Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

BACKGROUND: Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. METHODS: Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. RESULTS: Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to population ageing and a proportionate increase in demand for care-home places unless innovative health and social care interventions are found.

The epidemiology of primary biliary cirrhosis.

Over the last 30 years, many studies have reported on the epidemiology of PBC. Substantial increases in prevalence were noted in the majority of studies examining longitudinal data, and several have reported increases in the incidence of PBC. Furthermore, although it is difficult to compare studies directly, as methods of case ascertainment have greatly improved over this period, there has been a definite trend toward increasing prevalence (and also possibly incidence) across studies. Together, these data strongly suggest that in many countries, the frequency with which PBC is diagnosed has increased considerably between 1980 and the present time. The reasons for this change may be complex. There may have been a true increase in the incidence of PBC, reflecting either increased exposure to a currently unknown environmental etiological agent or demographic changes with an increased elderly, at-risk population. The prevalence may have further increased due to increased survival of patients, either due to improved care or earlier diagnosis. Some of the apparent increase in PBC frequency may also be artifactual, however, resulting from increased use of diagnostic tests, particularly autoantibody screens. This may be due to increased availability of testing, increased clinician (or patient) awareness of PBC, increased use of testing in well-person screening, or increased investigation of ill-defined symptoms. Furthermore, there may also have been an improvement in clinicians' ability to recognize PBC on the basis of the clinical picture (in one study, 37% of patients whose clinical results indicated a diagnosis of PBC were not recognized by the clinician caring for the patient at that time). The last factor alone suggests that all studies based only upon cases known to interested clinicians have probably substantially underestimated the prevalence of disease. Whatever the reason, the recognized epidemiology of PBC has dramatically changed over the past 30 years. It is now a frequent cause of liver morbidity, and patients with PBC are significant users of health resources, including liver transplantation. Large geographical variations in disease frequency, both between and within studies, tantalizingly suggest the presence of as-yet-unidentified risk factors. This should be further followed up with new analytical epidemiological studies. Only two case control studies have examined risk factors for PBC, and these have been either relatively small or used poorly defined and potentially biased experimental groups. These need repeating in new settings. We suggest that, as with other diseases, modern epidemiological instruments used in well-designed studies may provide important clues to the cause or causes of this disease.