Revascularization in the rabbit hindlimb: dissociation between capillary sprouting and arteriogenesis.

OBJECTIVE: Animal models of hindlimb ischemia are critical to our understanding of peripheral vascular disease and allow us to evaluate therapeutic strategies aimed to improve peripheral collateral circulation. To further elucidate the processes involved in revascularization following ischemia, we evaluated the temporal association between tissue ischemia, vascular endothelial cell growth factor (VEGF) release, angiogenesis (capillary sprouting), arteriogenesis (growth of the larger muscular arteries), and reserve blood flow (functional collateral flow). METHODS: New Zealand White rabbits (male 3-4 kg) were evaluated at specific days (0, 5, 10, 20 or 40) following femoral artery removal for measurement of hindlimb blood flow, skeletal muscle lactate production and VEGF content, capillary density (a marker of angiogenesis), and angiographic score (a marker of arteriogenesis). RESULTS: Maximal capillary sprouting occurred within 5 days of femoral artery removal and was temporally associated with reduced resting hindlimb blood flow, increased lactate release and detectable levels of skeletal muscle VEGF. The growth of larger angiographically visible collateral vessels occurred after 10 days and was not temporally associated with ischemia or skeletal muscle VEGF content, but did coincide with a large functional improvement in the reserve blood flow capacity of the limb. CONCLUSIONS: Following femoral artery removal in the rabbit, the time course of angiogenesis and arteriogenesis were clearly distinct. Tissue ischemia and/or VEGF may stimulate capillary sprouting, but this response does not translate to a significant improvement in collateral flow. The growth and development of the larger collateral vessels was correlated with a large functional improvement in collateral flow, and occurred at a time when VEGF levels were undetectable.

Carrier screening for cystic fibrosis: costs and clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the costs and clinical effects of 16 alternative strategies for cystic fibrosis (CF) carrier screening in the reproductive setting; and to test the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about cost and detection rate, stakeholder perspective, DNA test specificity, chance of nonpaternity, and couples' reproductive plans. METHOD: Cost-effectiveness analysis. RESULTS: A sequential screening strategy had the lowest cost per CF birth avoided. In this strategy, the first partner was screened with a standard test that identifies 85% of carriers. The second partner was screened with an expanded test if the first partner's screen was positive. This strategy identified 75% of anticipated CF births at a cost of $367,000 each. This figure does not include the lifetime medical costs of caring for a patient with CF, and it assumes that couples who identify a pregnancy at risk will choose to have prenatal diagnosis and termination of affected pregnancies. The cost per CF birth identified is approximately half this figure when couples plan two children. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of CF carrier screening depends greatly on couples' reproductive plans. CF carrier screening is most cost-effective when it is performed sequentially, when the information is used for more than one pregnancy, and when the intention of the couple is to identify and terminate affected pregnancies. These conclusions are important for policy considerations regarding population-based screening for CF, and may also have important implications for screening for less common diseases.

Genetic screening for reproductive planning: methodological and conceptual issues in policy analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This paper explores several critical assumptions and methodological issues arising in cost-effectiveness analyses of genetic screening strategies in the reproductive setting. METHODS: Seven issues that arose in the development of a decision analysis of alternative strategies for cystic fibrosis carrier screening are discussed. Each of these issues required a choice in technique. RESULTS: The presentations of these analyses frequently mask underlying assumptions and methodological choices. Often there is no best choice. In the case of genetic screening in the reproductive setting, these underlying issues often touch on deeply felt human values. CONCLUSIONS: Space limitations for published papers often preclude explaining such choices in detail; yet these decisions determine the way the results should be interpreted. Those who develop these analyses need to make sure that the implications of important assumptions are understood by the clinicians who will use them. At the same time, clinicians need to enhance their understanding of what these models truly mean and how they address underlying clinical, ethical, and economic issues.

Reporting the results of cystic fibrosis carrier screening.

The recent discovery of the cystic fibrosis gene has offered the possibility of population-based cystic fibrosis carrier screening. Although > 100 distinct mutations have been identified, five of these in aggregate represent about 85% of the alleles in Britain and the United States. Screening programs that test for these five mutations can be designed to offer several alternative ways to communicate the risk to a pregnancy and several alternative ways to manage a pregnancy. At this time we favor a strategy of screening partners in a couple in sequence, screening the second partner only if the first is positive; nevertheless, different strategies will appeal to different couples.

A model for making project funding decisions at the National Cancer Institute.

This paper describes the development of a model for making project funding decisions at The National Cancer Institute (NCI). The American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST) is a multiple-year, multiple-site demonstration project, aimed at reducing smoking prevalence. The initial request for ASSIST proposals was answered by about twice as many states as could be funded. Scientific peer review of the proposals was the primary criterion used for funding decisions. However, a modified Delphi process made explicit several criteria of secondary importance. A structured questionnaire identified the relative importance of these secondary criteria, some of which we incorporated into a composite preference function. We modeled the proposal funding decision as a zero-one program, and adjusted the preference function and available budget parametrically to generate many suitable outcomes. The actual funding decision, identified by our model, offers significant advantages over manually generated solutions found by experts at NCI.

Assessing physicians' estimates of the probability of coronary artery disease: the influence of patient characteristics.

The authors assessed physicians' probability estimates of coronary artery disease (CAD) in 250 patients undergoing a screening exercise stress test. True likelihood of disease (prevalence) was derived from the literature. Discrimination and calibration were assessed by comparing physicians' probability estimates and prevalence using pairwise comparisons, rank correlation, and linear regression. There were differences in the discriminative abilities of the physicians based on patient characteristics. For example, the physicians had better discriminative ability for patients with typical cardiac chest pain compared with atypical chest pain. The physicians were able to predict the prevalence of CAD in broad groups of patients. However, they overestimated probabilities for patients with low prevalence of disease and underestimated probabilities for patients with high prevalence of disease. The authors conclude that physicians make consistent errors in the use of probability estimates. The quality of these estimates depends on patient characteristics such as type of chest pain and true likelihood of disease.

Influence of histaminergic receptors on denervated canine gracilis muscle vascular tone during endotoxemia.

The purpose of this study was to determine if endogenously released histamine and its non-neural interaction with the H1- and H2-histaminergic receptors in the peripheral vasculature can account for the decompensatory loss of peripheral vascular tone associated with the hypotension occurring during endotoxemia. A denervated in situ constant flow double canine gracilis muscle preparation that permitted one muscle to serve as a control (GMc) for the contralateral experimental muscle (GMe) was used. Endotoxemia was induced by intravenous infusion of 2 mg.kg-1.30 min-1 endotoxin. The specific H1 and H2 antagonists diphen-hydramine and cimetidine were infused either together or separately in both high and low dosages into the GMe. Blockades were validated by intra-arterial injection of histamine or the specific agonists betahistine for H1 and dimaprit for H2 receptors. The results suggest that the high-dose diphenhydramine produced a nonspecific dilation not seen with the lower dose. Because both the blocked and unblocked vascular beds exhibited the same degree of vasodilation after endotoxin, these studies do not support the hypothesis that endogenously released histamine is responsible for the loss of vascular tone. These studies do verify, however, that a nonneurally mediated loss of skeletal muscle vascular tone is an important factor to consider in the overall cardiovascular hypotension occurring during endotoxin shock.

Clinical guidelines for using two dichotomous tests.

Building on the threshold model developed by Pauker and Kassirer for a single test, the authors describe a decision analytic model for two tests with dichotomous outcomes. The model includes ten decision strategies that differ depending on which tests are performed, whether the tests are performed together or in sequence, and the definition of a positivity criterion used to make the treatment decision when the test results disagree. Formulas derived from the model are used to compute the preferred option as a function of disease probability and to calculate test and test-treatment thresholds. General guidelines developed from the model can be used without calculation to identify relative preferences for alternative options and to predict threshold effects.