Early non-cancer mortality risk prediction after curative-intent radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), curative-intent radiotherapy (RT) and chemoradiotherapy (CRT) are associated with substantial acute morbidity and 5-10% of patients die within 180 days of treatment initiation. Most of these early deaths occur without HNSCC recurrence or progression and may therefore be preventable to some extent. We developed a prediction tool to estimate the risk of non-HNSCC mortality occurring within the first 180 days followingRT/CRT initiation. METHODS: Patients with HNSCC treated with RT/CRT, including postoperative RT/CRT, at Rigshospitalet or Herlev Hospitals between 2010-2017 were identified in the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) database. Predictor variables included age, stage, performance status, tumor subsite including p16 status, comorbidity, postoperative status, smoking and pre-treatment albumin levels. The 180-day non-HNSCCmortality risk was estimated by combining cause-specific Cox regression models. RESULTS: We included 2209 patients. The 180-day non-HNSCCmortality rate was 4.4% and almostone third (31.6%) of non-HNSCCdeathswere caused by pneumonia.After internal model validation, the area under the receiver operating curve was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.81) and calibration was good for risk predictions ranging from 0% to 20%. CONCLUSION: We developed a prediction tool to estimate the 180-day non-HNSCC mortality risk. This tool can be used to select high-risk patients for supportive interventions aiming to improve survival rates, and is availablefor interactive use at https://emriskpred.shinyapps.io/EMNED_App/.

Bloodstream infections in head and neck cancer patients after curative-intent radiotherapy: a population-based study from the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group database.

BACKGROUND: Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) undergoing radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT) may become immunocompromised. In this population-based study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors, microbiological aetiologies, prognosis and impact on early non-cancer mortality of bloodstream infections (BSIs) after RT/CRT. METHODS: Patients with HNSCC of the pharynx, larynx and oral cavity treated with curative-intent RT/CRT in Denmark between 2010 and 2017 and subsequent BSI episodes occurring within 18 months of RT/CRT initiation were identified in national registries. RESULTS: We included 5674 patients and observed 238 BSIs. Increasing age, stage and performance status were significantly associated with an elevated BSI risk, while sex, smoking and high-grade mucositis were not. Human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer patients had a decreased risk. Staphylococcus aureus accounted for 34% of episodes occurring during the first 3 months. The 30-day post-BSI mortality rate was 26% (95% confidence interval: 19-32) and BSIs were involved in 10% of early non-cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: The risk of BSI development is associated with several patient- and disease-related factors and BSIs contribute considerably to early non-cancer mortality. Empiric antibiotic treatment regimens should prioritise coverage for S. aureus when treating suspected systemic infection in this population.