Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: High consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat is associated with increased risk of multiple chronic diseases, although there is substantial uncertainty regarding the relationship for unprocessed red meat. We developed a microsimulation model to estimate how reductions in processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption could affect rates of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the US adult population. METHODS: We used data from two versions of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, one conducted during 2015-16 and one conducted during 2017-18, to create a simulated US population. The starting cohort was restricted to respondents aged 18 years or older who were not pregnant and had 2 days of dietary-recall data. First, we used previously developed risk models to estimate the baseline disease risk of an individual. For type 2 diabetes we used a logistic-regression model and for cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer we used Cox proportional-hazard models. We then multiplied baseline risk by relative risk associated with individual processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption. Prevented occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality were computed by taking the difference between the incidence in the baseline and intervention scenarios. All stages were repeated for ten iterations to correspond to a 10-year time span. Scenarios were reductions of 5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 75%, and 100% in grams consumed of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, or both. Each scenario was repeated 50 times for uncertainty analysis. FINDINGS: The total number of individual respondents included in the simulated population was 8665, representing 242 021 876 US adults. 4493 (51·9%) of 8665 individuals were female and 4172 (48·1%) were male; mean age was 49·54 years (SD 18·38). At baseline, weighted mean daily consumption of processed meat was 29·1 g, with a 30% reduction being 8·7 g per day, and of unprocessed red meat was 46·7 g, with a 30% reduction being 14·0 g per day. We estimated that a 30% reduction in processed meat intake alone could lead to 352 900 (95% uncertainty interval 345 500-359 900) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 92 500 (85 600-99 900) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 53 300 (51 400-55 000) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 16 700 (15 300-17 700) fewer all-cause deaths during the 10-year period. A 30% reduction in unprocessed red meat intake alone could lead to 732 600 (725 700-740 400) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 291 500 (283 900-298 800) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 32 200 (31 500-32 700) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 46 100 (45 300-47 200) fewer all-cause deaths during the 10-year period. A 30% reduction in both processed meat and unprocessed red meat intake could lead to 1 073 400 (1 060 100-1 084 700) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 382 400 (372 100-391 000) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 84 400 (82 100-86 200) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 62 200 (60 600-64 400) fewer all-cause deaths during the 10-year period. INTERPRETATION: Reductions in processed meat consumption could reduce the burden of some chronic diseases in the USA. However, more research is needed to increase certainty in the estimated effects of reducing unprocessed red meat consumption. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Dietary quality and dietary greenhouse gas emissions in the USA: a comparison of the planetary health diet index, healthy eating index-2015, and dietary approaches to stop hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) measures adherence to the dietary pattern presented by the EAT-Lancet Commission, which aligns health and sustainability targets. There is a need to understand how PHDI scores correlate with dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and how this differs from the carbon footprints of scores on established dietary recommendations. The objectives of this study were to compare how the PHDI, Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) relate to (a) dietary GHGE and (b) to examine the influence of PHDI food components on dietary GHGE. METHODS: We used life cycle assessment data from the Database of Food Recall Impacts on the Environment for Nutrition and Dietary Studies to calculate the mean dietary GHGE of 8,128 adult participants in the 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Poisson regression was used to estimate the association of (a) quintiles of diet score and (b) standardized dietary index Z-scores with dietary GHGE for PHDI, HEI-2015, and DASH scores. In secondary analyses, we used Poisson regression to assess the influence of individual PHDI component scores on dietary GHGE. RESULTS: We found that higher dietary quality on all three indices was correlated with lower dietary GHGE. The magnitude of the dietary quality-dietary GHGE relationship was larger for PHDI [-0.4, 95% CI (-0.5, -0.3) kg CO2 equivalents per one standard deviation change] and for DASH [-0.5, (-0.4, -0.6) kg CO2-equivalents] than for HEI-2015 [-0.2, (-0.2, -0.3) kg CO2-equivalents]. When examining PHDI component scores, we found that diet-related GHGE were driven largely by red and processed meat intake. CONCLUSIONS: Improved dietary quality has the potential to lower the emissions impacts of US diets. Future efforts to promote healthy, sustainable diets could apply the recommendations of the established DASH guidelines as well as the new guidance provided by the PHDI to increase their environmental benefits.

Adherence to the Planetary Health Diet Index and correlation with nutrients of public health concern: an analysis of NHANES 2003-2018.

BACKGROUND: The Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) is a novel measure adapted to quantify alignment with the dietary evidence presented by the EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health. OBJECTIVES: To examine how population-level health and sustainability of diet as measured by the PHDI changed from 2003 to 2018, and to assess how PHDI correlated with inadequacy for nutrients of public health concern (iron, calcium, potassium, and fiber) in the United States. METHODS: We estimated survey-weighted trends in PHDI scores and median intake of PHDI components in a nationally representative sample of 33,859 adults aged 20+ y from 8 cycles (2003-2018) of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with 2 d of dietary recall data. We used the National Cancer Institute method to examine how PHDI correlated with inadequate intake of iron, calcium, potassium, and fiber. RESULTS: Out of a theoretical range of 0-140, the median PHDI value increased by 4.2 points over the study period, from 62.7 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.0, 63.4) points in 2003-2004 to 66.9 (66.2, 67.7) points in 2017-2018 (P-trend < 0.001), although most of this change occurred before 2011-2012 and plateaued thereafter. For adequacy components that are encouraged for consumption, nonstarchy vegetable intake significantly decreased over time, whereas whole grains, nuts and seeds, and unsaturated oils increased. For moderation components with recommended limits for consumption, poultry and egg intake increased, but red and processed meat, added sugars, saturated fats, and starchy vegetables decreased over time. Higher PHDI values were associated with a lower probability of iron, fiber, and potassium inadequacy. CONCLUSIONS: Although there have been positive changes over the past 20 y, there is substantial room for improving the health and sustainability of the United States diet. Shifting diets toward EAT-Lancet recommendations would improve nutrient adequacy for iron, fiber, and potassium. Policy action is needed to support healthier, more sustainable diets in the United States and globally.

The diabetes care continuum in Venezuela: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses to evaluate engagement and retention in care.

The impact of the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela on care for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes is unknown. This study aims to document health system performance for diabetes management in Venezuela during the humanitarian crisis. This longitudinal study on NCDs is nationally representative at baseline (2014-2017) and has follow-up (2018-2020) data on 35% of participants. Separate analyses of the baseline population with diabetes (n = 585) and the longitudinal population with diabetes (n = 210) were conducted. Baseline analyses constructed a weighted care continuum: all diabetes; diagnosed; treated; achieved glycaemic control; achieved blood pressure, cholesterol, and glycaemic control; and achieved aforementioned control plus non-smoking. Weighted multinomial regression models controlling for region were used to estimate the association between socio-demographic characteristics and care continuum stage. Longitudinal analyses constructed an unweighted care continuum: all diabetes; diagnosed; treated; and achieved glycaemic control. Unweighted multinomial regression models controlling for region were used to estimate the association between socio-demographic characteristics and changes in care continuum stage. Among 585 participants with diabetes at baseline, 71% were diagnosed, 51% were on treatment, and 32% had achieved glycaemic control. Among 210 participants with diabetes in the longitudinal population, 50 (24%) participants' diabetes management worsened, while 40 (19%) participants improved. Specifically, the proportion of those treated decreased (60% in 2014-2017 to 51% in 2018-2020), while the proportion of participants achieving glycaemic control did not change. Although treatment rates have declined substantially among people with diabetes in Venezuela, management changed less than expected during the crisis.

Patterns of multimorbidity in India: A nationally representative cross-sectional study of individuals aged 15 to 49 years.

There is a dearth of evidence on the epidemiology of multimorbidity in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity in India and its variation among states and population groups. We analyzed data from a nationally representative household survey conducted in 2015-2016 among individuals aged 15 to 49 years. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more conditions out of five common chronic morbidities in India: anemia, asthma, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. We disaggregated multimorbidity prevalence by condition, state, rural versus urban areas, district-level wealth, and individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. 712,822 individuals were included in the analysis. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 7·2% (95% CI, 7·1% - 7·4%), and was higher in urban (9·7% [95% CI, 9·4% - 10·1%]) than in rural (5·8% [95% CI, 5·7% - 6·0%]) areas. The three most prevalent morbidity combinations were hypertension with obesity (2·9% [95% CI, 2·8% - 3·1%]), hypertension with anemia (2·2% [95% CI, 2·1%- 2·3%]), and obesity with anemia (1·2% [95% CI, 1·1%- 1·2%]). The age-standardized multimorbidity prevalence varied from 3·4% (95% CI: 3·0% - 3·8%) in Chhattisgarh to 16·9% (95% CI: 13·2% - 21·5%) in Puducherry. Being a woman, being married, not currently smoking, greater household wealth, and living in urban areas were all associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity. Multimorbidity is common among young and middle-aged adults in India. This study can inform screening guidelines for chronic conditions and the targeting of relevant policies and interventions to those most in need.

Awareness of and reactions to health and environmental harms of red meat among parents in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence of the health and environmental harms of red meat is growing, yet little is known about which harms may be most impactful to include in meat reduction messages. This study examined which harms consumers are most aware of and which most discourage them from wanting to eat red meat. DESIGN: Within-subjects randomised experiment. Participants responded to questions about their awareness of, and perceived discouragement in response to, eight health and eight environmental harms of red meat presented in random order. Discouragement was assessed on a 1-to-5 Likert-type scale. SETTING: Online survey. PARTICIPANTS: 544 US parents. RESULTS: A minority of participants reported awareness that red meat contributes to health harms (ranging from 8 % awareness for prostate cancer to 28 % for heart disease) or environmental harms (ranging from 13 % for water shortages and deforestation to 22 % for climate change). Among specific harms, heart disease elicited the most discouragement (mean = 2·82 out of 5), followed by early death (mean = 2·79) and plants and animals going extinct (mean = 2·75), though most harms elicited similar discouragement (range of means, 2·60-2·82). In multivariable analyses, participants who were younger, identified as Black, identified as politically liberal, had higher general perceptions that red meat is bad for health and had higher usual red meat consumption reported being more discouraged from wanting to eat red meat in response to health and environmental harms (all P < 0·05). CONCLUSIONS: Messages about a variety of health and environmental harms of red meat could inform consumers and motivate reductions in red meat consumption.

Unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care in 35 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: As the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia is increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), detailed evidence is urgently needed to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. This study sought to quantify unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care among adults in 35 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We pooled individual-level data from 129,040 respondents aged 15 years and older from 35 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2009 and 2018. Hypercholesterolemia care was quantified using cascade of care analyses in the pooled sample and by region, country income group, and country. Hypercholesterolemia was defined as (i) total cholesterol (TC) ≥240 mg/dL or self-reported lipid-lowering medication use and, alternatively, as (ii) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥160 mg/dL or self-reported lipid-lowering medication use. Stages of the care cascade for hypercholesterolemia were defined as follows: screened (prior to the survey), aware of diagnosis, treated (lifestyle advice and/or medication), and controlled (TC <200 mg/dL or LDL-C <130 mg/dL). We further estimated how age, sex, education, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, having diabetes, and having hypertension are associated with cascade progression using modified Poisson regression models with survey fixed effects. High TC prevalence was 7.1% (95% CI: 6.8% to 7.4%), and high LDL-C prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 7.1% to 7.9%). The cascade analysis showed that 43% (95% CI: 40% to 45%) of study participants with high TC and 47% (95% CI: 44% to 50%) with high LDL-C ever had their cholesterol measured prior to the survey. About 31% (95% CI: 29% to 33%) and 36% (95% CI: 33% to 38%) were aware of their diagnosis; 29% (95% CI: 28% to 31%) and 33% (95% CI: 31% to 36%) were treated; 7% (95% CI: 6% to 9%) and 19% (95% CI: 18% to 21%) were controlled. We found substantial heterogeneity in cascade performance across countries and higher performances in upper-middle-income countries and the Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, and Americas. Lipid screening was significantly associated with older age, female sex, higher education, higher BMI, comorbid diagnosis of diabetes, and comorbid diagnosis of hypertension. Awareness of diagnosis was significantly associated with older age, higher BMI, comorbid diagnosis of diabetes, and comorbid diagnosis of hypertension. Lastly, treatment of hypercholesterolemia was significantly associated with comorbid hypertension and diabetes, and control of lipid measures with comorbid diabetes. The main limitations of this study are a potential recall bias in self-reported information on received health services as well as diminished comparability due to varying survey years and varying lipid guideline application across country and clinical settings. CONCLUSIONS: Cascade performance was poor across all stages, indicating large unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care in this sample of LMICs-calling for greater policy and research attention toward this cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor and highlighting opportunities for improved prevention of CVD.

Targeting Hypertension Screening in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 1.2 Million Adults in 56 Countries.

Background As screening programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) often do not have the resources to screen the entire population, there is frequently a need to target such efforts to easily identifiable priority groups. This study aimed to determine (1) how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by age, sex, body mass index, and smoking status, and (2) the ability of different combinations of these variables to accurately predict hypertension. Methods and Results We analyzed individual-level, nationally representative data from 1 170 629 participants in 56 LMICs, of whom 220 636 (18.8%) had hypertension. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or reporting to be taking blood pressure-lowering medication. The shape of the positive association of hypertension with age and body mass index varied across world regions. We used logistic regression and random forest models to compute the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in each country for different combinations of age, body mass index, sex, and smoking status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model with all 4 predictors ranged from 0.64 to 0.85 between countries, with a country-level mean of 0.76 across LMICs globally. The mean absolute increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the model including only age to the model including all 4 predictors was 0.05. Conclusions Adding body mass index, sex, and smoking status to age led to only a minor increase in the ability to distinguish between adults with and without hypertension compared with using age alone. Hypertension screening programs in LMICs could use age as the primary variable to target their efforts.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance plasma concentrations and metabolomic markers of type 2 diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program trial.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are widely used chemicals, some of which have been linked to type 2 diabetes. We tested whether PFAS concentrations were cross-sectionally associated with metabolites previously shown to predict incident type 2 diabetes using the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), a trial of individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We evaluated 691 participants enrolled in the DPP with baseline measures of 10 PFAS (including total perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), total perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and Sb-PFOA [branched isomers of PFOA]) and 77 metabolites. We used log2-transformed PFAS concentrations as exposures and standardized metabolite concentrations as outcomes in linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, use of anti-hyperlipidemic or triglyceride-lowering medication, income, years of education, marital status, smoking, and family history of diabetes, with Benjamini-Hochberg linear step-up false discovery rate correction. RESULTS: Sb-PFOA was associated with the largest number of tested metabolites (29 of 77). Each doubling in Sb-PFOA was associated with higher leucine (ß = 0.07 [95%CI: 0.02, 0.11] SD) and lower glycine (-0.08 [95%CI: 0.03, -0.13] SD). Each doubling of either total PFOA or n-PFOA was associated with -0.13 [95%CI: 0.04, -0.22] SD lower glycine. PFOA and Sb-PFOA were positively associated with multiple triacylglycerols and diacylglycerols, and total PFOS, total PFOA, and Sb-PFOA were positively associated with phosphatidylethanolamines. CONCLUSIONS: PFAS concentrations are associated with metabolites linked to type 2 diabetes (particularly amino acid, glycerolipid and glycerophospholipid pathways). Further prospective research is needed to test whether these metabolites mediate associations of PFAS and type 2 diabetes.

Pregnancy Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Concentrations and Postpartum Health in Project Viva: A Prospective Cohort.

CONTEXT: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are environmental chemicals linked to weight gain and type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVE: We examined the extent to which PFAS plasma concentrations during pregnancy were associated with postpartum anthropometry and biomarkers. DESIGN, PATIENTS, AND MEASURES: We studied women recruited between 1999 and 2002 in the Project Viva prospective cohort with pregnancy plasma concentrations of PFAS, including perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and 2-(N-ethyl-perfluorooctane sulfonamide) acetic acid (EtFOSAA). Three-year postpartum anthropometry measurements were available from 786 to 801 women, blood pressure from 761 women, and blood biomarkers from 450 to 454 women. We used multivariable regression to evaluate the association of log2-transformed PFAS with postpartum anthropometry, blood pressure, and blood biomarkers (leptin, adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin [SHBG], hemoglobin A1c, interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein), adjusting for age, prepregnancy body mass index, marital status, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, parity, and breastfeeding history. RESULTS: Pregnancy concentrations of certain PFAS were associated with greater adiposity (eg, 0.4 cm [95% confidence interval [95%CI]: -0.1, 0.9] greater waist circumference per doubling in EtFOSAA; 0.2 cm [95%CI: -0.1, 0.5] greater mid-upper arm circumference per doubling in PFOA; 1.2 mm [95%CI: 0.1, 2.2] thicker sum of subscapular and triceps skinfolds per doubling in PFOS) and higher systolic blood pressure (eg, 1.2 mm Hg [95%CI: 0.3, 2.2] per doubling in PFOS) at 3 years postpartum. Higher EtFOSAA concentrations were also associated with 10.8% higher IL-6 (95%CI: 3.3, 18.9) and 6.1% lower SHBG (95%CI: 0.7, 11.2) per doubling. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnancy concentrations of EtFOSAA, PFOS, and PFOA were associated with adverse postpartum cardiometabolic markers.

Design and Rationale of the HAPIN Study: A Multicountry Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Effect of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Stove and Continuous Fuel Distribution.

BACKGROUND: Globally, nearly 3 billion people rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating, the vast majority residing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting household air pollution (HAP) is a leading environmental risk factor, accounting for an estimated 1.6 million premature deaths annually. Previous interventions of cleaner stoves have often failed to reduce exposure to levels that produce meaningful health improvements. There have been no multicountry field trials with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves, likely the cleanest scalable intervention. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the design and methods of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT) of LPG stove and fuel distribution in 3,200 households in 4 LMICs (India, Guatemala, Peru, and Rwanda). METHODS: We are enrolling 800 pregnant women at each of the 4 international research centers from households using biomass fuels. We are randomly assigning households to receive LPG stoves, an 18-month supply of free LPG, and behavioral reinforcements to the control arm. The mother is being followed along with her child until the child is 1 year old. Older adult women (40 to <80 years of age) living in the same households are also enrolled and followed during the same period. Primary health outcomes are low birth weight, severe pneumonia incidence, stunting in the child, and high blood pressure (BP) in the older adult woman. Secondary health outcomes are also being assessed. We are assessing stove and fuel use, conducting repeated personal and kitchen exposure assessments of fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), and black carbon (BC), and collecting dried blood spots (DBS) and urinary samples for biomarker analysis. Enrollment and data collection began in May 2018 and will continue through August 2021. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02944682). CONCLUSIONS: This study will provide evidence to inform national and global policies on scaling up LPG stove use among vulnerable populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6407.

Design and Rationale of the Biomarker Center of the Household Air Pollution Intervention Network (HAPIN) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of exposure, susceptibility, and effect are fundamental for understanding environmental exposures, mechanistic pathways of effect, and monitoring early adverse outcomes. To date, no study has comprehensively evaluated a large suite and variety of biomarkers in household air pollution (HAP) studies in concert with exposure and outcome data. The Household Air Pollution Intervention Network (HAPIN) trial is a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) fuel/stove randomized intervention trial enrolling 800 pregnant women in each of four countries (i.e., Peru, Guatemala, Rwanda, and India). Their offspring will be followed from birth through 12 months of age to evaluate the role of pre- and postnatal exposure to HAP from biomass burning cookstoves in the control arm and LPG stoves in the intervention arm on growth and respiratory outcomes. In addition, up to 200 older adult women per site are being recruited in the same households to evaluate indicators of cardiopulmonary, metabolic, and cancer outcomes. OBJECTIVES: Here we describe the rationale and ultimate design of a comprehensive biomarker plan to enable us to explore more fully how exposure is related to disease outcome. METHODS: HAPIN enrollment and data collection began in May 2018 and will continue through August 2021. As a part of data collection, dried blood spot (DBS) and urine samples are being collected three times during pregnancy in pregnant women and older adult women. DBS are collected at birth for the child. DBS and urine samples are being collected from the older adult women and children three times throughout the child's first year of life. Exposure biomarkers that will be longitudinally measured in all participants include urinary hydroxy-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic chemical metabolites, metals/metalloids, levoglucosan, and cotinine. Biomarkers of effect, including inflammation, endothelial and oxidative stress biomarkers, lung cancer markers, and other clinically relevant measures will be analyzed in urine, DBS, or blood products from the older adult women. Similarly, genomic/epigenetic markers, microbiome, and metabolomics will be measured in older adult women samples. DISCUSSION: Our study design will yield a wealth of biomarker data to evaluate, in great detail, the link between exposures and health outcomes. In addition, our design is comprehensive and innovative by including cutting-edge measures such as metabolomics and epigenetics. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5751.

Diabetes Prevalence and Its Relationship With Education, Wealth, and BMI in 29 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is a rapidly growing health problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but empirical data on its prevalence and relationship to socioeconomic status are scarce. We estimated diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes in 29 LMICs and evaluated the relationship of education, household wealth, and BMI with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from 29 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2008 and 2016, totaling 588,574 participants aged ≥25 years. Diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes was calculated overall and by country, World Bank income group (WBIG), and geographic region. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risk (RR). RESULTS: Overall, prevalence of diabetes in 29 LMICs was 7.5% (95% CI 7.1-8.0) and of undiagnosed diabetes 4.9% (4.6-5.3). Diabetes prevalence increased with increasing WBIG: countries with low-income economies (LICs) 6.7% (5.5-8.1), lower-middle-income economies (LMIs) 7.1% (6.6-7.6), and upper-middle-income economies (UMIs) 8.2% (7.5-9.0). Compared with no formal education, greater educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of diabetes across WBIGs, after adjusting for BMI (LICs RR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.78], LMIs 1.14 [1.06-1.23], and UMIs 1.28 [1.02-1.61]). CONCLUSIONS: Among 29 LMICs, diabetes prevalence was substantial and increased with increasing WBIG. In contrast to the association seen in high-income countries, diabetes risk was highest among those with greater educational attainment, independent of BMI. LMICs included in this analysis may be at an advanced stage in the nutrition transition but with no reversal in the socioeconomic gradient of diabetes risk.

Potentially Heterogeneous Cross-Sectional Associations of Seafood Consumption with Diabetes and Glycemia in Urban South Asia.

Aims: In this study, we aimed to estimate cross-sectional associations of fish or shellfish consumption with diabetes and glycemia in three South Asian mega-cities. Methods: We analyzed baseline data from 2010-2011 of a cohort (n = 16,287) representing the population ≥20 years old that was neither pregnant nor on bedrest from Karachi (unweighted n = 4017), Delhi (unweighted n = 5364), and Chennai (unweighted n = 6906). Diabetes was defined as self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes, fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L), or glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). We estimated adjusted and unadjusted odds ratios for diabetes using survey estimation logistic regression for each city, and differences in glucose and HbA1c using survey estimation linear regression for each city. Adjusted models controlled for age, gender, body mass index, waist-height ratio, sedentary lifestyle, educational attainment, tobacco use, an unhealthy diet index score, income, self-reported physician diagnosis of high blood pressure, and self-reported physician diagnosis of high cholesterol. Results: The prevalence of diabetes was 26.7% (95% confidence interval: 24.8, 28.6) in Chennai, 36.7% (32.9, 40.5) in Delhi, and 24.3% (22.0, 26.6) in Karachi. Fish and shellfish were consumed more frequently in Chennai than in the other two cities. In Chennai, the adjusted odds ratio for diabetes, comparing more than weekly vs. less than weekly fish consumption, was 0.81 (0.61, 1.08); in Delhi, it was 1.18 (0.87, 1.58), and, in Karachi, it was 1.30 (0.94, 1.80). In Chennai, the adjusted odds ratio of prevalent diabetes among persons consuming shellfish more than weekly versus less than weekly was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.30); in Delhi, it was 1.35 (0.90, 2.01), and, in Karachi, it was 1.68 (0.98, 2.86). Conclusions: Both the direction and the magnitude of association between seafood consumption and glycemia may vary by city. Further investigation into specific locally consumed seafoods and their prospective associations with incident diabetes and related pathophysiology are warranted.

Nationally representative household survey data for studying the interaction between district-level development and individual-level socioeconomic gradients of cardiovascular disease risk factors in India.

In this article, we describe the dataset used in our study entitled "The interaction between district-level development and individual-level socioeconomic gradients of cardiovascular disease risk factors in India: A cross-sectional study of 2.4 million adults", recently published in Social Science & Medicine, and present supplementary analyses. We used data from three different household surveys in India, which are representative at the district level. Specifically, we analyzed pooled data from the District-Level Household Survey 4 (DLHS-4) and the second update of the Annual Health Survey (AHS), and separately analyzed data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4). The DLHS-4 and AHS sampled adults aged 18 years or older between 2012 and 2014, while the NFHS-4 sampled women aged 15-49 years and - in a subsample of 15% of households - men aged 15-54 years in 2015 and 2016. The measures of individual-level socio-economic status that we used in both datasets were educational attainment and household wealth quintiles. The measures of district-level development, which we calculated from these data, were i) the percentage of participants living in an urban area, ii) female literacy rate, and iii) the district-level median of the continuous household wealth index. An additional measure of district-level development that we used was Gross Domestic Product per capita, which we obtained from the Planning Commission of the Government of India for 2004/2005. Our outcome variables were diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and current smoking. The data were analyzed using both district-level regressions and multilevel modelling.

The interaction between district-level development and individual-level socioeconomic gradients of cardiovascular disease risk factors in India: A cross-sectional study of 2.4 million adults.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes, hypertension, and obesity tend to be positively associated with socio-economic status in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It has been hypothesized that these positive socio-economic gradients will reverse as LMICs continue to undergo economic development. We use population-based cross-sectional data in India to examine how a district's economic development is associated with socio-economic differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor prevalence between individuals. METHODS: We separately analyzed two nationally representative household survey datasets - the NFHS-4 and the DLHS-4/AHS - that are representative at the district level in India. Diabetes was defined based on a capillary blood glucose measurement, hypertension on blood pressure measurements, obesity on measurements of height and weight, and current smoking on self-report. Five different measures of a district's economic development were used. We analyzed the data using district-level regressions (plotting the coefficient comparing high to low socio-economic status against district-level economic development) and multilevel modeling. RESULTS: 757,655 and 1,618,844 adults participated in the NFHS-4 and DLHS-4/AHS, respectively. Higher education and household wealth were associated with a higher probability of having diabetes, hypertension, and obesity, and a lower probability of being a current smoker. For diabetes, hypertension, and obesity, we found that a higher economic development of a district was associated with a less positive (or even negative) association between the CVD risk factor and education. For smoking, the association with education tended to become less negative as districts had a higher level of economic development. In general, these associations did not show clear trends when household wealth quintile was used as the measure of socio-economic status instead of education. CONCLUSIONS: While this study provides some evidence for the "reversal hypothesis", large-scale longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether LMICs should expect a likely reversal of current positive socioeconomic gradients in diabetes, hypertension, and obesity as their countries continue to develop economically.

The state of hypertension care in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative individual-level data from 1·1 million adults.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from nationally representative studies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on where in the hypertension care continuum patients are lost to care is sparse. This information, however, is essential for effective targeting of interventions by health services and monitoring progress in improving hypertension care. We aimed to determine the cascade of hypertension care in 44 LMICs-and its variation between countries and population groups-by dividing the progression in the care process, from need of care to successful treatment, into discrete stages and measuring the losses at each stage. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level population-based data from 44 LMICs. We first searched for nationally representative datasets from the WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) from 2005 or later. If a STEPS dataset was not available for a LMIC (or we could not gain access to it), we conducted a systematic search for survey datasets; the inclusion criteria in these searches were that the survey was done in 2005 or later, was nationally representative for at least three 10-year age groups older than 15 years, included measured blood pressure data, and contained data on at least two hypertension care cascade steps. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or reported use of medication for hypertension. Among those with hypertension, we calculated the proportion of individuals who had ever had their blood pressure measured; had been diagnosed with hypertension; had been treated for hypertension; and had achieved control of their hypertension. We weighted countries proportionally to their population size when determining this hypertension care cascade at the global and regional level. We disaggregated the hypertension care cascade by age, sex, education, household wealth quintile, body-mass index, smoking status, country, and region. We used linear regression to predict, separately for each cascade step, a country's performance based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, allowing us to identify countries whose performance fell outside of the 95% prediction interval. FINDINGS: Our pooled dataset included 1 100 507 participants, of whom 192 441 (17·5%) had hypertension. Among those with hypertension, 73·6% of participants (95% CI 72·9-74·3) had ever had their blood pressure measured, 39·2% of participants (38·2-40·3) had been diagnosed with hypertension, 29·9% of participants (28·6-31·3) received treatment, and 10·3% of participants (9·6-11·0) achieved control of their hypertension. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean generally achieved the best performance relative to their predicted performance based on GDP per capita, whereas countries in sub-Saharan Africa performed worst. Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru performed significantly better on all care cascade steps than predicted based on GDP per capita. Being a woman, older, more educated, wealthier, and not being a current smoker were all positively associated with attaining each of the four steps of the care cascade. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides important evidence for the design and targeting of health policies and service interventions for hypertension in LMICs. We show at what steps and for whom there are gaps in the hypertension care process in each of the 44 countries in our study. We also identified countries in each world region that perform better than expected from their economic development, which can direct policy makers to important policy lessons. Given the high disease burden caused by hypertension in LMICs, nationally representative hypertension care cascades, as constructed in this study, are an important measure of progress towards achieving universal health coverage. FUNDING: Harvard McLennan Family Fund, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Hypertension screening, awareness, treatment, and control in India: A nationally representative cross-sectional study among individuals aged 15 to 49 years.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on where in the hypertension care process individuals are lost to care, and how this varies among states and population groups in a country as large as India, is essential for the design of targeted interventions and to monitor progress. Yet, to our knowledge, there has not yet been a nationally representative analysis of the proportion of adults who reach each step of the hypertension care process in India. This study aimed to determine (i) the proportion of adults with hypertension who have been screened, are aware of their diagnosis, take antihypertensive treatment, and have achieved control and (ii) the variation of these care indicators among states and sociodemographic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from a nationally representative household survey carried out from 20 January 2015 to 4 December 2016 among individuals aged 15-49 years in all states and union territories (hereafter "states") of the country. The stages of the care process-computed among those with hypertension at the time of the survey-were (i) having ever had one's blood pressure (BP) measured before the survey ("screened"), (ii) having been diagnosed ("aware"), (iii) currently taking BP-lowering medication ("treated"), and (iv) reporting being treated and not having a raised BP ("controlled"). We disaggregated these stages by state, rural-urban residence, sex, age group, body mass index, tobacco consumption, household wealth quintile, education, and marital status. In total, 731,864 participants were included in the analysis. Hypertension prevalence was 18.1% (95% CI 17.8%-18.4%). Among those with hypertension, 76.1% (95% CI 75.3%-76.8%) had ever received a BP measurement, 44.7% (95% CI 43.6%-45.8%) were aware of their diagnosis, 13.3% (95% CI 12.9%-13.8%) were treated, and 7.9% (95% CI 7.6%-8.3%) had achieved control. Male sex, rural location, lower household wealth, and not being married were associated with greater losses at each step of the care process. Between states, control among individuals with hypertension varied from 2.4% (95% CI 1.7%-3.3%) in Nagaland to 21.0% (95% CI 9.8%-39.6%) in Daman and Diu. At 38.0% (95% CI 36.3%-39.0%), 28.8% (95% CI 28.5%-29.2%), 28.4% (95% CI 27.7%-29.0%), and 28.4% (95% CI 27.8%-29.0%), respectively, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Sikkim, and Haryana had the highest proportion of all adults (irrespective of hypertension status) in the sampled age range who had hypertension but did not achieve control. The main limitation of this study is that its results cannot be generalized to adults aged 50 years and older-the population group in which hypertension is most common. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension prevalence in India is high, but the proportion of adults with hypertension who are aware of their diagnosis, are treated, and achieve control is low. Even after adjusting for states' economic development, there is large variation among states in health system performance in the management of hypertension. Improvements in access to hypertension diagnosis and treatment are especially important among men, in rural areas, and in populations with lower household wealth.

Pilot randomized controlled trial of a Mediterranean diet or diet supplemented with fish oil, walnuts, and grape juice in overweight or obese US adults.

BACKGROUND: The 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend a Mediterranean-type diet as one of three healthful eating patterns. However, only one previous trial has evaluated the effects of a Mediterranean diet intervention in a US sample population. METHODS: To address this gap, we conducted a pilot, non-blinded, 8-week randomized controlled trial on the comparative efficacy of consumption of a Mediterranean diet or a diet supplemented with fish oil, walnuts, and grape juice versus controls. Participants (overweight or obese US adults; 73% female and mean age 51 years) were randomly assigned to one of three groups: (1) Mediterranean diet; (2) habitual high-fat American-type diet supplemented with fish oil, walnuts, and grape juice; or (3) habitual high-fat American-type diet (controls). Intent-to-treat analysis of within-subject differences (Student's paired t-test or Wilcoxon sign ranks test) and between-subject differences (mixed-effects models with a group-by-time interaction term, adjusted for baseline health outcome) was conducted. RESULTS: Participants in the Mediterranean diet arm (n = 11) had significantly greater weight loss despite no significant change in total caloric intake, and lower plasma cystine, indicative of decreased oxidative stress, compared to controls (n = 9) at both 4 and 8 weeks. Compared to controls, they also had significantly lower total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels at 4 weeks. Participants in the supplement arm (n = 10) had significantly lower adiponectin levels compared to controls at 4 weeks. No significant improvements in endothelial function or inflammatory biomarkers were observed in either intervention group compared to controls. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that adopting a dietary pattern reflecting a Mediterranean diet improves weight and cardio-metabolic health among overweight or obese US adults, and may be more beneficial than supplementing habitual American diets with fish oil, walnuts, and grape juice.

Geographic and sociodemographic variation of cardiovascular disease risk in India: A cross-sectional study of 797,540 adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in India. Yet, evidence on the CVD risk of India's population is limited. To inform health system planning and effective targeting of interventions, this study aimed to determine how CVD risk-and the factors that determine risk-varies among states in India, by rural-urban location, and by individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 2 large household surveys carried out between 2012 and 2014, which included a sample of 797,540 adults aged 30 to 74 years across India. The main outcome variable was the predicted 10-year risk of a CVD event as calculated with the Framingham risk score. The Harvard-NHANES, Globorisk, and WHO-ISH scores were used in secondary analyses. CVD risk and the prevalence of CVD risk factors were examined by state, rural-urban residence, age, sex, household wealth, and education. Mean CVD risk varied from 13.2% (95% CI: 12.7%-13.6%) in Jharkhand to 19.5% (95% CI: 19.1%-19.9%) in Kerala. CVD risk tended to be highest in North, Northeast, and South India. District-level wealth quintile (based on median household wealth in a district) and urbanization were both positively associated with CVD risk. Similarly, household wealth quintile and living in an urban area were positively associated with CVD risk among both sexes, but the associations were stronger among women than men. Smoking was more prevalent in poorer household wealth quintiles and in rural areas, whereas body mass index, high blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with household wealth and urban location. Men had a substantially higher (age-standardized) smoking prevalence (26.2% [95% CI: 25.7%-26.7%] versus 1.8% [95% CI: 1.7%-1.9%]) and mean systolic blood pressure (126.9 mm Hg [95% CI: 126.7-127.1] versus 124.3 mm Hg [95% CI: 124.1-124.5]) than women. Important limitations of this analysis are the high proportion of missing values (27.1%) in the main outcome variable, assessment of diabetes through a 1-time capillary blood glucose measurement, and the inability to exclude participants with a current or previous CVD event. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified substantial variation in CVD risk among states and sociodemographic groups in India-findings that can facilitate effective targeting of CVD programs to those most at risk and most in need. While the CVD risk scores used have not been validated in South Asian populations, the patterns of variation in CVD risk among the Indian population were similar across all 4 risk scoring systems.