RESUMO
Background: Patients admitted to hospital with sepsis are at persistent risk of poor outcome after discharge. Many tools are available to risk-stratify sepsis patients for in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to identify the best risk-stratification tool to prognosticate outcome 180 days after admission via the emergency department (ED) with suspected sepsis. Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed of adult ED patients who were admitted after receiving intravenous antibiotics for the treatment of a suspected sepsis, between 1st March and 31st August 2019. The Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score, SOFA score, Red-flag sepsis criteria met, NICE high-risk criteria met, the NEWS2 score and the SIRS criteria, were calculated for each patient. Death and survival at 180 days were noted. Patients were stratified in to high and low-risk groups as per accepted criteria for each risk-stratification tool. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each tool and the log-rank test performed. The tools were compared using Cox-proportional hazard regression (CPHR). The tools were studied further in those without the following specified co-morbidities: Dementia, malignancy, Rockwood Frailty score of 6 or more, long-term oxygen therapy and previous do-not-resuscitate orders. Results: Of the 1,057 patients studied 146 (13.8%) died at hospital discharge and 284 were known to have died within 180 days. Overall survival proportion was 74.4% at 180 days and 8.6% of the population was censored before 180 days. Only the REDS and SOFA scores identified less than 50% of the population as high-risk. All tools except the SIRS criteria, prognosticated for outcome at 180 days; Log-rank tests between high and low-risk groups were: REDS score p < 0.0001, SOFA score p < 0.0001, Red-flag criteria p = 0.001, NICE high-risk criteria p = 0.0001, NEWS2 score p = 0.003 and SIRS criteria p = 0.98. On CPHR, the REDS [Hazard ratio (HR) 2.54 (1.92-3.35)] and SOFA [HR 1.58 (1.24-2.03)] scores out-performed the other risk-stratification tools. In patients without the specified co-morbidities, only the REDS score and the SOFA score risk-stratified for outcome at 180 days. Conclusion: In this study, all the risk-stratification tools studied were found to prognosticate for outcome at 180 days, except the SIRS criteria. The REDS and SOFA scores outperformed the other tools.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early treatment is advocated in the management of patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department (ED). We sought to understand the association between the ED treatments and outcome in patients admitted with suspected sepsis. The treatments studied were: (i) the time to antibiotics, where time zero is the time the patient was booked in which is also the triage time; (ii) the volume of intravenous fluid (IVF); (iii) mean arterial pressure (MAP) after 2000 ml of IVF and (iv) the final MAP in the ED. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the ED database of patients aged ≥ 18 year who met two SIRS criteria or one red flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted between 8th February 2016 and 31st August 2017. The primary outcome measure was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The four treatments stated above were controlled for severity of illness and subject to multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazard regression to identify independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Of the 2,066 patients studied 272 (13.2%) died in hospital. The median time to antibiotics was 48 (interquartile range 30-82) minutes. The time to antibiotics was an independent predictor of mortality only in those who developed refractory hypotension (RH); antibiotics administered more than 55 mins after arrival was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for mortality of 2.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-6.14]. The number-needed-to-treat was 4. IVF > 2000 ml (95% CI > 500- > 2100), except in RH, and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality. The OR for mortality of IVF > 2,000 ml in non-RH was 1.80 (95% CI 1.15-2.82); Number-needed-to-harm was 14. The OR for morality for a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF was 3.42 (95% CI 2.10-5.57). A final MAP < 75 mmHg in the ED was associated with, but not an independent predictor of mortality. An initial systolic blood pressure of < 100 mmHg has a sensitivity of 63.3% and specificity of 88.4% for the development of RH. CONCLUSION: In this study, antibiotics were found to be time-critical in RH. Intravenous fluids > 2000 ml (except in RH) and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality.