The natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The evidence base supporting the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, initiated in 2003, has been questioned repeatedly, with little consensus on modelling assumptions, parameter values or evidence sources to be used in cost-effectiveness analyses. The purpose of this project was to assemble all available evidence on the prevalence and incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in the UK and its sequelae, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy (EP) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) to review the evidence base in its entirety, assess its consistency and, if possible, arrive at a coherent set of estimates consistent with all the evidence. METHODS: Evidence was identified using 'high-yield' strategies. Bayesian Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis models were constructed for separate subparts of the clinical and population epidemiology of CT. Where possible, different types of data sources were statistically combined to derive coherent estimates. Where evidence was inconsistent, evidence sources were re-interpreted and new estimates derived on a post-hoc basis. RESULTS: An internally coherent set of estimates was generated, consistent with a multifaceted evidence base, fertility surveys and routine UK statistics on PID and EP. Among the key findings were that the risk of PID (symptomatic or asymptomatic) following an untreated CT infection is 17.1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 6% to 29%] and the risk of salpingitis is 7.3% (95% CrI 2.2% to 14.0%). In women aged 16-24 years, screened at annual intervals, at best, 61% (95% CrI 55% to 67%) of CT-related PID and 22% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) of all PID could be directly prevented. For women aged 16-44 years, the proportions of PID, EP and TFI that are attributable to CT are estimated to be 20% (95% CrI 6% to 38%), 4.9% (95% CrI 1.2% to 12%) and 29% (95% CrI 9% to 56%), respectively. The prevalence of TFI in the UK in women at the end of their reproductive lives is 1.1%: this is consistent with all PID carrying a relatively high risk of reproductive damage, whether diagnosed or not. Every 1000 CT infections in women aged 16-44 years, on average, gives rise to approximately 171 episodes of PID and 73 of salpingitis, 2.0 EPs and 5.1 women with TFI at age 44 years. CONCLUSIONS AND RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS: The study establishes a set of interpretations of the major studies and study designs, under which a coherent set of estimates can be generated. CT is a significant cause of PID and TFI. CT screening is of benefit to the individual, but detection and treatment of incident infection may be more beneficial. Women with lower abdominal pain need better advice on when to seek early medical attention to avoid risk of reproductive damage. The study provides new insights into the reproductive risks of PID and the role of CT. Further research is required on the proportions of PID, EP and TFI attributable to CT to confirm predictions made in this report, and to improve the precision of key estimates. The cost-effectiveness of screening should be re-evaluated using the findings of this report. FUNDING: The Medical Research Council grant G0801947.

Which sexually active young female students are most at risk of pelvic inflammatory disease? A prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) in female students. METHODS: We performed a prospective study set in 11 universities and 9 further education colleges in London. In 2004-2006, 2529 sexually experienced, multiethnic, female students, mean age 20.8 years, provided self-taken vaginal samples and completed questionnaires at recruitment to the Prevention of Pelvic Infection chlamydia screening trial. After 12 months, they were followed up by questionnaire backed by medical record search and assessed for PID by blinded genitourinary medicine physicians. RESULTS: Of 2004 (79%) participants who reported numbers of sexual partners during follow-up, 32 (1.6%, 95% CI 1.1% to 2.2%) were diagnosed with PID. The strongest predictor of PID was baseline Chlamydia trachomatis (relative risk (RR) 5.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 15.6). After adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis, significant predictors of PID were ≥2 sexual partners or a new sexual partner during follow-up (RR 4.0, 95% CI 1.8 to 8.5; RR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.3), age <20 years (RR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5 to 7.0), recruitment from a further education college rather than a university (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3) and history at baseline of vaginal discharge (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.8) or pelvic pain (RR 4.1, 95% CI 2.0 to 8.3) in the previous six months. Bacterial vaginosis and Mycoplasma genitalium infection were no longer significantly associated with PID after adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple or new partners in the last 12 months, age <20 years and attending a further education college rather than a university were risk factors for PID after adjustment for baseline C. trachomatis infection. Sexual health education and screening programmes could be targeted at these high-risk groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00115388).

An observational study to evaluate three pilot programmes of retesting chlamydia-positive individuals within 6†months in the South West of England.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate 3 pilot chlamydia retesting programmes in South West England which were initiated prior to the release of new National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) guidelines recommending retesting in 2014. METHODS: Individuals testing positive between August 2012 and July 2013 in Bristol (n=346), Cornwall (n=252) and Dorset (n=180) programmes were eligible for inclusion in the retesting pilots. The primary outcomes were retest within 6 months (yes/no) and repeat diagnosis at retest (yes/no), adjusted for area, age and gender. RESULTS: Overall 303/778 (39.0%) of participants were retested within 6 months and 31/299 (10.4%) were positive at retest. Females were more likely to retest than males and Dorset had higher retesting rates than the other areas. CONCLUSIONS: More than a third of those eligible were retested within the time frame of the study. Chlamydia retesting programmes appear feasible within the context of current programmes to identify individuals at continued risk of infection with relatively low resource and time input.

Risk of pelvic inflammatory disease following Chlamydia trachomatis infection: analysis of prospective studies with a multistate model.

Our objective in this study was to estimate the probability that a Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection will cause an episode of clinical pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and the reduction in such episodes among women with CT that could be achieved by annual screening. We reappraised evidence from randomized controlled trials of screening and controlled observational studies that followed untreated CT-infected and -uninfected women to measure the development of PID. Data from these studies were synthesized using a continuous-time Markov model which takes into account the competing risk of spontaneous clearance of CT. Using a 2-step piecewise homogenous Markov model that accounts for the distinction between prevalent and incident infections, we investigated the possibility that the rate of PID due to CT is greater during the period immediately following infection. The available data were compatible with both the homogenous and piecewise homogenous models. Given a homogenous model, the probability that a CT episode will cause clinical PID was 0.16 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.06, 0.25), and annual screening would prevent 61% (95% CrI: 55, 67) of CT-related PID in women who became infected with CT. Assuming a piecewise homogenous model with a higher rate during the first 60 days, corresponding results were 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.07, 0.26) and 55% (95% CrI: 32, 72), respectively.

Chlamydia screening, retesting and repeat diagnoses in Cornwall, UK 2003-2009.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to describe the patterns of testing and retesting for chlamydia in Cornwall during the first 5 years of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. We evaluate the factors associated with retesting and estimate the incidence of chlamydia diagnosis and repeat diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary database analysis. SELECTION CRITERIA: men and women tested for chlamydia between March 2003 and January 2009 in Cornwall, aged ≥12 years and ≤25 years at the first test. The factors associated with retesting in those with at least one known test result and at least 14 days follow-up time were analysed using Cox regression and the incidence of diagnosis and repeat diagnosis were calculated. RESULTS: The final dataset consisted of 71 066 records from 49 941 individuals; of whom 59.0% were female and 75.4% were only tested once. There were 48 375 individuals with at least one known test result (negative or positive) and at least 14 days follow-up, included in the Cox regression analysis. Factors associated with testing more than once were (adjusted HR, 95% CI): being female (2.24; 2.14 to 2.34) and initially testing positive (1.43; 1.35 to 1.51). The positivity at first episode declined from 13.2% (1077 cases) in 2003/2004 to 5.8% (843 cases) in 2008/2009. The incidence of diagnosis at the second test was 5.9 per 100 person years in those testing negative at the first test compared with 18.1 per 100 person years in those initially positive. DISCUSSION: Most individuals in this analysis were tested only once, but the testing volume and proportion of repeat tests were highest at the end of the study period. As the testing rate stabilises to 30% coverage, maintaining retesting rates in those previously tested and especially in those previously diagnosed with chlamydia will be necessary for the sustainability of the screening programme. CONCLUSIONS: A key feature of the next 5 years of the screening programme will be to maintain screening and rescreening.

Chlamydia trachomatis infection increases fallopian tube PROKR2 via TLR2 and NFκB activation resulting in a microenvironment predisposed to ectopic pregnancy.

Chlamydia trachomatis and smoking are major risk factors for tubal ectopic pregnancy (EP), but the underlying mechanisms of these associations are not completely understood. Fallopian tube (FT) from women with EP exhibit altered expression of prokineticin receptors 1 and 2 (PROKR1 and PROKR2); smoking increases FT PROKR1, resulting in a microenvironment predisposed to EP. We hypothesize that C. trachomatis also predisposes to EP by altering FT PROKR expression and have investigated this by examining NFκB activation via ligation of the Toll-like receptor (TLR) family of cell-surface pattern recognition receptors. PROKR2 mRNA was higher in FT from women with evidence of past C. trachomatis infection than in those without (P < 0.05), and was also increased in FT explants and in oviductal epithelial cell line OE-E6/E7 infected with C. trachomatis (P < 0.01) or exposed to UV-killed organisms (P < 0.05). The ability of both live and dead organisms to induce this effect suggests ligation of a cell-surface-expressed receptor. FT epithelium and OE-E6/E7 were both found to express TLR2 and TLR4 by immunohistochemistry. Transfection of OE-E6/E7 cells with dominant-negative TLR2 or IκBα abrogated the C. trachomatis-induced PROKR2 expression. We propose that ligation of tubal TLR2 and activation of NFκB by C. trachomatis leads to increased tubal PROKR2, thereby predisposing the tubal microenvironment to ectopic implantation.