Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes.

Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.

Trends in Staging, Treatment, and Survival in Colorectal Cancer Between 1990 and 2014 in the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess trends in patient-related factors and treatment strategies in Dutch colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and their effect on survival. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Rotterdam study, an ongoing population-based study of individuals aged ≥45 years. Between 1990 and 2014, incident, pathology-confirmed CRC cases were divided into two groups based on date of diagnosis (either before or after January 1, 2003). Patient characteristics, initial treatment, and date of mortality were collected. Analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Of 14,928 individuals, 272 developed colon cancer and 124 rectal cancer. Median follow-up was 13.2 years. Patients diagnosed after January 1, 2003 were treated chemotherapeutically more often than those diagnosed prior to this date in colon cancer (28.6% vs. 9.1%, p = 0.02) and treated more often with chemotherapy (38.6% vs. 12.3%, p = 0.02) and radiotherapy (41.3% vs. 10.2%, p = 0.001) in rectal cancer. Overall survival, adjusted for patient, tumor characteristics, and treatment, improved in rectal cancer (HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.74) but remained stable in colon cancer (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.84-1.95). CONCLUSION: Chemotherapeutic agents and radiotherapy are increasingly used in CRC patients. Survival in rectal cancer improved, whereas in colon cancer this was not observed.

Survival After Uncomplicated EVAR in Octogenarians is Similar to the General Population of Octogenarians Without an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: Long term survival after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) in octogenarians remains unclear. This was evaluated by comparing octogenarians after EVAR with a matched group of octogenarians without an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from the Rotterdam Study (RS). The influence of complications after EVAR on survival was also studied with the aim of identifying risk factors for the development of complications in octogenarians. METHODS: Using propensity score matching (PSM), 83 EVAR octogenarians were matched for comorbidities with 83 octogenarians from the RS, and survival was compared between these two groups using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Then, complications were studied, defined as cardiac or pulmonary, renal deterioration, access site bleeding, acute limb ischaemia or bowel ischaemia, within 30 days of surgery between 83 EVAR octogenarians and 475 EVAR non-octogenarians. Also, the difference in baseline characteristics between the octogenarians with and without complications after EVAR were studied, and survival was compared between the RS controls and the complicated and uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians separately. RESULTS: The total EVAR octogenarian population did not show an increased mortality risk compared with RS octogenarian controls (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.97). Post-operative complications occurred in 22 octogenarians (27%) and 59 non-octogenarians (12.4%, p < .001), mainly cardiac, pulmonary, and bleeding complications. All baseline characteristics were similar in the complicated EVAR octogenarians compared with the uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians. After uncomplicated EVAR, octogenarians had a similar survival compared with the RS controls (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.68-1.77), but after complicated EVAR their mortality risk increased significantly (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.06-3.54). CONCLUSION: After standard EVAR, the life expectancy of octogenarians is the same as that of a matched group from the general population without an AAA, provided they do not develop early post-operative complications. Patient selection and meticulous peri-operative care are key.

Diet quality and chronic axonal polyneuropathy: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between diet quality and chronic axonal polyneuropathy. METHODS: Between June 2013 and January 2017, among 1650 participants of the Rotterdam Study (median age 69.1 years, 54.2% women), diet quality was quantified based on food frequency questionnaires as a sum score of adherence (yes/no) to 14 components of the Dutch dietary guidelines. Presence of polyneuropathy was determined based on a questionnaire, neurological examination of the legs, and nerve conduction studies. We used logistic regression to associate diet quality with the presence of chronic axonal polyneuropathy and linear regression to associate with sural sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) amplitude in participants without polyneuropathy. Results were adjusted for age, sex, time between measurements, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, smoking, kidney function, and education. RESULTS: Overall diet quality was not associated with chronic axonal polyneuropathy (odds ratio [OR] = 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88; 1.12, P = 0.842), nor with sural SNAP amplitude in participants without polyneuropathy (difference = 0.01, 95% CI -0.14; 0.15, P = 0.993). Although not surviving multiple testing, a nominally significant association was found between salt intake ≤6 g/day and presence of chronic axonal polyneuropathy (OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.35; 0.86, P = 0.008). INTERPRETATION: We did not find an association between diet quality and chronic axonal polyneuropathy.

Genome-wide association analyses of risk tolerance and risky behaviors in over 1 million individuals identify hundreds of loci and shared genetic influences.

Humans vary substantially in their willingness to take risks. In a combined sample of over 1 million individuals, we conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of general risk tolerance, adventurousness, and risky behaviors in the driving, drinking, smoking, and sexual domains. Across all GWAS, we identified hundreds of associated loci, including 99 loci associated with general risk tolerance. We report evidence of substantial shared genetic influences across risk tolerance and the risky behaviors: 46 of the 99 general risk tolerance loci contain a lead SNP for at least one of our other GWAS, and general risk tolerance is genetically correlated ([Formula: see text] ~ 0.25 to 0.50) with a range of risky behaviors. Bioinformatics analyses imply that genes near SNPs associated with general risk tolerance are highly expressed in brain tissues and point to a role for glutamatergic and GABAergic neurotransmission. We found no evidence of enrichment for genes previously hypothesized to relate to risk tolerance.

Fine-mapping the effects of Alzheimer's disease risk loci on brain morphology.

The neural substrate of genetic risk variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains unknown. We studied their effect on healthy brain morphology to provide insight into disease etiology in the preclinical phase. We included 4071 nondemented, elderly participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging and genotyping. We performed voxel-based morphometry (VBM) on all gray-matter voxels for 19 previously identified, common AD risk variants. Whole-brain expression data from the Allen Human Brain Atlas was used to examine spatial overlap between VBM association results and expression of genes in AD risk loci regions. Brain regions most significantly associated with AD risk variants were the left postcentral gyrus with ABCA7 (rs4147929, p = 4.45 × 10-6), right superior frontal gyrus by ZCWPW1 (rs1476679, p = 5.12 × 10-6), and right postcentral gyrus by APOE (p = 6.91 × 10-6). Although no individual voxel passed multiple-testing correction, we found significant spatial overlap between the effects of AD risk loci on VBM and the expression of genes (MEF2C, CLU, and SLC24A4) in the Allen Brain Atlas. Results are available online on www.imagene.nl/ADSNPs/. In this single largest imaging genetics data set worldwide, we found that AD risk loci affect cortical gray matter in several brain regions known to be involved in AD, as well as regions that have not been implicated before.

Genome-wide association study for circulating levels of PAI-1 provides novel insights into its regulation.

We conducted a genome-wide association study to identify novel associations between genetic variants and circulating plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) concentration, and examined functional implications of variants and genes that were discovered. A discovery meta-analysis was performed in 19 599 subjects, followed by replication analysis of genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 10 796 independent samples. We further examined associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease, assessed the functional significance of the SNPs for gene expression in human tissues, and conducted RNA-silencing experiments for one novel association. We confirmed the association of the 4G/5G proxy SNP rs2227631 in the promoter region of SERPINE1 (7q22.1) and discovered genome-wide significant associations at 3 additional loci: chromosome 7q22.1 close to SERPINE1 (rs6976053, discovery P = 3.4 × 10(-10)); chromosome 11p15.2 within ARNTL (rs6486122, discovery P = 3.0 × 10(-8)); and chromosome 3p25.2 within PPARG (rs11128603, discovery P = 2.9 × 10(-8)). Replication was achieved for the 7q22.1 and 11p15.2 loci. There was nominal association with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease at ARNTL (P < .05). Functional studies identified MUC3 as a candidate gene for the second association signal on 7q22.1. In summary, SNPs in SERPINE1 and ARNTL and an SNP associated with the expression of MUC3 were robustly associated with circulating levels of PAI-1.

Genetic variants of the NOTCH3 gene in the elderly and magnetic resonance imaging correlates of age-related cerebral small vessel disease.

Cerebral small vessel disease-related brain lesions such as white matter lesions and lacunes are common findings of magnetic resonance imaging in the elderly. These lesions are thought to be major contributors to disability in old age, and risk factors that include age and hypertension have been established. The radiological, histopathologic and clinical phenotypes of age-related cerebral small vessel disease remarkably resemble autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leucoencephalopathy, which is caused by mutations in NOTCH3. We hypothesized that genetic variations in NOTCH3 also play a role in age-related cerebral small vessel disease. We directly sequenced all 33 exons, the promoter and 3'-untranslated region of NOTCH3 in 195 participants with either coalescent white matter lesions or lacunes and compared the results to 82 randomly selected participants with no focal changes on magnetic resonance images in the Austrian Stroke Prevention Study. We detected nine common and 33 rare single nucleotide polymorphisms, of which 20 were novel. All common single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped in the entire cohort (n = 888), and four of them, rs1043994, rs10404382, rs10423702 and rs1043997, were associated significantly with both the presence and progression of white matter lesions. The association was confined to hypertensives, a result which we replicated in the Cohorts for Heart and Ageing Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium on an independent sample of 4773 stroke-free hypertensive elderly individuals of European descent (P = 0.04). The 33 rare single nucleotide polymorphisms were scattered over the NOTCH3 gene with three being located in the promoter region, 24 in exons (18 non-synonymous), three in introns and three in the 3'-untranslated region. None of the single nucleotide polymorphisms affected a cysteine residue. Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant, PolyPhen2 analyses and protein structure simulation consistently predicted six of the non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (H170R, P496L, V1183M, L1518M, D1823N and V1952M) to be functional, with four being exclusively or mainly detected in subjects with severe white matter lesions. In four individuals with rare non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms, we noted anterior temporal lobe hyperintensity, hyperintensity in the external capsule, lacunar infarcts or subcortical lacunar lesions. None of the observed abnormalities were specific to cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leucoencephalopathy. This is the first comprehensive study investigating (i) the frequency of NOTCH3 variations in community-dwelling elderly and (ii) their effect on cerebral small vessel disease related magnetic resonance imaging phenotypes. We show that the NOTCH3 gene is highly variable with both common and rare single nucleotide polymorphisms spreading across the gene, and that common variants at the NOTCH3 gene increase the risk of age-related white matter lesions in hypertensives. Additional investigations are required to explore the biological mechanisms underlying the observed association.