Associations of Menstrual Cycle and Progesterone-to-Estradiol Ratio With Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Use Disorder: A Sex-Separated Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) constitutes a critical public health issue and has sex-specific characteristics. Initial evidence suggests that progesterone and estradiol might reduce or increase alcohol intake, respectively. However, there is a need for a better understanding of how the menstrual cycle in females and the ratio of progesterone to estradiol in females and males influence alcohol use patterns in individuals with AUD. METHODS: In this sex-separated multicenter longitudinal study, the authors analyzed 12-month data on real-life alcohol use (from 21,460 smartphone entries), menstrual cycle, and serum progesterone-to-estradiol ratios (from 667 blood samples at four individual study visits) in 74 naturally cycling females and 278 males with AUD between 2020 and 2022, using generalized and general linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: Menstrual cycle phases were significantly associated with binge drinking and progesterone-to-estradiol ratio. During the late luteal phase, females showed a lower predicted binge drinking probability of 13% and a higher predicted marginal mean of progesterone-to-estradiol ratio of 95 compared with during the menstrual, follicular, and ovulatory phases (binge drinking probability and odds ratios vs. late luteal phase, respectively: 17%, odds ratio=1.340, 95% CI=1.031, 1.742; 19%, odds ratio=1.523, 95% CI=1.190, 1.949; and 20%, odds ratio=1.683, 95% CI=1.285, 2.206; difference in progesterone-to-estradiol ratios, respectively: -61, 95% CI=-105.492, -16.095; -78, 95% CI=-119.322, -37.039; and -71, 95% CI=-114.568, -27.534). In males, a higher progesterone-to-estradiol ratio was related to lower probabilities of binge drinking and of any alcohol use, with a 10-unit increase in the hormone ratio resulting in odds ratios of 0.918 (95% CI=0.843, 0.999) and 0.914 (95% CI=0.845, 0.988), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These ecologically valid findings suggest that high progesterone-to-estradiol ratios can have a protective effect against problematic alcohol use in females and males with AUD, highlighting the progesterone-to-estradiol ratio as a promising treatment target. Moreover, the results indicate that females with AUD may benefit from menstrual cycle phase-tailored treatments.

Explaining the optimistic performance evaluation of newly proposed methods: A cross-design validation experiment.

The constant development of new data analysis methods in many fields of research is accompanied by an increasing awareness that these new methods often perform better in their introductory paper than in subsequent comparison studies conducted by other researchers. We attempt to explain this discrepancy by conducting a systematic experiment that we call "cross-design validation of methods". In the experiment, we select two methods designed for the same data analysis task, reproduce the results shown in each paper, and then reevaluate each method based on the study design (i.e., datasets, competing methods, and evaluation criteria) that was used to show the abilities of the other method. We conduct the experiment for two data analysis tasks, namely cancer subtyping using multiomic data and differential gene expression analysis. Three of the four methods included in the experiment indeed perform worse when they are evaluated on the new study design, which is mainly caused by the different datasets. Apart from illustrating the many degrees of freedom existing in the assessment of a method and their effect on its performance, our experiment suggests that the performance discrepancies between original and subsequent papers may not only be caused by the nonneutrality of the authors proposing the new method but also by differences regarding the level of expertise and field of application. Authors of new methods should thus focus not only on a transparent and extensive evaluation but also on comprehensive method documentation that enables the correct use of their methods in subsequent studies.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk.

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Colorectal Cancer Screening for Persons With a Positive Family History­Evaluation of the FARKOR Program for the Secondary Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Persons Aged 25 to 50.

BACKGROUND: Persons with a positive family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are more likely than others to develop CRC and are also younger at the onset of the disease. Nonetheless, the German Federal Joint Committee (G-BA, Gemeinsamer Bundes - ausschuss) recommends screening all persons aged 50 and above regardless of their family history. FARKOR was a project supported by the Innovation Fund of the G-BA to study the feasibility, efficacy, and safety of a risk-adapted early detection program for CRC among persons aged 25 to 50 without any specific past medical history. METHODS: Physicians in private practice in Bavaria documented their activities relating to FARKOR online. The FARKOR process comprised a declaration of consent, a simplified family history for CRC, an optional, more comprehensive family history, a counseling session for participatory decision-making on further measures, and various modalities of screening (an immunological fecal occult blood test [iFOBT], colonoscopy, or no screening). Related physician activities outside the FARKOR process were assessed by record linkage between study data and data of the patients' health insurance carriers. RESULTS: The simplified family history was documented in 25 847 persons and positive for CRC in 5769 (22.3%). 3232 persons had a more comprehensive family history, among whom 2054 (63.6%) participated in screening measures. 1595 underwent colonoscopy; 278 persons who had already undergone colonoscopy in the preceding five years were excluded from the analysis. Colonoscopy revealed adenoma in 232 persons (17,6 %), advanced adenoma in 78 (5.9%) and carcinoma in 4 (0.3%). There were no serious complications. CONCLUSION: The detection rates in this study corresponded to those of persons aged 55 to 59 in the current early detection program. Despite numerous problems in the performance of the study (inconsistencies in documentation, external performance of screening measures on program participants), the results support the feasibility of a risk-adapted early detection program in the young target population with a family history of CRC.

German Guidelines on Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorders: Update 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol consumption in Germany is associated with considerable health and economic consequences. In addition to prevention, the early detection and differential treatment of those affected play an important role. The guideline "Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorders" forms the basis of this care for people suffering from alcohol use disorders. Regular updates integrate the current state of research evidence and clinical expertise. METHODS: Under the auspices of the German Society for Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, Psychosomatics, and Neurology and the German Society for Addiction Research and Addiction Therapy e.V. (DG-Sucht), the 2019-2020 S3 guideline on alcohol was revised by eight working groups. Thirty-five professional societies participated in a structured consensus process to deliberate the recommendations. Potential conflicts of interest were examined in advance, documented, and taken into account during the voting on the recommendations. RESULTS: The guideline provides recommendations on screening and brief interventions for different groups of people, as well as on treatment of individuals in the acute and post-acute phases of withdrawal. Special emphasis was placed on the treatment of comorbid somatic and psychological disorders. In addition, recommendations for specific groups of people (e.g., children and adolescents, pregnant women) have been made and adapted to the German care landscape.

[Screening for Problematic Alcohol Consumption - A Survey on Guideline Implementation in Transdisciplinary Health Care of a Model Region]. / Screening auf problematischen Alkoholkonsum ­ Erhebung zur Umsetzung der S3-Leitlinienempfehlungen in der transdisziplinären Versorgung einer Modellregion.

AIM: Recording the frequency of screenings for problematic alcohol consumption by professionals involved in the health care of respective patients. The German S3-guideline "screening, diagnosis and treatment of alcohol-related disorders" recommends the use of questionnaire-based screenings for all patients in all settings. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey on screening frequency among general practitioners, gynecologists, psychiatrists, child- and adolescent therapists, psychotherapists, social workers and midwives. Logistic regression was used to explore how healthcare professionals' attributes were associated with the implementation of screenings. RESULTS: With response rates of about 20%, health care professionals reported using screening instruments for an average of 6.9% of all patients during the previous four weeks. Most of the time, custom-made questions were used instead of the recommended instruments (AUDIT, AUDIT-C). Higher screening rates were reported for patients with newly diagnosed hypertension (21.2%), alcohol-related disorders (43.3%) and mental disorders (39.3%). Knowledge of the guideline was associated with implementation of screenings (OR=4.67; 95% KI 1.94-11.25, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive screening for problematic alcohol use with questionnaire-based instruments in accordance with guidelines is far from being routinely implemented in the studied health care settings. Measures to increase the knowledge of the guidelines are necessary in order to increase the frequency of alcohol screening in health care.

Survival after left ventricular assist device implantation correlates with a novel device-based measure of heart rate variability: the heart rate score.

OBJECTIVES: The heart rate score (HRS) serves as a device-based measure of impaired heart rate variability and is an independent predictor of death in patients with heart failure and a cardiac implantable electrical device. However, no data are available for predicting death from the HRS in patients with end stage heart failure and a left ventricular assist device. METHODS: From November 2011 to July 2018, a total of 56 patients with a pre-existing cardiac implantable electrical device underwent left ventricular assist device implantation at our 2 study sites. The ventricular HRS was calculated retrospectively during the first cardiac implantable electrical device follow-up examination following the index hospitalization. Survival during follow-up was correlated with initial HRS. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 46.4% of the patients (n = 26) died. The median follow-up period was 33.2 months. The median HRS after the index hospitalization was 41.1 ± 21.8%. More patients with an HRS >65% died compared to patients with an HRS <30% (76.9% vs 14.4%; P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: In our multicentre experience, survival of patients after an left ventricular assist device implant correlates with the HRS. After confirmation of our findings in a larger cohort, the effect of rate-responsive pacing will be within the scope of further investigation.

Interrupted time series study found mixed effects of the impact of the Bavarian smoke-free legislation on pregnancy outcomes.

In 2007 the German government passed smoke-free legislation, leaving the details of implementation to the individual federal states. In January 2008 Bavaria implemented one of the strictest laws in Germany. We investigated its impact on pregnancy outcomes and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) study design to assess any changes in preterm birth, small for gestational age (primary outcomes), and low birth weight, stillbirth and very preterm birth. We included 1,236,992 singleton births, comprising 83,691 preterm births and 112,143 small for gestational age newborns. For most outcomes we observed unclear effects. For very preterm births, we found an immediate drop of 10.4% (95%CI - 15.8, - 4.6%; p = 0.0006) and a gradual decrease of 0.5% (95%CI - 0.7, - 0.2%, p = 0.0010) after implementation of the legislation. The majority of subgroup and sensitivity analyses confirm these results. Although we found no statistically significant effect of the Bavarian smoke-free legislation on most pregnancy outcomes, a substantial decrease in very preterm births was observed. We cannot rule out that despite our rigorous methods and robustness checks, design-inherent limitations of the ITS study as well as country-specific factors, such as the ambivalent German policy context have influenced our estimation of the effects of the legislation.

Evaluating the effects of a risk-adapted screening program for familial colorectal cancer in individuals between 25 and 50 years of age: study protocol for the prospective population-based intervention study FARKOR.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common malignant disease and the second most common cause of cancer death in Germany. Official CRC screening starts at age 50. As there is evidence that individuals with a family history of CRC have an increased risk of developing CRC before age 50, there are recommendations to start screening for this group earlier. This study aims to evaluate the clinical and economic effects of a risk-adapted screening program for CRC in individuals between 25 and 50 years of age with potentially increased familial CRC risk. METHODS: FARKOR (Familiäres Risiko für das Kolorektale Karzinom) is a population-based prospective intervention study. All members of cooperating statutory health insurance companies between 25 and 50 years of age living in a model region in Germany (federal state of Bavaria, 3.5 million inhabitants in this age group) can participate in the program between October 2018 and March 2020. Recruitment takes place through physicians and through a public campaign. Additionally, insurances contact recently diagnosed CRC patients in order to encourage their relatives to participate in the program. Physicians assess a participant's familial history of CRC using a short questionnaire. All participants with a family history of CRC are invited to a shared decision making process to decide on further screening options consisting of either undergoing an immunological test for fecal occult blood or colonoscopy. Comprehensive data collection based on self-reported lifestyle information, medical documentation and health administrative databases accompanies the screening program. Longterm benefits, harms and the cost-effectiveness of the risk-adapted CRC screening program will be assessed by decision analytic modeling. DISCUSSION: The data collected in this study will add important pieces of information that are still missing in the evaluation of the effects and the cost-effectiveness of a risk-adapted CRC screening strategy for individuals under 50 years of age. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS-IDDRKS00015097.

Acute alcohol withdrawal and recovery in men lead to profound changes in DNA methylation profiles: a longitudinal clinical study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Withdrawal is a serious and sometimes life-threatening event in alcohol-dependent individuals. It has been suggested that epigenetic processes may play a role in this context. This study aimed to identify genes and pathways involved in such processes which hint to relevant mechanisms underlying withdrawal. DESIGN: Cross-sectional case-control study and longitudinal within-cases study during alcohol withdrawal and after 2 weeks of recovery SETTING: Addiction medicine departments in two university hospitals in southern Germany. PARTICIPANTS/CASES: Ninety-nine alcohol-dependent male patients receiving in-patient treatment and suffering from severe withdrawal symptoms during detoxification and 95 age-matched male controls. MEASUREMENTS: Epigenome-wide methylation patterns were analyzed in patients during acute alcohol withdrawal and after 2 weeks of recovery, as well as in age-matched controls using Illumina EPIC bead chips. Methylation levels of patients and controls were tested for association with withdrawal status. Tests were adjusted for technical and batch effects, age, smoking and cell type distribution. Single-site analysis, as well as an analysis of differentially methylated regions and gene ontology analysis, were performed. FINDINGS: We found pronounced epigenome-wide significant [false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05] differences between patients during withdrawal and after 2 weeks [2876 cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites], as well as between patients and controls (9845 and 6094 CpG sites comparing patients at time-point 1 and patients at time-point 2 versus controls, respectively). Analysis of differentially methylated regions and involved pathways revealed an over-representation of gene ontology terms related to the immune system response. Differences between patients and controls diminished after recovery (> 800 CpG sites less), suggesting a partial reversibility of alcohol- and withdrawal-related methylation. CONCLUSIONS: Acute alcohol withdrawal in severely dependent male patients appears to be associated with extensive changes in epigenome-wide methylation patterns. In particular, genes involved in immune system response seem to be affected by this condition.

Sampling uncertainty versus method uncertainty: A general framework with applications to omics biomarker selection.

Uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics which can be considered from different points of view. One type of uncertainty, typically referred to as sampling uncertainty, arises through the variability of results obtained when the same analysis strategy is applied to different samples. Another type of uncertainty arises through the variability of results obtained when using the same sample but different analysis strategies addressing the same research question. We denote this latter type of uncertainty as method uncertainty. It results from all the choices to be made for an analysis, for example, decisions related to data preparation, method choice, or model selection. In medical sciences, a large part of omics research is focused on the identification of molecular biomarkers, which can either be performed through ranking or by selection from among a large number of candidates. In this paper, we introduce a general resampling-based framework to quantify and compare sampling and method uncertainty. For illustration, we apply this framework to different scenarios related to the selection and ranking of omics biomarkers in the context of acute myeloid leukemia: variable selection in multivariable regression using different types of omics markers, the ranking of biomarkers according to their predictive performance, and the identification of differentially expressed genes from RNA-seq data. For all three scenarios, our findings suggest highly unstable results when the same analysis strategy is applied to two independent samples, indicating high sampling uncertainty and a comparatively smaller, but non-negligible method uncertainty, which strongly depends on the methods being compared.

A cautionary comment on the generation of Berkson error in epidemiological studies.

Exposure measurement error can be seen as one of the most important sources of uncertainty in studies in epidemiology. When the aim is to assess the effects of measurement error on statistical inference or to compare the performance of several methods for measurement error correction, it is indispensable to be able to generate different types of measurement error. This paper compares two approaches for the generation of Berkson error, which have recently been applied in radiation epidemiology, in their ability to generate exposure data that satisfy the properties of the Berkson model. In particular, it is shown that the use of one of the methods produces results that are not in accordance with two important properties of Berkson error.

Shared and unshared exposure measurement error in occupational cohort studies and their effects on statistical inference in proportional hazards models.

Exposure measurement error represents one of the most important sources of uncertainty in epidemiology. When exposure uncertainty is not or only poorly accounted for, it can lead to biased risk estimates and a distortion of the shape of the exposure-response relationship. In occupational cohort studies, the time-dependent nature of exposure and changes in the method of exposure assessment may create complex error structures. When a method of group-level exposure assessment is used, individual worker practices and the imprecision of the instrument used to measure the average exposure for a group of workers may give rise to errors that are shared between workers, within workers or both. In contrast to unshared measurement error, the effects of shared errors remain largely unknown. Moreover, exposure uncertainty and magnitude of exposure are typically highest for the earliest years of exposure. We conduct a simulation study based on exposure data of the French cohort of uranium miners to compare the effects of shared and unshared exposure uncertainty on risk estimation and on the shape of the exposure-response curve in proportional hazards models. Our results indicate that uncertainty components shared within workers cause more bias in risk estimation and a more severe attenuation of the exposure-response relationship than unshared exposure uncertainty or exposure uncertainty shared between individuals. These findings underline the importance of careful characterisation and modeling of exposure uncertainty in observational studies.

Episodic Memory Impairments in Primary Brain Tumor Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive investigations in brain tumor patients have mostly explored episodic memory without differentiating between encoding, storage, and retrieval deficits. The aim of this study is to offer insight into the memory sub-processes affected in primary brain tumor patients and propose an appropriate assessment method. METHOD: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical and memory assessments of 158 patients with primary brain tumors who had presented to our departments with cognitive complaints and were investigated using the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test. RESULTS: Retrieval was the process of episodic memory most frequently affected, with deficits in this domain detected in 92% of patients with episodic memory impairments. Storage and encoding deficits were less prevalent, with impairments, respectively, detected in 41% and 23% of memory-impaired patients. The pattern of episodic memory impairment was similar across different tumor histologies and treatment modalities. CONCLUSION: Although all processes of episodic memory were found to be impaired, retrieval was by far the most widely affected function. A thorough assessment of all three components of episodic memory should be part of the regular neuropsychological evaluation in patients with primary brain tumors.

Accounting for Berkson and Classical Measurement Error in Radon Exposure Using a Bayesian Structural Approach in the Analysis of Lung Cancer Mortality in the French Cohort of Uranium Miners.

Many occupational cohort studies on underground miners have demonstrated that radon exposure is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality. However, despite the deleterious consequences of exposure measurement error on statistical inference, these analyses traditionally do not account for exposure uncertainty. This might be due to the challenging nature of measurement error resulting from imperfect surrogate measures of radon exposure. Indeed, we are typically faced with exposure uncertainty in a time-varying exposure variable where both the type and the magnitude of error may depend on period of exposure. To address the challenge of accounting for multiplicative and heteroscedastic measurement error that may be of Berkson or classical nature, depending on the year of exposure, we opted for a Bayesian structural approach, which is arguably the most flexible method to account for uncertainty in exposure assessment. We assessed the association between occupational radon exposure and lung cancer mortality in the French cohort of uranium miners and found the impact of uncorrelated multiplicative measurement error to be of marginal importance. However, our findings indicate that the retrospective nature of exposure assessment that occurred in the earliest years of mining of this cohort as well as many other cohorts of underground miners might lead to an attenuation of the exposure-risk relationship. More research is needed to address further uncertainties in the calculation of lung dose, since this step will likely introduce important sources of shared uncertainty.

Risk factors for pelvic lymphoceles post-radical prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphoceles (LC) represent a well-described rare complication post-radical prostatectomy (RP). Our aim was to determine risk factors and to develop possible prevention strategies for LC in a community-based study. METHODS: Data from 1163 RP-patients from 67 clinics between January 2002 and December 2004 were retrospectively evaluated. Patients underwent pelvic imaging procedures/LC-management during 3 weeks of rehabilitation post-RP. RESULTS: LC were identified in 304 patients (26%). Lymphadenectomy was carried out in 92% of patients (1001/1086 patients), from which 28% had LC (n = 277) versus 14% without lymphadenectomy (12/85, P = 0.007). Complications (lower limb edema, pain, thrombosis, infection and bladder compression) were observed in 9% of patients (28/304; 2.4% of total patients); necessitating therapy. LC therapy was carried out in 59 patients (5.9%) with pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) and in no patients (0%) without PLND (P = 0.021). Risk factors included were patients' age, body mass index, prostate volume, TNM-classification, number of removed lymph nodes, previous surgery/therapy, heparin prophylaxis, surgical instruments and pelvic lymphadenectomy. Univariate analysis showed lymphadenectomy as the only significant risk factor for the development of LC post-RP (P = 0.007). When applying multivariate analyses using stepwise logistic regression, only lymphadenectomy was associated with a significant risk for lymphoceles (odds ratio = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3-4.9, P = 0.004). Adjusting for other factors, no other factor came close to being significant (P < 0.05). All symptomatic LC were successfully treated without further sequelae. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical LC post-RP are more common than thought, and rarely necessitate intervention. Pelvic lymphadenectomy represents the only significant factor contributing to LC-development. Because of this, prevention remains difficult.