Patient preferences pertaining to treatment options for drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine patient acceptability of benefit-risk trade-offs in selecting treatment options for drug-resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy, including open brain surgery, laser ablation (laser interstitial thermal therapy [LITT]), and continued medications. METHODS: A discrete-choice experiment survey was developed, consisting of 20 versions that were randomly assigned to respondents. Each version had 8 sets of constructed treatment alternatives, representing open brain surgery, LITT, or continued medical management. For each set, respondents indicated the treatment alternative they would choose first. Treatment alternatives were characterized by varying levels of chance of seizure freedom for at least 2 years (20-70%), risk of 30-day mortality (0-10%), and risk of neurological deficits (0-40%). Respondents' choices were analyzed using random-parameters logit models to quantify acceptable benefit-risk trade-offs. Preference heterogeneity was evaluated using latent-class analysis. RESULTS: The survey was administered to 2 cohorts of adult patients with drug-resistant epilepsy: a Duke cohort identified using diagnostic codes (n = 106) and a web-recruited panel with a self-reported physician diagnosis of drug-resistant epilepsy (n = 300). Based on mean preference weights, respondents who indicated a willingness to consider surgical intervention would accept a reduction in chance of seizure freedom from 70% to a minimum-acceptable benefit (MAB) of 23% if they could undergo LITT rather than open brain surgery. For a reduction in 30-day mortality from 1% to 0%, MAB was 52%. For a reduction in risk of long-term deficits from 10% to 0%, MAB was 39%. Latent-class analysis revealed additional choice patterns identifying respondent groups that more strongly favored continuing medications or undergoing surgery. CONCLUSION: Patients who are receptive to surgery would accept significantly lower treatment effectiveness to undergo a minimally invasive procedure relative to open brain surgery. They also were willing to accept lower treatment benefit to reduce risks of mortality or neurological deficits.

Women's Willingness to Accept Risks of Medication for Inflammatory Bowel Disease During Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Women with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) face difficult decisions regarding treatment during pregnancy: while the majority of IBD medications are safe, there is substantial societal pressure to avoid exposures during pregnancy. However, discontinuation of IBD medications risks a disease flare occurring during pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: This study quantified women's knowledge about pregnancy and IBD and their willingness to accept the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes to avoid disease activity or medication use during pregnancy. METHODS: Women with IBD recruited from four centers completed an online discrete-choice experiment stated-preference study including eight choice tasks and the Crohn's and Colitis Pregnancy Knowledge questionnaire. Random-parameters logit was used to estimate preferences for both the respondent personally and what the respondent thought most women would prefer. We also tested for systematically different preferences among individuals with different demographic and personal characteristics, including IBD knowledge. The primary outcome was the maximum acceptable risk of premature birth, birth defects, or miscarriage that women with IBD were willing to accept to avoid (1) taking an IBD medication or (2) having a disease flare during pregnancy. RESULTS: Among 230 respondents, women would accept, on average, up to a 4.9% chance of miscarriage to avoid a disease flare. On average, there were no statistically significant differences in women's preferences for continuing versus avoiding medication in the absence of a flare. However, prior understanding of IBD and pregnancy significantly affected preferences for IBD medication use during pregnancy: women with "poor knowledge" would accept up to a 6.4% chance of miscarriage to avoid IBD medication use during pregnancy, whereas women with "adequate knowledge" would accept up to a 5.1% chance of miscarriage in order to remain on their medication. Respondents' personal treatment preferences did not differ from their assessment of other women's preferences. CONCLUSIONS: Women with IBD demonstrated a strong preference for avoiding disease activity during pregnancy. Knowledge regarding pregnancy and IBD was a strong modifier of preferences for continuation of IBD medications during pregnancy. These findings point to an important opportunity for intervention to improve disease control through education to increase medication adherence and alleviate unnecessary fears about IBD medication use during pregnancy.

Quantifying Value of Hope.

BACKGROUND: 'Hope' is a construct in patient-centered value frameworks, but few studies have attempted to measure the value of hope separately from treatment-related gains in quality of life and survival to support its application in economic evaluation. OBJECTIVE: To generate quantitative information on the "value of hope". METHODS: We designed a discrete-choice experiment in which treatment alternatives varied the probability of achieving 10-year survival, expected survival as the weighted sum of short-term and long-term survival, health status, and out-of-pocket cost. Two-hundred patients with cancer or history of cancer recruited by Cancer Support Community each completed 10 choice questions. We used mixed-logit and latent-class models to analyze the choice data. RESULTS: Relative to fixed survival periods of two, three or five years with 0% chance of 10-year survival, participants positively valued treatments with 5% and 10% chances of 10-year survival. However, participants negatively valued a 20% chance of 10-year survival that required an offsetting 80% chance of shorter survival. This finding was particularly strong when expected survival was two years. Compared to a 0% chance, dollar-equivalent values of 5% and 10% chances of long-term survival were $5,975 and $12,421, respectively, independent of health status or expected survival. The corresponding value for 20% versus 0% chance of long-term survival was negative. Latent-class analysis revealed 4 groups with distinct preference patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings affirm positive value for hope independent of expected survival and health status. However, this finding does not universally hold in all situations nor across all groups.

Incomplete information and irrelevant attributes in stated-preference values for health interventions.

Violations of the assumptions of complete information [CI] and independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) in discrete-choice experiment (DCE) data imply sensitivity of preference estimates to the decision context and the alternatives evaluated. There is a paucity of evidence on how these two assumptions affect health-preference results and whether the usual specifications of random-parameters logit models are sufficient to address these violations. We assessed the appropriateness of these assumptions in a DCE valuating interventions to prevent long-term health problems that could be identified through whole genome sequencing. A DCE survey was administered to members of a nationally representative consumer panel to elicit their preferences for options to reduce the risk of health problems. The treatment options presented (surgery, medication, and watchful waiting) and the context for the decisions elicited (severity and likelihood of the health problem) were varied experimentally to evaluate the sensitivity of preference results to such changes. We find evidence of IIA violations as the options presented to prevent health changed. Our results also are consistent with the expectation that additional substitutes decrease the monetized value of alternatives. We also find some evidence that the decision context can moderate such effects, which constitutes a new finding.

The preferences of women with ovarian cancer for oral versus intravenous recurrence regimens.

OBJECTIVE: To assess preferences of women with ovarian cancer regarding features of available anti-cancer regimens for platinum-resistant, biomarker-positive disease, with an emphasis on oral PARP inhibitor and standard intravenous (IV) chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: A discrete-choice-experiment preferences survey was designed, tested, and administered to women with ovarian cancer, with 11 pairs of treatment profiles defined using seven attributes (levels/ranges): regimen (oral daily, IV weekly, IV monthly); probability of progression-free (PFS) at 6 months (40%-60%); probability of PFS at 2 years (10%-20%); nausea (none, moderate); peripheral neuropathy (none, mild, moderate); memory problems (none, mild); and total out-of-pocket cost ($0 to $10,000). RESULTS: Of 123 participants, 38% had experienced recurrence, 25% were currently receiving chemotherapy, and 18% were currently taking a PARP inhibitor. Given attributes and levels, the relative importance weights (sum 100) were: 2-year PFS, 28; cost, 27; 6-month PFS, 19; neuropathy,14; memory problems, nausea, and regimen, all ≤5. To accept moderate neuropathy, participants required a 49% (versus 40%) chance of PFS at 6 months or 14% (versus 10%) chance at 2 years. Given a 3-way choice where PFS and cost were equal, 49% preferred a monthly IV regimen causing mild memory problems, 47% preferred an oral regimen causing moderate nausea, and 4% preferred a weekly IV regimen causing mild memory and mild neuropathy. CONCLUSIONS: These findings challenge the assumption that oral anti-cancer therapies are universally preferred by patients and demonstrate that there is no "one size fits all" regimen that is preferable to women with ovarian cancer when considering recurrence treatment regimens.

Patient Preferences for Surgical Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis: A Discrete-Choice Experiment Evaluating Total and Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a common treatment for end-stage knee osteoarthritis but is associated with increased complication rates compared with unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). UKA offers better functional outcomes but is associated with a higher risk of revision. The purpose of this study was to apply good-practice, stated-preference methods to quantify patient preferences for benefit-risk tradeoffs associated with arthroplasty treatments for end-stage knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: A discrete-choice experiment was developed with the following attributes: chance of complications, functional ability, awareness of the knee implant, and chance of needing another operation within 10 years. Patients included those aged 40 to 80 years with knee osteoarthritis. A pivot design filtered respondents into 1 of 2 surveys on the basis of self-reported functional ability (good compared with fair or poor) as measured by the Oxford Knee Score. Treatment-preference data were collected, and relative attribute-importance weights were estimated. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-eight completed survey instruments from 92 males and 164 females were analyzed, with 72 respondents in the good-function cohort and 186 in the fair/poor-function cohort. Patients placed the greatest value or relative importance on serious complications and rates of revision in both cohorts. Preference weights did not vary between cohorts for any attribute. In the good-function cohort, 42% of respondents chose TKA and 58% chose UKA. In the fair/poor-function cohort, 54% chose TKA and 46% chose UKA. CONCLUSIONS: Patient preferences for various treatment attributes varied among patients in a knee osteoarthritis population. Complication and revision rates were the most important factors to patients, suggesting that physicians should focus on these areas when discussing treatments. The proportion of patients who chose UKA suggests that the current trend of increased UKA utilization is aligned with patient preferences. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Systematic elicitation of patient preferences for knee arthroplasty procedures, which lays out evidence-based risks and benefits of different treatments, indicates a larger subset of the knee osteoarthritis population may prefer UKA than would be suggested by the current rates of utilization of the procedure. Arthroplasty treatment should align with patient preferences and eligibility criteria to better deliver patient-centered care.

Patient preferences for maintenance PARP inhibitor therapy in ovarian cancer treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To measure preferences of women with ovarian cancer regarding risks, side effects, costs and benefits afforded by maintenance therapy (MT) with a poly ADP ribose polymerase (PARP) inhibitor. METHODS: A discrete-choice experiment elicited preferences of women with ovarian cancer regarding 6 attributes (levels in parentheses) relevant to decisions for MT versus treatment break: (1) overall survival (OS; 36, 38, 42 months); (2) progression-free survival (PFS; 15, 17, 21 months); (3) nausea (none, mild, moderate); (4) fatigue (none, mild, moderate); (5) probability of death from myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myelogenous leukemia (MDS/AML; 0% to 10%); (6) monthly out-of-pocket cost ($0 to $1000). Participants chose between 2 variable MT scenarios and a static scenario representing treatment break, with multiple iterations. Random-parameters logit regression was applied to model choices as a function of attribute levels. RESULTS: 95 eligible participants completed the survey; mean age was 62, 48% had recurrence, and 17% were ever-PARP inhibitor users. Participants valued OS (average importance weight 24.5 out of 100) and monthly costs (24.6) most highly, followed by risk of death from MDS/AML (17.9), nausea (14.7), PFS (10.5) and fatigue (7.8). Participants would accept 5% risk of MDS/AML if treatment provided 2.2 months additional OS or 4.8 months PFS. Participants would require gains of 2.6 months PFS to accept mild treatment-related fatigue and 4.4 months to accept mild nausea. CONCLUSIONS: When considering MT, women with ovarian cancer are most motivated by gains in OS. Women expect at least 3-4 months of PFS benefit to bear mild side effects of treatment.

Variation Among Patients With Crohn's Disease in Benefit vs Risk Preferences and Remission Time Equivalents.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) must make decisions about their treatment. We aimed to quantify patients' preferences for different treatment outcomes and adverse events. We also evaluated the effects of latent class heterogeneity on these preferences. METHODS: An online stated-preference survey was completed by 812 individuals with CD in the Crohn's and Colitis Foundation Partners cohort (IBD Partners). Patients were given information on symptoms and severity of active disease; duration of therapy with corticosteroids; and risks of serious infection, cancer and surgery. Patients were asked to assume that their treatment was not working and to choose an alternative therapy. The primary outcome was remission-time equivalents (RTE) of a given duration of symptom severity or treatment-related risk. Latent class choice models identified groups of patients with dominant treatment-outcome preferences and associated patient characteristics with these groups. RESULTS: Latent class analysis demonstrated 3 distinct groups of survey responders whose choices were strongly influenced by avoidance of active symptoms (61%), avoidance of corticosteroid use (25%), or avoidance of risks of cancer, infection or surgery (14%) when choosing a therapy. Class membership was correlated with age, sex, mean short CD activity index score and corticosteroid avoidance. RTEs in each latent class differed significantly from the mean RTEs for the overall sample, although the symptom-avoidant class most closely approximated the overall sample. CONCLUSIONS: In an online survey of patients with CD, we found substantial heterogeneity in preference for medication efficacy and risk of harm. Physicians and regulators should therefore not assume that all patients have mean-value preferences-this could result in significant differences in health-technology assessment models.

Comparing the Noncomparable: The Need for Equivalence Measures That Make Sense in Health-Economic Evaluations.

BACKGROUND: The popularity of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) has been resistant to concerns about validity and reliability. Utility-theoretic outcome equivalents are widely used in other areas of applied economics. Equivalence values can be derived for time, money, risk, and other metrics. These equivalence measures preserve all available information about individual preferences and are valid measures of individual welfare changes. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to derive alternative generalized equivalence measures from first principles and illustrate their application in an empirical comparative-effectiveness example. METHODS: We specify a general-equilibrium model incorporating neoclassical utility functions, health production function, severity-duration preferences, and labor-market tradeoff function. The empirical implementation takes advantage of discrete-choice experiment methods that are widely accepted in other areas of applied economics and increasingly in health economics. We illustrate the practical significance of restrictive QALY assumptions using comparative-effectiveness results based on both QALYs and estimates of welfare-theoretic time-equivalent values for anti-tumor necrosis factor and prolonged corticosteroid treatments for Crohn's disease in three distinct preference classes. RESULTS: The QALY difference between the two treatments is 0.2 months, while time-equivalent values range between 0.5 and 1.3 months for aggregate and class-specific differences. Thus, the QALY-based analysis understates welfare-theoretic values by 60%-85%. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that using disease-specific equivalence values offer a meaningful alternative to QALYs to compare global outcomes across treatments. The equivalence values approach is consistent with principles of welfare economics and offers several features not represented in QALYs, including accounting for preference nonlinearities in disease severity and duration, inclusion of preference-relevant nonclinical healthcare factors, representing preferences of clinically-relevant patient subpopulations, and including utility losses related to risk aversion.

Improved Quality of Life With Anti-TNF Therapy Compared With Continued Corticosteroid Utilization in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroids (CS) and anti-TNF drugs are used to treat Crohn's disease (CD). In this study, we assessed the net health benefit of initiating anti-TNF therapy relative to additional CS use in CD using a novel combination of a retrospective cohort study and a simulation model. METHODS: Using Medicaid data from 2001 to 2005 and Medicare data from 2006 to 2013, beneficiaries were identified with CD and CS use who subsequently received either an anti-TNF or reached a cumulative dose of >3000 mg CS during the year. By using overall and latent class-specific remission-time equivalent (RTE) estimates derived from discrete-choice experiments, mean 12-month cumulative RTEs were calculated after propensity score adjustment for baseline characteristics. A Markov model was constructed using transition probabilities derived from the retrospective cohort to perform additional sensitivity analyses of RTE estimates, analytic assumptions, and transition probabilities. Cumulative RTEs were calculated via Monte Carlo simulation in this model. RESULTS: In the retrospective cohort, 1563 new anti-TNF initiators and 1563 propensity score-matched prolonged CS users were identified. Anti-TNF use was associated with greater mean RTEs at the end of 1 year (5.34 vs 4.54, incremental benefit: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.53-1.07). This benefit persisted in all latent classes. In the Markov model, anti-TNF therapy was the preferred strategy, and the results were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis and latent class analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In both a retrospective cohort study and a simulation model, anti-TNF use was associated with improved quality of life, measured as RTEs, when compared with continued CS utilization for CD.

Preferences and Stated Adherence for Antibiotic Treatment of Cystic Fibrosis Pseudomonas Infections.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to quantify preferences and stated adherence for inhaled antibiotic treatments in cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: Adult CF patients and parents of pediatric patients in the US who were members of the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation and who had Pseudomonas aeruginosa at least twice a year completed an online, discrete-choice experiment survey (response rate 4.4 %). Respondents answered five treatment-choice questions evaluating pairs of hypothetical CF treatment profiles. Stated-adherence questions followed two randomly selected treatment-choice questions. Data were analyzed using random-parameters logit (RPL). For a combination of attribute levels, the utility is estimated by summing the relevant attribute-level parameter estimates. For the stated-adherence questions, we tabulated the changes in the percentages of respondents who would be 95 % adherent for various changes in inhaled antibiotic-medication administration features. RESULTS: The final sample was 271 adult patients and 209 parents. Switching from a 30-min nebulizer twice daily to a 10-min dry powder inhaler (DPI) twice daily was 6.3 times more important for patients and 2.0 times more important for parents than an improvement in dry cough side effect from moderate to mild. Stated adherence for respondents was 20-30 % greater for DPIs versus nebulizers. CONCLUSIONS: Lower frequency of administration, shorter administration times for a given device, and milder dry cough appear to improve stated adherence to antibiotic treatment of CF lung infections.

Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients' Willingness to Accept Medication Risk to Avoid Future Disease Relapse.

OBJECTIVES: Biomarkers, endoscopy and imaging tests can identify patients at increased risk for early recurrence of symptomatic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, patients may be unwilling to accept additional medical therapy risks related to therapy escalation to avoid a future disease relapse. We sought to quantify IBD patients' willingness to accept medication risk to avoid future disease relapse. METHODS: We conducted a discrete-choice experiment among 202 patients with IBD who were offered choices of therapies with varying risks of lymphoma and infection, and varying time to next IBD relapse. Random parameters logit was used to estimate patients' willingness to accept tradeoffs among treatment features in selecting medication therapy to avoid future disease relapse. RESULTS: To avoid a disease relapse over the next 5 years, IBD patients were willing to accept an average of a 28% chance of a serious infection; and an average of 1.8% chance of developing lymphoma. These results did not significantly change when patients were offered 10 years until their next disease relapse, but were lower (11 and 0.7%, respectively) when offered 1.5 years until the next disease relapse. Patients with active disease symptoms were significantly less willing to accept medication risk for time in remission. CONCLUSIONS: IBD patients are willing to accept high levels of lymphoma and serious infection risk to maintain disease remission. These preferences are congruent with the treatment paradigms emphasizing mucosal healing and early aggressive therapy and highlight patients' strong preferences for therapies resulting in durable remission of at least 5 years.

Psoriasis patients' willingness to accept side-effect risks for improved treatment efficacy.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that efficacy is more important than side-effect risks to psoriasis patients. However, those studies did not consider potentially fatal risks of biologic treatments. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the risks patients are willing to accept for improvements in psoriasis symptoms. METHODS: Adults with a self-reported physician diagnosis of psoriasis were recruited through the National Psoriasis Foundation. Using a discrete-choice experiment, patients completed a series of nine choice questions, each including a pair of hypothetical treatments. Treatments were defined by severity of plaques, body surface area (BSA), and 10-year risks of tuberculosis, serious infection and lymphoma. RESULTS: For complete clearance of 25% BSA with mild plaques, respondents (n = 1608) were willing to accept a 20% (95% confidence interval: 9-26%) risk of serious infection, 10% (5-15%) risk of tuberculosis and 2% (1-3%) risk of lymphoma. For complete clearance of 25% BSA with severe plaques, respondents were willing to accept a 54% (48-62%) risk of serious infection, 36% (28-49%) risk of tuberculosis and 8% (7-9%) risk of lymphoma. LIMITATIONS: Respondents were asked to evaluate hypothetical scenarios. Actual treatment choices may differ. CONCLUSION: Respondents were willing to accept risks above likely clinical exposures for improvements in psoriasis symptoms. Individual risk tolerances may vary.

Valuations of genetic test information for treatable conditions: the case of colorectal cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The value of the information that genetic testing services provide can be questioned for insurance-based health systems. The results of genetic tests oftentimes may not lead to well-defined clinical interventions; however, Lynch syndrome, a genetic mutation for which carriers are at an increased risk for colorectal cancer, can be identified through genetic testing, and meaningful health interventions are available via increased colonoscopic surveillance. Valuations of test information for such conditions ought to account for the full impact of interventions and contingent outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a discrete-choice experiment to elicit individuals' preferences for genetic test information. METHODS: A Web-enabled discrete-choice experiment survey was administered to a representative sample of US residents aged 50 years and older. In addition to specifying expenditures on colonoscopies, respondents were asked to make a series of nine selections between two hypothetical genetic tests or a no-test option under the premise that a relative had Lynch syndrome. The hypothetical genetic tests were defined by the probability of developing colorectal cancer, the probability of a false-negative test result, privacy of the result, and out-of-pocket cost. A model specification identifying necessary interactions was derived from assumptions of risk behavior and the decision context and was estimated using random-parameters logit. RESULTS: A total of 650 respondents were contacted, and 385 completed the survey. The monetary equivalent of test information was approximately $1800. Expenditures on colonoscopies to reduce mortality risks affected valuations. Respondents with lower income or who reported being employed significantly valued genetic tests more. CONCLUSION: Genetic testing may confer benefits through the impact of subsequent interventions on private individuals.

Adolescent girls' preferences for HPV vaccines: a discrete choice experiment.

PURPOSE: To measure adolescent girls' preferences over features of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in order to provide quantitative estimates of the perceived benefits of vaccination and potential vaccine uptake. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey was developed to measure adolescent girls' preferences over features of HPV vaccines. The survey was fielded to a U.S. sample of 307 girls aged 13-17 years who had not yet received an HPV vaccine in June 2008. FINDINGS: In a latent class logit model, two distinct groups were identified--one with strong preferences against vaccination which largely did not differentiate between vaccine features, and another that was receptive to vaccination and had well-defined preferences over vaccine features. Based on the mean estimates over the entire sample, we estimate that girls' valuation of bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines ranged between $400 and $460 in 2008, measured as willingness-to-pay (WTP). The additional value of genital warts protection was $145, although cervical cancer efficacy was the most preferred feature. We estimate maximum uptake of 54-65%, close to the 53% reported for one dose in 2011 surveillance data, but higher than the 35% for three doses in surveillance data. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: We conclude that adolescent girls do form clear opinions and some place significant value on HPV vaccination, making research on their preferences vital to understanding the determinants of HPV vaccine demand. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: DCE studies may be used to design more effective vaccine-promotion programs and for reassessing public health recommendations and guidelines as new vaccines are made available.

Patient preferences for surgical versus medical therapy for ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Therapy options for mesalamine-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) include immunosuppressive medications or surgery. Chronic immunosuppressive therapy increases risks of infection and cancer, whereas surgery produces a permanent change in bowel function. We sought to quantify the willingness of patients with UC to accept the risks of chronic immunosuppression to avoid colectomy. METHODS: We conducted a state-of-the-art discrete-choice experiment among 293 patients with UC who were offered a choice of medication or surgical treatments with different features. Random parameters logit was used to estimate patients' willingness to accept trade-offs among treatment features in selecting surgery versus medical treatment. RESULTS: A desire to avoid surgery and the surgery type (ostomy versus J-pouch) influenced patients' choices more than a specified range of 10-year mortality risks from lymphoma or infection, or disease activity (mild versus remission). To avoid an ostomy, patients were willing to accept a >5% 10-year risk of dying from lymphoma or infection from medical therapy, regardless of medication efficacy. However, data on patients' stated choice indicated perceived equivalence between J-pouch surgery and incompletely effective medical therapy. Patient characteristics and disease history influenced patients' preferences regarding surgery versus medical therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with UC are willing to accept relatively high risks of fatal complications from medical therapy to avoid a permanent ostomy and to achieve durable clinical remission. However, patients view J-pouch surgery, but not permanent ileostomy, as an acceptable therapy for refractory UC in which medical therapy is unable to induce a durable remission.

Eliciting benefit-risk preferences and probability-weighted utility using choice-format conjoint analysis.

This study applies conjoint analysis to estimate health-related benefit-risk tradeoffs in a non-expected-utility framework. We demonstrate how this method can be used to test for and estimate nonlinear weighting of adverse-event probabilities and we explore the implications of nonlinear weighting on maximum acceptable risk (MAR) measures of risk tolerance. We obtained preference data from 570 Crohn's disease patients using a web-enabled conjoint survey. Respondents were presented with choice tasks involving treatment options that involve different efficacy benefits and different mortality risks for 3 possible side effects. Using conditional logit maximum likelihood estimation, we estimate preference parameters using 3 models that allow for nonlinear preference weighting of risks--a categorical model, a simple-weighting model, and a rank dependent utility (RDU) model. For the second 2 models we specify and jointly estimate 1- and 2-parameter probability weighting functions. Although the 2-parameter functions are more flexible, estimation of the 1-parameter functions generally performed better. Despite well-known conceptual limitations, the simple-weighting model allows us to estimate weighting function parameters that vary across 3 risk types, and we find some evidence of statistically significant differences across risks. The parameter estimates from RDU model with the single-parameter weighting function provide the most robust estimates of MAR. For an improvement in Crohn's symptom severity from moderate and mild, we estimate maximum 10-year mortality risk tolerances ranging from 2.6% to 7.1%. Our results provide further the evidence that quantitative benefit-risk analysis used to evaluate medical interventions should account explicitly for the nonlinear probability weighting of preferences.

Are gastroenterologists less tolerant of treatment risks than patients? Benefit-risk preferences in Crohn's disease management.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease is a serious and debilitating gastrointestinal disorder with a high, unmet need for new treatments. Biologic agents have the potential to alter the natural course of Crohn's disease but present known risks of potential serious adverse events (SAEs). Previous studies have shown that patients are willing to accept elevated SAE risks in exchange for clinical efficacy. Gastroenterologists and patients may have similar goals of maximizing treatment benefit while minimizing risk; however, gastroenterologists may assess the relative importance of risk differently than patients. OBJECTIVE: To (a) understand how gastroenterologists caring for patients with Crohn's disease balance benefits and risks in their treatment decisions and (b) compare their treatment preferences with those of adult patients with Crohn's disease. METHODS: Both patient and gastroenterologist treatment preferences were elicited using a web-based, choice-format conjoint survey instrument. The conjoint questions required subjects to choose between 2 hypothetical treatment options with differing levels of treatment attributes. Patients evaluated the treatment options for themselves, and gastroenterologists evaluated the treatment options for each of 3 hypothetical patient types: (a) female aged 25 years with no history of Crohn's disease surgery (young), (b) male aged 45 years with 1 Crohn's disease surgery (middleaged), and (c) female older than 70 years with 4 Crohn's disease surgeries (older). Treatment attributes represented the expected outcomes of treatment: severity of daily symptoms, frequency of flare-ups, serious disease complications, oral steroid use, and the risks of 3 potentially fatal SAEs - lymphoma, serious or opportunistic infections, and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) - during 10 years of treatment. Maximum acceptable risk (MAR), defined as the highest level of SAE risk that subjects would accept in return for a given improvement in efficacy (i.e., the increase in treatment risk that exactly offsets the hypothetical increase in treatment benefit), was calculated using preference weights (parameter marginal log odds ratios) that were estimated with conjoint analysis (random parameters logit models). Gastroenterologists' and patients' mean MARs for 3 SAE risks were calculated for 6 improvements in Crohn's disease symptoms, and gastroenterologists' preference weights for each of the 3 patient profiles were compared. Gastroenterologists' MARs for a hypothetical middle-aged patient were then compared with predicted MARs derived using data from the patient study for male patients aged 40 to 50 years with 1 surgery. RESULTS: After exclusion of nonrespondents (n = 4,021 of 4,422 gastroenterologists; n = 681 of 1,285 patients) and nonevaluable respondents (n = 86 gastroenterologists; n = 24 patients), 315 gastroenterologists and 580 patients were included in the final analytic samples. There were no statistically significant differences in gastroenterologists' preference weights for the middle-aged versus young patient profiles. However, preference weights indicated that gastroenterologists are more concerned about 5% side-effect risks for the older patient profile than for the middle-aged patient profile. For symptomatic improvements from severe symptoms to remission, gastroenterologists' highest MARs were for lymphoma: 6.21%, 8.99%, and 25.00% for the young, middle-aged, and older patient types, respectively. In analyses of improvements from severe to moderate symptoms and from moderate symptoms to remission for hypothetical middle-aged patients, gastroenterologists' 10-year risk tolerance ranged between 1.96% lymphoma risk in return for an improvement from moderate symptoms to remission and 4.93% lymphoma risk for an improvement from severe to moderate symptoms; patients' 10-year risk tolerance for middle-aged patients ranged between 1.52% PML risk in return for an improvement from severe to moderate symptoms and 5.86% infection risk for an improvement from moderate symptoms to remission. On average, gastroenterologists and patients disagreed about how much risk is tolerable for improvements in efficacy. In exchange for improvements from severe to moderate symptoms for the middle-aged patient profile, gastroenterologists were significantly more tolerant than patients of treatment risks of PML (P < 0.001) and serious infection (P = 0.001) but not lymphoma (P = 0.230). In contrast, in exchange for improvements from moderate symptoms to remission for the same patient profile, patients were significantly more tolerant than gastroenterologists of treatment risks for serious infection (P < 0.001) and lymphoma (P < 0.001) but not PML (P = 0.158). CONCLUSIONS: Gastroenterologists and patients have well-defined preferences among treatment attributes and are willing to accept tradeoffs between efficacy and treatment risks. However, risk tolerance varies depending on the type of patient for whom gastroenterologists are being asked to consider treatment. In rating treatment preferences for patients with a middle-aged profile, gastroenterologists are less tolerant of SAE risks than patients in exchange for improvement from moderate symptoms to remission.

Mothers' preferences and willingness to pay for vaccinating daughters against human papillomavirus.

A choice-format, conjoint-analysis survey was developed and fielded to estimate how features of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines affect mothers' perceived benefit and stated vaccine uptake for daughters. Data were collected from a national sample of 307 U.S. mothers of girls aged 13-17 years who had not yet received an HPV vaccine. Preferences for four features of HPV vaccines were evaluated: protection against cervical cancer, protection against genital warts, duration of protection, and cost. We estimate that mean maximum willingness-to-pay (WTP)-an economic measure of the total benefits to consumers-for current HPV vaccine technology ranges between $560 and $660. All vaccine features were statistically significant determinants of WTP and uptake. Mothers were willing to pay $238 more for a vaccine that provides 90% protection for genital warts relative to a vaccine that provides no protection against warts. WTP for lifetime protection vs. 10 years protection was $245. Mothers strongly valued greater cervical cancer efficacy, with 100% protection against cervical cancers the most desired feature overall. Adding a second HPV vaccine choice to U.S. consumers' alternatives is predicted to increase stated uptake by 16%. Several features were significantly associated with stated choices and uptake: age of mother, race/ethnicity, household income, and concern about HPV risks. These findings provide new data on how HPV vaccines are viewed and valued by mothers, and how uptake may change in the context of evolving vaccine technology and as new data are reported on duration and efficacy.

Patient preferences and linear scoring rules for patient-reported outcomes.

BACKGROUND: : Many patient-reported outcomes (PRO) instruments are scored by averaging or summing Likert category values over all items or domains of the elicitation instrument, yielding domain-specific scores or a total score for the entire instrument. OBJECTIVE: : To evaluate differences between conventional linear and preference-weighted scores for PRO instruments used in asthma, oncology, and obesity. METHODS: : We estimated preference-weighted scores for all the items and response categories in the Onset-of-Effect Questionnaire (OEQ), the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ)-C30, and the Impact of Weight on Quality of Life Questionnaire-Lite version (IWQOL-Lite) using choice-format conjoint analysis, known also as discrete-choice experiments. RESULTS: : Conventional linear scoring rules can overstate the relative importance to patients of improvements in some domains and understate the relative importance of improvements in other domains. CONCLUSIONS: : Patient preference-weighted scores estimated by conjoint-analysis methods allow for non-linearities and account for the relative contribution of individual items and domains to patient well-being. Conventional linear scores and preference-weighted scores can result in different conclusions about the size of patient-reported treatment effects.