Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening on Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A 9-Year Report of the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China (ESECC) Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening against incidence of and mortality from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: From January 2012 to September 2016, we conducted a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial involving permanent residents age 45-69 years in a high-risk region for ESCC in northern China. A total of 668 targeted villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the screening group (offered Lugol's chromoendoscopy) or control group (no screening). Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality between the two groups. The per-protocol analysis adjusted for nonadherence to the screening procedure. RESULTS: A total of 33,847 participants were included in the analysis: 17,104 in the screening group, 15,165 (88.7%) of whom underwent screening, and 16,743 in the control group. During a maximum follow-up of 9 years, EC incidence in the screening and control groups were 60.9 and 72.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; mortality in the screening and control groups were 29.7 and 32.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the incidence and mortality of the screening group reduced by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.09]) and 18% (aHR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.26]), respectively, in the intention-to-treat analysis; and by 22% (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.10]) and 21% (aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.30]), respectively, in the per-protocol analysis. CONCLUSION: With a 9-year follow-up, our trial suggests that chromoendoscopic screening induces modest reductions in EC incidence and mortality. A more efficient strategy for EC screening and subsequent patient management should be established to guarantee the effectiveness of endoscopic screening.

Development and external validation of a quantitative diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions in clinical opportunistic screening: A multicenter real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical opportunistic screening is a cost-effective cancer screening modality. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use diagnostic model serving as a risk stratification tool for identification of individuals with malignant gastric lesions for opportunistic screening. METHODS: We developed a questionnaire-based diagnostic model using a joint dataset including two clinical cohorts from northern and southern China. The cohorts consisted of 17,360 outpatients who had undergone upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination in endoscopic clinics. The final model was derived based on unconditional logistic regression, and predictors were selected according to the Akaike information criterion. External validation was carried out with 32,614 participants from a community-based randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: This questionnaire-based diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions had eight predictors, including advanced age, male gender, family history of gastric cancer, low body mass index, unexplained weight loss, consumption of leftover food, consumption of preserved food, and epigastric pain. This model showed high discriminative power in the development set with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.831). External validation of the model in the general population generated an AUC of 0.696 (95% CI: 0.570-0.822). This model showed an ideal ability for enriching prevalent malignant gastric lesions when applied to various scenarios. CONCLUSION: This easy-to-use questionnaire-based model for diagnosis of prevalent malignant gastric lesions may serve as an effective prescreening tool in clinical opportunistic screening for gastric cancer.

Surgical quality determines the long-term survival superiority of right over left thoracic esophagectomy for localized esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: a real-world multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to compare the long-term overall survival (OS) of right versus left thoracic esophagectomy, and to evaluate whether surgical quality impacts comparison result. BACKGROUND: Controversy regarding the optimal thoracic esophagectomy approach persists for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). No study has assessed the effect of surgical quality in comparison between right and left approaches. METHODS: The authors consecutively recruited 5556 operable ESCC patients from two high-volume centers in China, of whom 2220 and 3336 received right and left thoracic esophagectomy, respectively. Cumulative sum was used to evaluate the learning curve for operation time of right approach, as the indicator of surgical proficiency. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 83.1 months, right approach, harvesting more lymph nodes, tended to have a better OS than left approach (Mean: 23.8 vs. 16.7 nodes; adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.93, 95% CI: 0.85-1.02). Subset analysis by the extent of lymphadenectomy demonstrated that right approach with adequate lymphadenectomy (≥15 nodes) resulted in statistically significant OS benefit compared with left approach (adjusted HR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.77-0.95), but not with limited lymphadenectomy. Subset analysis by surgical proficiency showed that proficient right approach conferred a better OS than left approach (adjusted HR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.64-0.88), but improficient right approach did not have such survival advantage. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical quality plays a crucial role in survival comparison between surgical procedures. Right thoracic esophagectomy performed with adequate lymphadenectomy and surgical proficiency, conferring more favorable survival than left approach, should be recommended as the preferred surgical procedure for localized ESCC.

Molecular characterization of stable QTL and putative candidate genes for grain zinc and iron concentrations in two related wheat populations.

KEY MESSAGE: Major QTL for grain zinc and iron concentrations were identified on the long arm of chromosomes 2D and 6D. Gene-based KASP markers were developed for putative candidate genes TaIPK1-2D and TaNAS10-6D. Micronutrient malnutrition is one of the most common public health problems in the world. Biofortification, the most attractive and sustainable solution to surmount malnutrition requires the development of micronutrient enriched new crop cultivars. In this study, two recombinant inbred line (RIL) populations, ZM175/XY60 and ZM175/LX987, were used to identify QTL for grain zinc concentration (GZnC), grain iron concentration (GFeC) and thousand grain weight (TGW). Eight QTL for GZnC, six QTL for GFeC and five QTL for TGW were detected. Three QTL on chromosomes 2DL and 4BS and chromosome 6A showed pleiotropic effects on all three traits. The 4BS and 6A QTL also increased plant height and might be Rht-B1a and Rht25a, respectively. The 2DL locus within a suppressed recombination region was identified in both RIL populations and the favorable allele simultaneously increasing GZnC, GFeC and TGW was contributed by XY60 and LX987. A QTL on chromosome 6DL associated only with GZnC was detected in ZM175/XY60 and was validated in JD8/AK58 RILs using kompetitive allele-specific PCR (KASP) marker K_AX-110119937. Both the 2DL and 6DL QTL were new loci for GZnC. Based on gene annotations, sequence variations and expression profiles, the phytic acid biosynthesis gene TaIPK1-2D and nicotianamine synthase gene TaNAS10-6D were predicted as candidate genes. Their gene-based KASP markers were developed and validated in a cultivar panel of 343 wheat accessions. This study investigated the genetic basis of GZnC and GFeC and provided valuable candidate genes and markers for breeding Zn- and Fe-enriched wheat.

Postoperative serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen and carcinoembryonic antigen predict overall survival in surgical patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Tumor markers are routinely used in clinical practice. However, for resectable patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), they are applied infrequently as their prognostic significance is incompletely understood. Methods: This historical cohort study included 2769 patients with resected ESCC from 2011 to 2018 in a high-risk area in northern China. Their clinical data were extracted from the Electronic Medical Record. Survival analysis of eight common tumor markers was performed with multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results: With a median follow-up of 39.5 months, 901 deaths occurred. Among the eight target markers, elevated postoperative serum SCC (Squamous cell carcinoma antigen) and CEA (Carcinoembryonic antigen) predicted poor overall survival (SCC HRadjusted: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.70-4.17; CEA HRadjusted: 2.36, 95% CI: 1.14-4.86). In contrast, preoperative levels were not significantly associated with survival. Stratified analysis also demonstrated poorer survival in seropositive groups of postoperative SCC and CEA within each TNM stage. The above associations were generally robust using different quantiles of concentrations above the upper limit of the clinical normal range as alternative cutoffs. Regarding temporal trends of serum levels, SCC and CEA were similar. Their concentrations fell rapidly after surgery and thereafter remained relatively stable. Conclusion: Postoperative serum SCC and CEA levels predict the overall survival of ESCC surgical patients. More importance should be attached to the use of these markers in clinical applications.

How should extra-large Lugol-unstained lesions of the esophagus be treated? Results from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend only severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions of the esophageal squamous epithelium for clinical intervention. However, the histopathologic diagnosis derived from tissue biopsies may be subject to underestimation of severity. METHODS: 1073 participants from whom biopsies were taken at baseline chromoendoscopic examination in a population-based screening trial were enrolled in this study. The size of the Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) was mainly analyzed. The outcome was defined as SDA lesions either identified at baseline screening, or during follow-up, collectively referred to as the cumulative risk of SDA. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-six SDA cases were identified in the study period. Participants with large LULs had a high cumulative incidence of SDA (cumulative incidence16-20mm : 55.88%; cumulative incidence>20mm : 76.92%) in the median of 7-year duration. LULs of large size were significantly associated with a higher cumulative risk of SDA, regardless of the pathologic diagnosis (adjusted OR16-20mmvs.≤5mm = 21.02, 95% CI: 7.56-58.47; adjusted OR>20mmvs.≤5mm = 33.62, 95% CI: 11.79-95.87). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest physician-patient shared decision-making regarding clinical treatment or intensive surveillance should be carried out for LULs >20 mm in the esophagus, regardless of the histologic diagnosis. For those with LULs of 16-20 mm, intensive surveillance would also best be considered.

Lugol-unstained lesions location in the esophagus affects the detection rate of malignancy: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Lugol-unstained lesion (LUL) location on the detection yield, which may help the endoscopist select targets for biopsy. METHODS: We enrolled 1064 subjects who had LULs at the baseline screening of a population-based randomized controlled trial. There were 1166 LULs with recorded location and pathologic diagnosis, and these were used for analysis. The detection rate of severe dysplasia and above (SDA) was calculated as the number of LULs identified as SDA divided by the number of LULs biopsied. Logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was applied to evaluate the association between the location of a given LUL and the risk of the LUL being SDA. RESULTS: The detection rate of SDA for LULs located in the lower, middle, and upper esophagus increased from 5.9% and 10.9% to 16.7%. LUL location was significantly associated with having SDA (adjusted odds ratio (OR)upper vs. lower  = 2.88, 95% confidential interval (CI) = 1.48-5.60; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.96-2.76), and the association was stronger in subgroups with a family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (adjusted ORupper vs. lower  = 9.72, 95% CI = 2.57-36.69; adjusted ORmiddle vs. lower  = 3.76, 95% CI = 0.93-15.21). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that more attention should be paid by endoscopists to LULs in the upper and middle esophagus, particularly for individuals with a family history of ESCC.

An evaluation of 20-year survival of radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma as first-line treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the changes in clinical characteristics, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) by investigating a 20-year cohort of patients with HCC who underwent RFA treatment. METHODS: From 2000 to 2020, 505 consecutive patients with HCC underwent ultrasound-guided percutaneous RFA as first-line therapy at a tertiary cancer hospital. We divided the cohort according to the time when hepatitis-B antiviral therapy was covered by national medical insurance coverage (early 2011), including the first decade (2000-2010) and second decade (2011-2020). The prognostic factors for OS were analyzed by the Cox proportional hazard model. OS and PFS in different groups were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. To reduce selection bias, matched groups of patients were selected using the propensity score matching (PSM) method. RESULTS: In total, 726 RFA sessions were performed to treat 867 HCC lesions. Patients treated in the second decade were younger (p =.047), had smaller tumors (p <.001), had lower Child-Pugh scores (p <.001), and had a higher proportion of antiviral treatment (p <.001). A total of 96.0% of patients achieved technical efficacy from the initial RFA. After PSM analysis, improved PFS was found for the second decade (median, 68 vs. 49 months, p =.003), but no significant difference in OS was observed between the two groups (median, 71 vs. 65 months, p =.20). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that improved PFS was achieved in patients with HCC receiving RFA as first-line treatment in the second decade. However, long-term OS was not significantly increased compared to the first decade suggesting that while RFA treatment has improved, it still might not substantially affect OS results.

Functional analysis of polyphenol oxidase 1 gene in common wheat.

Polyphenol oxidase (PPO) activity is a major cause of the undesirable brown color of wheat-based products. Ppo1, a major gene for PPO activity, was cloned based on sequence homology in previous studies; however, its function and regulation mechanism remain unclear. In this study, the function and genetic regulation of Ppo1 were analyzed using RNA interference (RNAi) and Targeting Induced Local Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) technology, and superior mutants were identified. Compared with the control, the level of Ppo1 transcript in RNAi transgenic lines was drastically decreased by 15.5%-60.9% during grain development, and PPO activity was significantly reduced by 12.9%-20.4%, confirming the role of Ppo1 in PPO activity. Thirty-two Ppo1 mutants were identified in the ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS)-mutagenized population, including eight missense mutations, 16 synonymous mutations, and eight intron mutations. The expression of Ppo1 was reduced significantly by 6.7%-37.1% and 10.1%-54.4% in mutants M092141 (G311S) and M091098 (G299R), respectively, in which PPO activity was decreased by 29.7% and 28.8%, respectively, indicating that mutation sites of two mutants have important effects on PPO1 function. Sequence and structure analysis revealed that the two sites were highly conserved among 74 plant species, where the frequency of glycine was 94.6% and 100%, respectively, and adjacent to the entrance of the hydrophobic pocket of the active site. The M092141 and M091098 mutants can be used as important germplasms to develop wheat cultivars with low grain PPO activity. This study provided important insights into the molecular mechanism of Ppo1 and the genetic improvement of wheat PPO activity.

Prevalence of incidental colorectal cancer and polyps in autopsies of different populations: a systematic review with meta-regression analysis.

The colorectal cancer (CRC) and polyps incidentally found in autopsies represent the lesions that have not actually caused problems throughout the lifetime and thus may not need to be removed during screening. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of incidental CRC (iCRC) and polyps in autopsies of different populations. A systematic search was performed on 19 August 2022 to identify autopsy studies that provided data on prevalence of iCRC, adenomatous polyps, hyperplastic polyps, and/or all polyps combined. The prevalence was pooled with the random-effects model. Subgroup and multivariable meta-regression analyses were conducted to investigate the heterogeneity. Forty-three eligible studies including 59,656 autopsies were identified, with 94% conducted before 1990 when CRC screening was uncommon or not available. The pooled prevalence was 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-1.2%) for iCRC, 18.4% (95% CI, 13.3-24.1%) for adenomatous polyps, 16.4% (95% CI, 8.7-25.9%) for hyperplastic polyps, 26.3% (95% CI, 15.4-38.8%) for all polyps combined, and 29.9% (95% CI, 14.8-47.6%) for iCRC plus polyps. The prevalence of iCRC was higher (1.2%) in white-predominant populations but lower (0.4%) after excluding low-quality studies. Multivariable analyses showed that the prevalence of polyps was higher in white-predominant populations and higher-quality studies, increased with age, and showed a downward trend from "before 1975" through "after 1985". In conclusion, the prevalence of iCRC in autopsies was not low, considering the average lifetime risk of CRC, while incidental polyps were common. Both varied greatly in different populations. These findings may have implications when weighing the benefits and harms of screening.

Absence of Lugol staining indicates initiation of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A combined genomic and epidemiologic study.

The genomic characteristics during the carcinogenic process of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remain largely unknown. We report here the genomic characteristics of 106 esophageal tissues of various stages from a population-based screening cohort in China ("Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China" trial) and 57 ESCC tissues from a local hospital. A significant increase in somatic mutation and copy number alterations is observed in the non-dysplastic Lugol unstaining lesions (ND-LULs). Extensive clonal expansion has emerged in the ND-LULs to an extent similar to that in higher-stage lesions. The burden of genomic alterations correlates with the size of LULs in the ND-LULs. 8-year follow-up shows that ND-LULs harbor an increased risk of progression to ESCC (adjusted IRR6-10 mm vs. none = 4.66, adjusted IRR>10 mm vs. none = 40.70), and the risk is correlated with LUL size for both non-dysplastic and dysplastic lesions. Lugol unstaining can be the initial stage in the carcinogenic process of ESCC.

Multiple Lugol-unstained lesions predict higher cumulative risk of malignance in the esophagus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The impact of the presence of multiple Lugol-unstained lesions (LULs) in the esophagus on the risk of having severe dysplasia and above (SDA) lesions among asymptomatic individuals is unknown. METHODS: We collected demographic factors, behavioral variables, and features of LULs from 1073 participants who were biopsied at baseline endoscopic screening in a population-based screening trial, and these individuals were followed over a median time of 7 years. Outcome events were defined as SDA identified at screening, at reexamination, or during follow-up. "Multiple LULs" were defined as ≥ 2 LULs found in the entirety of the esophagus. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effect of "multiple LULs" on the cumulative risk of SDA. RESULTS: There were 147 SDA cases in the current study. After adjustment for potential risk factors and endoscopic features of LULs, the presence of "multiple LULs" slightly increased the cumulative risk of having SDA with no statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.85, 1.88]). Further stratified analysis showed that this association was strong among subjects with small LULs (≤ 5 mm) (adjusted OR = 3.29; 95% CI [1.39, 7.79]). However, no such association was observed in subjects with larger LULs (adjusted OR = 0.99; 95% CI [0.63, 1.55], P interaction  = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of "multiple small LULs (≤ 5 mm)" in chromoendoscopy indicates a higher cumulative risk of having SDA in the esophagus. We recommend biopsies be taken and surveillance be maintained at a more active level in individuals with relatively small but multiple LULs.

The pathway of melatonin biosynthesis in common wheat (Triticum aestivum).

Melatonin (Mel) is a multifunctional biomolecule found in both animals and plants. In plants, the biosynthesis of Mel from tryptophan (Trp) has been delineated to comprise of four consecutive reactions. However, while the genes encoding these enzymes in rice are well characterized no systematic evaluation of the overall pathway has, as yet, been published for wheat. In the current study, the relative contents of six Mel-pathway-intermediates including Trp, tryptamine (Trm), serotonin (Ser), 5-methoxy tryptamine (5M-Trm), N-acetyl serotonin (NAS) and Mel, were determined in 24 independent tissues spanning the lifetime of wheat. These studies indicated that Trp was the most abundant among the six metabolites, followed by Trm and Ser. Next, the candidate genes expressing key enzymes involved in the Mel pathway were explored by means of metabolite-based genome-wide association study (mGWAS), wherein two TDC genes, a T5H gene and one SNAT gene were identified as being important for the accumulation of Mel pathway metabolites. Moreover, a 463-bp insertion within the T5H gene was discovered that may be responsible for variation in Ser content. Finally, a ASMT gene was found via sequence alignment against its rice homolog. Validations of these candidate genes were performed by in vitro enzymatic reactions using proteins purified following recombinant expression in Escherichia coli, transient gene expression in tobacco, and transgenic approaches in wheat. Our results thus provide the first comprehensive investigation into the Mel pathway metabolites, and a swift candidate gene identification via forward-genetics strategies, in common wheat.

Minimally Invasive or Open Esophagectomy for Treatment of Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma? Answer From a Real-world Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term and short-term outcomes of MIE compared with OE in localized ESCC patients in real-world settings. BACKGROUND: MIE is an alternative to OE, despite the limited evidence regarding its effect on long-term survival. METHODS: We recruited 5822 consecutive patients with resectable ESCC in 2 typical high-volume centers in southern and northern China, 1453 of whom underwent MIE. Propensity score-based overlap weighted regression adjusted for multifaceted confounding factors was used to compare outcomes in the MIE and OE groups. RESULTS: Five-year OS was 62.7% in the MIE group and 57.7% in the OE group. The overlap weighted Cox regression showed slightly better OS in the MIE group (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.06). Although duration of surgery was longer and treatment cost higher in the MIE group than in the OE group, the number of lymph nodes harvested was larger, the proportion of intraoperative blood transfusions lower, and postoperative complications less in the MIE group. 30-day (risk ratio [RR] 0.77, 0.381.55) and 90-day (RR 0.79, 0.46-1.35) mortality were lower in the MIE group versus the OE group, although not statistically significant. These findings were consistent across different analytic approaches and subgroups, notably in the subset of ESCC patients with large tumors. CONCLUSIONS: MIE can be performed safely with OS comparable to OE for patients with localized ESCC, indicating MIE may be recommended as the primary surgical approach for resectable ESCC in health facilities with requisite technical capacity.

Is Adjuvant Therapy a Better Option for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Esophagectomy? A Prognosis Prediction Model Based on Multicenter Real-World Data.

OBJECTIVE: To construct a prediction model for more precise evaluation of prognosis which will allow personalized treatment recommendations for adjuvant therapy in patients following resection of ESCC. BACKGROUND: Marked heterogeneity of patient prognosis and limited evidence regarding survival benefit of various adjuvant therapy regimens pose challenges in the clinical treatment of ESCC. METHODS: Based on comprehensive clinical data obtained from 4129 consecutive patients with resected ESCC in a high-risk region in China, we identified predictors for overall survival through a 2-phase selection based on Cox proportional hazard regression and minimization of Akaike information criterion. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated in 1815 patients from a non-high-risk region in China. RESULTS: The final model incorporates 9 variables: age, sex, primary site, T stage, N stage, number of lymph nodes harvested, tumor size, adjuvant treatment, and hemoglobin level. A significant interaction was also observed between N stage and adjuvant treatment. N1+ stage patients were likely to benefit from addition of adjuvant therapy as opposed to surgery alone, but adjuvant therapy did not improve overall survival for N0 stage patients. The C -index of the model was 0.729 in the training cohort, 0.723 after bootstrapping, and 0.695 in the external validation cohort. This model outperformed the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system in prognostic prediction and risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model constructed in this study may facilitate precise prediction of survival and inform decision-making about adjuvant therapy according to N stage.

Challenge and future of cancer screening in China: Insights from esophageal cancer screening practice.

Cancer stands as a prominent public health concern in China, with elusive intervention targets due to unidentified high-risk causal factors for most cancers. Consequently, emphasis has shifted towards screening, diagnosing, and treating early cancer cases within the general population. However, China faces considerable obstacles in its cancer prevention and control efforts, attributing to the complexity and heterogeneity of the occurrence, progression, and prognosis of malignant tumors across populations, time, and regions. Taking esophageal cancer screening practices as an example, this review outlines the importance and assessment of cancer screening, delineating major challenges in China's cancer prevention and control: 1) limited comprehension of cancer's natural history; 2) lack of "China Evidence" supporting screening effectiveness and value; 3) compromised efficiency and accuracy in current screening modality; and 4) insufficient sustainability of the current screening practices and translation of relevant scientific research achievements. To address these challenges, we propose potential coping strategies: 1) establishing tailored technologies and pathways for cancer prevention and control based on population-based and clinical epidemiological studies using high-quality designs; 2) breaking conventional constraints to establish a novel cancer screening strategy aligned with real-world needs; and 3) establishing enhanced communication platforms among scientific research teams, policymakers, and industrial institutions to foster collaboration and innovation.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial.

Background: Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective. Methods: Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties. Results: Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased. Conclusions: Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Development and External Validation of an Improved Version of the Diagnostic Model for Opportunistic Screening of Malignant Esophageal Lesions.

We aimed to develop an improved version of the diagnostic model predicting the risk of malignant esophageal lesions in opportunistic screening and validate it in external populations. The development set involved 10,595 outpatients receiving endoscopy from a hospital in Hua County, a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in northern China. Validation set A enrolled 9453 outpatients receiving endoscopy in a non-high-risk region in southern China. Validation set B involved 17,511 residents in Hua County. The improved diagnostic model consisted of seven predictors including age, gender, family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, smoking, body mass index, dysphagia, and retrosternal pain, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.860 (95% confidence interval: 0.835-0.886) in the development set. Ideal discrimination ability was achieved in external validations (AUC validation set A: 0.892, 95% confidence interval: 0.858-0.926; AUC validation set B: 0.799, 95% confidence interval: 0.705-0.894). This improved model also markedly increased the detection rate of malignant esophageal lesions compared with universal screening, demonstrating great potential for use in opportunistic screening of malignant esophageal lesions in heterogeneous populations.

Wheat traits and the associated loci conferring radiation use efficiency.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) radiation use efficiency (RUE) must be raised through crop breeding to further increase the yield potential, as the harvest index is now close to its theoretical limit. Field experiments including 209 wheat cultivars which have been widely cultivated in China since the 1940s were conducted in two growing seasons (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) to evaluate the variations of phenological, physiological, plant architectural, and yield-related traits and their contributions to RUE and to identify limiting factors for wheat yield potential. The average annual genetic gain in grain yield was 0.60% (or 45.32 kg ha-1 year-1 ; R2 = 0.44, P < 0.01), mainly attributed to the gain in RUE (r = 0.85, P < 0.01). The net photosynthetic rates were positively and closely correlated with grain RUE and grain yield, suggesting source as a limiting factor to future yield gains. Thirty-four cultivars were identified, exhibiting not only high RUE, but also traits contributing to high RUE and 11 other critical traits - of known genetic basis - as potential parents for breeding to improve yield and RUE. Our findings reveal wheat traits and the associated loci conferring RUE, which are valuable for facilitating marker-assisted breeding to improve wheat RUE and yield potential.