Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

BACKGROUND: We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort. METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation. RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.

Brief Report: Malignancies in Adults Living With HIV in Asia.

BACKGROUND: Hematological malignancies have continued to be highly prevalent among people living with HIV (PLHIV). This study assessed the occurrence of, risk factors for, and outcomes of hematological and nonhematological malignancies in PLHIV in Asia. METHODS: Incidence of malignancy after cohort enrollment was evaluated. Factors associated with development of hematological and nonhematological malignancy were analyzed using competing risk regression and survival time using Kaplan-Meier. RESULTS: Of 7455 patients, 107 patients (1%) developed a malignancy: 34 (0.5%) hematological [0.08 per 100 person-years (/100PY)] and 73 (1%) nonhematological (0.17/100PY). Of the hematological malignancies, non-Hodgkin lymphoma was predominant (n = 26, 76%): immunoblastic (n = 6, 18%), Burkitt (n = 5, 15%), diffuse large B-cell (n = 5, 15%), and unspecified (n = 10, 30%). Others include central nervous system lymphoma (n = 7, 21%) and myelodysplastic syndrome (n = 1, 3%). Nonhematological malignancies were mostly Kaposi sarcoma (n = 12, 16%) and cervical cancer (n = 10, 14%). Risk factors for hematological malignancy included age >50 vs. ≤30 years [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 6.48, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.79 to 23.43] and being from a high-income vs. a lower-middle-income country (SHR = 3.97, 95% CI: 1.45 to 10.84). Risk was reduced with CD4 351-500 cells/µL (SHR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.74) and CD4 >500 cells/µL (SHR = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.78), compared to CD4 ≤200 cells/µL. Similar risk factors were seen for nonhematological malignancy, with prior AIDS diagnosis showing a weak association. Patients diagnosed with a hematological malignancy had shorter survival time compared to patients diagnosed with a nonhematological malignancy. CONCLUSIONS: Nonhematological malignancies were common but non-Hodgkin lymphoma was more predominant in our cohort. PLHIV from high-income countries were more likely to be diagnosed, indicating a potential underdiagnosis of cancer in low-income settings.

Changes in renal function with long-term exposure to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected adults in Asia.

PURPOSE: Renal disease is common among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, there is limited information on the incidence and risk factors associated with renal dysfunction among this population in Asia. METHODS: We used data from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database. Patients were included if they started antiretroviral therapy during or after 2003, had a serum creatinine measurement at antiretroviral therapy initiation (baseline), and had at least 2 follow-up creatinine measurements taken ≥3 months apart. Patients with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were excluded. Chronic kidney disease was defined as 2 consecutive eGFR values ≤60 mL/min/1.73 m2 taken ≥3 months apart. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify factors associated with eGFR change. Competing risk regression adjusted for study site, age and sex, and cumulative incidence plots were used to evaluate factors associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). RESULTS: Of 2547 patients eligible for this analysis, tenofovir was being used by 703 (27.6%) at baseline. Tenofovir use, high baseline eGFR, advanced HIV disease stage, and low nadir CD4 were associated with a decrease in eGFR during follow-up. Chronic kidney disease occurred at a rate of 3.4 per 1000 patient/years. Factors associated with CKD were tenofovir use, old age, low baseline eGFR, low nadir CD4, and protease inhibitor use. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to enhance renal monitoring and management capacity among at-risk groups in Asia and improve access to less nephrotoxic antiretrovirals.

Diagnostic Accuracy of the InBios Scrub Typhus Detect Enzyme-Linked Immunoassay for the Detection of IgM Antibodies in Northern Thailand.

In this study, we examined the diagnostic accuracy of the InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and determined the optimal diagnostic optical density (OD) cutoffs for screening and diagnostic applications based on prospectively collected, characterized samples from undifferentiated febrile illness patients in northern Thailand. Direct comparisons with the serological gold standard, indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), revealed strong statistical correlation of ELISA OD values and IFA IgM titers. Determination of the optimal ELISA cutoff for seroepidemiology or screening purposes compared to the corresponding IFA reciprocal titer of 400 as previously described for Thailand was 0.60 OD, which corresponded to a sensitivity (Sn) of 84% and a specificity (Sp) of 98%. The diagnostic performance against the improved and more-stringent scrub typhus infection criteria (STIC), correcting for low false-positive IFA titers, resulted in an Sn of 93% and an Sp of 91% at an ELISA cutoff of 0.5 OD. This diagnostic ELISA cutoff corresponds to IFA reciprocal titers of 1,600 to 3,200, which greatly reduces the false-positive rates associated with low-positive IFA titers. These data are in congruence with the recently improved serodiagnostic positivity criteria using the Bayesian latent class modeling approach. In summary, the InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM ELISA is affordable and easy-to-use, with adequate diagnostic accuracy for screening and diagnostic purposes, and should be considered an improved alternative to the gold standard IFA for acute diagnosis. For broader application, regional cutoff validation and antigenic composition for consistent diagnostic accuracy should be considered.

Trends in first-line antiretroviral therapy in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. METHODS: Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥ 6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. RESULTS: Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003-2006 (n = 1419), 2007-2010 (n = 2690) and 2011-2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7-23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003-2006, 15.8 [14.9-16.8] in 2007-2010, and 11.6 [9.4-14.2] in 2011-2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33-0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011-2013 versus 2003-2006), older age (1.56 [1.19-2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥ 50 years versus <30 years), female sex (1.29 [1.11-1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06-1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28-20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). CONCLUSIONS: The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and prescriber preferences over the past decade. These changes have contributed to a declining rate of treatment modification due to adverse event, but not to reductions in treatment failure.

A randomized comparison of second-line lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy versus tenofovir/lamivudine/lopinavir/ritonavir in patients failing NNRTI regimens: the HIV STAR study.

BACKGROUND: Data informing the use of boosted protease inhibitor (PI) monotherapy as second-line treatment are limited. There are also no randomized trials addressing treatment options after failing first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-regimens. METHODS: HIV-infected subjects ≥18 years, with HIV RNA≥1,000 copies/ml while using NNRTI plus 2 NRTIs, and naive to PIs were randomized to lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) 400/100 mg twice daily monotherapy (mono-LPV/r) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) once daily plus lamivudine (3TC) twice daily plus LPV/r 400/100 mg twice daily (TDF/3TC/LPV/r) at nine sites in Thailand. The primary outcome was time-weighted area under curve (TWAUC) change in HIV RNA over 48 weeks. The a priori hypothesis was that the mono-LPV/r arm would be considered non-inferior if the upper 95% confidence limit in TWAUC mean difference was ≤0.5 log(10) copies/ml. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat (ITT) population comprised 195 patients (mono-LPV/r n=98 and TDF/3TC/LPV/r n=97): male 58%, baseline mean (sd) age of 38 (7) years, CD4(+) T-cell count of 204 (135) cells/mm(3) and HIV RNA of 4.1 (0.6) log(10) copies/ml. The majority had HIV-1 recombinant CRF01_AE infection, and thymidine analogue mutation (TAM)-2 was 3× more common than TAM-1. At 48 weeks, the difference in TWAUC HIV RNA between arms was 0.15 (95% CI -0.04, 0.33) log(10) copies/ml, consistent with our definition of non-inferiority. However, the proportion with HIV RNA<50 copies/ml was significantly lower in the mono-LPV/r arm: 61% versus 83% (ITT, P<0.01). Baseline HIV RNA≥5 log(10) copies/ml (P<0.001) and mono-LPV/r use (P=0.003) were predictors of virological failure. Baseline genotypic sensitivity scores ≥2 and TAM-2 were associated with better virological control in subjects treated with the TDF-containing regimen. CONCLUSIONS: In PI-naive patients failing NNRTI-based first-line HAART, mono-LPV/r had a significantly lower proportion of patients with HIV RNA<50 copies/ml compared to the TDF/3TC/LPV/r treatment. Thus, mono-LPV/r should not be recommended as a second-line option.