Predicting exacerbations in COPD in the Danish general population.

BACKGROUND: Risk of exacerbations in individuals with mild chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the general population is less well described than in more advanced disease. We hypothesized that in addition to history of previous exacerbation also other clinical characteristics predict future moderate exacerbations. METHODS: In 96,462 individuals in the Copenhagen General Population Study, we identified 3175 with clinical COPD defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) < 0.70 and FEV1 <80% predicted in symptomatic individuals without asthma. We estimated the importance of age, sex, FEV1, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, chronic bronchitis, exacerbation history, comorbidities, cohabitation, body mass index, smoking, and blood eosinophils for the 1-year and 3-year future risk of moderate COPD exacerbations and developed a prediction tool for future exacerbations in COPD in the general population based on easily available clinical information. RESULTS: We observed 265 exacerbations in 2543 maintenance treatment naïve individuals with COPD and 197 exacerbations in 632 individuals with COPD on maintenance treatment. In the maintenance treatment naïve group, exacerbation history (hazard ratio (HR): 8.53), low FEV1 (HR: 4.82 for <30% predicted versus 50-79% predicted), and higher age (HR: 1.46 for ≥75 years versus <65 years) were significant predictors of future exacerbations. In the group on maintenance treatment, male sex and mMRC ≥2 also predicted higher risk with borderline significance. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to exacerbation history also higher age and lower FEV1 predict future exacerbation risk in COPD in the general population.

Tobacco Exposure and Efficacy of Biologic Therapy in Patients With Severe Asthma: A Nationwide Study From the Danish Severe Asthma Register.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials of biologics in severe, uncontrolled asthma have excluded patients with a cumulative tobacco exposure of more than 10 pack-years. Therefore, our knowledge of the impact of smoking exposure on the clinical effects of biologics in severe asthma remains incomplete. However, because many patients with asthma are current or former smokers, investigating the potential impacts of tobacco exposure on the effects of biologic treatment is clinically important. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking history and tobacco exposure on the effectiveness of biologic therapy in real-life patients with severe asthma. METHODS: We used data from a complete nationwide cohort of patients with severe asthma who were receiving biologics, the Danish Severe Asthma Register. We divided patients according to smoking history and cumulative tobacco exposure and analyzed data at baseline and after 12 months of biologic treatment. RESULTS: A total of 724 bio-naive patients were identified in the Danish Severe Asthma Register, 398 of whom had never been smokers (55%), 316 were previous smokers (44%), and 10 were current smokers (1%). Within the group of current and former smokers, 37% had 1 to 9 pack-years of tobacco exposure, 26% had 10 to 19 pack-years, and 37% had 20 or more pack-years of tobacco exposure. Patients with tobacco exposure had similar reductions in the number of exacerbations, reductions in maintenance oral corticosteroid use, and improvements in asthma symptoms compared with patients with 0 pack-years. CONCLUSION: Former smoking history and lifetime tobacco exposure do not have an impact on the efficacy of biologics in patients with severe asthma.

Impact of the metabolic syndrome on cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality in individuals with lung function impairment: a prospective cohort study of the Danish general population.

Background: Whether the metabolic syndrome plays a role for the prognosis of individuals with lung function impairment (preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) or airflow limitation) is unclear. We hypothesised that the metabolic syndrome in individuals with lung function impairment is associated with increased cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Methods: The Copenhagen General Population Study was initiated in 2003 based on a random sample of white men and women aged 20-100 years drawn from the Danish general population. The risk of ischemic heart disease/heart failure, respiratory disease, and all-cause mortality was analysed with Cox models adjusted for age, sex, current smoking, and asthma during 15 years of follow-up. Findings: Among 106,845 adults, 86,159 had normal lung function, 6126 had PRISm, and 14,560 had airflow limitation. We observed 10,448 hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 21,140 for respiratory disease, and 11,125 deaths. Individuals with versus individuals without the metabolic syndrome generally had higher 5-year absolute risk of all outcomes, including within those with normal lung function, mild-moderate-severe PRISm, and very mild-mild-moderate-severe airflow limitation alike. Compared to individuals without the metabolic syndrome and with normal lung function, those with both the metabolic syndrome and severe PRISm had hazard ratios of 3.74 (95% CI: 2.53-5.55; p < 0.0001) for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 5.02 (3.85-6.55; p < 0.0001) for respiratory disease, and 5.32 (3.76-7.54; p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality. Corresponding hazard ratios in those with both the metabolic syndrome and severe airflow limitation were 2.89 (2.34-3.58; p < 0.0001) for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 5.98 (5.28-6.78; p < 0.0001) for respiratory disease, and 4.16 (3.50-4.95; p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality, respectively. The metabolic syndrome explained 13% and 27% of the influence of PRISm or airflow limitation on ischemic heart disease/heart failure and all-cause mortality. Interpretation: The metabolic syndrome conferred increased risk of cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality at all levels of lung function impairment. Funding: Danish Lung Foundation, Danish Heart Foundation, Capital Region of Copenhagen, and Boehringer Ingelheim. JV is supported by the NIHR Manchester BRC.

Inhaled Corticosteroids in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Risk of Acquiring Streptococcus pneumoniae Infection. A Multiregional Epidemiological Study.

Background: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are associated with an increased risk of clinical pneumonia among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It is unknown whether the risk of microbiologically verified pneumonia such as pneumococcal pneumonia is increased in ICS users. Methods: The study population consists of all COPD patients followed in outpatient clinics in eastern Denmark during 2010-2017. ICS use was categorized into four categories based on accumulated use. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used adjusting for age, body mass index, sex, airflow limitation, use of oral corticosteroids, smoking, and year of cohort entry. A propensity score matched analysis was performed for sensitivity analyses. Findings: A total of 21,438 patients were included. Five hundred and eighty-two (2.6%) patients acquired a positive lower airway tract sample with S. pneumoniae during follow-up. In the multivariable analysis ICS-use was associated with a dose-dependent risk of S. pneumoniae as follows: low ICS dose: HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.45, p = 0.5; moderate ICS dose: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.90, p = 0.004; high ICS dose: HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.29, p < 0.0001, compared to no ICS use. Sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. Interpretation: Use of ICS in patients with severe COPD was associated with an increased and dose-dependent risk of acquiring S. pneumoniae, but only for moderate and high dose. Caution should be taken when administering high dose of ICS to patients with COPD. Low dose of ICS seemed not to carry this risk.

Antibiotic treatment adequacy and death among patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa airway infection.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of antibiotics on survival in patients with pulmonary Pseudomonas aeruginosa is controversial. The aim of this study is to i) determine the prevalence of adequate antibiotic treatment of P. aeruginosa in an unselected group of adult non-cystic fibrosis patients and ii) to assess the overall mortality in study patients treated with adequate vs. non-adequate antibiotics. METHODS: Prospective, observational study of all adult patients with culture verified P. aeruginosa from 1 January 2010-31 December 2012 in Region Zealand, Denmark. Patients with cystic fibrosis were excluded. Adequate therapy was defined as any antibiotic treatment including at least one antipseudomonal beta-lactam for a duration of at least 10 days. Furthermore, P. aeruginosa had to be tested susceptible to the given antipseudomonal drug and treatment had to be approved by senior clinician to fulfil the adequate-criteria. RESULTS: A total of 250 patients were identified with pulmonary P. aeruginosa. The vast majority (80%) were treated with non-adequate antibiotic therapy. All-cause mortality rate after 12 months was 49% in adequate treatment group vs. 52% in non-adequate treatment group. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, gender, bacteraemia, comorbidities and bronchiectasis showed no significant difference in mortality between treatment groups (adequate vs. non-adequate: hazard ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.59-1.52, P = 0.82). CONCLUSION: Adequate antipseudomonal therapy was only provided in a minority of patients with pulmonary P. aeruginosa. Adequate therapy did not independently predict a favourable outcome. New research initiatives are needed to improve the prognosis of this vulnerable group of patients.

Long-term prognosis of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease overlap in the Copenhagen City Heart study: a prospective population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Long-term prognosis of patients with characteristics of both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, named asthma-COPD overlap, is poorly described. We investigated the long-term prognosis of individuals with different types of chronic airway disease, with a special focus on individuals with asthma-COPD overlap. METHODS: We assigned participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study into six subgroups: healthy never-smokers, ever-smokers without asthma and COPD, those with asthma with low cumulated smoking exposure and no airflow limitation, those with COPD, those with asthma-COPD overlap with asthma onset before the age of 40 years, and those with asthma-COPD overlap with asthma onset after the age of 40 years. We defined asthma-COPD overlap as current self-reported asthma and a postbronchodilatatory forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) to forced vital capacity ratio of less than 0·7, without any restrictions regarding smoking. We investigated the course of FEV1 decline for 18 years and risk of admission to hospital due to exacerbations or pneumonias and respiratory and all-cause mortality for 22 years. We analysed FEV1 decline in the six groups using a linear mixed-effects model. FINDINGS: We included 8382 participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study in our study: 2199 never-smokers, 5435 ever-smokers, 158 with asthma, 320 with COPD, 68 with asthma-COPD overlap with early-onset asthma, and 202 with asthma-COPD overlap with late-onset asthma. The multivariable-adjusted decline in FEV1 in asthma-COPD overlap with early-onset asthma was 27·3 mL (standard error 5·0) per year, which did not differ significantly from the decline of 20·9 mL (1·2) per year in healthy never-smokers (p=0·19). FEV1 decline in individuals with asthma-COPD overlap with late-onset asthma was 49·6 mL (3·0) per year, higher than the decline in asthma-COPD overlap with early-onset asthma (p=0·0001), the decline of 39·5 mL (2·5) per year in COPD (p=0·003), and the decline in healthy never-smokers (p<0·0001). Hazard ratios for hospital admissions due to exacerbations of asthma or COPD were 39·48 (95% CI 25·93-60·11) in asthma-COPD overlap with early-onset asthma, 83·47 (61·67-112·98) in asthma-COPD overlap with late-onset asthma, 23·80 (17·43-33·50) in COPD, and 14·74 (10·06-21·59) in asthma compared with never-smokers without lung disease (all p<0·0001). Life expectancy was 9·3 years (5·4-13·1) shorter in participants with asthma-COPD overlap with early-onset asthma, 12·8 years (11·1-14·6) shorter in those with asthma-COPD overlap with late-onset asthma, 10·1 years (8·6-11·5) shorter in those with COPD (all p<0·0001), and 3·3 years (1·0-5·5) shorter in those with asthma (p=0·004) than in healthy never-smokers. INTERPRETATION: Prognosis of individuals with asthma-COPD overlap is poor and seems to be affected by the age of recognition of asthma, being worst in those with late asthma onset (after 40 years of age). Such patients should be followed up closely to prevent fast lung function decline and exacerbations. FUNDING: Capital Region of Copenhagen, Danish Heart Foundation, Danish Lung Foundation, Velux Foundation, AstraZeneca.

Socioeconomic status and prognosis of COPD in Denmark.

We investigated the association between length of school education and 5-year prognosis of chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD), including exacerbations, hospital admissions and survival. We used sample of general population from two independent population studies: The Copenhagen City Heart Study and Copenhagen General Population Study. A total of 6,590 individuals from general population of Copenhagen with COPD defined by the Global initiative for obstructive lung disease criteria were subdivided into 4 groups based on the length of school education: 1,590 with education < 8 years; 3,131 with education 8-10 years, 1,244 with more than 10 years, but no college/university education and 625 with college/university education. Compared with long education, short education was associated with current smoking (p < 0.001), higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms (p < 0.001) and lower forced expiratory volume in the first second in percent of predicted value (FEV1%pred) (p < 0.001). Adjusting for sex, age, FEV1%pred, dyspnea, frequency of previous exacerbations and smoking we observed that shortest school education (in comparison with university education), was associated with a higher risk of COPD exacerbations (hazards ratio 1.65, 95% CI 1.15-2.37) and higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazards ratio 1.96, 95% CI 1.28-2.99). We conclude that even in an economically well-developed country with a health care system (which is largely free of charge), low socioeconomic status, assessed as the length of school education, is associated with a poorer clinical prognosis of COPD.

Inflammatory biomarkers and exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

IMPORTANCE: Exacerbations of respiratory symptoms in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have profound and long-lasting adverse effects on patients. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers in individuals with stable COPD are associated with an increased risk of having exacerbations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort study examining 61,650 participants with spirometry measurements from the Copenhagen City Heart Study (2001-2003) and the Copenhagen General Population Study (2003-2008). Of these, 6574 had COPD, defined as a ratio between forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity below 0.7. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Baseline levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen and leukocyte count were measured in participants at a time when they were not experiencing symptoms of exacerbations. Exacerbations were recorded and defined as short-course treatment with oral corticosteroids alone or in combination with an antibiotic or as a hospital admission due to COPD. Levels of CRP and fibrinogen and leukocyte count were defined as high or low according to cut points of 3 mg/L, 14 µmol/L, and 9 ×10(9)/L, respectively. RESULTS: During follow-up, 3083 exacerbations were recorded (mean, 0.5/participant). In the first year of follow-up, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for having frequent exacerbations were 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7-2.2; 17 events/1000 person-years) for individuals with 1 high biomarker, 1.7 (95% CI, 0.9-3.2; 32 events/1000 person-years) for individuals with 2 high biomarkers, and 3.7 (95% CI, 1.9-7.4; 81 events/1000 person-years) for individuals with 3 high biomarkers compared with individuals who had no elevated biomarkers (9 events/1000 person-years; trend: P = 2 × 10(-5)). Corresponding hazard ratios using maximum follow-up time were 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.8), 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3-2.2), and 2.5 (95% CI, 1.8-3.4), respectively (trend: P = 1 × 10(-8)). The addition of inflammatory biomarkers to a basic model including age, sex, FEV1 percent predicted, smoking, use of any inhaled medication, body mass index, history of previous exacerbations, and time since most recent prior exacerbation improved the C statistics from 0.71 to 0.73 (comparison: P = 9 × 10(-5)). Relative risks were consistent in those with milder COPD, in those with no history of frequent exacerbations, and in the 2 studies separately. The highest 5-year absolute risks of having frequent exacerbations in those with 3 high biomarkers (vs no high biomarkers) were 62% (vs 24%) for those with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) grades C-D (n = 558), 98% (vs 64%) in those with a history of frequent exacerbations (n = 127), and 52% (vs 15%) for those with GOLD grades 3-4 (n = 465). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Simultaneously elevated levels of CRP and fibrinogen and leukocyte count in individuals with COPD were associated with increased risk of having exacerbations, even in those with milder COPD and in those without previous exacerbations. Further investigation is needed to determine the clinical value of these biomarkers for risk stratification.

Prediction of the clinical course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, using the new GOLD classification: a study of the general population.

RATIONALE: The new Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stratification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) into categories A, B, C, and D is based on symptoms, level of lung function, and history of exacerbations. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the abilities of this stratification to predict the clinical course of COPD. METHODS: Two similar population studies were performed in an area of Copenhagen including 6,628 individuals with COPD. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The patients were monitored for an average period of 4.3 years regarding COPD exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality. The percentages of individuals experiencing a COPD exacerbation during the first year of observation were 2.2% in group A, 5.8% in group B, 25.1% in group C, and 28.6% in group D. One- and 3-year mortality rates were 0.6 and 3.8%, respectively, in group A, 3.0 and 10.6% in group B, 0.7 and 8.2% in group C, and 3.4 and 20.1% in group D. Groups B and D, characterized by a higher degree of dyspnea than groups A and C, had five to eight times higher mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer than did groups A and C. CONCLUSIONS: The new stratification performs well by identifying individuals at risk of exacerbations. Surprisingly, subgroup B, characterized by more severe dyspnea, had significantly poorer survival than group C, in spite of a higher FEV(1) level. This subgroup warrants special attention, as the poor prognosis could be caused by cardiovascular disease or cancer, requiring additional assessment and treatment.