Risk Factors for Mortality From Aortic Aneurysm and Dissection: Results From a 26-Year Follow-Up of a Community-Based Population.

Background Aortic aneurysm rupture and acute aortic dissection are life-threatening conditions and represent an ever-growing public health challenge. Comprehensive epidemiologic investigations for their risk factors are scant. We aimed to investigate risk factors associated with mortality from aortic diseases through analysis of a community-based Japanese cohort. Methods and Results IPHS (Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study) comprises 95 723 participants who took part in municipal health checkups in 1993. Factors considered for analysis included age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids (high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides), diabetes, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drug use, and smoking and drinking habits. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the associations between these variables and mortality from aortic diseases. During the median 26-year follow-up, 190 participants died of aortic aneurysm rupture, and 188 died of aortic dissection. An increased multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for mortality from total aortic diseases was observed for high systolic blood pressure (1.61 [1.00-2.59]), diastolic blood pressure (2.95 [1.95-4.48]), high non-HDL cholesterol (1.63 [1.19-2.24]), low HDL cholesterol (1.86 [1.29-2.68]), and heavy (>20 cigarettes/day) smoking habit (2.46 [1.66-3.63]). A lower multivariable HR was observed for diabetes (0.50 [0.28-0.89]). Conclusions Smoking habit, higher systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure levels, higher non-HDL, and lower HDL cholesterol levels were positively associated with mortality from total aortic diseases, whereas diabetes was inversely associated.

Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population.

Background Lifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors. Methods and Results We analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan-Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person-years of follow-up were included. The lifetime risk at the index-age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%-11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%-21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%-11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%-18.1%] for women). Conclusions The magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short-term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.

Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Matter and Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Japan: The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study (IPHS).

AIM: To examine the association between long-term exposure to suspended particulate matter (SPM) and cardiovascular mortality in Japan after controlling for known major confounding factors among a large middle and elderly cohort study in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. METHODS: We followed 91,808 residents (men 34%) who undertook a national health check-up at age 40-79 years for 17 years (1993-2010). Two different exposure indices were adopted: baseline SPM concentration (in the year 1990) and average SPM concentration for the first (average of 1990 and 1995) and the second half (average of 2005 to 2009) of the study period. Sex-specific adjusted risk ratios (RRs) for cardiovascular mortality were calculated using general mixed Poisson regression models after adjusting the age, BMI, history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension, creatinine, glutamic pyruvic transaminase, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, and temperature. The variation between seven medical administration areas was also taken into account as a random effect. RESULTS: Baseline SPM concentration was associated with an increased risk of mortality from all cardiovascular diseases, coronary artery disease, and stroke. The adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval [CI]) per 10 µg/m3 increase in SPM concentration for all cardiovascular mortality were 1.147 (1.014-1.300) for men and 1.097 (0.985-1.222) for women. The point estimate of RR was highest for non-hemorrhagic stroke in men (1.248 [0.991-1.571]), although CI overlapped the unity. The RRs seemed slightly lower in the second half than in the first half, though the CIs widened in the second half. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that long-term exposure to SPM is associated with an increased risk of all cardiovascular mortality for men in Ibaraki, Japan.

Association of Diabetes With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of More Than 1 Million Participants.

Importance: Asia is home to the largest diabetic populations in the world. However, limited studies have quantified the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asian populations. Objectives: To evaluate the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia and to investigate potential effect modifications of the diabetes-mortality associations by participants' age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pooled analysis incorporated individual participant data from 22 prospective cohort studies of the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted between 1963 and 2006. A total of 1 002 551 Asian individuals (from mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, India, and Bangladesh) were followed up for more than 3 years. Cohort-specific hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated using Cox regression models and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Analysis was conducted between January 10, 2018, and August 31, 2018. Exposures: Doctor-diagnosed diabetes, age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results: Of 1 002 551 participants (518 537 [51.7%] female; median [range] age, 54.0 [30.0-98.0] years), 148 868 deaths were ascertained during a median (range) follow-up of 12.6 (3.0-38.9) years. The overall prevalence of diabetes reported at baseline was 4.8% for men and 3.6% for women. Patients with diabetes had a 1.89-fold risk of all-cause death compared with patients without diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.74-2.04), with the highest relative risk of death due to diabetes itself (HR, 22.8; 95% CI, 18.5-28.1), followed by renal disease (HR, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.50-3.78), coronary heart disease (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 2.19-3.02), and ischemic stroke (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.85-2.51). The adverse diabetes-mortality associations were more evident among women (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.89-2.32) than among men (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.62-1.88) (P for interaction < .001) and more evident among adults aged 30 to 49 years (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.08-2.84) than among adults aged 70 years and older (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.40-1.62) (P for interaction < .001). A similar pattern of association was found between diabetes and cause-specific mortality, with significant variations noted by sex and age. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that diabetes was associated with increased risk of death from several diseases among Asian populations. Development and implementation of diabetes management programs are urgently needed to reduce the burden of diabetes in Asia.

Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Meta-analysis.

Importance: Understanding birth cohort-specific tobacco smoking patterns and their association with total and cause-specific mortality is important for projecting future deaths due to tobacco smoking across Asian populations. Objectives: To assess secular trends of tobacco smoking by countries or regions and birth cohorts and evaluate the consequent mortality in Asian populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pooled meta-analysis was based on individual participant data from 20 prospective cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Between September 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018, a total of 1 002 258 Asian individuals 35 years or older were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. The pooled results were presented for mainland China; Japan; Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and India. Exposures: Tobacco use status, age at starting smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and age at quitting smoking. Main Outcomes and Measures: Country or region and birth cohort-specific mortality and the population attributable risk for deaths from all causes and from lung cancer. Results: Of 1 002 258 participants (51.1% women and 48.9% men; mean [SD] age at baseline, 54.6 [10.4] years), 144 366 deaths (9158 deaths from lung cancer) were ascertained during a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.7 (5.3) years. Smoking prevalence for men steadily increased in China and India, whereas it plateaued in Japan and Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Among Asian male smokers, the mean age at starting smoking decreased in successive birth cohorts, while the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. These changes were associated with an increasing relative risk of death in association with current smoking in successive birth cohorts of pre-1920, 1920s, and 1930 or later, with hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.37) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.61) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.57-1.84) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. The hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality were 3.38 (95% CI, 2.25-5.07) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 4.74 (95% CI, 3.56-6.32) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 4.80 (95% CI, 3.71-6.19) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking accounted for 12.5% (95% CI, 8.4%-16.3%) of all-cause mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 21.1% (95% CI, 17.3%-24.9%) of all-cause mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.3%) of all-cause mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking among men accounted for 56.6% (95% CI, 44.7%-66.3%) of lung cancer mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 66.6% (95% CI, 58.3%-73.5%) of lung cancer mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 68.4% (95% CI, 61.3%-74.4%) of lung cancer mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. For women, tobacco smoking patterns and lung cancer mortality varied substantially by countries and regions. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, mortality associated with tobacco smoking continued to increase among Asian men in recent birth cohorts, indicating that tobacco smoking will remain a major public health problem in most Asian countries in the coming decades. Implementing comprehensive tobacco-control programs is warranted to end the tobacco epidemic.

Validity of a Risk Prediction Equation for CKD After 10 Years of Follow-up in a Japanese Population: The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important health problem for which risk equations have been developed for Western populations. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction equation for CKD in a Japanese population. STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: The study included 135,007 participants who completed an annual health checkup in 1993 to 1996 in the Ibaraki Prefecture in Japan. Participants were initially free of CKD (defined as stage 3, 4, or 5 CKD or proteinuria [2+ or 3+] by dipstick). Follow-up information was available from health checkups 10 years after the initial evaluation. We used data from 40,963 women and 17,892 men in the northern region of the prefecture for the development of risk prediction equations and 53,042 women and 23,110 men in the southern region for external validation. PREDICTORS: Age, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index, proteinuria, hematuria, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and drinking. OUTCOME: Occurrence of CKD (defined as eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2 and/or proteinuria [2+ or 3+] by dipstick). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Logistic regression analysis to estimate risk for CKD stratified by sex. RESULTS: During follow-up, 7,500 cases of CKD developed in the northern region and 8,964, in the southern region. Older age, proteinuria (1+), higher systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, and current smoking were associated with increased risk for CKD in both sexes, whereas higher eGFR and daily alcohol intake were associated with lower risk. C statistics of risk estimation equations for CKD at 10 years were >0.8 for both the development and external validation populations, and discrimination of the risk estimation was fairly good in women and men. LIMITATIONS: Fluctuations in variables were not evaluated because the study used annual health checkups. This study excluded a large number of people for whom a 10-year health checkup was not available. CONCLUSIONS: Estimations of risk for CKD after 10 years of follow-up in a general Japanese population can be achieved with a high level of validity.

Impact and attribute of each obesity-related cardiovascular risk factor in combination with abdominal obesity on total health expenditures in adult Japanese National Health insurance beneficiaries: The Ibaraki Prefectural health study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the attribution of each cardiovascular risk factor in combination with abdominal obesity (AO) on Japanese health expenditures. METHODS: The health insurance claims of 43,469 National Health Insurance beneficiaries aged 40-75 years in Ibaraki, Japan, from the second cohort of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study were followed-up from 2009 through 2013. Multivariable health expenditure ratios (HERs) of diabetes mellitus (DM), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and hypertension with and without AO were calculated with reference to no risk factors using a Tweedie regression model. RESULTS: Without AO, HERs were 1.58 for DM, 1.06 for high LDL-C, 1.27 for low HDL-C, and 1.31 for hypertension (all P < 0.05). With AO, HERs were 1.15 for AO, 1.42 for DM, 1.03 for high LDL-C, 1.11 for low HDL-C, and 1.26 for hypertension (all P < 0.05, except high LDL-C). Without AO, population attributable fractions (PAFs) were 2.8% for DM, 0.8% for high LDL-C, 0.7% for low HDL-C, and 6.5% for hypertension. With AO, PAFs were 1.0% for AO, 2.3% for DM, 0.4% for low HDL-C, and 5.0% for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Of the obesity-related cardiovascular risk factors, hypertension, independent of AO, appears to impose the greatest burden on Japanese health expenditures.

Burden of total and cause-specific mortality related to tobacco smoking among adults aged ≥ 45 years in Asia: a pooled analysis of 21 cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Duration of cigarette smoking is a risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer mortality among Japanese men and women: the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study (IPHS).

PURPOSE: The relationship between duration of cigarette smoking and the risk of oropharyngeal cancer has not been studied in the general Japanese population. Thus, the aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between the duration of cigarette smoking and the risk of oropharyngeal cancer mortality in the Japanese population. METHODS: In this large cohort study, 32,989 men and 63,894 women, ages 40-79 years, who completed health check-ups in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, in 1993 were followed through 2008. Oropharyngeal cancer mortality was identified by death certificates. Smoking habits were divided into five categories, and years of cigarette smoking and pack-year classifications were divided into four categories. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for oropharyngeal cancer mortality were calculated by use of the Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, deaths from oropharyngeal cancer occurred in 38 of 32,989 men and 31 of 63,894 women. The multivariate hazard ratios for oropharyngeal cancer mortality were significantly greater for those subjects currently smoking for 40 years or longer (hazard ratio: 4.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.23-14.51), and they were greater with longer years of cigarette smoking among men (P for trend = .027). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking duration can be a risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer mortality in the Japanese population.

Low serum LDL cholesterol levels are associated with elevated mortality from liver cancer in Japan: the Ibaraki Prefectural health study.

Liver cancer a global public health concern and well known for poor prognosis. The association between low total cholesterol level and liver cancer has been reported. However, the association between low low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels and liver cancer is still unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between LDL cholesterol level and liver cancer mortality. A total of 16,217 persons (5,551 men and 10,666 women) aged 40-79 years in 1993 were followed until 2008. LDL cholesterol levels were divided into four categories (<80 mg/dl, 80-99 mg/dl, 100-119 mg/dl, and ≥120 mg/dl). Hazard ratio of LDL cholesterol level for liver cancer mortality was calculated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Covariates were age, sex, alanine transaminase, body mass index, alcohol intake and smoking status, all of which were correlated with LDL cholesterol levels. There were 51 deaths (32 men and 19 women) from liver cancer. Multivariable hazard ratios of liver cancer deaths for LDL cholesterol levels of <80 mg/dl was 4.33 (95% confident interval [CI]: 1.94, 9.68), for LDL cholesterol levels of 80-99 mg/dl was 1.03 (95% CI: 0.42, 2.53), and for LDL cholesterol levels of ≥120 mg/dl was 0.43 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.92) compared with LDL cholesterol levels of 100-199 mg/dl (p for trend<0.01). Therefore, low LDL cholesterol levels are associated with elevated risk of liver cancer mortality. Low LDL cholesterol may be a predictive marker for death due to liver cancer.

Influence of smoking combined with another risk factor on the risk of mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke: pooled analysis of 10 Japanese cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: In spite of the importance of a multifactorial approach to preventing cardiovascular disease in smokers, most information on the combined adverse effects of smoking and hypertension or high serum cholesterol on cardiovascular disease has been derived from Western populations, and coronary heart disease was often used as the only endpoint. Therefore, the present large-scale pooled analysis attempted to provide reliable information on the adverse effects of the coexistence of smoking and hypertension or high serum cholesterol on the risk of mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke in both, individuals and the entire population in Japan. METHODS: A total of 27,385 male and 39,207 female participants aged 40-89 years were enrolled from 10 well-qualified Japanese cohort studies with a mean follow-up of 10.1 years. Hazard ratios and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals in smokers who had hypertension or high serum cholesterol were estimated for men and women separately using a Cox proportional hazards regression model that included age, body mass index, cohort and either serum total cholesterol or systolic blood pressure as covariates. Fractions of deaths attributable to the coexistence of these risk factors were also calculated. RESULTS: The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios in male and female current smokers with hypertension, compared with those with neither factor were 2.57 (95% confidence intervals, 1.51-4.38) and 6.14 (3.49-10.79) for coronary heart disease, and 3.28 (1.89-5.71) and 1.61 (0.81-3.18) for cerebral infarction, respectively. The fractions of deaths attributable to the coexistence of current smoking and hypertension in men and women were 24.6 and 9.6% for coronary heart disease and 28.1 and 2.0% for cerebral infarction, respectively. Smokers with high serum cholesterol were broadly comparable to hypertensive smokers only with respect to coronary mortality risk; the hazard ratios, compared with those with neither factor were 4.19 (2.33-7.53) for men and 3.90 (1.57-9.67) for women. The fraction of coronary deaths attributable to the coexistence of current smoking and high serum cholesterol was 6.3% in men and 2.2% in women. There was no interaction between smoking habit and blood pressure or serum total cholesterol for these two subtypes in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Particular attention should be given to smokers who have concomitant hypertension or high serum cholesterol for preventing deaths due to cardiovascular disease. From a public health perspective in Japan, priority should be given to hypertensive smokers, since this group makes a large contribution to the burden of both coronary and cerebral infarction deaths.

Association between body-mass index and risk of death in more than 1 million Asians.

BACKGROUND: Most studies that have evaluated the association between the body-mass index (BMI) and the risks of death from any cause and from specific causes have been conducted in populations of European origin. METHODS: We performed pooled analyses to evaluate the association between BMI and the risk of death among more than 1.1 million persons recruited in 19 cohorts in Asia. The analyses included approximately 120,700 deaths that occurred during a mean follow-up period of 9.2 years. Cox regression models were used to adjust for confounding factors. RESULTS: In the cohorts of East Asians, including Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans, the lowest risk of death was seen among persons with a BMI (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) in the range of 22.6 to 27.5. The risk was elevated among persons with BMI levels either higher or lower than that range--by a factor of up to 1.5 among those with a BMI of more than 35.0 and by a factor of 2.8 among those with a BMI of 15.0 or less. A similar U-shaped association was seen between BMI and the risks of death from cancer, from cardiovascular diseases, and from other causes. In the cohorts comprising Indians and Bangladeshis, the risks of death from any cause and from causes other than cancer or cardiovascular disease were increased among persons with a BMI of 20.0 or less, as compared with those with a BMI of 22.6 to 25.0, whereas there was no excess risk of either death from any cause or cause-specific death associated with a high BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Underweight was associated with a substantially increased risk of death in all Asian populations. The excess risk of death associated with a high BMI, however, was seen among East Asians but not among Indians and Bangladeshis.

Age-stratified analysis of the impact of hypertension on National Health Insurance Medical Expenditures in Ibaraki, Japan.

BACKGROUND: This retrospective cohort study examined the sex- and age-specific impact of hypertension on medical expenditures. METHODS: In 2006, we analyzed the medical expenditure records of 42 426 Japanese National Health Insurance beneficiaries (16 169 men, 26 257 women) who lived in Ibaraki, Japan, were aged 40 to 69 years, and underwent health checkups in 2002. Blood pressure was classified into 4 categories according to the criteria outlined in the seventh report of the Joint National Committee. RESULTS: The difference in median total expenditure between the hypertension categories and the normotension category was 119 585 yen (140 360 yen vs 20 775 yen) for men aged 40 to 54 years, 126 160 yen (204 070 yen vs 77 910 yen) for men aged 55 to 69 years, 125 495 yen (158 025 yen vs 32 530 yen) for women aged 40 to 54 years, and 122 370 yen (208 700 yen vs 86 330 yen) for women aged 55 to 69 years. The median total and outpatient medical expenditures markedly differed between patients with stage 1 hypertension and stage 2 hypertension (which included people on antihypertensive medication) in both sexes and all age subgroups. The median total and outpatient medical expenditures were higher among women than among men in all blood pressure categories. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of hypertension on medical expenditures was similar in all age groups. Therefore, from the perspective of medical economics, prevention of the onset of hypertension seems equally important for all age subgroups.

Age- and gender-specific BMI in terms of the lowest mortality in Japanese general population.

OBJECTIVE: The primary purposes of our study were to establish age- and gender-specific BMIs in terms of lowest mortality (risk nadir BMIs) for the Japanese population, and to then compare those to (i) BMIs for whites as determined by similar studies and to (ii) the official BMI guidelines. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: A total of 32,060 men and 61,916 women aged 40-79 years underwent health check-ups in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan, in 1993 and were followed through 2003. To determine the age- and gender-specific risk nadir BMIs, coefficients and the lowest point from a quadratic model with transformed BMI were calculated by a Cox proportional hazard model. This included the quadratic term of 1/BMI and adjusted values (age, alcohol intake, and smoking status). RESULTS: For both age and both gender categories, the relationship between all-cause mortality risk and BMI categories are illustrated as U-shaped curves. The risk nadir BMIs for men in the age groups of 40-59 and 60-79 years were 23.4 and 25.3 kg/m(2), respectively. Similarly, in women, the risk nadir BMIs were 21.6 and 23.4 kg/m(2), respectively. DISCUSSION: Among the general Japanese population, the risk nadir BMI for the age group of 60-79 years was higher compared to the age group of 40-59 years, which was similar to the study for whites, and the age-dependent risk nadir BMI differed from the official guidelines criteria. Our findings underscore the importance of weight control following appropriate indicators of body weight according to age.

[Development of a diabetes risk prediction sheet for specific health guidance].

OBJECTIVE: To develop diabetes risk scores and to produce a diabetes risk prediction sheet that can be used throughout Japan as a tool for health guidance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 16,289 men and 37,099 women aged 40-69 years who had underwent health check-ups in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan, in 1993, were followed through 2003 (mean follow-up duration; 5.0 yr in men, 5.5 yr in women). Relative risk (RR) of newly developed diabetes (determined by fasting blood glucose > / = 126 mg/dL, resting blood glucose > / = 200 mg/dL, or treatment of diabetes) was calculated according to blood glucose, triglycerides (log-transformed), systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), treatment for hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, and fasting status using Cox's proportional hazards model. Diabetes risk scores were calculated by multiplying RRs of individual variables. In addition, we attempted to develop a diabetes risk prediction sheets for specific health guidance of the larger general Japanese population. RESULTS: During the follow-up, there were 3,654 new cases of diabetes in 1,667 men and 1,987 women. In both men and women, the significant factors included in the risk scores were BMI, blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, triglycerides and smoking habits. Based on the computed risk scores, a 12-page diabetes risk prediction sheet was produced. The sheet includes a scoring protocol for diabetes risk scores consisting of a representative value and RR for each risk factor as well as advice for achieving a healthy lifestyle. CONCLUSION: The diabetes risk prediction sheet developed in this study may be an effective tool to guide individuals at high risk for lifestyle-related disease such as diabetes.

[Prediction of stroke, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and total death based on results of annual health checkups].

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict mortality rate from the findings of annual health checkups for men and women. METHOD: The subjects were 31,053 men and 61,224 women who were living in Ibaraki prefecture (Japan), aged 40 to 79 years, without history of any stroke and coronary heart disease, and who participated in annual health checkups in 1993. They were followed until the end of 2001, with a systemic review of resident registration and death certificates. The Cox's proportional hazards model with step-down procedure was used to estimate predictive model. RESULTS: During the 8.0 years follow-up, there were 5260 deaths (710 from stroke, 389 from coronary heart disease and 2,322 from cancer). The predictive factors for all causes were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, high or low serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoking, heavy drinking, and urinary protein among men. The predictive factors for cardiovascular disease were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low or high serum total cholesterol, low serum HDL cholesterol, high serum creatinine, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoker, and urinary protein, and those for cancer were advanced age, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, low serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoking, heavy drinking and urinary protein. Furthermore, those for stroke were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, high serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, low body mass index, current smoking, while for coronary heart disease they were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, high serum total cholesterol, low serum HDL cholesterol, diabetes, current smoking, and urinary protein among men. For women, similar predictive factors were obtained, although some of them did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: We could construct predictive models for 5-year mortality rate from results of annual health checkups. These findings should prove useful for computerized health education on the prevention of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cancer.

[Development of a tool for assessment of local government health policy].

OBJECTIVE: A tool was developed for assessment of health status in communities to help formulate health policy of local governments and allow estimates of magnitude of changes in mortality with modification of selected risk variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 25,201 men and 51,776 women aged 40-69 years who underwent health checkups in Ibaraki-ken, Japan, in 1993 were followed through 2002. Risk ratios for all cause, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, all cancer, and lung cancer deaths were calculated according to smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and diabetes using a Cox proportional hazards model. Regression coefficients for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and plasma glucose were also calculated by the model with quadratic terms. On the basis of the results, we developed a tool using Microsoft EXCEL, allowing estimation of the magnitude of changes in death rates according to variation in mean and standard deviation values for risk factors by impact fraction. RESULTS: The developed tool facilitates estimation of magnitude of changes in death rates with alteration in exposure rates and means/standard deviations of risk variables with intervention. The best magnitude of decline for all cause mortality with a 50% reduction of exposure to smoking was 10% in men. The magnitudes of decline in cardiovascular disease mortality with a 50% reduction in hypertension were 12% in men and 11% in women. Furthermore, the magnitude of decline in cardiovascular disease mortality if a 10% lowering of mean systolic blood pressure were achieved would be 22% in men and 18% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Our developed tool may be useful to assess health status in communities with cooperation between municipal and prefectural governments.

Cigarette smoking and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among middle-aged and elderly Japanese men and women.

For examination of sex- and age-specific relations between smoking and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, 39,528 nondiabetic men and 88,613 nondiabetic women aged 40-79 years who underwent health checkups in Ibaraki-ken, Japan, in 1993 were followed through 2002. Risk ratios for diabetes according to smoking habits were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Compared with never smokers, the risk ratio for diabetes among current smokers, after adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive mediation use, alcohol intake, parental history of diabetes, body mass index, fasting status, blood glucose concentration, total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and log-transformed triglyceride level, was 1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.38) in men and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.61) in women. The excess risk was more pronounced among men with a parental history of diabetes than among men without one. The excess risk among current smokers was observed in both age subgroups (40-59 and 60-79 years). Respective multivariate risk ratios for the age subgroups were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.60) and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.34) in men and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.79) and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.66) in women. Smoking was independently associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes among both middle-aged and elderly men and women.