Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations.

BACKGROUND: Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.

2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk.

INTRODUCTION: The 2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk provides updated evidence-based recommendations for the clinical assessment and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk for primary prevention. It includes the new Australian CVD risk calculator (Aus CVD Risk Calculator), based on an equation developed from a large New Zealand cohort study, customised and recalibrated for the Australian population. The new guideline replaces the 2012 guideline that recommended CVD risk assessment using the Framingham risk equation. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: The new guideline recommends CVD risk assessment in people without known CVD: all people aged 45-79 years, people with diabetes from 35 years, and First Nations people from 30 years. The new Aus CVD Risk Calculator should be used to estimate and categorise CVD risk into low (< 5% risk over five years), intermediate (5% to < 10% risk over five years) or high risk (≥ 10% over five years). The following reclassification factors may be applied to recategorise calculated risk to improve accuracy of risk prediction, particularly in individuals close to a risk threshold: Indigenous status/ethnicity, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine albumin to creatinine ratio measurements, severe mental illness, coronary artery calcium score and family history of premature CVD. A variety of communication formats is available to communicate CVD risk to help enable shared decision making. Healthy lifestyle modification, including smoking cessation, nutrition, physical activity and limiting alcohol, is encouraged for all individuals. Blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying pharmacotherapies should be prescribed for high risk and considered for intermediate risk individuals, unless contraindicated or clinically inappropriate. Reassessment of CVD risk should be considered within five years for individuals at low risk and within two years for those with intermediate risk. Reassessment of CVD risk is not recommended for individuals at high risk. CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THE GUIDELINE: The updated guideline recommends assessment over a broader age range and uses the Aus CVD Risk Calculator, which replaces the previous Framingham-based equation. It incorporates new variables: social disadvantage, diabetes-specific risk markers, diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and use of blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying therapies. Reclassification factors are also a new addition. Updated risk categories and thresholds are based on the new Aus CVD Risk Calculator. The proportion of the population in the high risk category (≥ 10% over five years) is likely to be broadly comparable to more than 15% risk from the Framingham-based equation. The full guideline and Aus CVD Risk Calculator can be accessed at www.cvdcheck.org.au.

The contribution of raised blood pressure to all-cause and cardiovascular deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Australia: Analysis of global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2019.

AIMS: In a high-income country, Australia, it is unclear how raised systolic blood pressure (SBP) ranks among other risk factors regarding the overall and cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, and whether the situation has changed over time. METHODS: We analysed the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, with focus on Australia. We assessed ten leading risk factors for all-cause and CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and compared findings with the Australian Burden of Diseases Study. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, raised SBP remained the leading risk factor for attributable all-cause deaths (followed by dietary risks and tobacco use), accounting for 29,056/75,235 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI) [24,863 to 32,915]) deaths in 1990; 21,845/76,893 [17,678 to 26,044] in 2010; and 25,498/90,393 [20,152 to 30,851] in 2019. Contributions of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths for both sexes were 54.0% [45.8 to 61.5] in 1990, 44.0% [36.7 to 51.3] in 2010 and 43.7% [36.2 to 51.6] in 2019, respectively. The contribution of raised SBP to cardiovascular deaths declined between 1990 and 2010 but exhibited an increase in males from 2010 onwards, with figures of 52.6% [44.7 to 60.0] in 1990, 43.1% [36.0 to 50.5] in 2010 and 43.5% [35.7 to 51.4] in 2019. The contribution of raised SBP to stroke deaths and DALYs in males aged 25-49 years were higher than other age groups, in excess of 60% and increasing steeply between 2010 and 2019. CONCLUSION: Raised SBP continues to be the leading risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in Australia. We urge cross-disciplinary stakeholder engagement to implement effective strategies to detect, treat and control raised blood pressure as a central priority to mitigate the CVD burden.

Differences in predictors of incident heart failure according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease status.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, related to a broad range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity risk factors, which may differ according to the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We assessed the association between incident HF with baseline status across these domains, overall and separated according to ASCVD status. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 5758 participants from the Baker Biobank cohort without HF at baseline enrolled between January 2000 and December 2011. The primary endpoint was incident HF, defined as hospital admission or HF-related death, determined through linkage with state-wide administrative databases (median follow-up 12.2 years). Regression models were fitted adjusted for sociodemographic variables, alcohol intake, smoking status, measures of adiposity, cardiometabolic profile measures, and individual comorbidities. During 65 987 person-years (median age 59 years, 38% women), incident HF occurred among 784 participants (13.6%) overall. Rates of incident HF were higher among patients with ASCVD (624/1929, 32.4%) compared with those without ASCVD (160/3829, 4.2%). Incident HF was associated with age, socio-economic status, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), with non-linear relationships observed for age, alcohol intake, BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, SBP, LDL-C, and HDL-C. Risk factors for incident HF were largely consistent regardless of ASCVD status, although diabetes status had a greater association with incident HF among patients without ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is associated with a broad range of baseline sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity factors, which are mostly consistent regardless of ASCVD status. These data could be useful in efforts towards developing risk prediction models that can be used in patients with ASCVD.

National Heart Foundation of Australia: position statement on coronary artery calcium scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: This position statement considers the evolving evidence on the use of coronary artery calcium scoring (CAC) for defining cardiovascular risk in the context of Australian practice and provides advice to health professionals regarding the use of CAC scoring in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia. Main recommendations: CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with moderate absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and for whom the findings are likely to influence the intensity of risk management. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with low absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the NVDPA absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and who have additional risk-enhancing factors that may result in the underestimation of risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score of 0 AU could reclassify a person to a low absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient-clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for low absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score > 99 AU or ≥ 75th percentile for age and sex could reclassify a person to a high absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient-clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for high absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: CAC scoring can have a role in reclassification of absolute cardiovascular risk for selected patients in Australia, in conjunction with traditional absolute risk assessment and as part of a shared decision-making approach that considers the preferences and values of individual patients.

High intraluminal pressure promotes vascular inflammation via caveolin-1.

The aetiology and progression of hypertension involves various endogenous systems, such as the renin angiotensin system, the sympathetic nervous system, and endothelial dysfunction. Recent data suggest that vascular inflammation may also play a key role in the pathogenesis of hypertension. This study sought to determine whether high intraluminal pressure results in vascular inflammation. Leukocyte adhesion was assessed in rat carotid arteries exposed to 1 h of high intraluminal pressure. The effect of intraluminal pressure on signaling mechanisms including reactive oxygen species production (ROS), arginase expression, and NFĸB translocation was monitored. 1 h exposure to high intraluminal pressure (120 mmHg) resulted in increased leukocyte adhesion and inflammatory gene expression in rat carotid arteries. High intraluminal pressure also resulted in a downstream signaling cascade of ROS production, arginase expression, and NFĸB translocation. This process was found to be angiotensin II-independent and mediated by the mechanosensor caveolae, as caveolin-1 (Cav1)-deficient endothelial cells and mice were protected from pressure-induced vascular inflammatory signaling and leukocyte adhesion. Cav1 deficiency also resulted in a reduction in pressure-induced glomerular macrophage infiltration in vivo. These findings demonstrate Cav1 is an important mechanosensor in pressure-induced vascular and renal inflammation.

Cardiovascular disease and COVID-19: Australian and New Zealand consensus statement.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, and COVID-19 itself causes serious cardiac sequelae. Strategies to minimise the risk of viral transmission to health care workers and uninfected cardiac patients while prioritising high quality cardiac care are urgently needed. We conducted a rapid literature appraisal and review of key documents identified by the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand Board and Council members, the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons, and key cardiology, surgical and public health opinion leaders. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: Common acute cardiac manifestations of COVID-19 include left ventricular dysfunction, heart failure, arrhythmias and acute coronary syndromes. The presence of underlying CVD confers a five- to tenfold higher case fatality rate with COVID-19 disease. Special precautions are needed to avoid viral transmission to this population at risk. Adaptive health care delivery models and resource allocation are required throughout the health care system to address this need. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: Cardiovascular health services and cardiovascular health care providers need to recognise the increased risk of COVID-19 among CVD patients, upskill in the management of COVID-19 cardiac manifestations, and reorganise and innovate in service delivery models to meet demands. This consensus statement, endorsed by the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand, the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons, the National Heart Foundation of Australia and the High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia summarises important issues and proposes practical approaches to cardiovascular health care delivery to patients with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults aged under 35 years: a consensus statement.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. This statement from the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation and the Editorial Committee for Remote Primary Health Care Manuals communicates the latest consensus advice of guideline developers, aligning recommendations on the age to commence Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander CVD risk assessment across three guidelines. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples without existing CVD: CVD risk factor screening should commence from the age of 18 years at the latest, including for blood glucose level or glycated haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum lipids, urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and other risk factors such as blood pressure, history of familial hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking status. Individuals aged 18-29 years with the following clinical conditions are automatically conferred high CVD risk: ▶type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria; ▶moderate to severe chronic kidney disease; ▶systolic blood pressure ≥ 180 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 110 mmHg; ▶familial hypercholesterolaemia; or ▶serum total cholesterol > 7.5 mmol/L. Assessment using the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance absolute CVD risk algorithm should commence from the age of 30 years at the latest - consider upward adjustment of calculated CVD risk score, accounting for local guideline use, risk factor and CVD epidemiology, and clinical discretion. Assessment should occur as part of an annual health check or opportunistically. Subsequent review should be conducted according to level of risk. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: From age 18 years (at the latest), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults should undergo CVD risk factor screening, and from age 30 years (at the latest), they should undergo absolute CVD risk assessment using the NVDPA risk algorithm.

Declaración de posición del Grupo de la Comisión Lancet de Hipertensión con respecto a la mejora mundial de las normas de exactitud para los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial / Lancet Commission on Hypertension Group position statement on the global improvement of accuracy standards for devices that measure blood pressure / Posicionamento do Grupo da Lancet Commission on Hypertension sobre a melhoria global dos padrões de acurácia para aparelhos que medem a pressão arterial

Objetivos. El boletín de notas de México correspondiente al 2018 evalúa las oportunidades a disposición de la población infantil y joven mexicana para que puedan desarrollar niveles adecuados de actividad física y sueño, y disminuyan el sedentarismo.Métodos. El boletín es un sistema de vigilancia que recopila los datos obtenidos en las encuestas nacionales, censos, documentos gubernamentales, sitios web, literatura gris y estudios publicados con respecto al análisis de 16 indicadores en 4 categorías: comportamientos diarios, estado físico, entornos y fuentes influyentes, y estrategias e inversión. Los datos fueron cotejados con los puntos de referencia establecidos. A cada indicador se le asignó una calificación entre 1 y 10 (< 6 significa reprobado) o fue marcado como "incompleto" si los datos eran nulos o insuficientes. Resultados. Las calificaciones obtenidas para los comportamientos diarios fueron: actividad física en general: 4; participación en actividades deportivas organizadas: 5; juego activo: 3; modalidades de transporte activas: 5; sueño: 7; y sedentarismo: 3. El estado físico obtuvo un 7. Las calificaciones para los entornos y fuentes influyentes fueron: familiares y pares: "incompleto"; escuela: 3; comunidad y entorno: 4. Para las estrategias e inversión: estrategias gubernamentales: 6; entidades no gubernamentales: 2.Conclusiones. Las bajas calificaciones obtenidas en 11 de los 16 indicadores demuestran que las escuelas, las familias, las comunidades y el gobierno tienen que aunar esfuerzos para mejorar las oportunidades que tiene la población infantil y joven en México para desarrollar niveles de actividad física satisfactorios.(AU)

ABSTRACT The Lancet Commission on Hypertension identified that a key action to address the worldwide burden of high blood pressure (BP) was to improve the quality of BP measurements by using BP devices that have been validated for accuracy. Currently, there are over 3 000 commercially available BP devices, but many do not have published data on accuracy testing according to established scientific standards. This problem is enabled through weak or absent regulations that allow clearance of devices for commercial use without formal validation. In addition, new BP technologies have emerged (e.g. cuffless sensors) for which there is no scientific consensus regarding BP measurement accuracy standards. Altogether, these issues contribute to the widespread availability of clinic and home BP devices with limited or uncertain accuracy, leading to inappropriate hypertension diagnosis, management and drug treatment on a global scale. The most significant problems relating to the accuracy of BP devices can be resolved by the regulatory requirement for mandatory independent validation of BP devices according to the universally-accepted International Organization for Standardization Standard. This is a primary recommendation for which there is an urgent international need. Other key recommendations are development of validation standards specifically for new BP technologies and online lists of accurate devices that are accessible to consumers and health professionals. Recommendations are aligned with WHO policies on medical devices and universal healthcare. Adherence to recommendations would increase the global availability of accurate BP devices and result in better diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, thus decreasing the worldwide burden from high BP.(AU)

RESUMO A Comissão Lancet sobre Hipertensão Arterial identificou que uma iniciativa central para enfrentar a carga mundial da hipertensão arterial seria a melhoria na qualidade da mensuração da pressão arterial pelo uso aparelhos de pressão arterial validados quanto à acurácia. Atualmente, existem mais de 3 000 aparelhos de pressão arterial disponíveis comercialmente; entretanto, muitos não têm dados publicados sobre testes de acurácia realizados de acordo com padrões científicos estabelecidos. Este problema resulta de regulamentação fraca ou inexistente, o que permite a aprovação para uso comercial de dispositivos sem validação formal. Além disso, surgiram novas tecnologias de mensuração da pressão arterial (por exemplo, sensores sem algemas) sem consenso científico quanto aos padrões de acurácia. No conjunto, essas questões contribuem para a oferta generalizada de dispositivos de pressão arterial clínica e domiciliar com acurácia limitada ou incerta, levando a diagnóstico, gerenciamento e tratamento inadequados da hipertensão em escala global. Os problemas mais significativos relacionados com a acurácia dos dispositivos de pressão arterial podem ser resolvidos por regulamentação que imponha a obrigatoriedade de validação independente dos aparelhos de pressão arterial, de acordo com a norma universalmente aceita pela Organização Internacional de Normalização. Esta é uma recomendação fundamental para a qual existe uma necessidade internacional urgente. Outras recomendações essenciais incluem o desenvolvimento de padrões de validação especificamente para novas tecnologias de mensuração da pressão arterial e listas on-line de aparelhos com acurácia adequada que sejam acessíveis aos consumidores e profissionais de saúde. As recomendações estão alinhadas com as políticas da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) sobre dispositivos médicos e atenção universal à saúde. A adesão às recomendações aumentaria a oferta global de dispositivos de pressão arterial com acurácia adequada e resultaria em melhor diagnóstico e tratamento da hipertensão arterial, diminuindo assim a carga mundial dessa doença.(AU)

Sex-Specific Lifestyle and Biomedical Risk Factors for Chronic Disease among Early-Middle, Middle and Older Aged Australian Adults.

Evidence suggests age and sex differences in risk factors for chronic disease. This study examined lifestyle and biomedical risk factors among men (m) and women (w) in early-middle (25⁻51 years), middle (52⁻64) and older (65+) adulthood. Cross-sectional data from the 2011⁻2012 Australian Health Survey (n = 3024) were analysed. Self-reported dietary, activity, sleep behaviours and collected biomedical data were analysed. Early-middle adults failed to meet fruit, vegetable (95.3%) and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB, 34.9%) recommendations. Older adults had higher prevalence of overweight/obesity (70%), high blood pressure (38.0%) and fewer met physical activity guidelines (36.3%). Prior to older adulthood, more men consumed SSBs (early-middle m 45.6%, w 24.4%; middle m 26.0%, w 19.3%), and fewer met sedentary behaviour recommendations (early-middle m 43.2%, w 62.1%; middle m 46.4%, w 63.9%). Differences in overweight/obese women in early-middle (44.8%) to middle adulthood (64.7%) were significant. Biomedical risk was greatest in middle age; abnormal cholesterol/lipids increased specifically for women (total cholesterol early-middle 24.9% middle 56.4%; abnormal LDL-cholesterol early-middle 23.1% middle 53.9%). Adherence to lifestyle guidelines was low; particularly among men. While men exhibited greater clinical risk overall, this significantly increased among women in middle-adulthood. Public health strategies to improve lifestyle, monitor and intervene among middle-aged women are warranted.

Standing up to the cardiometabolic consequences of hematological cancers.

Hematological cancer survivors are highly vulnerable to cardiometabolic complications impacting long-term health status, quality of life and survival. Elevated risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease arises not only from the effects of the cancers themselves, but also from the toxic effects of cancer therapies, and deconditioning arising from reduced physical activity levels. Regular physical activity can circumvent or reverse adverse effects on the heart, skeletal muscle, vasculature and blood cells, through a combination of systemic and molecular mechanisms. We review the link between hematological cancers and cardiometabolic risk with a focus on adult survivors, including the contributing mechanisms and discuss the potential for physical activity interventions, which may act to oppose the negative effects of both physical deconditioning and therapies (conventional and targeted) on metabolic and growth signaling (kinase) pathways in the heart and beyond. In this context, we focus particularly on strategies targeting reducing and breaking up sedentary time and provide recommendations for future research.

Sex-Specific Associations in Nutrition and Activity-Related Risk Factors for Chronic Disease: Australian Evidence from Childhood to Emerging Adulthood.

Global assessments of burden of disease suggests there are sex differences in risk factors for chronic disease, including overweight/obesity, dietary patterns and habitual physical activity. Given that prevention efforts aim to target such factors to reduce disease risk, the age at which sex differences may occur is of particular interest. Early life to young adulthood is the optimal time for intervention, with lifestyle habits typically forming during this period. This study aimed to identify the sex differences in risk factors for chronic disease during childhood (5-9 years), adolescence (10-17 years) and emerging adulthood (18-25 years) in a large population-representative Australian sample. Among children in this study (n = 739), no sex-related differences were observed. Among adolescents (n = 1304), females were more likely than males to meet daily fruit and vegetable recommendations (12.9% vs. 7.5%; OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.16, 2.93, p < 0.05). Among emerging adults (n = 909), females were less likely to be overweight/obese (30.1% vs. 39.8%; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.44, 0.95, p < 0.05) and more likely to meet physical activity recommendations (52.1% vs. 42.3%; OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.01, 2.06, p < 0.05). These findings suggest that sex differences for risk factors of chronic disease occur during adolescence and emerging adulthood, although the differences are not consistent across age periods. From adolescence onwards, it appears that females exhibit lower risk factors than males and a life span approach to risk factor monitoring is warranted.

Australian adults' behaviours, knowledge and perceptions of risk factors for heart disease: A cross-sectional study.

This research aimed to determine Australian adults' perceptions of risk factors for heart disease, self-reported behaviours relating to modifiable risk factors, and knowledge of leading causes of death. This study reports on HeartWatch survey data collected between January 2015 and December 2015 in a sample of Australian adults. The setting of the research was Australian communities, with all states and territories represented in the final sample. Participants were Australian adults aged 30-59 years (n = 8425), and were representative of the wider Australian population based on key demographic and health characteristics. Half of the sample overall correctly identified heart disease as the biggest underlying cause of death of males, and 26% for women. For risk factors for heart disease, respondents most frequently reported; poor diet (58.2%, 95%CI 57.0-59.1), physical inactivity (49.0%, 95%CI 47.9-50.1) and smoking (38.7%, 95%CI 37.7-39.8). A low proportion (< 10%) recognised underlying clinical risk factors for heart disease including high blood pressure (6.3%, 95%CI 5.8-6.8) and dyslipidaemia (9.8%, 95%CI 9.2-10.5). This study revealed broad misconceptions with regard to the leading cause of death and risk factors for heart disease among Australian men and women. Overall the lack of understanding in all groups suggests the need for a comprehensive national campaign reaching schools and the broad adult population. The health system alone cannot achieve national and international targets for disease prevention without understanding and engagement in the general community.

Prediction of 10-year Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Elderly Hypertensive Population: The ANBP2 Study.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable risk prediction models consisting of routinely collected measurements can facilitate early detection and slowing of disease progression through pharmacological and nonpharmacological risk factor modifications. This study aims to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for predicting 10-year risk of incident heart failure diagnosis in elderly hypertensive population. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 6083 participants aged 65 to 84 years at baseline (1995-2001) followed for a median of 10.8 years during and following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). Cox proportional hazards models were used to develop the risk prediction models. Variables were selected using bootstrap resampling method, and Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion and C-statistics were used to select the parsimonious model. The final model was internally validated using a bootstrapping, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed. RESULTS: Incident heart failure was diagnosed in 319 (5.2%) participants. The final multivariable model included age, male sex, obesity (body mass index > 30kg/m2), pre-existing cardiovascular disease, average visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variation, current or past smoking. The model has C-statistics of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.705-0.748) in the derivation cohort, and 0.716 (95% CI: 0.701-0.731) after internal validation (optimism corrected). The goodness-of-fit test showed the model has good overall calibration (χ 2 = 1.78, P = 0.94). CONCLUSION: The risk equation, consisting of variables readily accessible in primary and community care settings, allows reliable prediction of 10-year incident heart failure in elderly hypertensive population. Its application for the prediction of heart failure needs to be studied in the community setting to determine its utility for improving patient management and disease prevention.