A machine learning-based choledocholithiasis prediction tool to improve ERCP decision making: a proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies demonstrated limited accuracy of existing guidelines for predicting choledocholithiasis, leading to overutilization of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). More accurate stratification may improve patient selection for ERCP and allow use of lower-risk modalities. METHODS: A machine learning model was developed using patient information from two published cohort studies that evaluated performance of guidelines in predicting choledocholithiasis. Prediction models were developed using the gradient boosting model (GBM) machine learning method. GBM performance was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Important predictors of choledocholithiasis were identified based on relative importance in the GBM. RESULTS: 1378 patients (mean age 43.3 years; 61.2% female) were included in the GBM and 59.4% had choledocholithiasis. Eight variables were identified as predictors of choledocholithiasis. The GBM had accuracy of 71.5% (SD 2.5%) (AUC 0.79 [SD 0.06]) and performed better than the 2019 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines (accuracy 62.4% [SD 2.6%]; AUC 0.63 [SD 0.03]) and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) guidelines (accuracy 62.8% [SD 2.6%]; AUC 0.67 [SD 0.02]). The GBM correctly categorized 22% of patients directed to unnecessary ERCP by ASGE guidelines, and appropriately recommended as the next management step 48% of ERCPs incorrectly rejected by ESGE guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning-based tool was created, providing real-time, personalized, objective probability of choledocholithiasis and ERCP recommendations. This more accurately directed ERCP use than existing ASGE and ESGE guidelines, and has the potential to reduce morbidity associated with ERCP or missed choledocholithiasis.

Tea Harvesting and Processing Techniques and Its Effect on Phytochemical Profile and Final Quality of Black Tea: A Review.

Tea (Camellia sinensis) has grown for over 300 years and is recognized worldwide as among other well-renowned crops. The quality of black tea depends on plucking (method, standard, season, and intervals), withering and rolling (time and temperature), fermentation (time, temperature, and RH), drying (temperature and method), and storage conditions, which have a high influence on the final quality of black tea. At the rolling stage, the oxidation process is initiated and ends at the early drying stage until the enzymes that transform tea polyphenols into thearubigins (TRs) and theaflavins (TFs) are denatured by heat. By increasing fermentation time, TRs increased, and TF decreased. Each is liable for black tea's brightness, taste, and color. The amino acids and essential oils also grant a distinctive taste and aroma to black tea. Throughout withering, rolling, and fermentation, increases were found in essential oil content, but during drying, a decrease was observed. However, the Maillard reaction, which occurs when amino acids react with sugar during drying, reimburses for this decrease and enhances the flavor and color of black tea. As compared to normal conditions, accelerated storage showed a slight decrease in the total color, TF, and TRs. It is concluded that including plucking, each processing step (adopted technique) and storage system has a remarkable impact on black tea's final quality. To maintain the quality, an advanced mechanism is needed to optimize such factors to produce high-quality black tea, and an objective setting technique should be devised to attain the desirable quality characteristics.

Frequent guidewire passage into the pancreatic duct is an independent risk factor for postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) among high-risk individuals: A post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial data.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically evaluate the patient and procedural risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) among patients receiving rectal indomethacin. METHODS: Data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of high-risk patients undergoing ERCP who received rectal indomethacin with or without topical epinephrine was evaluated. PEP was defined based on the consensus criteria. Pancreatic stenting was excluded to avoid confounding results with the role of epinephrine spray. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify patient and procedural risk factors for PEP. RESULTS: Among 960 patients enrolled in the RCT, the PEP incidence was 6.4%. An increased risk of PEP was seen with age <50 years and female gender (odds ratio [OR] 2.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-4.26), malignant biliary stricture(s) (OR 3.51, 95% CI 1.52-8.10), >2 guidewire passes into the pancreatic duct (PD) (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.43-5.64), and pancreatic brush cytology (OR 6.37, 95% CI 1.10-36.90), whereas a decreased risk of PEP was seen with contrast- over guidewire-assisted cannulation (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-0.99) and the use of lactated Ringer's (LR) over other fluid types (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.27-0.98). There was a significant trend between the number of guidewire passes into the PD and PEP risk (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: More than two guidewire passes into the PD and pancreatic brush cytology increased while the use of LR decreased the risk of PEP among high-risk patients receiving rectal indomethacin. Pancreatic stent placement and/or LR should be considered in patients with >2 guidewire passes into the PD.

Effective, safe and efficient porcine model of Forrest Ib bleeding gastric and colonic ulcers.

BACKGROUND: Developing effective gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding animal models is necessary to advance endoscopic hemostasis methods and train endoscopists on their use. Our aim, therefore, was to develop an effective and safe porcine GI bleeding model in the stomach and colon of large and small-sized oozing-type ulcers. METHODS: Gastric and colonic bleeding ulcers were created using either a hybrid endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) technique or a cap-assisted endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR-C) technique in 14 pigs. Prior to ulcer creation, animals were treated with either oral apixaban or intravenous (IV) unfractionated heparin anticoagulation in combination with clopidogrel and aspirin. The primary outcome was the technical success of inducing oozing-type Forrest Ib bleeding ulcers. Secondary outcomes included ulcer diameter, number, creation time and the number of complications associated with each technique. RESULTS: Using hybrid ESD and IV heparin anticoagulation, bleeding was observed in 21/23 (91.3%) gastric ulcers and 6/7 (85.7%) colonic ulcers created. The mean diameter and ulcer creation time were 2.3 ± 0.3 cm and 5.3 ± 0.5 min, respectively, for gastric ulcers and 2.2 ± 0.4 cm and 4.06 ± 0.6 min, respectively, for colonic ulcers. Using EMR-C and IV heparin anticoagulation, bleeding was observed in 14/15 (93.3%) gastric ulcers and 6/6 (100%) colonic ulcers created. The mean diameter and ulcer creation time were 0.8 ± 0.2 cm and 2.1 ± 0.5 min, respectively, for gastric ulcers and 0.7 ± 0.2 cm and 1.7 ± 0.3 min, respectively, for colonic ulcers. None of the ulcers created in animals anticoagulated with apixaban developed bleeding. None of the 14 pigs developed any complications. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated the effectiveness and safety of a porcine GI bleeding model utilizing IV heparin anticoagulation and either hybrid ESD or EMR-C techniques to create oozing-type bleeding ulcers in the stomach and colon with customizable size.

Comparative diagnostic accuracy of EUS needles in solid pancreatic masses: a network meta-analysis.

Background and study aims Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided tissue sampling is the standard of care for diagnosing solid pancreatic lesions. While many two-way comparisons between needle types have been made in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), it is unclear which size and type of needle offers the best probability of diagnosis. We therefore performed a network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare different sized and shaped needles to rank the diagnostic performance of each needle. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases through August, 2020 for RCTs that compared the diagnostic accuracy of EUS fine-needle aspiration (FNA) and biopsy (FNB) needles in solid pancreatic masses. Using a random-effects NMA under the frequentist framework, RCTs were analyzed to identify the best needle type and sampling technique. Performance scores (P-scores) were used to rank the different needles based on pooled diagnostic accuracy. The NMA model was used to calculate pairwise relative risk (RR) with 95 % confidence intervals. Results Review of 2577 studies yielded 29 RCTs for quantitative synthesis, comparing 13 different needle types. All 22G FNB needles had an RR > 1 compared to the reference 22G FNA (Cook) needle. The highest P-scores were seen with the 22G Medtronic FNB needle (0.9279), followed by the 22G Olympus FNB needle (0.8962) and the 22G Boston Scientific FNB needle (0.8739). Diagnostic accuracy was not significantly different between needles with or without suction. Conclusions In comparison to FNA needles, FNB needles offer the highest diagnostic performance in sampling pancreatic masses, particularly with 22G FNB needles.

Risk factors for lymph node metastasis and survival of patients with nonampullary duodenal carcinoid tumors treated with endoscopic therapy versus surgical resection: analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic therapy (ET) has been used to treat nonampullary duodenal neuroendocrine tumors (NAD-NETs) ≤10 mm in size, but data on long-term outcomes are limited. In addition, management of 11- to 19-mm NAD-NETs is not well defined because of variable estimates of risk of metastasis. We aimed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of metastasis of NAD-NETs ≤19 mm and evaluate the long-term survival of patients after ET as compared with radical surgery. METHODS: The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Result database was used to identify 1243 patients with T1-2 histologically confirmed NAD-NETs ≤19 mm in size. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated. RESULTS: Overall, 4.8% of cases had metastasis at the time of diagnosis, with lower prevalence in ≤10-mm lesions (3.1%) versus 11- to 19-mm lesions (11.7%, P < .001). The risk factors for metastases included invasion to the muscularis propria (odds ratio, 25.95; 95% confidence interval, 9.01-76.70), age <65 years (odds ratio, 1.93), submucosal involvement (odds ratio, 3.1), and 11 to 19 mm in size (vs ≤10 mm). In patients with well- to moderately differentiated T1-2N0M0 NAD-NETs ≤19 mm confined to the mucosa/submucosa who underwent ET or surgery, the 5-year CSS was 100%. The 5-year OS was similar between the ≤10-mm and 11- to 19-mm groups (86.6% vs 91.0%, P = .31) and the ET and surgery groups (87.4% vs 87.5%, P = .823). CONCLUSIONS: In NAD-NETs, invasion to the muscularis propria is the strongest risk factor for metastasis. In the absence of metastasis, in lesions with well/moderate differentiation and without muscle invasion, ET is adequate for NAD-NETs ≤10 mm and is a viable option for 11- to 19-mm lesions.

Comparable Cancer-Specific Mortality of Patients With Early Gastric Cancer Treated With Endoscopic Therapy vs Surgical Resection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Endoscopic therapy is used commonly for superficial gastric cancer with very low risk of metastasis to the lymph nodes. However, limited population-based studies from the West have evaluated long-term outcomes of patients who received endoscopic therapy vs surgery. METHODS: We used the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database to identify and compare features and outcomes of patients who underwent endoscopic therapy (n = 786) or surgery (n = 2577) for Tis or T1aN0M0 superficial gastric cancer, diagnosed from 1998 to 2014. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with endoscopic therapy. Overall survival and gastric cancer-specific survival times were compared after we controlled for covariates. RESULTS: Use of endoscopic therapy increased from 15.1% of cases in 1998 to 2000 to 39.0% of cases in 2013 to 2014. Endoscopic therapy was used more frequently in patients who were older, female, or Caucasian, or with lesions that were located in the proximal stomach or were limited in depth (Tis vs T1a) and size, compared with surgery. The median follow-up time was 59 months (interquartile range, 31-102 mo). Percentages of 5-year overall and cancer-specific survival were 57% and 99% in the endoscopic therapy group and 76% and 95% in the surgery group. After we adjusted for clinical factors using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we found no significant difference in gastric cancer-specific mortality between patients who received endoscopic therapy vs surgery (hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.91-2.23; P = .12). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of a large population database, we found an increased trend in endoscopic therapy for superficial gastric cancer compared with surgery from 1998 through 2014. Patients who received endoscopic therapy vs surgery had comparable long-term cancer-specific mortality.

Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulators reduce the risk of recurrent acute pancreatitis among adult patients with pancreas sufficient cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 1 in 5 patients with pancreas sufficient cystic fibrosis (PS-CF) will develop acute pancreatitis (AP). It is not known whether ivacaftor alone or in combination with other CFTR (cystic transmembrane regulator) modulators (tezacaftor or lumacaftor) can reduce the risk of AP in patients with PS-CF and AP history. METHODS: We retrospectively queried the CF registry at our institution for adult patients with PS-CF, a documented history of AP and initiation of CFTR modulators for pulmonary indications. Patient characteristics including demographics, CFTR genotype, pancreatitis risk factors, pancreatic exocrine function and other relevant laboratory, imaging parameters were obtained from the time of the sentinel AP episode through the follow-up period. RESULTS: A total of 15 adult CF patients were identified with mean age of 44.1 years (SD ±â€¯13.8). In the 24 months preceding CFTR modulator initiation, six of these patients had at least 1 episode of AP with median of 2 episodes [1.75, 2.5]. None of the patients had evidence of pancreatic calcifications or exocrine pancreas insufficiency at the time of CFTR modulator initiation. The mean duration of follow-up after CFTR modulator initiation was 36.7 months (SD ±â€¯21.5). None of the patients who remained on CFTR modulators developed an episode of AP or required hospitalization for AP related abdominal pain during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: CFTR modulators, alone or in combination, substantially reduce the risk of recurrent AP over a mean follow-up period of 3 years in adult patients with PS-CF and a history of prior AP. These data suggest that any augmentation of CFTR function can reduce the risk of pancreatitis.

Prevalence of metastasis and survival of 788 patients with T1 rectal carcinoid tumors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Prevalence of rectal carcinoids is increasing, partly because of increased colorectal cancer screening. Local excision (endoscopic or transanal excision) is usually performed for small (<1-2 cm) rectal carcinoids, but data on clinical outcomes from large population-based U.S. studies are lacking. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of metastasis of resected small rectal carcinoid tumors using a large national cancer database and to evaluate the long-term survival of patients after local resection as compared with radical surgery. METHODS: The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database was used to identify 788 patients with rectal T1 carcinoids <2 cm in size. Prevalence of metastases at initial diagnosis and risk factors for metastases were analyzed. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 727 patients (92.3%) had tumors ≤10 mm in diameter and 61 (7.7%) had tumors 11 to 19 mm. Overall, 12 patients (1.5%) had metastasis at the time of diagnosis with prevalence of 1.1% in lesions ≤10 mm and 6.6% in lesions 11 to 19 mm (P = .01). Survival of patients with T1 rectal carcinoids without metastasis was significantly better than those with metastasis (5-year CSS of 100% vs 78%, P < .001). Of 559 patients with T1N0M0 rectal carcinoids ≤10 mm, 5-year CSS was 100% in both groups who underwent local excision and those who underwent radical surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Larger T1 rectal carcinoid tumors (11-19 mm) have significantly higher risk of lymph node metastases compared with those ≤10 mm. Survival is worse with metastatic disease. Local therapy is adequate for T1N0M0 rectal carcinoids ≤10 mm in size with excellent long-term outcomes.

An Evaluation of Factors Associated With Pathogenic PRSS1, SPINK1, CTFR, and/or CTRC Genetic Variants in Patients With Idiopathic Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated factors associated with pathogenic genetic variants in patients with idiopathic pancreatitis. METHODS: Genetic testing (PRSS1, CFTR, SPINK1, and CTRC) was performed in all eligible patients with idiopathic pancreatitis between 2010 to 2015. Patients were classified into the following groups based on a review of medical records: (1) acute recurrent idiopathic pancreatitis (ARIP) with or without underlying chronic pancreatitis; (2) idiopathic chronic pancreatitis (ICP) without a history of ARP; (3) an unexplained first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP)<35 years of age; and (4) family history of pancreatitis. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors associated with pathogenic genetic variants. RESULTS: Among 197 ARIP and/or ICP patients evaluated from 2010 to 2015, 134 underwent genetic testing. A total of 88 pathogenic genetic variants were found in 64 (47.8%) patients. Pathogenic genetic variants were identified in 58, 63, and 27% of patients with ARIP, an unexplained first episode of AP <35 years of age, and ICP without ARP, respectively. ARIP (OR: 18.12; 95% CI: 2.16-151.87; P=0.008) and an unexplained first episode of AP<35 years of age (OR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.18-5.15; P=0.017), but not ICP, were independently associated with pathogenic genetic variants in the adjusted analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Pathogenic genetic variants are most likely to be identified in patients with ARIP and an unexplained first episode of AP<35 years of age. Genetic testing in these patient populations may delineate an etiology and prevent unnecessary diagnostic testing and procedures.