Screening Strategies to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality in Nursing Homes.

Importance: Nursing home residents continue to bear a disproportionate share of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, accounting for 9% of all US COVID-19 deaths in 2023, despite comprising only 0.4% of the population. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies in reducing COVID-19 mortality in nursing homes. Design and Setting: An agent-based model was developed to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the nursing home setting. Parameters were determined using SARS-CoV-2 virus data and COVID-19 data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that were published between 2020 and 2023, as well as data on nursing homes published between 2010 and 2023. The model used in this study simulated interactions and SARS-CoV-2 transmission between residents, staff, and visitors in a nursing home setting. The population used in the simulation model was based on the size of the average US nursing home and recommended staffing levels, with 90 residents, 90 visitors (1 per resident), and 83 nursing staff members. Exposure: Screening frequency (none, weekly, and twice weekly) was varied over 30 days against varying levels of COVID-19 community incidence, booster uptake, and antiviral use. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infections, detected cases per 1000 tests, and incremental cost of screening per life-year gained. Results: Nursing home interactions were modeled between 90 residents, 90 visitors, and 83 nursing staff over 30 days, completing 4000 to 8000 simulations per parameter combination. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of weekly and twice-weekly screening were less than $150 000 per resident life-year with moderate (50 cases per 100 000) and high (100 cases per 100 000) COVID-19 community incidence across low-booster uptake and high-booster uptake levels. When COVID-19 antiviral use reached 100%, screening incremental cost-effectiveness ratios increased to more than $150 000 per life-year when booster uptake was low and community incidence was high. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that screening may be effective for reducing COVID-19 mortality in nursing homes when COVID-19 community incidence is high and/or booster uptake is low. Nursing home administrators can use these findings to guide planning in the context of widely varying levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and intervention measures across the US.

Comparing Dementia Classification by Self-Report and Administrative Records in the National Core Indicators-Aging and Disability Survey: A Predictive Modeling Approach.

Policymakers are interested in the long-term services and supports (LTSS) needs of people living with dementia. The National Core Indicators-Aging and Disability (NCI-AD) survey is conducted to evaluate LTSS care needs. However, dementia reporting in NCI-AD varies across states, and is either obtained from state administrative records or self-reported during the survey. We explored the implications of identifying dementia from administrative records versus self-report. We analyzed 24,569 NCI-AD respondents age 65+, of which 22.4% had dementia. To assess dementia accuracy by data source, we fit separate logistic regression models using the administrative and self-reported subsamples. We applied model coefficients to the population whose dementia status came from the opposite source. Using the administrative model to predict self-reported dementia resulted in higher sensitivity than using the self-report model to predict administrative dementia (43.8% vs. 37.9%). The self-report model's diminished sensitivity suggests administrative records may capture cases of dementia missed by self-report.

Discharge locations after hospitalizations involving opioid use disorder among medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalizations involving opioid use disorder (OUD) have been increasing among Medicare beneficiaries of all ages. With rising OUD-related acute care use comes the need to understand where post-acute care is provided and the capacities for OUD treatment in those settings. Our objective was to describe hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with OUD, their post-acute care locations, and all-cause mortality and readmissions stratified by post-acute care location. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of acute hospitalizations using 2016-2018 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) files linked to Medicare enrollment data and the Residential History File (RHF) for 100% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The RHF which provides a person-level chronological history of health service utilization and locations of care was used to identify hospital discharge locations. We used ICD-10 codes for opioid dependence or "abuse" to identify OUD diagnoses from the MedPAR file. We conducted logistic regression to identify factors associated with discharge to an institutional setting versus home adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and hospital stay characteristics. RESULTS: Our analysis included 459,763 hospitalized patients with OUD. Of these, patients aged < 65 years and those dually enrolled in Medicaid comprised the majority (59.1%). OUD and opioid overdose were primary diagnoses in 14.3% and 6.2% of analyzed hospitalizations, respectively. We found that 70.3% of hospitalized patients with OUD were discharged home, 15.8% to a skilled nursing facility (SNF), 9.6% to a non-SNF institutional facility, 2.5% home with home health services, and 1.8% died in-hospital. Within 30 days of hospital discharge, rates of readmissions and mortality were 29.7% and 3.9%; respectively, with wide variation across post-acute locations. Factors associated with greater odds of discharge to institutional settings were older age, female sex, non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity, dual enrollment, longer hospital stay, more comorbidities, intensive care use, surgery, and primary diagnoses including opioid or other drug overdoses, fractures, and septicemia. CONCLUSIONS: More than one-quarter (25.8%) of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with OUD received post-acute care in a setting other than home. High rates and wide variation in all-cause readmissions and mortality within 30 days post-discharge emphasize the need for improved post-acute care for people with OUD.

Pharmacologic Interventions to Prevent Cognitive Decline, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Clinical Alzheimer-Type Dementia: A Systematic Review.

Background: Optimal treatment to prevent or delay cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia is uncertain. Purpose: To summarize current evidence on the efficacy and harms of pharmacologic interventions to prevent or delay cognitive decline, MCI, or dementia in adults with normal cognition or MCI. Data Sources: Several electronic databases from January 2009 to July 2017, bibliographies, and expert recommendations. Study Selection: English-language trials of at least 6 months' duration enrolling adults without dementia and comparing pharmacologic interventions with placebo, usual care, or active control on cognitive outcomes. Data Extraction: Two reviewers independently rated risk of bias and strength of evidence; 1 extracted data, and a second checked accuracy. Data Synthesis: Fifty-one unique trials were rated as having low to moderate risk of bias (including 3 that studied dementia medications, 16 antihypertensives, 4 diabetes medications, 2 nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] or aspirin, 17 hormones, and 7 lipid-lowering agents). In persons with normal cognition, estrogen and estrogen-progestin increased risk for dementia or a combined outcome of MCI or dementia (1 trial, low strength of evidence); high-dose raloxifene decreased risk for MCI but not for dementia (1 trial, low strength of evidence); and antihypertensives (4 trials), NSAIDs (1 trial), and statins (1 trial) did not alter dementia risk (low to insufficient strength of evidence). In persons with MCI, cholinesterase inhibitors did not reduce dementia risk (1 trial, low strength of evidence). In persons with normal cognition and those with MCI, these pharmacologic treatments neither improved nor slowed decline in cognitive test performance (low to insufficient strength of evidence). Adverse events were inconsistently reported but were increased for estrogen (stroke), estrogen-progestin (stroke, coronary heart disease, invasive breast cancer, and pulmonary embolism), and raloxifene (venous thromboembolism). Limitation: High attrition, short follow-up, inconsistent cognitive outcomes, and possible selective reporting and publication. Conclusion: Evidence does not support use of the studied pharmacologic treatments for cognitive protection in persons with normal cognition or MCI. Primary Funding Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Prioritizing Future Research on Allopurinol and Febuxostat for the Management of Gout: Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify the value of conducting additional research and reducing uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of allopurinol and febuxostat for the management of gout. METHODS: We used a previously developed Markov model that evaluated the cost effectiveness of nine urate-lowering strategies: no treatment, allopurinol-only fixed dose (300 mg), allopurinol-only dose escalation (up to 800 mg), febuxostat-only fixed dose (80 mg), febuxostat-only dose escalation (up to 120 mg), allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy fixed dose, allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy dose escalation, febuxostat-allopurinol sequential therapy fixed dose, and febuxostat-allopurinol sequential therapy dose escalation. Each strategy was evaluated over the lifetime of a hypothetical gout patient. We calculated population expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We used a linear regression meta-modeling approach to calculate population expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI), and a Gaussian approximation to calculate the population expected value of sample information for parameters (EVSI) and the expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) for four potential study designs: (1) an allopurinol efficacy trial; (2) a febuxostat efficacy trial; (3) a prospective observational study evaluating health utilities; and (4) a comprehensive study evaluating the efficacy of allopurinol and febuxostat and health utilities. A 5-year decision time horizon was used in the base-case analysis. RESULTS: EVPI varied by a decision maker's willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and was $US900 million for WTP of $US60,000 per QALY. Population EVPPI was highest across all WTP values for study design #4. For study design #4 and a WTP of $US60,000 per QALY, the optimal sample size was 735 patients per study arm. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of allopurinol and febuxostat dose escalation.

The cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5801 screening to guide initial urate-lowering therapy for gout in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Positive HLA-B*5801 carriers are at greater risk of experiencing rare but severe allopurinol hypersensitivity syndrome (AHS) [i.e., Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN)]; however, HLA-B*5801 prevalence and AHS risk vary by race/ethnicity. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5801 testing according to race/ethnicity in the United States. METHODS: We determined the cost-effectiveness of universal testing for HLA-B*5801 compared to no testing prior to the initiation of allopurinol per US major race/ethnicity groups. Using US-specific data, SJS/TEN risks and HLA-B*5801 prevalences were modeled per race/ethnicity (i.e., 1/3846 and 0.7% among Caucasians and Hispanics, 1/735 and 3.8% among African Americans, and 1/336 and 7.4% among Asians, respectively). Those who tested positive for HLA-B*5801 received febuxostat. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime. RESULTS: Compared to no testing, universal testing for HLA-B*5801 costs more and was more effective for all races/ethnicities. The ICERs varied substantially across racial/ethnic groups, following their HLA-B*5801 prevalences. HLA-B*5801 testing was cost-effective for African Americans (ICER $83,450) and Asians (ICER $64,190), but not for Caucasians or Hispanics (ICER $183,720), using accepted US willingness-to-pay threshold ($109,000/QALY). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses, except that reducing the risk of SJS/TEN by a half made testing not cost-effective for all races/ethnicities. CONCLUSION: Testing for HLA-B*5801 prior to allopurinol initiation is cost-effective for Asians and African Americans, but not for Caucasians or Hispanics in the United States. Reducing AHS risk by other predictive measures could make HLA-B*5801 testing not cost-effective even among Asians and Blacks.

Cost-effectiveness of allopurinol and febuxostat for the management of gout.

BACKGROUND: Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of urate-lowering treatment strategies for the management of gout. DESIGN: Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature and expert opinion. TARGET POPULATION: Patients for whom allopurinol or febuxostat is a suitable initial urate-lowering treatment. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care payer. INTERVENTION: 5 urate-lowering treatment strategies were evaluated: no treatment; allopurinol- or febuxostat-only therapy; allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy; and febuxostat-allopurinol sequential therapy. Two dosing scenarios were investigated: fixed dose (80 mg of febuxostat daily, 0.80 success rate; 300 mg of allopurinol daily, 0.39 success rate) and dose escalation (≤120 mg of febuxostat daily, 0.82 success rate; ≤800 mg of allopurinol daily, 0.78 success rate). OUTCOME MEASURES: Discounted costs, discounted quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: In both dosing scenarios, allopurinol-only therapy was cost-saving. Dose-escalation allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy was more costly but more effective than dose-escalation allopurinol therapy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $39 400 per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The relative rankings of treatments did not change. Our results were relatively sensitive to several potential variations of model assumptions; however, the cost-effectiveness ratios of dose escalation with allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy remained lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $109 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. LIMITATION: Long-term outcome data for patients with gout, including medication adherence, are limited. CONCLUSION: Allopurinol single therapy is cost-saving compared with no treatment. Dose-escalation allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy is cost-effective compared with accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Cost and cost effectiveness of vaginal progesterone gel in reducing preterm birth: an economic analysis of the PREGNANT trial.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (PTB) is a costly public health problem in the USA. The PREGNANT trial tested the efficacy of vaginal progesterone (VP) 8 % gel in reducing the likelihood of PTB among women with a short cervix. OBJECTIVE: We calculated the costs and cost effectiveness of VP gel versus placebo using decision analytic models informed by PREGNANT patient-level data. METHODS: PREGNANT enrolled 459 pregnant women with a cervical length of 10-20 mm and randomized them to either VP 8 % gel or placebo. We used a cost model to estimate the total cost of treatment per mother and a cost-effectiveness model to estimate the cost per PTB averted with VP gel versus placebo. Patient-level trial data informed model inputs and included PTB rates in low- and high-risk women in each study group at <28 weeks gestation, 28-31, 32-36, and ≥37 weeks. Cost assumptions were based on 2010 US healthcare services reimbursements. The cost model was validated against patient-level data. Sensitivity analyses were used to test the robustness of the cost-effectiveness model. RESULTS: The estimated cost per mother was $US23,079 for VP gel and $US36,436 for placebo. The cost-effectiveness model showed savings of $US24,071 per PTB averted with VP gel. VP gel realized cost savings and cost effectiveness in 79 % of simulations. CONCLUSION: Based on findings from PREGNANT, VP gel was associated with cost savings and cost effectiveness compared with placebo. Future trials designed to include cost metrics are needed to better understand the value of VP.

Payer decision-making with limited comparative and cost effectiveness data: the case of new pharmacological treatments for gout.

CONTEXT: The need for comparative effectiveness (CE) data continues to grow, fuelled by market demand as well as health reform. There may be an assumption that new drugs result in improved efficacy compared with the standard of care, therefore warranting premium prices. Gout treatment has recently become controversial, as expensive new drugs enter the market with limited CE data. METHODS: The authors reviewed published clinical trials and conducted a cost effectiveness analysis on a new drug (febuxostat) versus the standard (allopurinol) to illustrate the limitations in using these data to inform evidence-based decision-making. FINDINGS: Although febuxostat trials included allopurinol as a comparator, methodological limitations make comparative effectiveness evaluations difficult. However, when available trial data were input to a decision analytic model, the authors found that a significant reduction in febuxostat cost would be required in order for it to dominate allopurinol in cost effectiveness analysis. This case exemplifies the challenges of using clinical trial data in comparative and cost effectiveness analyses.

Financial analysis of technology acquisition using fractionated lasers as a model.

Ablative fractional lasers are among the most advanced and costly devices on the market. Yet, there is a dearth of published literature on the cost and potential return on investment (ROI) of such devices. The objective of this study was to provide a methodological framework for physicians to evaluate ROI. To facilitate this analysis, we conducted a case study on the potential ROI of eight ablative fractional lasers. In the base case analysis, a 5-year lease and a 3-year lease were assumed as the purchase option with a $0 down payment and 3-month payment deferral. In addition to lease payments, service contracts, labor cost, and disposables were included in the total cost estimate. Revenue was estimated as price per procedure multiplied by total number of procedures in a year. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for variability in model assumptions. Based on the assumptions of the model, all lasers had higher ROI under the 5-year lease agreement compared with that for the 3-year lease agreement. When comparing results between lasers, those with lower operating and purchase cost delivered a higher ROI. Sensitivity analysis indicates the model is most sensitive to purchase method. If physicians opt to purchase the device rather than lease, they can significantly enhance ROI. ROI analysis is an important tool for physicians who are considering making an expensive device acquisition. However, physicians should not rely solely on ROI and must also consider the clinical benefits of a laser.

FILLERS-Q: an instrument for assessing patient experiences after treatment with facial injectable soft tissue fillers.

Patient-reported outcomes data are limited after injectable soft tissue filler treatment. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are becoming integral to medical practices in other specialties and will become so as well in facial plastic surgery. The obvious differences in types of disorders treated and the outcomes of primary importance seen between general medical/surgical and facial plastic surgery practices make institution of standard outcomes studies difficult in facial plastic surgery. However, understanding the patient's experience and satisfaction with treatment is essential to continue to provide excellent care to facial aesthetic patients. This article describes use of a new survey instrument, Facial Injectables: Longevity, Late and Early Reactions and Satisfaction Questionnaire (FILLERS-Q), in assessing patient response to facial injections of soft tissue fillers. FILLERS-Q is a 43-item questionnaire that captures patient demographics (4 items), patient satisfaction with treatment (10 items), procedure-related events (3 to 7 items), impact on relationships (9 to 15 items), and economic considerations related to dermal filler treatment (3 to 7 items). The results provide a "snapshot" of patients treated in an individual surgeon's practice.