Integration of polygenic and gut metagenomic risk prediction for common diseases.

Multiomics has shown promise in noninvasive risk profiling and early detection of various common diseases. In the present study, in a prospective population-based cohort with ~18 years of e-health record follow-up, we investigated the incremental and combined value of genomic and gut metagenomic risk assessment compared with conventional risk factors for predicting incident coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), Alzheimer disease and prostate cancer. We found that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improved prediction over conventional risk factors for all diseases. Gut microbiome scores improved predictive capacity over baseline age for CAD, T2D and prostate cancer. Integrated risk models of PRSs, gut microbiome scores and conventional risk factors achieved the highest predictive performance for all diseases studied compared with models based on conventional risk factors alone. The present study demonstrates that integrated PRSs and gut metagenomic risk models improve the predictive value over conventional risk factors for common chronic diseases.

Harnessing human microbiomes for disease prediction.

The human microbiome has been increasingly recognized as having potential use for disease prediction. Predicting the risk, progression, and severity of diseases holds promise to transform clinical practice, empower patient decisions, and reduce the burden of various common diseases, as has been demonstrated for cardiovascular disease or breast cancer. Combining multiple modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors, including high-dimensional genomic data, has been traditionally favored, but few studies have incorporated the human microbiome into models for predicting the prospective risk of disease. Here, we review research into the use of the human microbiome for disease prediction with a particular focus on prospective studies as well as the modulation and engineering of the microbiome as a therapeutic strategy.

The gut microbiome is a significant risk factor for future chronic lung disease.

BACKGROUND: The gut-lung axis is generally recognized, but there are few large studies of the gut microbiome and incident respiratory disease in adults. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate the association and predictive capacity of the gut microbiome for incident asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Shallow metagenomic sequencing was performed for stool samples from a prospective, population-based cohort (FINRISK02; N = 7115 adults) with linked national administrative health register-derived classifications for incident asthma and COPD up to 15 years after baseline. Generalized linear models and Cox regressions were used to assess associations of microbial taxa and diversity with disease occurrence. Predictive models were constructed using machine learning with extreme gradient boosting. Models considered taxa abundances individually and in combination with other risk factors, including sex, age, body mass index, and smoking status. RESULTS: A total of 695 and 392 statistically significant associations were found between baseline taxonomic groups and incident asthma and COPD, respectively. Gradient boosting decision trees of baseline gut microbiome abundance predicted incident asthma and COPD in the validation data sets with mean area under the curves of 0.608 and 0.780, respectively. Cox analysis showed that the baseline gut microbiome achieved higher predictive performance than individual conventional risk factors, with C-indices of 0.623 for asthma and 0.817 for COPD. The integration of the gut microbiome and conventional risk factors further improved prediction capacities. CONCLUSIONS: The gut microbiome is a significant risk factor for incident asthma and incident COPD and is largely independent of conventional risk factors.

The NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog: knowledgebase and deposition resource.

The NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog (www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas) is a FAIR knowledgebase providing detailed, structured, standardised and interoperable genome-wide association study (GWAS) data to >200 000 users per year from academic research, healthcare and industry. The Catalog contains variant-trait associations and supporting metadata for >45 000 published GWAS across >5000 human traits, and >40 000 full P-value summary statistics datasets. Content is curated from publications or acquired via author submission of prepublication summary statistics through a new submission portal and validation tool. GWAS data volume has vastly increased in recent years. We have updated our software to meet this scaling challenge and to enable rapid release of submitted summary statistics. The scope of the repository has expanded to include additional data types of high interest to the community, including sequencing-based GWAS, gene-based analyses and copy number variation analyses. Community outreach has increased the number of shared datasets from under-represented traits, e.g. cancer, and we continue to contribute to awareness of the lack of population diversity in GWAS. Interoperability of the Catalog has been enhanced through links to other resources including the Polygenic Score Catalog and the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, refinements to GWAS trait annotation, and the development of a standard format for GWAS data.

Combined effects of host genetics and diet on human gut microbiota and incident disease in a single population cohort.

Human genetic variation affects the gut microbiota through a complex combination of environmental and host factors. Here we characterize genetic variations associated with microbial abundances in a single large-scale population-based cohort of 5,959 genotyped individuals with matched gut microbial metagenomes, and dietary and health records (prevalent and follow-up). We identified 567 independent SNP-taxon associations. Variants at the LCT locus associated with Bifidobacterium and other taxa, but they differed according to dairy intake. Furthermore, levels of Faecalicatena lactaris associated with ABO, and suggested preferential utilization of secreted blood antigens as energy source in the gut. Enterococcus faecalis levels associated with variants in the MED13L locus, which has been linked to colorectal cancer. Mendelian randomization analysis indicated a potential causal effect of Morganella on major depressive disorder, consistent with observational incident disease analysis. Overall, we identify and characterize the intricate nature of host-microbiota interactions and their association with disease.

Known allosteric proteins have central roles in genetic disease.

Allostery is a form of protein regulation, where ligands that bind sites located apart from the active site can modify the activity of the protein. The molecular mechanisms of allostery have been extensively studied, because allosteric sites are less conserved than active sites, and drugs targeting them are more specific than drugs binding the active sites. Here we quantify the importance of allostery in genetic disease. We show that 1) known allosteric proteins are central in disease networks, contribute to genetic disease and comorbidities much more than non-allosteric proteins, and there is an association between being allosteric and involvement in disease; 2) they are enriched in many major disease types like hematopoietic diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, or diseases of the central nervous system; 3) variants from cancer genome-wide association studies are enriched near allosteric proteins, indicating their importance to polygenic traits; and 4) the importance of allosteric proteins in disease is due, at least partly, to their central positions in protein-protein interaction networks, and less due to their dynamical properties.

Genomic risk prediction of coronary artery disease in women with breast cancer: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Advancements in cancer therapeutics have resulted in increases in cancer-related survival; however, there is a growing clinical dilemma. The current balancing of survival benefits and future cardiotoxic harms of oncotherapies has resulted in an increased burden of cardiovascular disease in breast cancer survivors. Risk stratification may help address this clinical dilemma. This study is the first to assess the association between a coronary artery disease-specific polygenic risk score and incident coronary artery events in female breast cancer survivors. METHODS: We utilized the Studies in Epidemiology and Research in Cancer Heredity prospective cohort involving 12,413 women with breast cancer with genotype information and without a baseline history of cardiovascular disease. Cause-specific hazard ratios for association of the polygenic risk score and incident coronary artery disease (CAD) were obtained using left-truncated Cox regression adjusting for age, genotype array, conventional risk factors such as smoking and body mass index, as well as other sociodemographic, lifestyle, and medical variables. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 10.3 years (IQR: 16.8) years, 750 incident fatal or non-fatal coronary artery events were recorded. A 1 standard deviation higher polygenic risk score was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.33 (95% CI 1.20, 1.47) for incident CAD. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that a coronary artery disease-specific polygenic risk score can risk-stratify breast cancer survivors independently of other established cardiovascular risk factors.

Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

Bacterial modification of the host glycosaminoglycan heparan sulfate modulates SARS-CoV-2 infectivity.

The human microbiota has a close relationship with human disease and it remodels components of the glycocalyx including heparan sulfate (HS). Studies of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein receptor binding domain suggest that infection requires binding to HS and angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in a codependent manner. Here, we show that commensal host bacterial communities can modify HS and thereby modulate SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding and that these communities change with host age and sex. Common human-associated commensal bacteria whose genomes encode HS-modifying enzymes were identified. The prevalence of these bacteria and the expression of key microbial glycosidases in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was lower in adult COVID-19 patients than in healthy controls. The presence of HS-modifying bacteria decreased with age in two large survey datasets, FINRISK 2002 and American Gut, revealing one possible mechanism for the observed increase in COVID-19 susceptibility with age. In vitro , bacterial glycosidases from unpurified culture media supernatants fully blocked SARS-CoV-2 spike binding to human H1299 protein lung adenocarcinoma cells. HS-modifying bacteria in human microbial communities may regulate viral adhesion, and loss of these commensals could predispose individuals to infection. Understanding the impact of shifts in microbial community composition and bacterial lyases on SARS-CoV-2 infection may lead to new therapeutics and diagnosis of susceptibility.

Luminal microbiota related to Crohn's disease recurrence after surgery.

BACKGROUND: Microbial factors are likely to be involved in the recurrence of Crohn's disease (CD) after bowel resection. We investigated the luminal microbiota before and longitudinally after surgery, in relation to disease recurrence, using 16S metagenomic techniques. METHODS: In the prospective Post-Operative Crohn's Endoscopic Recurrence (POCER) study, fecal samples were obtained before surgery and 6, 12, and 18 months after surgery from 130 CD patients. Endoscopy was undertaken to detect disease recurrence, defined as Rutgeerts score ≥i2, at 6 months in two-thirds of patients and all patients at 18 months after surgery. The V2 region of the 16S rRNA gene was sequenced using Illumina MiSeq. Cluster analysis was performed at family level, assessing microbiome community differences between patients with and without recurrence. RESULTS: Six microbial cluster groups were identified. The cluster associated with maintenance of remission was enriched for the Lachnospiraceae family [adjusted OR 0.47 (0.27-0.82), P = .007]. The OTU diversity of Lachnospiraceae within this cluster was significantly greater than in all other clusters. The cluster enriched for Enterobacteriaceae was associated with an increased risk of disease recurrence [adjusted OR 6.35 (1.24-32.44), P = .026]. OTU diversity of Enterobacteriaceae within this cluster was significantly greater than in other clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Luminal bacterial communities are associated with protection from, and the occurrence of, Crohn's disease recurrence after surgery. Recurrence may relate to a higher abundance of facultatively anaerobic pathobionts from the Enterobacteriaceae family. The ecologic change of depleted Lachnospiraceae, a genus of butyrate-producing bacteria, may permit expansion of Enterobacteriaceae through luminal environmental perturbation.

Genomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke.

Recent genome-wide association studies in stroke have enabled the generation of genomic risk scores (GRS) but their predictive power has been modest compared to established stroke risk factors. Here, using a meta-scoring approach, we develop a metaGRS for ischaemic stroke (IS) and analyse this score in the UK Biobank (n = 395,393; 3075 IS events by age 75). The metaGRS hazard ratio for IS (1.26, 95% CI 1.22-1.31 per metaGRS standard deviation) doubles that of a previous GRS, identifying a subset of individuals at monogenic levels of risk: the top 0.25% of metaGRS have three-fold risk of IS. The metaGRS is similarly or more predictive compared to several risk factors, such as family history, blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking. We estimate the reductions needed in modifiable risk factors for individuals with different levels of genomic risk and suggest that, for individuals with high metaGRS, achieving risk factor levels recommended by current guidelines may be insufficient to mitigate risk.

Towards clinical utility of polygenic risk scores.

Prediction of disease risk is an essential part of preventative medicine, often guiding clinical management. Risk prediction typically includes risk factors such as age, sex, family history of disease and lifestyle (e.g. smoking status); however, in recent years, there has been increasing interest to include genomic information into risk models. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the effects of many genetic variants across the human genome into a single score and have recently been shown to have predictive value for multiple common diseases. In this review, we summarize the potential use cases for seven common diseases (breast cancer, prostate cancer, coronary artery disease, obesity, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and Alzheimer's disease) where PRS has or could have clinical utility. PRS analysis for these diseases frequently revolved around (i) risk prediction performance of a PRS alone and in combination with other non-genetic risk factors, (ii) estimation of lifetime risk trajectories, (iii) the independent information of PRS and family history of disease or monogenic mutations and (iv) estimation of the value of adding a PRS to specific clinical risk prediction scenarios. We summarize open questions regarding PRS usability, ancestry bias and transferability, emphasizing the need for the next wave of studies to focus on the implementation and health-economic value of PRS testing. In conclusion, it is becoming clear that PRS have value in disease risk prediction and there are multiple areas where this may have clinical utility.

Genomic Risk Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease in 480,000 Adults: Implications for Primary Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) has substantial heritability and a polygenic architecture. However, the potential of genomic risk scores to help predict CAD outcomes has not been evaluated comprehensively, because available studies have involved limited genomic scope and limited sample sizes. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to construct a genomic risk score for CAD and to estimate its potential as a screening tool for primary prevention. METHODS: Using a meta-analytic approach to combine large-scale, genome-wide, and targeted genetic association data, we developed a new genomic risk score for CAD (metaGRS) consisting of 1.7 million genetic variants. We externally tested metaGRS, both by itself and in combination with available data on conventional risk factors, in 22,242 CAD cases and 460,387 noncases from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for CAD was 1.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.68 to 1.73) per SD increase in metaGRS, an association larger than any other externally tested genetic risk score previously published. The metaGRS stratified individuals into significantly different life course trajectories of CAD risk, with those in the top 20% of metaGRS distribution having an HR of 4.17 (95% CI: 3.97 to 4.38) compared with those in the bottom 20%. The corresponding HR was 2.83 (95% CI: 2.61 to 3.07) among individuals on lipid-lowering or antihypertensive medications. The metaGRS had a higher C-index (C = 0.623; 95% CI: 0.615 to 0.631) for incident CAD than any of 6 conventional factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, self-reported high cholesterol, and family history). For men in the top 20% of metaGRS with >2 conventional factors, 10% cumulative risk of CAD was reached by 48 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The genomic score developed and evaluated here substantially advances the concept of using genomic information to stratify individuals with different trajectories of CAD risk and highlights the potential for genomic screening in early life to complement conventional risk prediction.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Genetic Risk Factors for Rheumatic Heart Disease in Aboriginal Australians Provides Support for Pathogenic Molecular Mimicry.

Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) after group A streptococcus (GAS) infections is heritable and prevalent in Indigenous populations. Molecular mimicry between human and GAS proteins triggers proinflammatory cardiac valve-reactive T cells. Methods: Genome-wide genetic analysis was undertaken in 1263 Aboriginal Australians (398 RHD cases; 865 controls). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped using Illumina HumanCoreExome BeadChips. Direct typing and imputation was used to fine-map the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region. Epitope binding affinities were mapped for human cross-reactive GAS proteins, including M5 and M6. Results: The strongest genetic association was intronic to HLA-DQA1 (rs9272622; P = 1.86 × 10-7). Conditional analyses showed rs9272622 and/or DQA1*AA16 account for the HLA signal. HLA-DQA1*0101_DQB1*0503 (odds ratio [OR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.90; P = 9.56 × 10-3) and HLA-DQA1*0103_DQB1*0601 (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.52; P = 7.15 × 10-3) were risk haplotypes; HLA_DQA1*0301-DQB1*0402 (OR 0.30, 95%CI 0.14-0.65, P = 2.36 × 10-3) was protective. Human myosin cross-reactive N-terminal and B repeat epitopes of GAS M5/M6 bind with higher affinity to DQA1/DQB1 alpha/beta dimers for the 2-risk haplotypes than the protective haplotype. Conclusions: Variation at HLA_DQA1-DQB1 is the major genetic risk factor for RHD in Aboriginal Australians studied here. Cross-reactive epitopes bind with higher affinity to alpha/beta dimers formed by risk haplotypes, supporting molecular mimicry as the key mechanism of RHD pathogenesis.

Experimental and Human Evidence for Lipocalin-2 (Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin [NGAL]) in the Development of Cardiac Hypertrophy and heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac hypertrophy increases the risk of developing heart failure and cardiovascular death. The neutrophil inflammatory protein, lipocalin-2 (LCN2/NGAL), is elevated in certain forms of cardiac hypertrophy and acute heart failure. However, a specific role for LCN2 in predisposition and etiology of hypertrophy and the relevant genetic determinants are unclear. Here, we defined the role of LCN2 in concentric cardiac hypertrophy in terms of pathophysiology, inflammatory expression networks, and genomic determinants. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used 3 experimental models: a polygenic model of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure, a model of intrauterine growth restriction and Lcn2-knockout mouse; cultured cardiomyocytes; and 2 human cohorts: 114 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and 2064 healthy subjects of the YFS (Young Finns Study). In hypertrophic heart rats, cardiac and circulating Lcn2 was significantly overexpressed before, during, and after development of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure. Lcn2 expression was increased in hypertrophic hearts in a model of intrauterine growth restriction, whereas Lcn2-knockout mice had smaller hearts. In cultured cardiomyocytes, Lcn2 activated molecular hypertrophic pathways and increased cell size, but reduced proliferation and cell numbers. Increased LCN2 was associated with cardiac hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction in diabetes mellitus. In the YFS, LCN2 expression was associated with body mass index and cardiac mass and with levels of inflammatory markers. The single-nucleotide polymorphism, rs13297295, located near LCN2 defined a significant cis-eQTL for LCN2 expression. CONCLUSIONS: Direct effects of LCN2 on cardiomyocyte size and number and the consistent associations in experimental and human analyses reveal a central role for LCN2 in the ontogeny of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure.

Interactions within the MHC contribute to the genetic architecture of celiac disease.

Interaction analysis of GWAS can detect signal that would be ignored by single variant analysis, yet few robust interactions in humans have been detected. Recent work has highlighted interactions in the MHC region between known HLA risk haplotypes for various autoimmune diseases. To better understand the genetic interactions underlying celiac disease (CD), we have conducted exhaustive genome-wide scans for pairwise interactions in five independent CD case-control studies, using a rapid model-free approach to examine over 500 billion SNP pairs in total. We found 14 independent interaction signals within the MHC region that achieved stringent replication criteria across multiple studies and were independent of known CD risk HLA haplotypes. The strongest independent CD interaction signal corresponded to genes in the HLA class III region, in particular PRRC2A and GPANK1/C6orf47, which are known to contain variants for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and early menopause, co-morbidities of celiac disease. Replicable evidence for statistical interaction outside the MHC was not observed. Both within and between European populations, we observed striking consistency of two-locus models and model distribution. Within the UK population, models of CD based on both interactions and additive single-SNP effects increased explained CD variance by approximately 1% over those of single SNPs. The interactions signal detected across the five cohorts indicates the presence of novel associations in the MHC region that cannot be detected using additive models. Our findings have implications for the determination of genetic architecture and, by extension, the use of human genetics for validation of therapeutic targets.

Microbial Factors Associated with Postoperative Crohn's Disease Recurrence.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The intestinal microbiota is a key antigenic driver in Crohn's disease [CD]. We aimed to identify changes in the gut microbiome associated with, and predictive of, disease recurrence and remission. METHODS: A total of 141 mucosal biopsy samples from 34 CD patients were obtained at surgical resection and at colonoscopy 6 and/or 18 months postoperatively; 28 control samples were obtained: 12 from healthy patients [healthy controls] and 16 from hemicolectomy patients [surgical controls]. Bacterial 16S ribosomal profiling was performed using the Illumina MiSeq platform. RESULTS: CD was associated with reduced alpha diversity when compared with healthy controls but not surgical controls [p < 0.001 and p = 0.666, respectively]. Beta diversity [composition] differed significantly between CD and both healthy [p < 0.001] and surgical [p = 0.022] controls, but did not differ significantly between those with and without endoscopic recurrence. There were significant taxonomic differences between recurrence and remission. Patients experiencing recurrence demonstrated elevated Proteus genera [p = 0.008] and reduced Faecalibacterium [p< 0.001]. Active smoking was associated with elevated levels of Proteus [p = 0.013] postoperatively. Low abundance of Faecalibacterium [< 0.1%] and detectable Proteus in the postoperative ileal mucosa was associated with a higher risk of recurrence (odds ratio [OR] 14 [1.7-110], p = 0.013 and 13 [1.1-150], p = 0.039, respectively) when corrected for smoking. A model of recurrence comprising the presence of Proteus, abundance of Faecalibacterium, and smoking status showed moderate accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] 0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.69-0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: CD is associated with a microbial signature distinct from health. Microbial factors and smoking independently influence postoperative CD recurrence. The genus Proteus may play a role in the development of CD.

Genomic prediction of coronary heart disease.

AIMS: Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: We generated a GRS of 49 310 SNPs based on a CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis of CHD, then independently tested it using five prospective population cohorts (three FINRISK cohorts, combined n = 12 676, 757 incident CHD events; two Framingham Heart Study cohorts (FHS), combined n = 3406, 587 incident CHD events). The GRS was associated with incident CHD (FINRISK HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.86 per S.D. of GRS; Framingham HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.18-1.38), and was largely unchanged by adjustment for known risk factors, including family history. Integration of the GRS with the FRS or ACC/AHA13 scores improved the 10 years risk prediction (meta-analysis C-index: +1.5-1.6%, P < 0.001), particularly for individuals ≥60 years old (meta-analysis C-index: +4.6-5.1%, P < 0.001). Importantly, the GRS captured substantially different trajectories of absolute risk, with men in the top 20% of attaining 10% cumulative CHD risk 12-18 y earlier than those in the bottom 20%. High genomic risk was partially compensated for by low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, and non-smoking. CONCLUSIONS: A GRS based on a large number of SNPs improves CHD risk prediction and encodes different trajectories of lifetime risk not captured by traditional clinical risk scores.

Transcriptional profiling of mouse B cell terminal differentiation defines a signature for antibody-secreting plasma cells.

When B cells encounter an antigen, they alter their physiological state and anatomical localization and initiate a differentiation process that ultimately produces antibody-secreting cells (ASCs). We have defined the transcriptomes of many mature B cell populations and stages of plasma cell differentiation in mice. We provide a molecular signature of ASCs that highlights the stark transcriptional divide between B cells and plasma cells and enables the demarcation of ASCs on the basis of location and maturity. Changes in gene expression correlated with cell-division history and the acquisition of permissive histone modifications, and they included many regulators that had not been previously implicated in B cell differentiation. These findings both highlight and expand the core program that guides B cell terminal differentiation and the production of antibodies.