Identifying potentially low value surgical care: A national ecological study in England.

OBJECTIVES: High variation in clinical practice may indicate uncertainty and potentially low-value care. Methods to identify low value care are often not well defined or transparent and can be time intensive. In this paper we explore the usefulness of variation analysis of routinely-collected data about surgical procedures in England to identify potentially low-value surgical care. METHODS: This is a national ecological study using Hospital Episode Statistics linked to mid-year population estimates and indices of multiple deprivation in England, 2014/15-2018/19. We identified the top 5% of surgical procedures in terms of growth in standardised procedure rates for 2014/15 to 2018/19 and variation in procedure rates between clinical commissioning groups as measured by the systematic component of variance (SCV). A targeted literature review was conducted to explore the evidence for each of the identified techniques. Procedures without evidence of cost-effectiveness were viewed as of potentially low value. RESULTS: We identified six surgical procedures that had a high growth rate of 37% or more over 5 years, and four with higher geographical variation (SCV >1.6). There was evidence for two of the 10 procedures that surgery was more cost-effective than non-surgical treatment albeit with uncertainty around optimal surgical technique. The evidence base for eight procedures was less clear cut, with uncertainty around clinical- and/or cost-effectiveness. These were: deep brain stimulation; removing the prostate; surgical spine procedures; a procedure to alleviate pain in the spine; surgery for dislocated joints due to trauma and associated surgery for traumatic fractures; hip joint replacement with cemented pelvic component or cemented femoral component; and shoulder joint replacement. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that variation analysis could be regularly used to identify potentially low-value procedures. This can provide important insights into optimising services and the potential de-adoption of costly interventions and treatments that do not benefit patients and the health system more widely. Early identification of potentially low value care can inform prioritisation of clinical trials to generate evidence on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness before treatments become established in clinical practice.

Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning. METHODS: An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians. RESULTS: A higher number of beds (65-70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.

The impact of restricted provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee joints replacement during the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

AIMS: Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. METHODS: We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016-2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. RESULTS: We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements.

Access to publicly funded weight management services in England using routine data from primary and secondary care (2007-2020): An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.

Secondary healthcare costs after mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction for women with breast cancer in England: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy can improve the quality of life for women with breast cancer and rates are increasing. Long-term inpatient costs of care were estimated to understand the impact of different immediate breast reconstruction procedures on healthcare expenditure. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data were used to identify women undergoing unilateral mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction in English National Health Service hospitals (1 April 2009 to 31 March 2015) and any subsequent procedures performed to revise, replace, or complete the breast reconstruction. Costs were assigned to Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data using the Healthcare Resource Group 2020/21 National Costs Grouper. Generalized linear models were used to estimate mean cumulative costs for five immediate breast reconstruction procedures over 3 and 8 years, adjusting for covariates (age/ethnicity/deprivation). RESULTS: A total of 16 890 women underwent mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction: implant (5192; 30.7 per cent), expander (2826; 16.7 per cent), autologous latissimus dorsi flap (2372; 14.0 per cent), latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (3109; 18.4 per cent), and abdominal free-flap reconstruction (3391; 20.1 per cent). The mean (95 per cent c.i.) cumulative cost was lowest for latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant reconstruction (€20 103 (€19 582 to €20 625)) over 3 years and highest for abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€27 560 (€27 037 to €28 083)). Over 8 years, expander (€29 140 (€27 659 to €30 621)) and latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (€29 312 (€27 622 to €31 003)) reconstructions were the least expensive, while abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€34 536 (€32 958 to €36 113)) remained the most expensive, despite having lower costs for revisions and secondary reconstructions. This was driven primarily by the cost of the index procedure (€5435 (expander reconstruction) to €15 106 (abdominal free-flap reconstruction)). CONCLUSION: Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care Healthcare Resource Group data provided a comprehensive longitudinal cost assessment of secondary care. Although abdominal free-flap reconstruction was the most expensive option, higher costs of the index procedure need to be balanced against ongoing long-term costs of revisions/secondary reconstructions, which are higher after implant-based procedures.

Impact of pausing elective hip and knee replacement surgery during 2017 on subsequent service provision at a major NHS Trust: a descriptive observational study using interrupted time series.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the impact of a temporary cancellation of elective surgery in winter 2017 on trends in primary hip and knee replacement at a major National Health Service (NHS) Trust, and whether lessons can be learnt about efficient surgery provision. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational descriptive study using interrupted time series analysis of hospital records to explore trends in primary hip and knee replacement surgery at a major NHS Trust, as well as patient characteristics, 2016-2019. INTERVENTION: A temporary cancellation of elective services for 2 months in winter 2017. OUTCOMES: NHS-funded hospital admissions for primary hip or knee replacement, length of stay and bed occupancy. Additionally, we explored the ratio of elective to emergency admissions at the Trust as a measure of elective capacity, and the ratio of public to private provision of NHS-funded hip and knee surgery. RESULTS: After winter 2017, there was a sustained reduction in the number of knee replacements, a decrease in the proportion of most deprived people having knee replacements and an increase in average age for knee replacement and comorbidity for both types of surgery. The ratio of public to private provision dropped after winter 2017, and elective capacity generally has reduced over time. There was clear seasonality in provision of elective surgery, with less complex patients admitted during winter. CONCLUSIONS: Declining elective capacity and seasonality has a marked effect on the provision of joint replacement, despite efficiency improvements in hospital treatment. The Trust has outsourced less complex patients to independent providers, and/or treated them during winter when capacity is most limited. There is a need to explore whether these are strategies that could be used explicitly to maximise the use of limited elective capacity, provide benefit to patients and value for money for taxpayers.

Identification of risk factors associated with prolonged hospital stay following primary knee replacement surgery: a retrospective, longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors associated with prolonged length of hospital stay and staying in hospital longer than medically necessary following primary knee replacement surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Elective knee replacement surgeries between 2016 and 2019 were identified using routinely collected data from an NHS Trust in England. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2295 knee replacement patients with complete data included in analysis. The mean age was 68 (SD 11) and 60% were female. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed a binary length of stay outcome (>7 days), a continuous length of stay outcome (≤30 days) and a binary measure of whether patients remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. RESULTS: The mean length of stay was 5.0 days (SD 3.9), 15.4% of patients were in hospital for >7 days and 7.1% remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. Longer length of stay was associated with older age (b=0.08, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.09), female sex (b=0.36, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.67), high deprivation (b=0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.48) and more comorbidities (b=2.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 4.81). Remaining in hospital beyond being medically fit for discharge was associated with older age (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), female sex (OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.47) and high deprivation (OR=2.27, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06). CONCLUSIONS: The regression models could be used to identify which patients are likely to occupy hospital beds for longer. This could be helpful in scheduling operations to aid hospital efficiency by planning these patients' operations for when the hospital is less busy.

Microplastic atmospheric dustfall pollution in urban environment: Evidence from the types, distribution, and probable sources in Beijing, China.

Airborne microplastics (MPs) pollution is an environmental problem of increasing concern, due to the ubiquity, persistence and potential toxicity of plastics in the atmosphere. In recent years, most studies on MPs have focused on aquatic and sedimentary environments, but little research has been done on MPs in the urban atmosphere. In this study, a total of ten dustfall samples were collected in a transect from north to south across urban Beijing. The compositions, morphologies, and sizes of the MPs in these dustfall samples were determined by means of Laser Direct Infrared (LDIR) imaging and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM). The number concentrations of MPs in the Beijing dustfall samples show an average of 123.6 items/g. The MPs concentrations show different patterns in the central, southern, and northern zones of Beijing. The number concentration of MPs was the highest in the central zone (224.76 items/g), as compared with the southern zone (170.55 items/g), and the northern zone (24.42 items/g). The LDIR analysis revealed nine compositional types of MPs, including Polypropylene (PP), Polyamide (PA), Polystyrene (PS), Polyethylene (PE), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), Silicone, Polycarbonate (PC), Polyurethane (PU) and Polyvinylchloride (PVC), among which PP was overall dominant. The PP dominates the MPs in the central zone (76.3%), and the PA dominates the MPs in the southern zone (55.86%), while the northern zone had a diverse combination of MPs types. The morphological types of the individual MPs particle include fragments, pellets, and fibers, among which fragments are dominant (70.9%). FESEM images show the presence of aged MPs in the Beijing atmosphere, which could pose a yet unquantified health risk to Beijing's residents. The average size of the MPs in the Beijing samples is 66.62 µm. Our study revealed that the numbers of fibrous MPs increase with the decrease in size. This pollution therefore needs to be carefully monitored, and methods of decreasing the sources and mitigations developed.

Diagnosis and management of phyllodes tumours for the surgeon: An algorithm.

A Phyllodes Tumour (PT) is an uncommon fibroepithelial lesion, with three histological grades - benign, borderline and malignant. PTs cause significant challenges in diagnosis, management and prognostication. Recent publications have clarified the definitions and prognostication of PTs. Contemporary data currently challenge international guidelines on PT management. We performed an in-depth literature review to develop a best-practice management algorithm for PTs. Diagnostic recommendations are that neither current imaging techniques, nor fine-needle biopsies, can reliably diagnose a PT. Core needle biopsy is the optimal diagnostic technique. Indeterminate or suspicious lesions are recommended to undergo an excisional biopsy due to the inherently heterogeneous nature of PTs. Management guidelines are that benign PTs should be completely excised, although an involved margin is acceptable in select situations. Borderline PTs should have a clear margin on excision due to their higher risk of recurrence, as well as the potential for a recurrence to progress to a malignant PT. In malignant PTs, a margin of 3 mm is acceptable as there is no reduction in recurrence risk if margins are >3 mm. Routine axillary surgery is not indicated in PTs, with axillary surgery only indicated in a histologically-confirmed positive axilla. Adjuvant treatment recommendations are that borderline and malignant PTs should be discussed at MDT, with radiotherapy considered in both. Chemotherapy should be discussed in malignant PT patients. In summary, we have developed an up-to-date simple algorithm to guide the surgeon's management of patients diagnosed with PTs and reduce excessive surgery.

Oxidative potential and water-soluble heavy metals of size-segregated airborne particles in haze and non-haze episodes: Impact of the "Comprehensive Action Plan" in China.

Air pollution is a major environmental health challenge in megacities, and as such a Comprehensive Action Plan (CAP) was issued in 2017 for Beijing, the capital city of China. Here we investigated the size-segregated airborne particles collected after the implementation of the CAP, intending to understand the change of oxidative potential and water-soluble heavy metal (WSHM) levels in 'haze' and 'non-haze' days. The DNA damage and the levels of WSHM were analyzed by Plasmid Scission Assay (PSA) and High-Resolution Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS) techniques. The PM mass concentration was higher in the fine particle size (0.43-2.1 µm) during haze days, except for the samples affected by mineral dust. The particle-induced DNA damage caused by fine sized particles (0.43-2.1 µm) exceeded that caused by the coarse sized particles (4.7-10 µm). The DNA damage from haze day particles significantly exceeded those collected on non-haze days. Prior to the instigation of the CAP, the highest value of DNA damage decreased, and DNA damage was seen in the finer size (0.43-1.1 µm). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the concentrations of water-soluble Pb, Cr, Cd and Zn were positively correlated with DNA damage, suggesting that these WSHM had significant oxidative potential. The mass concentrations of water-soluble trace elements (WSTE) and individual heavy metals were enriched in the finer particles between 0.43 µm to 1.1 µm, implying that smaller sized particles posed higher health risks. In contrast, the significant reduction in the mass concentration of water-soluble Cd and Zn, and the decrease of the maximum and average values of DNA damage after the CAP, demonstrated its effectiveness in restricting coal-burning emissions. These results have demonstrated that the Beijing CAP policy has been successful in reducing the toxicity of 'respirable' ambient particles.

The oxidative capacity of indoor source combustion derived particulate matter and resulting respiratory toxicity.

Indoor air pollution sources with emissions of fine particles (PM2.5), including environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and incense smoke (IS) deteriorate indoor air quality and may cause respiratory diseases in humans. This study characterized the emission factors (EFs) of five types of tobacco and incense in Hong Kong using an environmental chamber. Human alveolar epithelial cells (A549) were exposed to PM2.5 collected from different indoor sources to determine their cytotoxicity. The PM2.5 EF of ETS (109.7±36.5 mg/g) was higher than IS (97.1±87.3 mg/g). The EFs of total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and carbonyls for IS were higher than ETS, and these two combustion sources showed similar distributions of individual PAHs and carbonyls. Oxidative damage and inflammatory responses (i.e. DNA damage, 8-hydroxy-desoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interlukin-6 (IL-6)) of A549 cells was triggered by exposure to PM2.5 generated from ETS and IS. Different indoor sources showed different responses to oxidative stress and inflammations due to the accumulation effects of mixed organic compounds. High molecular weight PAHs from incense combustion showed higher correlations with DNA damage markers, and most of the PAHs from indoor sources demonstrated significant correlations with inflammation. Exposure to anthropogenic produced combustion emissions such as ETS and IS results in significant risks (e.g. lung cancer) to the alveolar epithelium within the distal human respiratory tract, of which incense emissions posed a higher cytotoxicity.

Development of a novel mammalian display system for selection of antibodies against membrane proteins.

Reliable, specific polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies are important tools in research and medicine. However, the discovery of antibodies against their targets in their native forms is difficult. Here, we present a novel method for discovery of antibodies against membrane proteins in their native configuration in mammalian cells. The method involves the co-expression of an antibody library in a population of mammalian cells that express the target polypeptide within a natural membrane environment on the cell surface. Cells that secrete a single-chain fragment variable (scFv) that binds to the target membrane protein thereby become self-labeled, enabling enrichment and isolation by magnetic sorting and FRET-based flow sorting. Library sizes of up to 109 variants can be screened, thus allowing campaigns of naïve scFv libraries to be selected against membrane protein antigens in a Chinese hamster ovary cell system. We validate this method by screening a synthetic naïve human scFv library against Chinese hamster ovary cells expressing the oncogenic target epithelial cell adhesion molecule and identify a panel of three novel binders to this membrane protein, one with a dissociation constant (KD ) as low as 0.8 nm We further demonstrate that the identified antibodies have utility for killing epithelial cell adhesion molecule-positive cells when used as a targeting domain on chimeric antigen receptor T cells. Thus, we provide a new tool for identifying novel antibodies that act against membrane proteins, which could catalyze the discovery of new candidates for antibody-based therapies.

Particle-induced oxidative damage by indoor size-segregated particulate matter from coal-burning homes in the Xuanwei lung cancer epidemic area, Yunnan Province, China.

Size-segregated samples of airborne particulate matter were collected at the coal-burning homes of the Hutou high lung cancer epidemic village and a comparison site Xize village of the Xuanwei County, Yuanan Province, by an Anderson Cascade Impact Sampler in winter and spring to study the toxicological characteristics of different-sized particles. The DNA damage caused by the water-soluble fractions of these size-segregated particles was analyzed by the plasmid scission assay, and the trace element compositions were determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. The DNA damage rate from the airborne particles in the high lung cancer incidence area was higher than that in Xize village. The different-sized particles have highly varying DNA damage rates, with the values being greater in the small size range than in the large size range. The particle-induced DNA damage rates had a significantly positive correlation with total water-soluble trace elements. Further analysis of the individual elements indicated that the water-soluble heavy metals Zn, Cu, Cd, Rb, Cs, and Sb had a positive correlation with the particle-induced DNA damage, implying that these water-soluble heavy metals played an important role in the DNA damage. The Sr had a negative correlation with the particle-induced DNA damage, suggesting that the water-soluble Sr might counter DNA damage. The mass concentrations of the total and individual water-soluble trace elements were mostly enriched in the small particle size ranges, thus implying the indoor airborne particles in the small size ranges would have a higher health risk.

Varenicline versus nicotine replacement therapy for long-term smoking cessation: an observational study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the leading avoidable cause of illness and premature mortality. The first-line treatments for smoking cessation are nicotine replacement therapy and varenicline. Meta-analyses of experimental studies have shown that participants allocated to the varenicline group were 1.57 times (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.91 times) as likely to be abstinent 6 months after treatment as those allocated to the nicotine replacement therapy group. However, there is limited evidence about the effectiveness of varenicline when prescribed in primary care. We investigated the effectiveness and rate of adverse events of these medicines in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of prescribing varenicline on smoking cessation rates and health outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Clinical Practice Research Datalink. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study using electronic medical records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We extracted data on all patients who were prescribed varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy after 1 September 2006 who were aged ≥ 18 years. We investigated the effects of varenicline on smoking cessation, all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation for: (1) chronic lung disease, (2) lung cancer, (3) coronary heart disease, (4) pneumonia, (5) cerebrovascular disease, (6) diabetes, and (7) external causes; primary care diagnosis of myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, or prescription for anxiety; weight in kg; general practitioner and hospital attendance. Our primary outcome was smoking cessation 2 years after the first prescription. We investigated the baseline differences between patients prescribed varenicline and patients prescribed nicotine replacement therapy. We report results using multivariable-adjusted, propensity score and instrumental variable regression. Finally, we developed methods to assess the relative bias of the different statistical methods we used. RESULTS: People prescribed varenicline were healthier at baseline than those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy in almost all characteristics, which highlighted the potential for residual confounding. Our instrumental variable analysis results found little evidence that patients prescribed varenicline had lower mortality 2 years after their first prescription (risk difference 0.67, 95% confidence interval -0.11 to 1.46) than those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy. They had similar rates of all-cause hospitalisation, incident primary care diagnoses of myocardial infarction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. People prescribed varenicline subsequently attended primary care less frequently. Patients prescribed varenicline were more likely (odds ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.42 to 1.50) to be abstinent 6 months after treatment than those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy when estimated using multivariable-adjusted for baseline covariates. Patients from more deprived areas were less likely to be prescribed varenicline. However, varenicline had similar effectiveness for these groups. CONCLUSION: Patients prescribed varenicline in primary care were more likely to quit smoking than those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy, but there was little evidence that they had lower rates of mortality or morbidity in the 4 years following the first prescription. There was little evidence of heterogeneity in effectiveness across the population. FUTURE WORK: Future research should investigate the decline in prescribing of smoking cessation products; develop an optimal treatment algorithm for smoking cessation; use methods for using instruments with survival outcomes; and develop methods for comparing multivariable-adjusted and instrumental variable estimates. LIMITATIONS: Not all of our code lists were validated, body mass index and Index of Multiple Deprivation had missing values, our results may suffer from residual confounding, and we had no information on treatment adherence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as NCT02681848. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Smoking is the number one avoidable cause of ill health and death. Experiments suggest that more smokers will quit after being given the drug varenicline than with any other smoking cessation treatment. However, most of the experiments used to license varenicline had a relatively short follow-up (< 1 year) and did not necessarily recruit participants who were representative of smokers seen in a general practice in the UK, who tend to be older, are sicker and more likely to have neuropsychiatric illnesses. In this study, we investigated the outcomes of 287,079 patients prescribed varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy (e.g. nicotine patches and gum). We followed each patient for up to 4 years after they received their prescriptions and matched their data to information on deaths from the Office for National Statistics and hospital admissions. We investigated how often these patients subsequently attended their general practitioner, and how often they received a diagnosis of myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression or anxiety in primary care. We found that patients who were prescribed varenicline were much more likely to quit smoking up to 4 years after they received treatment and subsequently attended their general practitioner less frequently. These findings were robust across the three different analysis methods we used. We also found that patients prescribed varenicline were much less likely to be ill or to die than those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy. However, these results may be because the patients who were prescribed varenicline were much healthier before they received the prescription. Therefore, these differences in health are unlikely to be caused by taking varenicline or quitting smoking. In conclusion, varenicline helped patients quit smoking, but there was little causal evidence that prescribing patients varenicline causally reduced rates of mortality or morbidity compared with prescribing nicotine replacement therapy.

Prescribing Prevalence, Effectiveness, and Mental Health Safety of Smoking Cessation Medicines in Patients With Mental Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a prospective cohort study of the Clinical Practice Research Database to estimate rates of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribing and the relative effects on smoking cessation, and mental health. METHODS: We used multivariable logistic regression, propensity score matched regression, and instrumental variable analysis. Exposure was varenicline or NRT prescription. Mental disorders were bipolar, depression, neurotic disorder, schizophrenia, or prescriptions of antidepressants, antipsychotics, hypnotics/anxiolytics, mood stabilizers. Outcomes were smoking cessation, and incidence of neurotic disorder, depression, prescription of antidepressants, or hypnotics/anxiolytics. Follow-ups were 3, 6, and 9 months, and at 1, 2, and 4 years. RESULTS: In all patients, NRT and varenicline prescribing declined during the study period. Seventy-eight thousand four hundred fifty-seven smokers with mental disorders aged ≥18 years were prescribed NRT (N = 59 340) or varenicline (N = 19 117) from September 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015. Compared with smokers without mental disorders, smokers with mental disorders had 31% (95% CI: 29% to 33%) lower odds of being prescribed varenicline relative to NRT, but had 19% (95% CI: 15% to 24%) greater odds of quitting at 2 years when prescribed varenicline relative to NRT. Overall, varenicline was associated with decreased or similar odds of worse mental health outcomes than NRT in patients both with and without mental disorders, although there was some variation when analyses were stratified by mental disorder subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking cessation medication prescribing may be declining in primary care. Varenicline was more effective than NRT for smoking cessation in patients with mental disorders and there is not clear consistent evidence that varenicline is adversely associated with poorer mental health outcomes. IMPLICATIONS: Patients with mental disorders were less likely to be prescribed varenicline than NRT. We triangulated results from three analytical techniques. We found that varenicline was more effective than NRT for smoking cessation in patients with mental disorders. Varenicline was generally associated with similar or decreased odds of poorer mental health outcomes (ie, improvements in mental health) when compared with NRT. We report these findings cautiously as our data are observational and are at risk of confounding.

Long-term effectiveness and safety of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy in people with neurodevelopmental disorders: A prospective cohort study.

This study aimed to determine the effectiveness and safety of varenicline versus NRT for smoking cessation in people with neurodevelopmental disorders, compared to those without, at up to four years after exposure. We analysed electronic medical records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink using three different statistical approaches: multivariable logistic regression, propensity score matching (PSM), and instrumental variable analysis. Exposure was prescription of varenicline versus NRT and the primary outcome was smoking cessation at 2-years. We included 235,314 people aged 18 and above with eligible smoking cessation prescriptions in the effectiveness analysis. Smokers with neurodevelopmental disorders were 48% less likely (95% confidence interval: 42%, 54%) to be prescribed varenicline than NRT, compared to smokers without neurodevelopmental disorders. At 2-year follow-up, smokers with neurodevelopmental disorders prescribed varenicline were 38% more likely to quit smoking (95% confidence interval: 6%, 78%). Similar results were obtained using PSM and instrumental variable analyses. There was little evidence showing that varenicline increased the likelihood of mental health related adverse events in people with neurodevelopmental disorders. Varenicline is less likely to be prescribed to people with neurodevelopmental disorders despite results suggesting it is more effective than NRT and little evidence of increased likelihood of mental health related adverse events.

Use of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy in people with and without general practitioner-recorded dementia: retrospective cohort study of routine electronic medical records.

OBJECTIVES: Our primary objective was to estimate smoking prevalence and prescribing rates of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) in people with and without general practitioner (GP)-recorded dementia. Our secondary objective was to assess and compare quit rates of smokers with versus without GP-recorded dementia who were prescribed varenicline or NRT for smoking cessation. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study based on the analysis of electronic medical records within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-2015). SETTING: 683 general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: People with and without GP-recorded dementia, aged 18 years and have a code indicating that they are a current smoker. INTERVENTION: Index prescription of varenicline or NRT (from 1 September 2006). OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were smoking prevalence and prescribing rates of varenicline and NRT (2007-2015). The secondary outcome was smoking cessation at 2 years. RESULTS: Age and sex-standardised prevalence of smoking was slightly higher in people with GP-recorded dementia than in those without. There were 235 314 people aged 18 years and above prescribed NRT or varenicline. Among smokers with GP-recorded dementia (N=447), 409 were prescribed NRT and 38 varenicline. Smokers with GP-recorded dementia were 74% less likely (95% CI 64% to 82%) to be prescribed varenicline than NRT, compared with smokers without GP-recorded dementia. Compared with people without GP-recorded dementia, people with GP-recorded dementia had consistently lower prescribing rates of varenicline from 2007 to 2015. Two years after prescription, there was no clear evidence for a difference in the likelihood of smoking cessation after prescription of these medications between individuals with and without dementia (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.2). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2007 and 2015, people with GP-recorded dementia were less likely to be prescribed varenicline than those without dementia. Quit rates following prescription of either NRT or varenicline were similar in those with and without dementia.

Longitudinal study of use and cost of subacromial decompression surgery: the need for effective evaluation of surgical procedures to prevent overtreatment and wasted resources.

OBJECTIVES: To illustrate the need for better evaluation of surgical procedures, we investigated the use and cost of subacromial decompression in England over the last decade compared with other countries and explored how this related to the conduct and outcomes of randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trials. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics linked to Payment by Results tariffs in England, 2007/2008 to 2016/2017. SETTING: Hospital care in England; Finland; New York State, USA; Florida State, USA and Western Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with subacromial shoulder pain. INTERVENTIONS: Subacromial decompression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: National procedure rates, costs and variation between clinical commissioning groups in England. RESULTS: Without robust clinical evidence, the use of subacromial decompression in England increased by 91% from 15 112 procedures (30 per 100 000 population) in 2007/2008, to 28 802 procedures (52 per 100 000 population) in 2016/2017, costing over £125 million per year. Rates of use of subacromial decompression are even higher internationally: Finland (131 per 100 000 in 2011), Florida State (130 per 100 000 in 2007), Western Australia (115 per 100 000 in 2013) and New York State (102 per 100 000 in 2006). Two randomised placebo-controlled trials have recently (2018) shown the procedure to be no more effective than placebo or conservative approaches. Health systems appear unable to avoid the rapid widespread use of procedures of unknown effectiveness, and methods for ceasing ineffective treatments are under-developed. CONCLUSIONS: Without good evidence, nearly 30 000 subacromial decompression procedures have been commissioned each year in England, costing over £1 billion since 2007/2008. Even higher rates of procedures are carried out in countries with less regulated health systems. High quality randomised trials need to be initiated before widespread adoption of promising operative procedures to avoid overtreatment and wasted resources, and methods to prevent or desist the use of ineffective procedures need to be expedited.

Breaking bread: examining the impact of policy changes in access to state-funded provisions of gluten-free foods in England.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease affects approximately 1% of the population and is increasingly diagnosed in the United Kingdom. A nationwide consultation in England has recommend that state-funded provisions for gluten-free (GF) food should be restricted to bread and mixes but not banned, yet financial strain has prompted regions of England to begin partially or fully ceasing access to these provisions. The impact of these policy changes on different stakeholders remains unclear. METHODS: Prescription data were collected for general practice services across England (n = 7176) to explore changes in National Health Service (NHS) expenditure on GF foods over time (2012-2017). The effects of sex, age, deprivation and rurality on GF product expenditure were estimated using a multi-level gamma regression model. Spending rate within NHS regions that had introduced a 'complete ban' or a 'complete ban with age-related exceptions' was compared to spending in the same time periods amongst NHS regions which continued to fund prescriptions for GF products. RESULTS: Annual expenditure on GF products in 2012 (before bans were introduced in any area) was £25.1 million. Higher levels of GF product expenditure were found in general practices in areas with lower levels of deprivation, higher levels of rurality and higher proportions of patients aged under 18 and over 75. Expenditure on GF food within localities that introduced a 'complete ban' or a 'complete ban with age-related exceptions' were reduced by approximately 80% within the 3 months following policy changes. If all regions had introduced a 'complete ban' policy in 2014, the NHS in England would have made an annual cost-saving of £21.1 million (equivalent to 0.24% of the total primary care medicines expenditure), assuming no negative sequelae. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of more restrictive GF prescribing policies has been associated with 'quick wins' for NHS regions under extreme financial pressure. However, these initial savings will be largely negated if GF product policies revert to recently published national recommendations. Better evidence of the long-term impact of restricting GF prescribing on patient health, expenses and use of NHS services is needed to inform policy.

A longitudinal study to assess the frequency and cost of antivascular endothelial therapy, and inequalities in access, in England between 2005 and 2015.

OBJECTIVES: High-cost antivascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) medicines for eye disorders challenge ophthalmologists and policymakers to provide fair access for patients while minimising costs. We describe the growth in the use and costs of these medicines and measure inequalities in access. DESIGN: Longitudinal study using Hospital Episode Statistics (2005/2006 to 2014/2015) and hospital prescribing cost reports (2008/2009 to 2015/2016). We used Poisson regression to estimate standardised rates and explore temporal and geographical variations. SETTING: National Health Service (NHS) care in England. POPULATION: Patients receiving anti-VEGF injections for age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular oedema and other eye disorders. INTERVENTIONS: Higher-cost drugs (ranibizumab or aflibercept) recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence or lower-cost drug (bevacizumab) not licensed for eye disorders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: National procedure rates and variation between and within clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). Cost of ranibizumab and aflibercept prescribing. RESULTS: Injection procedures increased by 215% between 2010/2011 and 2014/2015. In 2014/2015 there were 388 031 procedures (714 per 100 000). There is no evidence that the dramatic growth in rates is slowing down. Since 2010/2011 the estimated cost of ranibizumab and aflibercept increased by 247% to £447 million in 2015/2016, equivalent to the entire annual budget of a CCG. There are large inequalities in access; in 2014/2015 procedure rates in a 'high use' CCG were 9.08 times higher than in a 'low use' CCG. In the South-West of England there was twofold variation in injections per patient per year (range 2.9 to 5.9). CONCLUSIONS: The high and rising cost of anti-VEGF therapy affects the ability of the NHS to provide care for other patients. Current regulations encourage the increasing use of ranibizumab and aflibercept rather than bevacizumab, which evidence suggests is more cost-effective. NHS patients in England do not have equal access to the most cost-effective care.