A discrete choice experiment to quantify the influence of trial features on the decision to participate in cystic fibrosis trials.

BACKGROUND: Patient-centred trial design optimises recruitment and retention, reduces trial failure rates and increases the diversity of trial cohorts. This allows safe and effective treatments to reach clinic more quickly. To achieve this, patients' views must be incorporated into trial design. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was used to quantify preferences of pwCF for trials features; medicine type, trial location, stipend, washout, drug access on trial completion and trial design. Respondents were presented pairs of hypothetical trial scenarios with different level combinations assigned through experimental design. Respondents were asked to pick their preferred option or decline both. The cross-sectional data were explored using a Random Parameters Logit model. RESULTS: We received 207 eligible responses between Oct2020-Jan2021. The strongest influence on the decision to participate was trial location; pwCF favour participation at their usual clinical centre. Greater travel distances made respondents less willing to participate. Post-trial drug access ranked second. pwCF would rather participate in modulator trials than trials of other drugs. In general, pwCF did not favour a washout period, but were more prepared to washout non-modulators than modulators. Stipend provision was not ranked highly, but higher stipends increased intention to participate. Trial design (placebo vs open-label) had minimal influence on the decision to participate. There are complex interactions between placebos and washouts. CONCLUSIONS: We used quantitative methods to systematically elicit preferences of pwCF for clinical trials' features. We explore the relevance of our findings to trial design and delivery in the current CF trials landscape.

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: an analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries.

AIMS: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 553 818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors [sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (BP), and body mass index (BMI)] and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the UK were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (P = 0.043 for overall difference), and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (P = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol [7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3-10%] and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

All classic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. The differences in the associations of CVD risk factors with overt CVD between regions of Europe are generally small. Minor temporal hazard decreases were observed for non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, while a minor hazard increase was observed for body mass index.

How Do Adolescent Smoking Prevention Interventions Work in Different Contextual Settings? A Qualitative Comparative Study Between the UK and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent smoking is associated with significant health and social risks. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of interventions based on behavior change theories in preventing adolescent smoking uptake. However, evidence from the theory-based perspective of evaluation is limited, especially for how such complex interventions work, and how they work when implemented in different contextual settings. METHOD: A comparative qualitative analysis was conducted to explore various influences on behavior change among participants taking part in two smoking prevention interventions in Northern Ireland and Bogotá. Twenty-seven focus groups were conducted in 12 schools (6 in Northern Ireland and 6 in Bogota, n = 195 pupils participated; aged 11-15 years). The Theoretical Domains Framework guided a content analysis of the data. RESULTS: We found similarities across settings in terms of knowledge, skills, and beliefs related to smoking or vaping behavior change, as well as differences in contextual resources and social influence. Different environmental resources included availability to purchase tobacco products in the neighborhoods and previous information about tobacco risk. Participants in both interventions perceived behavioral change outcomes related to personal skills and intention to not smoke or vape. CONCLUSION: These findings have highlighted how both individual factors and contextual resources influence behavior change for smoking prevention in practice. Local contextual factors and social influences affecting pupils should be taken into account in the implementation and evaluation of health behavior change interventions. In particular, this study supports using social and contextual influence strategies in interventions to reduce the onset of adolescent smoking and vaping.

Identifying the severity of diabetic retinopathy by visual function measures using both traditional statistical methods and interpretable machine learning: a cross-sectional study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the extent to which diabetic retinopathy severity stage may be classified using machine learning (ML) and commonly used clinical measures of visual function together with age and sex. METHODS: We measured the visual function of 1901 eyes from 1032 participants in the Northern Ireland Sensory Ageing Study, deriving 12 variables from nine visual function tests. Missing values were imputed using chained equations. Participants were divided into four groups using clinical measures and grading of ophthalmic images: no diabetes mellitus (no DM), diabetes but no diabetic retinopathy (DM no DR), diabetic retinopathy without diabetic macular oedema (DR no DMO) and diabetic retinopathy with DMO (DR with DMO). Ensemble ML models were fitted to classify group membership for three tasks, distinguishing (A) the DM no DR group from the no DM group; (B) the DR no DMO group from the DM no DR group; and (C) the DR with DMO group from the DR no DMO group. More conventional multiple logistic regression models were also fitted for comparison. An interpretable ML technique was used to rank the contribution of visual function variables to predictions and to disentangle associations between diabetic eye disease and visual function from artefacts of the data collection process. RESULTS: The performance of the ensemble ML models was good across all three classification tasks, with accuracies of 0.92, 1.00 and 0.84, respectively, for tasks A-C, substantially exceeding the accuracies for logistic regression (0.84, 0.61 and 0.80, respectively). Reading index was highly ranked for tasks A and B, whereas near visual acuity and Moorfields chart acuity were important for task C. Microperimetry variables ranked highly for all three tasks, but this was partly due to a data artefact (a large proportion of missing values). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Ensemble ML models predicted status of diabetic eye disease with high accuracy using just age, sex and measures of visual function. Interpretable ML methods enabled us to identify profiles of visual function associated with different stages of diabetic eye disease, and to disentangle associations from artefacts of the data collection process. Together, these two techniques have great potential for developing prediction models using untidy real-world clinical data.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Exploring the mechanistic pathways of how social network influences social norms in adolescent smoking prevention interventions.

We know little about how smoking prevention interventions might leverage social network structures to enhance protective social norms. In this study we combined statistical and network science methods to explore how social networks influence social norms related to adolescent smoking in school-specific settings in Northern Ireland and Colombia. Pupils (12-15 years old) participated in two smoking prevention interventions in both countries (n = 1344). A Latent Transition Analysis identified three groups characterized by descriptive and injunctive norms towards smoking. We employed a Separable Temporal Random Graph Model to analyze homophily in social norms and conducted a descriptive analysis of the changes in the students' and their friends' social norms over time to account for social influence. The results showed that students were more likely to be friends with others who had social norms against smoking. However, students with social norms favorable towards smoking had more friends with similar views than the students with perceived norms against smoking, underlining the importance of network thresholds. Our results support the notation that the ASSIST intervention takes advantage of friendship networks to leverage greater change in the students' smoking social norms than the Dead Cool intervention, reiterating that social norms are subject to social influence.

Implementation of a home-based colorectal cancer screening intervention in Malaysia (CRC-SIM).

INTRODUCTION: The Colorectal Cancer Screening Intervention for Malaysia (CRC-SIM) was a CRC study of home-based testing designed to improve low screening uptake using the immunochemical fecal occult blood test (iFOBT) in Malaysia. METHODS: This quasi-experimental study was informed by the Implementation Research Logic Model and evaluated with the RE-AIM framework. Trained data collectors recruited by phone, randomly selected, asymptomatic adults aged 50-75 years from Segamat District, who previously completed a health census form for the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO). Participants were posted an iFOBT kit and asked to return a photo of the completed test for screening by health care professionals. A regression analysis of evaluation data was conducted to identify which variables were associated with the outcome indicators of 'study participation' and 'iFOBT completion' and the CRC-SIM was evaluated in terms of its appropriateness, feasibility and acceptability. RESULTS: Seven hundred forty-seven eligible adults (52%) agreed to participate in this study and received an iFOBT kit. Participation was significantly lower amongst Chinese Malaysians (adjusted OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 - 0.59, p<0.001) compared to Malays and amongst participants from the rural sub-district (Gemereh) (adjusted OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54 - 0.92, p=0.011) compared to the urban sub-district (Sungai Segamat). Less than half of participants (42%, n=311/747) completed the iFOBT. Test-kit completion was significantly higher amongst Chinese Malaysians (adjusted OR 3.15, 95% CI 2.11 - 4.69, p<0.001) and lower amongst participants with a monthly household income ≥RM 4,850 (adjusted OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.39 - 0.87, p=0.009) compared to participants with a lower household income. The main reported reason for non-participation was 'not interested' (58.6%) and main implementation challenges related to invalid photographs from participants and engaging iFOBT positive participants in further clinic consultations and procedures. CONCLUSION: Home-testing for CRC (test completion) appeared to be acceptable to only around one-fifth of the target population in Malaysia. However, mindful of the challenging circumstances surrounding the pandemic, the CRC-SIM merits consideration by public health planners as a method of increasing screening in Malaysia, and other low- and middle-income countries.

Implementation of a colorectal cancer screening intervention in Malaysia (CRC-SIM) in the context of a pandemic: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cancer in Malaysia and cases are often detected late. Improving screening uptake is key in down-staging cancer and improving patient outcomes. The aim of this study is to develop, implement and evaluate an intervention to improve CRC screening uptake in Malaysia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The evaluation will include ascertaining the budgetary impact of implementing and delivering the intervention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The implementation research logic model guided the development of the study and implementation outcome measures were informed by the 'Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance' (RE-AIM) framework. This CRC screening intervention for Malaysia uses home-testing and digital, small media, communication to improve CRC screening uptake. A sample of 780 people aged 50-75 years living in Segamat district, Malaysia, will be selected randomly from the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO) database. Participants will receive a screening pack as well as a WhatsApp video of a local doctor to undertake a stool test safely and to send a photo of the test result to a confidential mobile number. SEACO staff will inform participants of their result. Quantitative data about follow-up clinic attendance, subsequent hospital tests and outcomes will be collected. Logistic regression will be used to investigate variables that influence screening completion and we will conduct a budget impact-analysis of the intervention and its implementation. Qualitative data about intervention implementation from the perspective of participants and stakeholders will be analysed thematically. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted by Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee (MUHREC ID: 29107) and the Medical Review and Ethics Committee (Reference: 21-02045-O7G(2)). Results will be disseminated through publications, conferences and community engagement activities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: National Medical Research Register Malaysia: 21-02045-O7G(2).

Effect of financial voucher incentives provided with UK stop smoking services on the cessation of smoking in pregnant women (CPIT III): pragmatic, multicentre, single blinded, phase 3, randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine effectiveness, cost effectiveness, generalisability, and acceptability of financial incentives for smoking cessation during pregnancy in addition to variously organised UK stop smoking services. DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicentre, single blinded, phase 3, randomised controlled trial (Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial phase 3 (CPIT III)). SETTING: Seven UK stop smoking services provided in primary and secondary care facilities in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England. PARTICIPANTS: 944 pregnant women (age ≥16 years) who self-reported as being smokers (at least one cigarette in the past week) when asked at first maternity visit, less than 24 weeks' gestation, and notified to the trial team by routine stop smoking services. INTERVENTIONS: Participants in the control group were offered the standard stop smoking services, which includes the offer of counselling by specially trained workers using withdrawal orientated therapy and the offer of free nicotine replacement therapy. The intervention was the offer of usual support from the stop smoking services and the addition of up to £400 ($440; €455) of LoveToShop financial voucher incentives for engaging with current stop smoking services or to stop smoking, or both, during pregnancy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported smoking cessation in late pregnancy (between 34 and 38 weeks' gestation) corroborated by saliva cotinine (and anabasine if using nicotine replacement products). Results were adjusted for age, smoking years, index of multiple deprivation, Fagerström score, before or after covid, and recruitment site. Secondary outcomes included point and continuous abstinence six months after expected date of delivery, engagement with stop smoking services, biochemically validated abstinence from smoking at four weeks after stop smoking date, birth weight of baby, cost effectiveness, generalisability documenting formats of stop smoking services, and acceptability to pregnant women and their carers. RESULTS: From 9 January 2018 to 4 April 2020, of 4032 women screened by stop smoking services, 944 people were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=471) or the control group (n=470). Three people asked for their data to be removed. 126 (27%) of 471 participants stopped smoking from the intervention group and 58 (12%) of 470 from the control group (adjusted odds ratio 2.78 (1.94 to 3.97) P<0.001). Serious adverse events were miscarriages and other expected pregnancy events requiring hospital admission; all serious adverse events were unrelated to the intervention. Most people who stopped smoking from both groups relapsed after their baby was born. CONCLUSIONS: The offer of up to £400 of financial voucher incentives to stop smoking during pregnancy as an addition to current UK stop smoking services is highly effective. This bolt-on intervention supports new guidance from the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, which includes the addition of financial incentives to support pregnant women to stop smoking. Continuing incentives to 12 months after birth is being examined to prevent relapse. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN15236311.

Determinants of Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK).

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines vary for reasons that remain poorly understood. A range of sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional factors could explain these differences. To investigate this hypothesis, we tested for presence of combined IgG, IgA and IgM (IgGAM) anti-Spike antibodies before and after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (ChAdOx1, AstraZeneca) or BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in UK adults participating in a population-based longitudinal study who received their first dose of vaccine between December 2020 and July 2021. Information on sixty-six potential sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional determinants of serological response to vaccination was captured using serial online questionnaires. We used logistic regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between independent variables and risk of seronegativity following two vaccine doses. Additionally, percentage differences in antibody titres between groups were estimated in the sub-set of participants who were seropositive post-vaccination using linear regression. Anti-spike antibodies were undetectable in 378/9101 (4.2%) participants at a median of 8.6 weeks post second vaccine dose. Increased risk of post-vaccination seronegativity associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.6, 95% CI 4.2−10.4), shorter interval between vaccine doses (aOR 1.6, 1.2−2.1, 6−10 vs. >10 weeks), poor vs. excellent general health (aOR 3.1, 1.4−7.0), immunodeficiency (aOR 6.5, 2.5−16.6) and immunosuppressant use (aOR 3.7, 2.4−5.7). Odds of seronegativity were lower for participants who were SARS-CoV-2 seropositive pre-vaccination (aOR 0.2, 0.0−0.6) and for those taking vitamin D supplements (aOR 0.7, 0.5−0.9). Serologic responses to vaccination did not associate with time of day of vaccine administration, lifestyle factors including tobacco smoking, alcohol intake and sleep, or use of anti-pyretics for management of reactive symptoms after vaccination. In a sub-set of 8727 individuals who were seropositive post-vaccination, lower antibody titres associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (43.4% lower, 41.8−44.8), longer duration between second vaccine dose and sampling (12.7% lower, 8.2−16.9, for 9−16 weeks vs. 2−4 weeks), shorter interval between vaccine doses (10.4% lower, 3.7−16.7, for <6 weeks vs. >10 weeks), receiving a second vaccine dose in October−December vs. April−June (47.7% lower, 11.4−69.1), older age (3.3% lower per 10-year increase in age, 2.1−4.6), and hypertension (4.1% lower, 1.1−6.9). Higher antibody titres associated with South Asian ethnicity (16.2% higher, 3.0−31.1, vs. White ethnicity) or Mixed/Multiple/Other ethnicity (11.8% higher, 2.9−21.6, vs. White ethnicity), higher body mass index (BMI; 2.9% higher, 0.2−5.7, for BMI 25−30 vs. <25 kg/m2) and pre-vaccination seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 (105.1% higher, 94.1−116.6, for those seropositive and experienced COVID-19 symptoms vs. those who were seronegative pre-vaccination). In conclusion, we identify multiple determinants of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, many of which are modifiable.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of text messages with or without endowment incentives for weight management in men with obesity (Game of Stones): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Obesity increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, mobility problems and some cancers, and its prevalence is rising. Men engage less than women in existing weight loss interventions. Game of Stones builds on a successful feasibility study and aims to find out if automated text messages with or without endowment incentives are effective and cost-effective for weight loss at 12 months compared to a waiting list comparator arm in men with obesity. METHODS: A 3-arm, parallel group, assessor-blind superiority randomised controlled trial with process evaluation will recruit 585 adult men with body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or more living in and around three UK centres (Belfast, Bristol, Glasgow), purposively targeting disadvantaged areas. Intervention groups: (i) automated, theory-informed text messages daily for 12 months plus endowment incentives linked to verified weight loss targets at 3, 6 and 12 months; (ii) the same text messages and weight loss assessment protocol; (iii) comparator group: 12 month waiting list, then text messages for 3 months. The primary outcome is percentage weight change at 12 months from baseline. Secondary outcomes at 12 months are as follows: quality of life, wellbeing, mental health, weight stigma, behaviours, satisfaction and confidence. Follow-up includes weight at 24 months. A health economic evaluation will measure cost-effectiveness over the trial and over modelled lifetime: including health service resource-use and quality-adjusted life years. The cost-utility analysis will report incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years gained. Participant and service provider perspectives will be explored via telephone interviews, and exploratory mixed methods process evaluation analyses will focus on mental health, multiple long-term conditions, health inequalities and implementation strategies. DISCUSSION: The trial will report whether text messages (with and without cash incentives) can help men to lose weight over 1 year and maintain this for another year compared to a comparator group; the costs and benefits to the health service; and men's experiences of the interventions. Process analyses with public involvement and service commissioner input will ensure that this open-source digital self-care intervention could be sustainable and scalable by a range of NHS or public services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 91974895 . Registered on 14/04/2021.

Colorectal Cancer Screening within Colonoscopy Capacity Constraints: Can FIT-Based Programs Save More Lives by Trading off More Sensitive Test Cutoffs against Longer Screening Intervals?

Introduction. Colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention programs using fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in screening rely on colonoscopy for secondary and surveillance testing. Colonoscopy capacity is an important constraint. Some European programs lack sufficient capacity to provide optimal screening intensity regarding age ranges, intervals, and FIT cutoffs. It is currently unclear how to optimize programs within colonoscopy capacity constraints. Design. Microsimulation modeling, using the MISCAN-Colon model, was used to determine if more effective CRC screening programs can be identified within constrained colonoscopy capacity. A total of 525 strategies were modeled and compared, varying 3 key screening parameters: screening intervals, age ranges, and FIT cutoffs, including previously unevaluated 4- and 5-year screening intervals (using a lifetime horizon and 100% adherence). Results were compared with the policy decisions taken in Ireland to provide CRC screening within available colonoscopy capacity. Outcomes estimated net costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and required colonoscopies. The optimal strategies within finite colonoscopy capacity constraints were identified. Results. Combining a reduced FIT cutoff of 10 µg Hb/g, an extended screening interval of 4 y and an age range of 60-72 y requires 6% fewer colonoscopies, reduces net costs by 23% while preventing 15% more CRC deaths and saving 16% more QALYs relative to a strategy (FIT 40 µg Hb/g, 2-yearly, 60-70 year) approximating current policy. Conclusion. Previously overlooked longer screening intervals may optimize cancer prevention with finite colonoscopy capacity constraints. Changes could save lives, reduce costs, and relieve colonoscopy capacity pressures. These findings are relevant to CRC screening programs across Europe that employ FIT-based testing, which face colonoscopy capacity constraints.

Risk Factors, Subsequent Disease Onset, and Prognostic Impact of Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. Methods and Results In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all-cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population-based cohorts. During a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03-2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. Conclusions We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.

Simple cardiovascular risk stratification by replacing total serum cholesterol with anthropometric measures: The MORGAM prospective cohort project.

To assess whether anthropometric measures (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], and estimated fat mass [EFM]) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and to assess their added prognostic value compared with serum total-cholesterol. The study population comprised 109,509 individuals (53% men) from the MORGAM-Project, aged 19-97 years, without established cardiovascular disease, and not on antihypertensive treatment. While BMI was reported in all, WHR and EFM were reported in âˆ¼52,000 participants. Prognostic importance of anthropometric measurements and total-cholesterol was evaluated using adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression, logistic regression, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUCROC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The primary endpoint was MACE, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from coronary heart disease. Age interacted significantly with anthropometric measures and total-cholesterol on MACE (P ≤ 0.003), and therefore age-stratified analyses (<50 versus ≥ 50 years) were performed. BMI, WHR, EFM, and total-cholesterol were independently associated with MACE (P ≤ 0.003) and resulted in significantly positive NRI when added to age, sex, smoking status, and systolic blood pressure. Only total-cholesterol increased discrimination ability (AUCROC difference; P < 0.001). In subjects < 50 years, the prediction model with total-cholesterol was superior to the model including BMI, but not superior to models containing WHR or EFM, while in those ≥ 50 years, the model with total-cholesterol was superior to all models containing anthropometric variables, whether assessed individually or combined. We found a potential role for replacing total-cholesterol with anthropometric measures for MACE-prediction among individuals < 50 years when laboratory measurements are unavailable, but not among those ≥ 50 years.

Implementation of personalised medicine policies in mental healthcare: results from a stated preference study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Public support for the implementation of personalised medicine policies (PMPs) within routine care is important owing to the high financial costs involved and the potential for redirection of resources from other services. AIMS: We aimed to determine the attributes of a PMP most likely to elicit public support for implementation. We also aimed to determine whether such support differed between a depression PMP and one for cystic fibrosis. METHOD: In a discrete-choice experiment, paired vignettes illustrating both the current model of care (CMoC) and a hypothetical PMP for either depression or cystic fibrosis were presented to a representative sample of the UK public (n = 2804). Each vignette integrated varying attributes, including anticipated therapeutic benefit over CMoC, and the annual cost to the taxpayer. Respondents were invited to express their preference for either the PMP or CMoC within each pair. RESULTS: The financial cost was the most important attribute influencing public support for PMPs. Respondents favoured PMP implementation where it benefited a higher proportion of patients or was anticipated to be more effective than CMoC. A reduction in services for non-eligible patients reduced the likelihood of support for PMPs. Respondents were more willing to fund PMPs for cystic fibrosis than for depression. CONCLUSIONS: Cost is a significant factor in the public's support for PMPs, but essential caveats, such as protection for services available to PMP-ineligible patients, may also apply. Further research should explore the factors contributing to condition-specific nuances in public support for PMPs.

Alcohol intake and total mortality in 142 960 individuals from the MORGAM Project: a population-based study.

AIM: To test the association of alcohol consumption with total and cause-specific mortality risk. DESIGN: Prospective observational multi-centre population-based study. SETTING: Sixteen cohorts (15 from Europe) in the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 142 960 individuals (mean age 50 ± 13 years, 53.9% men). MEASUREMENTS: Average alcohol intake by food frequency questionnaire, total and cause-specific mortality. FINDINGS: In comparison with life-time abstainers, consumption of alcohol less than 10 g/day was associated with an average 11% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 7-14%] reduction in the risk of total mortality, while intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 13% (95% CI = 7-20%) increase in the risk of total mortality. Comparable findings were observed for cardiovascular (CV) deaths. With regard to cancer, drinking up to 10 g/day was not associated with either mortality risk reduction or increase, while alcohol intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 22% (95% CI = 10-35%) increased risk of mortality. The association of alcohol with fatal outcomes was similar in men and women, differed somewhat between countries and was more apparent in individuals preferring wine, suggesting that benefits may not be due to ethanol but other ingredients. Mediation analysis showed that high-density lipoprotein cholesterol explained 2.9 and 18.7% of the association between low alcohol intake and total as well as CV mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with life-time abstainers, consuming less than one drink per day (nadir at 5 g/day) was associated with a reduced risk of total, cardiovascular and other causes mortality, except cancer. Intake of more than two drinks per day was associated with an increased risk of total, cardiovascular and especially cancer mortality.

Surgical under-treatment of older adult patients with cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Older patients with cancer often have lower surgery rates and survival than younger patients, but this may reflect surgical contraindications of advanced disease, comorbidities, and frailty - and not necessarily under-treatment. OBJECTIVES: This review aims to describe variations in surgery rates and observed or net survival among younger (<75) and older (≥75) patients with breast, lung and colorectal cancer, while taking account of pre-existing health factors, in order to understand how under-treatment is defined and estimated in the literature. METHOD: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and PubMed databases were searched for studies reporting surgery rates and observed or net survival among younger and older patients with breast, lung, and colorectal cancer. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale, and random effects meta-analyses were used to combine study results. The I-squared statistic and subgroup analyses were used to assess heterogeneity. RESULTS: Thirty relatively high-quality studies of patients with breast (230,200; 71.9%), lung (77,573; 24.2%), and colorectal (12,407; 3.9%) cancers were identified. Compared to younger patients, older patients were less likely to receive surgical treatment for 1) breast cancer after adjusting for comorbidity, performance status (PS), functional status and patient choice, 2) lung cancer after accounting for stage, comorbidity, PS, and 3) colorectal cancer after adjusting for stage, comorbidity, and gender. The pooled unadjusted analyses showed lower surgery receipt in older patients with breast (odds ratio [OR] 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-0.78), lung (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.75), and colorectal (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.51-0.68) cancer. In separate analyses, older patients with breast, lung and colorectal cancer had lower observed and net survival, compared to younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Lower surgery rates in older patients may contribute to their poorer survival compared to younger patients. Future research quantifying under-treatment should include necessary clinical factors, patient choice, patient's quality of life and a statistically-robust approach, which will demonstrate how much of the survival deficit in older patients is due to their receiving lower surgery rates.

Socio-environmental and psychosocial predictors of smoking susceptibility among adolescents with contrasting socio-cultural characteristics: a comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite a steady decline in adolescent smoking globally, it remains a prevalent risk factor for non-communicable disease. Previous research points to differences in socio-environmental and psychosocial risk factors for smoking and how they vary across different settings with disparate social and cultural characteristics. As a result, smoking rates have remained disproportionately higher in some settings while decreasing in others. This study explored the socio-environmental and psychosocial risk factors for smoking susceptibility in a high-income and upper-middle income setting. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were obtained from 1,573 male and female adolescents aged 11-15 years who completed self-administered questionnaires in schools in Northern Ireland and Bogotá, Colombia. Using logistic regression analysis, we examined how socio-environmental and psychosocial predictors of smoking susceptibility compared across the two countries. RESULTS: In Northern Ireland, reduced odds of smoking susceptibility were significantly associated with less family smoking (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.41-1.00); having access to information about smoking in school (OR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96); negative attitudes towards smoking (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.23-0.51); higher levels of openness (OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.50-0.69); and higher levels of self-reported wellbeing (OR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.44-0.74). Increased odds of smoking susceptibility were associated with reporting less smoking of a mother (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.06-1.76); higher levels of extraversion (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04-1.90); and receiving pocket money (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.06-1.37). In Bogotá, reduced odds of smoking susceptibility were significantly associated with reporting less smoking among friends (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.76-0.98); higher levels of self-efficacy (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.40-0.83); greater perceived behavioural control to quit smoking (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56-0.90); and lower levels of truancy (OR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.52-0.92). In Bogotá, no factors were associated with increased odds of smoking susceptibility in the final model. CONCLUSIONS: The findings illustrate that there were differences in predictors of adolescent smoking susceptibility across the two settings. By using a comparative approach we demonstrate that smoking interventions and policies must be sensitive to the cultural and normative context within which they are implemented.

The implementation of colorectal cancer screening interventions in low-and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced increasing rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the last decade and lower 5-year survival rates compared to high-income countries (HICs) where the implementation of screening and treatment services have advanced. This review scoped and mapped the literature regarding the content, implementation and uptake of CRC screening interventions as well as opportunities and challenges for the implementation of CRC screening interventions in LMICs. METHODS: We systematically followed a five-step scoping review framework to identify and review relevant literature about CRC screening in LMICs, written in the English language before February 2020. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar for studies targeting the general, asymptomatic, at-risk adult population. The TIDieR tool and an implementation checklist were used to extract data from empirical studies; and we extracted data-informed insights from policy reviews and commentaries. RESULTS: CRC screening interventions (n = 24 studies) were implemented in nine middle-income countries. Population-based screening programmes (n = 11) as well as small-scale screening interventions (n = 13) utilised various recruitment strategies. Interventions that recruited participants face-to-face (alone or in combination with other recruitment strategies) (10/15), opportunistic clinic-based screening interventions (5/6) and educational interventions combined with screening (3/4), seemed to be the strategies that consistently achieved an uptake of > 65% in LMICs. FOBT/FIT and colonoscopy uptake ranged between 14 and 100%. The most commonly reported implementation indicator was 'uptake/reach'. There was an absence of detail regarding implementation indicators and there is a need to improve reporting practice in order to disseminate learning about how to implement programmes. CONCLUSION: Opportunities and challenges for the implementation of CRC screening programmes were related to the reporting of CRC cases and screening, cost-effective screening methods, knowledge about CRC and screening, staff resources and training, infrastructure of the health care system, financial resources, public health campaigns, policy commitment from governments, patient navigation, planning of screening programmes and quality assurance.

Investigating the physical activity, health, wellbeing, social and environmental effects of a new urban greenway: a natural experiment (the PARC study).

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the health benefits of urban green space tends to stem from small, short-term quasi-experimental or cross-sectional observational research, whilst evidence from intervention studies is sparse. The development of an urban greenway (9 km running along 3 rivers) in Northern Ireland provided the opportunity to conduct a natural experiment. This study investigated the public health impact of the urban greenway on a range of physical activity, health, wellbeing, social, and perceptions of the environment outcomes. METHODS: A repeated cross-sectional household survey of adult residents (aged ≥16 years) who lived ≤1-mile radius of the greenway (intervention sample) and > 1-mile radius of the greenway (control sample) was conducted pre (2010/2011) and 6-months post implementation (2016/2017). We assessed changes in outcomes pre- and post-intervention follow-up including physical activity behaviour (primary outcome measure: Global Physical Activity Questionnaire), quality of life, mental wellbeing, social capital and perceptions of the built environment. Linear regression was used to calculate the mean difference between post-intervention and baseline measures adjusting for age, season, education, car ownership and deprivation. Multi-level models were fitted using a random intercept at the super output area (smallest geographical unit) to account for clustering within areas. The analyses were stratified by distance from the greenway and deprivation. We assessed change in the social patterning of outcomes over time using an ordered logit to make model-based outcome predictions across strata. RESULTS: The mean ages of intervention samples were 50.3 (SD 18.9) years at baseline (n = 1037) and 51.7 (SD 19.1) years at follow-up (n = 968). Post-intervention, 65% (adjusted OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.00) of residents who lived closest to the greenway (i.e., ≤400 m) and 60% (adjusted OR, 0.64 95% CI 0.41 to 0.99) who lived furthest from the greenway (i.e.,≥1200 m) met the physical activity guidelines - 68% of the intervention sample met the physical activity guidelines before the intervention. Residents in the most deprived quintiles had a similar reduction in physical activity behaviour as residents in less deprived quintiles. Quality of life at follow-up compared to baseline declined and this decline was significantly less than in the control area (adjusted differences in mean EQ5D: -11.0 (95% CI - 14.5 to - 7.4); - 30.5 (95% CI - 37.9 to - 23.2). Significant change in mental wellbeing was not observed despite improvements in some indicators of social capital. Positive perceptions of the local environment in relation to its attractiveness, traffic and safety increased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings illustrate the major challenge of evaluating complex urban interventions and the difficulty of capturing and measuring the network of potential variables that influence or hinder meaningful outcomes. The results indicate at this stage no intervention effect for improvements in population-level physical activity behaviour or mental wellbeing. However, they show some modest improvements for secondary outcomes including positive perceptions of the environment and social capital constructs. The public health impact of urban greenways may take a longer period of time to be realised and there is a need to improve evaluation methodology that captures the complex systems nature of urban regeneration.