% white. MEASUREMENTS: Dose escalators [increase of > 20% average morphine milligram equivalent (MME) daily dose] were compared with dose maintainers (change of ±20% average MME daily dose). A composite measure of subsequent substance use disorders (SUDs: opioid, non-opioid and alcohol use disorders) and opioid-related adverse outcomes (AOs: accidents resulting in wounds/injuries, opioid-related and alcohol and non-opioid medication-related accidents and overdoses, self-inflicted injuries) as well as the individual SUDs and AOs was examined. The primary analyses were conducted among a 1 : 1 matched sample of escalators and maintainers matched on propensity score and index date. Propensity scores were generated using demographic characteristics, medical comorbidities, medication and health-care utilization characteristics. Subgroup analyses were conducted by quartile of the propensity score. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using adjusted logistic regression, logistic regression using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (SIPTW) and instrumental variable (IV) models using geographic variation in opioid dose escalation as the IV. FINDINGS: There were 32 420 maintainers and 20 767 escalators resulting in 19 358 (93.2%) matched pairs. Composite AOs [odds ratio (OR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23, 1.40], composite SUDs (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.22, 1.41) and individual SUD and AO subtypes were higher among dose escalators, except for opioid-related accidents and overdoses and violence-related injuries. Subgroup analyses within the propensity score quartiles found similar results. Sensitivity analyses with the adjusted and SIPTW logistic regressions found similar results to the primary analyses for all outcomes except for opioid-related accidents and overdoses, which were found to be significantly higher among escalators. Sensitivity analyses with IV models provided mixed results with SUDs and the individual types of AOs. CONCLUSION: Escalating the opioid dose for those with chronic, non-cancer pain is associated with increased risks of substance use disorder and opioid-related adverse outcomes.

Impact of Medical Marijuana Legalization on Opioid Use, Chronic Opioid Use, and High-risk Opioid Use.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of medical marijuana legalization with prescription opioid utilization. METHODS: A 10% sample of a nationally representative database of commercially insured population was used to gather information on opioid use, chronic opioid use, and high-risk opioid use for the years 2006-2014. Adults with pharmacy and medical benefits for the entire calendar year were included in the population for that year. Multilevel logistic regression analysis, controlling for patient, person-year, and state-level factors, were used to determine the impact of medical marijuana legalization on the three opioid use measures. Sub-group analysis among cancer-free adults and cancer-free adults with at least one chronic non-cancer pain condition in the particular year were conducted. Alternate regression models were used to test the robustness of our results including a fixed effects model, an alternate definition for start date for medical marijuana legalization, a person-level analysis, and a falsification test. RESULTS: The final sample included a total of 4,840,562 persons translating into 15,705,562 person years. Medical marijuana legalization was found to be associated with a lower odds of any opioid use: OR = 0.95 (0.94-0.96), chronic opioid use: OR = 0.93 (0.91-0.95), and high-risk opioid use: OR = 0.96 (0.94-0.98). The findings were similar in both the sub-group analyses and all the sensitivity analyses. The falsification tests showed no association between medical marijuana legalization and prescriptions for antihyperlipidemics (OR = 1.00; CI 0.99-1.01) or antihypertensives (OR = 1.00; CI 0.99-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: In states where marijuana is available through medical channels, a modestly lower rate of opioid and high-risk opioid prescribing was observed. Policy makers could consider medical marijuana legalization as a tool that may modestly reduce chronic and high-risk opioid use. However, further research assessing risk versus benefits of medical marijuana legalization and head to head comparisons of marijuana versus opioids for pain management is required.

Evaluation of opioid use among patients with back disorders and arthritis.

PURPOSE: Long-term opioid use for chronic pain has increased, but limited evidence exists on its benefits. Evaluation of long-term benefits in pain is based on patient-reported measures such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study examined the long-term effects of opioid use on HRQoL and its subdomains in patients with back pain or arthritis by comparing opioid users to non-opioid users for three metrics: (1) any opioid use, (2) duration of opioid use, and (3) average daily morphine equivalent dose. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of cancer-free adults with chronic back pain or arthritis was selected. Using the 12-Item Short Form Survey, HRQoL measures of Mental Component Score (MCS), Physical Component Score (PCS), and individual subdomains were assessed at baseline and 1 year later. Opioid users were matched to non-opioid users in a 1:1 greedy match using propensity scores estimated based on many patient demographics and baseline HRQoL measures. RESULTS: At year one, PCS was significantly lower among opioid users, mostly driven by bodily pain subdomain; MCS was not different. Short-term opioid users (< 1 month) had higher MCS while long-term users (≥ 1 month) had lower PCS. Low-dose [< 20 morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day] opioid use was associated with lower PCS, while no difference was found between high dose (≥ 20 MME/day) and non-opioid users. However, most differences were not clinically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term opioid use is not associated with improvements in HRQoL. Clinicians should carefully evaluate the need for opioid use, especially long-term use in managing chronic back pain and arthritis.

Factors Influencing Long-Term Opioid Use Among Opioid Naive Patients: An Examination of Initial Prescription Characteristics and Pain Etiologies.

The relationships between the initial opioid prescription characteristics and pain etiology with the probability of opioid discontinuation were explored in this retrospective cohort study using health insurance claims data from a nationally representative database of commercially insured patients in the United States. We identified 1,353,902 persons aged 14 years and older with no history of cancer or substance abuse, with new opioid use episodes and categorized them into 11 mutually exclusive pain etiologies. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated to identify factors associated with time to opioid discontinuation. After accounting for losses to follow-up, the probability of continued opioid use at 1 year was 5.3% across all subjects. Patients with chronic pain had the highest probability for continued opioid use followed by patients with inpatient admissions. Patients prescribed doses ≥90 morphine milligram equivalents (hazard ratio [HR] = .91; 95% confidence interval [CI], .91-.92), initiated with tramadol (HR = .89; 95% CI, .89-.90) or long-acting opioids (HR = .79; 95% CI, .77-.82) were less likely to discontinue opioids. Increasing days' supply of the first prescription was consistently associated with a lower likelihood of opioid discontinuation (HRs, CIs: 3-4 days' supply = .70, .70-.71; 5-7 days' supply = .48, .47-.48; 8-10 days' supply = .37, .37-.38; 11-14 days' supply = .32, .31-.33; 15-21 days' supply = .29, .28-.29; ≥22 days supplied = .20, .19-.20). The direction of this relationship was consistent across all pain etiologies. Clinicians should initiate patients with the lowest supply of opioids to mitigate unintentional long-term opioid use. PERSPECTIVE: This study shows that characteristics of the first opioid prescription, particularly duration of the prescription, are significant predictors of continued opioid use irrespective of the indication for an opioid prescription. These data should encourage prescribers to initiate patients using the minimum effective opioid dose and duration to reduce unintended long-term use and could motivate policies that restrict the initial supply of opioids.

Reliability and Validity of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-12 Version 2 (SF-12v2) in Adults with Non-Cancer Pain.

Limited evidence exists on how non-cancer pain (NCP) affects an individual's health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to validate the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-12 Version 2 (SF-12v2), a generic measure of HRQoL, in a NCP cohort using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Longitudinal Files. The SF Mental Component Summary (MCS12) and SF Physical Component Summary (PCS12) were tested for reliability (internal consistency and test-retest reliability) and validity (construct: convergent and discriminant; criterion: concurrent and predictive). A total of 15,716 patients with NCP were included in the final analysis. The MCS12 and PCS12 demonstrated high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha and Mosier's alpha > 0.8), and moderate and high test-retest reliability, respectively (MCS12 intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC): 0.64; PCS12 ICC: 0.73). Both scales were significantly associated with a number of chronic conditions (p < 0.05). The PCS12 was strongly correlated with perceived health (r = 0.52) but weakly correlated with perceived mental health (r = 0.25). The MCS12 was moderately correlated with perceived mental health (r = 0.42) and perceived health (r = 0.33). Increasing PCS12 and MCS12 scores were significantly associated with lower odds of reporting future physical and cognitive limitations (PCS12: OR = 0.90 95%CI: 0.89-0.90, MCS12: OR = 0.94 95%CI: 0.93-0.94). In summary, the SF-12v2 is a reliable and valid measure of HRQoL for patients with NCP.

Characteristics of Initial Prescription Episodes and Likelihood of Long-Term Opioid Use - United States, 2006-2015.

Because long-term opioid use often begins with treatment of acute pain (1), in March 2016, the CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain included recommendations for the duration of opioid therapy for acute pain and the type of opioid to select when therapy is initiated (2). However, data quantifying the transition from acute to chronic opioid use are lacking. Patient records from the IMS Lifelink+ database were analyzed to characterize the first episode of opioid use among commercially insured, opioid-naïve, cancer-free adults and quantify the increase in probability of long-term use of opioids with each additional day supplied, day of therapy, or incremental increase in cumulative dose. The largest increments in probability of continued use were observed after the fifth and thirty-first days on therapy; the second prescription; 700 morphine milligram equivalents cumulative dose; and first prescriptions with 10- and 30-day supplies. By providing quantitative evidence on risk for long-term use based on initial prescribing characteristics, these findings might inform opioid prescribing practices.