Metabolic risk factors and incident advanced liver disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Many individuals have risk factors associated with NAFLD, but the majority do not develop advanced liver disease: cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Identifying people at high risk of experiencing these complications is important in order to prevent disease progression. This review synthesises the evidence on metabolic risk factors and their potential to predict liver disease outcomes in the general population at risk of NAFLD or with diagnosed NAFLD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov) were searched up to 9 January 2020. Studies were included that reported severe liver disease outcomes (defined as liver cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, or liver-related death) or advanced fibrosis/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in adult individuals with metabolic risk factors, compared with individuals with no metabolic risk factors. Cohorts selected on the basis of a clinically indicated liver biopsy were excluded to better reflect general population risk. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUIPS tool. The results of similar studies were pooled, and overall estimates of hazard ratio (HR) were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses. Of 7,300 unique citations, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were of sufficient quality, with 18 studies contributing data suitable for pooling in 2 random-effects meta-analyses. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of incident severe liver disease events (adjusted HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.83-2.76, p < 0.001, I2 99%). T2DM data were from 12 studies, with 22.8 million individuals followed up for a median of 10 years (IQR 6.4 to 16.9) experiencing 72,792 liver events. Fourteen studies were included in the meta-analysis of obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) as a prognostic factor, providing data on 19.3 million individuals followed up for a median of 13.8 years (IQR 9.0 to 19.8) experiencing 49,541 liver events. Obesity was associated with a modest increase in risk of incident severe liver disease outcomes (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, p < 0.001, I2 87%). There was also evidence to suggest that lipid abnormalities (low high-density lipoprotein and high triglycerides) and hypertension were both independently associated with incident severe liver disease. Significant study heterogeneity observed in the meta-analyses and possible under-publishing of smaller negative studies are acknowledged to be limitations, as well as the potential effect of competing risks on outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this review, we observed that T2DM is associated with a greater than 2-fold increase in the risk of developing severe liver disease. As the incidence of diabetes and obesity continue to rise, using these findings to improve case finding for people at high risk of liver disease will allow for effective management to help address the increasing morbidity and mortality from liver disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018115459.

Unacceptable failures: the final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity-the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.

Gathering momentum for the way ahead: fifth report of the Lancet Standing Commission on Liver Disease in the UK.

This report presents further evidence on the escalating alcohol consumption in the UK and the burden of liver disease associated with this major risk factor, as well as the effects on hospital and primary care. We reiterate the need for fiscal regulation by the UK Government if overall alcohol consumption is to be reduced sufficiently to improve health outcomes. We also draw attention to the effects of drastic cuts in public services for alcohol treatment, the repeated failures of voluntary agreements with the drinks industry, and the influence of the industry through its lobbying activities. We continue to press for reintroduction of the alcohol duty escalator, which was highly effective during the 5 years it was in place, and the introduction of minimum unit pricing in England, targeted at the heaviest drinkers. Results from the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, with results from Wales to follow, are likely to seriously expose the weakness of England's position. The increasing prevalence of obesity-related liver disease, the rising number of people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and its complications, and increasing number of cases of end-stage liver disease and primary liver cancers from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease make apparent the need for an obesity strategy for adults. We also discuss the important effects of obesity and alcohol on disease progression, and the increased risk of the ten most common cancers (including breast and colon cancers). A new in-depth analysis of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and total societal costs shows the extraordinarily large expenditures that could be saved or redeployed elsewhere in the NHS. Excellent results have been reported for new antiviral drugs for hepatitis C virus infection, making elimination of chronic infection a real possibility ahead of the WHO 2030 target. However, the extent of unidentified cases remains a problem, and will also apply when new curative drugs for hepatitis B virus become available. We also describe efforts to improve standards of hospital care for liver disease with better understanding of current service deficiencies and a new accreditation process for hospitals providing liver services. New commissioning arrangements for primary and community care represent progress, in terms of effective screening of high-risk subjects and the early detection of liver disease.

ATP-dependent vesiculation in red cell membranes from different hereditary stomatocytosis variants.

The hereditary stomatocytoses are a group of dominant haemolytic anaemias that show two main features: invaginated, 'stomatocytic' morphology; and a membrane leak to the univalent cations Na and K. A patient with the most severe variant of these conditions was reported to show a defect in an in vitro process of ATP-dependent endocytic vesiculation (ADEV), which is found in normal red cells. We have examined this endocytosis process in 11 leaky red cell pedigrees available to us in the UK. ADEV in broken membranes was absent only in the two most severely affected, 'overhydrated' pedigrees studied, both of which showed a deficiency in the membrane raft protein, stomatin. The process was present, although typically diminished by about 10-20% compared with normal red cells, in all others. The cross-linker dimethyl adipimate (DMA), which could correct the cation leak in some of these patients, also corrected the ADEV defect in the same patients. In those patients in whom DMA had no effect on the ion leak, ADEV was not absent. In normal cells, this process of vesiculation was inhibited by inhibitors of membrane 'raft' function, by an antistomatin antibody and by vanadate and N-ethyl maleimide, but not by inhibitors of a number of kinases. These data highlight the heterogeneity of these conditions. A mechanism is discussed by which a defect in raft-based endocytosis could lead to the exaggerated surface exposure of an ion channel, which could then function constitutively, i.e. 'leak'.