Heart rate and premature atrial contractions at 24hECG independently predict atrial fibrillation in a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Low resting heart rate and premature atrial contractions (PACs) predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and could be interdependent, since PACs occur in the gaps between normal beats. OBJECTIVE: To study the association between low heart rate at 24hECG, PACs and incident AF in a prospective population-based cohort. METHODS: In the Malmö Diet and Cancer study, 24hECGs were performed in 377 AF-free subjects. The endpoint was clinical AF retrieved from national hospital (mean follow-up 17 years). The interaction between increased supraventricular activity (SVA) top quartile of either PACs/hour or supraventricular tachycardias/hour) and mean heart rate (mHR) as regards AF risk was assessed in multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, height, BMI, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, smoking and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. RESULTS: There were 80 (21%) incident cases of AF. Below median mHR (80 bpm/75 bpm for women/men) was associated with increased AF incidence (HR: 1.89, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.02, p=0.008). There was no correlation between mHR and SVA (p=0.6) or evidence of a multiplicative interaction between these factors for AF risk (p for interaction=0.6) In the group with both increased SVA and below median mHR (17% of the population) the relative risk of AF was very high (HR 4.5, 95% CI 2.2 to 9.1, p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Low mHR at 24hECG independently predicts AF, but there is no association between mHR and SVA, and these factors are independent as regards AF risk. Subjects with both low mHR and increased SVA have high AF risk.

Irregularity and lack of p waves in short tachycardia episodes predict atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is defined as an irregular supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) without p waves, with duration >30 seconds. Whether AF characteristics during short SVT episodes predict AF and stroke is not known. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether irregularity and lack of p waves, alone or in combination, during short SVT episodes increase the risk of incident AF and ischemic stroke. METHODS: The population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer study includes 24-hour ECG screening of 377 AF-free individuals (mean age 64.5 years; 43% men) who were prospectively followed for >13 years. There were 65 AF events and 25 ischemic stroke events during follow-up. Subjects with an SVT episode ≥5 beats were identified, and the longest SVT episode was assessed for irregularity and lack of p waves. The association between SVT classification and AF and stroke was assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox regression. RESULTS: The incidence of AF increased with increasing abnormality of the SVTs. The risk-factor adjusted hazard ratio for AF was 4.95 (95% confidence interval 2.06-11.9; P <.0001) for those with short irregular SVTs (<70 beats) without p waves. The incidence of ischemic stroke was highest in the group with regular SVT episodes without p waves (hazard ratio 14.2; 95% confidence interval 3.76-57.6; P <.0001, adjusted for age and sex). CONCLUSION: Characteristics of short SVT episodes detected at 24-hour ECG screening are associated with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Short irregular SVTs without p waves likely represent early stages of AF or atrial myopathy. Twenty-four-hour ECG could identify subjects suitable for primary prevention efforts.

ST segment depression on 24-hour electrocardiography predicts incident atrial fibrillation in two population-based cohorts.

Aims: ST-depression at 24hECG has not been studied in relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. We aimed to determine whether ST-depression at 24hECG was associated with incident AF in two Swedish population-based cohorts - a sub-cohort of the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDCS), and the cohort 'Men born in 1914', and to determine whether 24hECG could be used to predict AF development. Methods and results: There were 378 acceptable 24hECG recordings in the MDCS (mean age 64.5 years, 43% men) and 394 acceptable recordings in 'Men born in 1914' (mean age 68.8 years). Incidence of AF was monitored using national registers of hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Sweden. Mean follow-up ± SD (cumulative incidence) was 10.4 ± 2 years (11.3%) in MDCS, and 10.9 ± 4 years (7.3%) in 'Men born in 1914'. ST-depressions were independently associated with incident AF; hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) 2.41 (1.29-4.50, P = 0.006) and 2.28 (1.05-4.95, P = 0.038) after adjustment [age, sex, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, smoking, anti-hypertensive drugs, LDL/total cholesterol, and HOMA-IR (in MDCS)]. AF incidence was substantially lower in individuals who had neither ST-depressions or high supraventricular activity (SVA, negative predictive value 0.97 and 0.94, in MDCS and 'Men born in 1914', respectively), and similar in men and women. Conclusion: ST-depression at 24h-ECG is independently associated with incident AF, and incidence is substantially lower in individuals with neither ST-depression or high SVA. 24hECG can be used not only to diagnose AF but also to identify individuals at high and low AF risk.

A prospective study of supraventricular activity and incidence of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes are thought to be started by an electrical trigger reaching susceptible atria. Such a trigger could be present long before the occurrence of sustained symptomatic arrhythmia. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether supraventricular extrasystoles (SVESs) and supraventricular tachycardias (SVTs) measured at 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram were associated with an increased incidence of AF. METHODS: In 1998-2000, 389 individuals (44% men; mean age 65 years) were examined using 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram. Six individuals with known prevalent AF were excluded. After a mean follow-up of 10.3 years, there were 45 cases of incident AF. Hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using multivariable Cox regression adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, height, weight, smoking, and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance. RESULTS: Frequency of SVESs as well as SVT episodes per hour were independent predictors of incident AF (HR per log unit 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.68; P = .001 and HR 1.95; 95% confidence interval 1.21-3.13; P = .006, respectively). Further adjustment for education level, alcohol use, use of medication, and physical activity did not substantially alter the results, nor did analysis using competing risks regression accounting for a competing risk of death. The maximum duration of SVT or the heart rate at SVT was not significantly associated with the incidence of AF. CONCLUSION: SVESs and SVTs independently predict AF. The prognostic significance was similar for SVESs, SVTs, and a combination of the two. Repeated efforts to detect AF could be of merit in individuals with frequent supraventricular activity.

A dedicated investigation unit improves management of syncopal attacks (Syncope Study of Unselected Population in Malmo--SYSTEMA I).

AIMS: To investigate whether a systematic approach to unexplained syncopal attacks based on the European Society of Cardiology guidelines would improve the diagnostic and therapeutic outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients presenting with transient loss of consciousness to the Emergency Department of Skåne University Hospital in Malmö were registered by triage staff. Those with established cardiac, neurological, or other definite aetiology and those with advanced dementia were excluded. The remaining patients were offered evaluation based on an expanded head-up tilt test protocol, which included carotid sinus massage, and nitroglycerine challenge if needed. Out of 201 patients registered over a period of 6 months, 129 (64.2%) were found to be eligible; of these, 101 (38.6% men, mean age 66.3 +/- 18.4 years) decided to participate in the study. Head-up tilt test allowed diagnoses in 91 cases (90.1%). Vasovagal syncope (VVS) was detected in 45, carotid sinus hypersensitivity (CSH) in 27, and orthostatic hypotension (OH) in 51 patients. Twelve patients with VVS and 15 with CSH also had OH, whereas 25 were diagnosed with OH only. In a multivariate logistic regression, OH was independently associated with age [OR (per year): 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P = 0.001], history of hypertension (2.73, 1.05-7.09, P = 0.039), lowered estimated glomerular filtration rate (per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2): 1.17, 1.01-1.33, P = 0.032), use of loop diuretics (10.44, 1.22-89.08, P = 0.032), and calcium-channel blockers (5.29, 1.03-27.14, P = 0.046), while CSH with age [(per year) 1.12, 1.05-1.19, P < 0.001), use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (4.46, 1.22-16.24, P = 0.023), and nitrates (27.88, 1.99-389.81, P = 0.013). CONCLUSION: A systematic approach to patients presenting with unexplained syncopal attacks considerably increased diagnostic efficacy and accuracy. Potential syncope diagnoses have a tendency to overlap and show diversity in demographic, anamnestic, and pharmacological determinants.