Paraesophageal hernia recurrence following repair: making the case for reoperative surgery in a propensity-matched cohort.

BACKGROUND: Paraesophageal hernia repairs (PEHRs) have high rates of radiographic recurrence, with some patients requiring repeat operation. This study characterizes patients who underwent PEHR to identify the factors associated with postoperative symptom improvement and radiographic recurrence. We furthermore use propensity score matching to compare patients undergoing initial and reoperative PEHR to identify the factors predictive of recurrence or need for reoperation. METHODS: After IRB approval, patients who underwent PEHR at a tertiary care center between January 2018 and December 2022 were identified. Patient characteristics, preoperative imaging, operative findings, and postoperative outcomes were recorded. A computational generalization of inverse propensity score weight was then used to construct populations of initial and redo PEHR patients with similar covariate distributions. RESULTS: A total of 244 patients underwent PEHR (78.7% female, mean age 65.4 ± 12.3 years). Most repairs were performed with crural closure (81.4%) and fundoplication (71.7%) with 14.2% utilizing mesh. Postoperatively, 76.5% of patients had subjective symptom improvement and of 157 patients with postoperative imaging, 52.9% had evidence of radiographic recurrence at a mean follow-up of 10.4 ± 13.6 months. Only 4.9% of patients required a redo operation. Hernia type, crural closure, fundoplication, and mesh usage were not predictors of radiographic recurrence or symptom improvement (P > 0.05). Propensity weight score analysis of 50 redo PEHRs compared to a matched cohort of 194 initial operations revealed lower rates of postoperative symptom improvement (P < 0.05) but no differences in need for revision, complication rates, ED visits, or readmissions. CONCLUSIONS: Most PEHR patients have symptomatic improvement with minimal complications and reoperations despite frequent radiographic recurrence. Hernia type, crural closure, fundoplication, and mesh usage were not significantly associated with recurrence or symptom improvement. Compared to initial PEHR, reoperative PEHRs had lower rates of symptom improvement but similar rates of recurrence, complications, and need for reoperation.

Costs of Care for Operative and Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed operatively or nonoperatively, with outcomes that vary by diagnosis. We hypothesized that operative management would lead to higher in-hospital costs but to cost savings over time. BACKGROUND: EGS conditions account for $28 billion in health care costs in the United States annually. Compared with scheduled surgery, patients who undergo emergency surgery are at increased risk of complications, readmissions, and death, with accompanying costs of care that are up to 50% higher than elective surgery. Our prior work demonstrated that operative management had variable impacts on clinical outcomes depending on the EGS condition. METHODS: This was a nationwide, retrospective study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data. We included patients 65.5 years of age or older with a principal diagnosis for an EGS condition 7/1/2015-6/30/2018. EGS conditions were categorized as: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB), intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal. We used near-far matching with a preference-based instrumental variable to adjust for confounding and selection bias. Outcomes included Medicare payments for the index hospitalization and at 30, 90, and 180 days. RESULTS: Of 507,677 patients, 30.6% received an operation. For HPB conditions, costs for operative management were initially higher but became equivalent at 90 and 180 days. For all others, operative management was associated with higher inpatient costs, which persisted, though narrowed, over time. Out-of-pocket costs were nearly equivalent for operative and nonoperative management. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with nonoperative management, costs were higher or equivalent for operative management of EGS conditions through 180 days, which could impact decision-making for clinicians, patients, and health systems in situations where clinical outcomes are similar.

An acute care surgeon's dilemma: Operative vs. non-operative management of emergency general surgery conditions in patients with recent colorectal cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: This comparative effectiveness study examined outcomes of operative vs. non-operative management for emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions in patients with recent cancer treatment (RT). METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries with a history of colorectal cancer hospitalized for an EGS condition (2016-2018) were identified. RT was defined as chemotherapy/radiation within 3 months prior to admission. Instrumental variable analysis assessed the impact of management on mortality and readmissions among survivors (30d, 60d, and 90d), for patients in whom there was clinical equipoise regarding optimal management strategy. RESULTS: Of 26,097 patients, 13% had undergone RT. In both the RT and non-RT groups, the optimal management strategy was uncertain in 14%. Operative management conferred increased risk of mortality but not readmission in patients with RT compared to those without (90d mortality:+43%, p â€‹= â€‹0.03; 90d readmission:+7.1%, p â€‹= â€‹0.776). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with RT for whom there is clinical equipoise regarding EGS management, operative intervention increases risk of mortality.

Primary Care Physician Follow-Up and 30-Day Readmission After Emergency General Surgery Admissions.

Importance: The benefit of primary care physician (PCP) follow-up as a potential means to reduce readmissions in hospitalized patients has been found in other medical conditions and among patients receiving high-risk surgery. However, little is known about the implications of PCP follow-up for patients with an emergency general surgery (EGS) condition. Objective: To evaluate the association between PCP follow-up and 30-day readmission rates after hospital discharge for an EGS condition. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Master Beneficiary Summary File, Inpatient, Carrier (Part B), and Durable Medical Equipment files for beneficiaries aged 66 years or older who were hospitalized with an EGS condition that was managed operatively or nonoperatively between September 1, 2016, and November 30, 2018. Eligible patients were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service, admitted through the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of an EGS condition, and received a general surgery consultation during the admission. Data were analyzed between July 11, 2022, and June 5, 2023. Exposure: Follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after hospital discharge for the index admission. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. An inverse probability weighted regression model was used to estimate the risk-adjusted association of PCP follow-up with 30-day readmission. The secondary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge stratified by treatment type (operative vs nonoperative treatment) during their index admission. Results: The study included 345 360 Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 74.4 [12.0] years; 187 804 females [54.4%]) hospitalized with an EGS condition. Of these, 156 820 patients (45.4%) had a follow-up PCP visit, 108 544 (31.4%) received operative treatment during their index admission, and 236 816 (68.6%) received nonoperative treatment. Overall, 58 253 of 332 874 patients (17.5%) were readmitted within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. After risk adjustment and propensity weighting, patients who had PCP follow-up had 67% lower odds of readmission (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.36) compared with patients without PCP follow-up. After stratifying by treatment type, patients who were treated operatively during their index admission and had subsequent PCP follow-up within 30 days after discharge had 79% reduced odds of readmission (AOR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.18-0.25); a similar association was seen among patients who were treated nonoperatively (AOR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.34-0.39). Infectious conditions, heart failure, acute kidney failure, and chronic kidney disease were among the most frequent diagnoses prompting readmission overall and among operative and nonoperative treatment groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after discharge for an EGS condition was associated with a significant reduction in the adjusted odds of 30-day readmission. This association was similar for patients who received operative care or nonoperative care during their index admission. In patients aged 66 years or older with an EGS condition, primary care coordination after discharge may be an important tool to reduce readmissions.

Delayed time to radiation and overall survival in Merkel cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Clinically localized Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is commonly treated with surgical excision and radiotherapy. The relationship between time to adjuvant radiotherapy and overall survival (OS) remains understudied. METHODS: This retrospective study used data from the National Cancer Database (2006-2019). Patients with clinically localized MCC who received surgical excision and adjuvant radiotherapy were included. Multivariate regressions were used to account for various patient and tumor factors. The primary outcome was 5-year OS, and the secondary outcome was time from diagnosis to adjuvant radiation (TTR). RESULTS: Of the 1965 patients included, most were male (n = 1242, 63.2%) and white (n = 1915, 97.5%), and the median age was 74 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 66-81). The median TTR was 83 days (IQR: 65-106). A total of 83.6% of patients received radiotherapy to the primary site, 21.3% to the draining nodal basin, 17.1% to both, and 12.2% whose target location of radiotherapy was not recorded in the data. TTR of ≥79 days (the 45th percentile) was associated with worse OS on both univariate and multivariate analyses (log-rank p = 0.0014; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.258, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.055-1.500, p = 0.010). This persisted on sub-analyses of patients <80 years old (n = 1407; HR: 1.380, 95% CI: 1.080-1.764, p = 0.010) and of patients with Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) of 0 (n = 1411; HR: 1.284, 95% CI: 1.034-1.595, p = 0.024). Factors associated with delayed TTR included greater age (p = 0.039), male sex (p = 0.04), CCI > 1 (p = 0.036), academic facility (p < 0.001), rural county (p = 0.034), AJCC T2 stage (p = 0.010), negative margins (p = 0.017), 2+ pathologically positive regional nodes (p = 0.011), and margin size >2 cm (p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Delayed radiotherapy (≥79 days) was associated with worse OS of MCC patients. Further study in controlled cohorts is needed to ascertain this relationship.

A guide to regression discontinuity designs in medical applications.

We present a practical guide for the analysis of regression discontinuity (RD) designs in biomedical contexts. We begin by introducing key concepts, assumptions, and estimands within both the continuity-based framework and the local randomization framework. We then discuss modern estimation and inference methods within both frameworks, including approaches for bandwidth or local neighborhood selection, optimal treatment effect point estimation, and robust bias-corrected inference methods for uncertainty quantification. We also overview empirical falsification tests that can be used to support key assumptions. Our discussion focuses on two particular features that are relevant in biomedical research: (i) fuzzy RD designs, which often arise when therapeutic treatments are based on clinical guidelines, but patients with scores near the cutoff are treated contrary to the assignment rule; and (ii) RD designs with discrete scores, which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications. We illustrate our discussion with three empirical applications: the effect CD4 guidelines for anti-retroviral therapy on retention of HIV patients in South Africa, the effect of genetic guidelines for chemotherapy on breast cancer recurrence in the United States, and the effects of age-based patient cost-sharing on healthcare utilization in Taiwan. Complete replication materials employing publicly available data and statistical software in Python, R and Stata are provided, offering researchers all necessary tools to conduct an RD analysis.

Emergency Surgery, Multimorbidity and Hospital-Free Days: A Retrospective Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Analyzing hospital-free days (HFDs) offers a patient-centered approach to health services research. We hypothesized that, within emergency general surgery (EGS), multimorbidity would be associated with fewer HFDs, whether patients were managed operatively or nonoperatively. METHODS: EGS patients were identified using national Medicare claims data (2015-2018). Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set and stratified by treatment: operative (received surgery within 48 h of index admission) and nonoperative. HFDs were calculated through 180 d, beginning on the day of index admission, as days alive and spent outside of a hospital, an Emergency Department, or a long-term acute care facility. Univariate comparisons were performed using Kruskal-Wallis tests and risk-adjusted HFDs were compared between multimorbid and nonmultimorbid patients using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Among 174,891 operative patients, 45.5% were multimorbid. Among 398,756 nonoperative patients, 59.2% were multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had fewer median HFDs than nonmultimorbid patients among operative and nonoperative cohorts (P < 0.001). At 6 mo, among operative patients, multimorbid patients had 6.5 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001), and among nonoperative patients, multimorbid patients had 7.9 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001). When length of stay was included as a covariate, nonoperative multimorbid patients still had 7.9 fewer HFDs than nonoperative, nonmultimorbid patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HFDs offer a patient-centered, composite outcome for claims-based analyses. For EGS patients, multimorbidity was associated with less time alive and out of the hospital, especially when patients were managed nonoperatively.

Conditional Effects of Race on Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed both operatively or nonoperatively; however, it is unknown whether the decision to operate affects Black and White patients differentially. METHODS: We identified a nationwide cohort of Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, hospitalized for common EGS conditions from July 2015 to June 2018. Using near-far matching to adjust for measurable confounding and an instrumental variable analysis to control for selection bias associated with treatment assignment, we compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative management in a stratified population of Black and White patients. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, nonroutine discharge, and 30-day readmissions. An interaction test based on a t test was used to determine the conditional effects of operative versus nonoperative management between Black and White patients. RESULTS: A total of 556,087 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 59,519 (10.7%) were Black and 496,568 (89.3%) were White. Overall, 165,932 (29.8%) patients had an operation and 390,155 (70.2%) were managed nonoperatively. Significant outcome differences were seen between operative and nonoperative management for some conditions; however, no significant differences were seen for the conditional effect of race on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to manage an EGS patient operatively versus nonoperatively has varying effects on surgical outcomes. These effects vary by EGS condition. There were no significant conditional effects of race on the outcomes of operative versus nonoperative management among universally insured older adults hospitalized with EGS conditions.

Association of Established Primary Care Use With Postoperative Mortality Following Emergency General Surgery Procedures.

Importance: Sixty-five million individuals in the US live in primary care shortage areas with nearly one-third of Medicare patients in need of a primary care health care professional. Periodic health examinations and preventive care visits have demonstrated a benefit for surgical patients; however, the impact of primary care health care professional shortages on adverse outcomes from surgery is largely unknown. Objective: To determine if preoperative primary care utilization is associated with postoperative mortality following an emergency general surgery (EGS) operation among Black and White older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department. Participants were Medicare patients aged 66 years or older who were admitted from the emergency department for an EGS condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018, and underwent an operation on hospital day 0, 1, or 2. The analysis was performed during December 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 EGS condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes; colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, or upper gastrointestinal. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression was used in the risk-adjusted models. An interaction term model was used to measure effect modification by race. Exposure: Primary care utilization in the year prior to presentation for an EGS operation. Main Outcome and Measures: In-hospital, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality. Results: A total of 102 384 patients (mean age, 73.8 [SD, 11.5] years) were included in the study. Of those, 8559 were Black (8.4%) and 93 825 were White (91.6%). A total of 88 340 patients (86.3%) had seen a primary care physician in the year prior to their index hospitalization. After risk adjustment, patients with primary care exposure had 19% lower odds of in-hospital mortality than patients without primary care exposure (odds ratio [OR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72-0.92). At 30 days patients with primary care exposure had 27% lower odds of mortality (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). This remained relatively stable at 60 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), 90 days (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), and 180 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81). None of the interactions between race and primary care physician exposure for mortality at any time interval were significantly different. Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study of Black and White Medicare patients, primary care utilization had no impact on in-hospital mortality for Black patients, but was associated with decreased mortality for White patients. Primary care utilization was associated with decreased mortality for both Black and White patients at 30, 60, 90 and 180 days.

National Cohort Study of Resource Utilization in Older Adults With Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have sought to describe Emergency General Surgery (EGS) burden, but a detailed description of resource utilization for both operative and nonoperative management of EGS conditions has not been undertaken. METHODS: Patient and hospital characteristics were extracted from Medicare data, 2015-2018. Operations, nonsurgical procedures, and other resources (i.e., radiology) were defined using Current Procedural Terminology codes. RESULTS: One million eight hundred two thousand five hundred forty-five patients were included in the cohort. The mean age was 74.7 y and the most common diagnoses were upper gastrointestinal. The majority of hospitals were metropolitan (75.1%). Therapeutic radiology services were available in 78.4% of hospitals and operating rooms or endoscopy suites were available in 92.5% of hospitals. There was variability in resource utilization across EGS subconditions, with hepatobiliary (26.4%) and obstruction (23.9%) patients most frequently undergoing operation. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of EGS diseases in older adults involves several interventional resources. Changes in EGS models, acute care surgery training, and interhospital care coordination may be beneficial to the treatment of EGS patients.

The Conditional Effects of Multimorbidity on Operative Versus Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: A Retrospective Observational Study Using an Instrumental Variable Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To understand how multimorbidity impacts operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions. BACKGROUND: EGS is a heterogenous field, encompassing operative and nonoperative treatment options. Decision-making is particularly complex for older patients with multimorbidity. METHODS: Using an instrumental variable approach with near-far matching, this national, retrospective observational cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries examines the conditional effects of multimorbidity, defined using qualifying comorbidity sets, on operative versus nonoperative management of EGS conditions. RESULTS: Of 507,667 patients with EGS conditions, 155,493 (30.6%) received an operation. Overall, 278,836 (54.9%) were multimorbid. After adjustment, multimorbidity significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with operative management for general abdominal patients (+9.8%; P = 0.002) and upper gastrointestinal patients (+19.9%, P < 0.001) and the risk of 30-day mortality (+27.7%, P < 0.001) and nonroutine discharge (+21.8%, P = 0.007) associated with operative management for upper gastrointestinal patients. Regardless of multimorbidity status, operative management was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality among colorectal patients (multimorbid: + 12%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +4%, P = 0.003), higher risk of nonroutine discharge among colorectal (multimorbid: +42.3%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +55.1%, P < 0.001) and intestinal obstruction patients (multimorbid: +14.6%, P = 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +14.8%, P = 0.001), and lower risk of nonroutine discharge (multimorbid: -11.5%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: -11.9%, P < 0.001) and 30-day readmissions (multimorbid: -8.2%, P = 0.002; nonmultimorbid: -9.7%, P < 0.001) among hepatobiliary patients. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of multimorbidity on operative versus nonoperative management varied by EGS condition category. Physicians and patients should have honest conversations about the expected risks and benefits of treatment options, and future investigations should aim to understand the optimal management of multimorbid EGS patients.

Impact of Medicaid expansion on outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Lack of insurance has been independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, possibly due to worse control of comorbidities and delays in diagnosis and treatment. Medicaid expansion has improved insurance rates and access to care, potentially benefiting these patients. We sought to assess the association between Medicaid expansion and outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases data from 14 states between 2012 and 2018 was conducted. The sample was restricted to first-record abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs in adults under age 65 in states that expanded Medicaid on January 1, 2014 (Medicaid expansion group) or had not expanded before December 31, 2018 (non-expansion group). The Medicaid expansion and non-expansion groups were compared between pre-expansion (2012-2013) and post-expansion (2014-2018) time periods to assess baseline demographic and operative differences. We used difference-in-differences multivariable logistic regression adjusted for patient factors, open vs endovascular repair, and standard errors clustered by state. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Outcomes were stratified by insurance type. RESULTS: We examined 8995 patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, including 3789 (42.1%) in non-expansion states and 5206 (57.9%) in Medicaid expansion states. Rates of Medicaid insurance were unchanged in non-expansion states but increased in Medicaid expansion states post-expansion (non-expansion: 10.9% to 9.8%; P = .346; expansion: 9.7% to 19.7%; P < .001). One in 10 patients from both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states presented with ruptured aneurysms, which did not change over time. Rates of open repair decreased in both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states over time (non-expansion: 25.1% to 19.2%; P < .001; expansion: 25.2% to 18.4%; P < .001). On adjusted difference-in-differences analysis between expansion and non-expansion states pre-to post-expansion, Medicaid expansion was associated with a 1.02% absolute reduction in in-hospital mortality among all patients (95% confidence interval, -1.87% to -0.17%; P = .019). Additionally, among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured (ie, the patients most likely to be impacted by Medicaid expansion), a larger 4.17% decrease in in-hospital mortality was observed (95% confidence interval, -6.47% to -1.87%; P < .001). In contrast, no significant difference-in-difference in mortality was observed for privately insured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair among all patients and particularly among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured. Our results provide support for improved access to care for patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair through Medicaid expansion.

Radiation, Lymph Node Dissection, or Both: Management of Lymph Node Micrometastases from Merkel Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Regional lymph node micrometastases from Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) can be treated with completion lymph node dissection (CLND) and/or radiation therapy (RT). It is unclear how these options compare in terms of survival benefits for patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from years 2012-2019 of the National Cancer Database. Patients with MCC and clinically negative, but pathologically positive, lymph node metastases who received RT to and/or CLND of the regional lymph node basin were included. Inverse probability weight balancing was performed using covariates followed by Cox proportional hazards modeling for survival analysis. RESULTS: A total of 962 patients were included [median (interquartile range) age, 74 (67-80) years, 662 (68.8%) male patients, 926 (96.3%) white patients]. The majority (63%, n = 606) had a CLND only, while 18% (n = 173) had RT only, and 19% (n = 183) had both CLND and RT. From 2016 to 2019, usage of RT only increased from 10% to 31.8%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that treatment modality was not associated with survival [RT versus CLND, hazard ratio (HR) 0.842, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.621-1.142, p = 0.269, RT+CLND versus CLND, HR 1.029, 95% CI 0.775-1.367, p = 0.844]. This persisted after balancing weights (RT versus CLND, HR 0.837, 95% CI 0.614-1.142, p = 0.262, RT+CLND versus CLND, HR 1.085, 95% CI 0.801-1.470, p = 0.599). CONCLUSIONS: The usage of RT for nodal micrometastasis in MCC is increasing as compared with CLND. This strategy appears to be safe, with no significant difference in survival outcomes.

Comparison of Simulated Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer Surgery at the Highest-Performing vs Chosen Local Hospitals.

Importance: Variation in outcomes across hospitals adversely affects surgical patients. The use of high-quality hospitals varies by population, which may contribute to surgical disparities. Objective: To simulate the implications of data-driven hospital selection for social welfare among patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used the hospital inpatient file from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Surgical outcomes of patients who were treated between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018 (training cohort), were used to estimate hospital performance. Costs and benefits of care at alternative hospitals were assessed in patients who were treated between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2019 (testing cohort). The cohorts comprised patients 18 years or older who underwent elective colorectal resection for benign or malignant neoplasms. Data were analyzed from March to October 2022. Exposures: Using hierarchical logistic regression, we estimated the implications of hospital selection for in-hospital mortality risk in patients in the training cohort. These estimates were applied to patients in the testing cohort using bayesian simulations to compare outcomes at each patient's highest-performing and chosen local hospitals. Analyses were stratified by race and ethnicity to evaluate the potential implications for equity. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the mean patient-level change in social welfare, a composite measure balancing the value of reduced mortality with associated costs of care at higher-performing hospitals. Results: A total of 21 098 patients (mean [SD] age, 67.3 [12.0] years; 10 782 males [51.1%]; 2232 Black [10.6%] and 18 866 White [89.4%] individuals) who were treated at 178 hospitals were included. A higher-quality local hospital was identified for 3057 of 5000 patients (61.1%) in the testing cohort. Selecting the highest-performing hospital was associated with a 26.5% (95% CI, 24.5%-29.0%) relative reduction and 0.24% (95% CI, 0.23%-0.25%) absolute reduction in mortality risk. A mean amount of $1953 (95% CI, $1744-$2162) was gained in social welfare per patient treated. Simulated reassignment to a higher-quality local hospital was associated with a 23.5% (95% CI, 19.3%-32.9%) relative reduction and 0.26% (95% CI, 0.21%-0.30%) absolute reduction in mortality risk for Black patients, with $2427 (95% CI, $1697-$3158) gained in social welfare. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation, using procedure-specific hospital performance as the primary factor in the selection of a local hospital for colorectal cancer surgery was associated with improved outcomes for both patients and society. Surgical outcomes data can be used to transform care and guide policy in colorectal cancer.

Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: An Observational Study Using a Novel Instrumental Variable.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery conditions on short-term and long-term outcomes. BACKGROUND: Many emergency general surgery conditions can be managed either operatively or nonoperatively, but high-quality evidence to guide management decisions is scarce. METHODS: We included 507,677 Medicare patients treated for an emergency general surgery condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. Operative management was compared with nonoperative management using a preference-based instrumental variable analysis and near-far matching to minimize selection bias and unmeasured confounding. Outcomes were mortality, complications, and readmissions. RESULTS: For hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions, operative management was associated with lower risk of mortality at 30 days [-2.6% (95% confidence interval: -4.0, -1.3)], 90 days [-4.7% (-6.50, -2.8)], and 180 days [-6.4% (-8.5, -4.2)]. Among 56,582 intestinal obstruction patients, operative management was associated with a higher risk of inpatient mortality [2.8% (0.7, 4.9)] but no significant difference thereafter. For upper gastrointestinal conditions, operative management was associated with a 9.7% higher risk of in-hospital mortality (6.4, 13.1), which increased over time. There was a 6.9% higher risk of inpatient mortality (3.6, 10.2) with operative management for colorectal conditions, which increased over time. For general abdominal conditions, operative management was associated with 12.2% increased risk of inpatient mortality (8.7, 15.8). This effect was attenuated at 30 days [8.5% (3.8, 13.2)] and nonsignificant thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of operative emergency general surgery management varied across conditions and over time. For colorectal and upper gastrointestinal conditions, outcomes are superior with nonoperative management, whereas surgery is favored for patients with hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions. For obstructions and general abdominal conditions, results were equivalent overall. These findings may support patients, clinicians, and families making these challenging decisions.

Analyzing Impact of Multimorbidity on Long-Term Outcomes after Emergency General Surgery: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of multimorbidity on long-term outcomes for older emergency general surgery patients. STUDY DESIGN: Medicare beneficiaries, age 65 and older, who underwent operative management of an emergency general surgery condition were identified using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid claims data. Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set (a specific combination of comorbid conditions known to be associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the general surgery setting) and compared with those without multimorbidity. Risk-adjusted outcomes through 180 days after discharge from index hospitalization were calculated using linear and logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of 174,891 included patients, 45.5% were identified as multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had higher rates of mortality during index hospitalization (5.9% vs 0.7%, odds ratio [OR] 3.05, p < 0.001) and through 6 months (17.1% vs 3.4%, OR 2.33, p < 0.001) after discharge. Multimorbid patients experienced higher rates of readmission at 1 month (22.9% vs 11.4%, OR 1.48, p < 0.001) and 6 months (38.2% vs 21.2%, OR 1.48, p < 0.001) after discharge, lower rates of discharge to home (42.5% vs 74.2%, OR 0.52, p < 0.001), higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation/nursing facility (28.3% vs 11.3%, OR 1.62, p < 0.001), greater than double the use of home oxygen, walker, wheelchair, bedside commode, and hospital bed (p < 0.001), longer length of index hospitalization (1.33 additional in-patient days, p < 0.001), and higher costs through 6 months ($5,162 additional, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Older, multimorbid patients experience worse outcomes, including survival and independent function, after emergency general surgery than nonmultimorbid patients through 6 months after discharge from index hospitalization. This information is important for setting recovery expectations for high-risk patients to improve shared decision-making.

Rates of Surgical Consultations After Emergency Department Admission in Black and White Medicare Patients.

Importance: A surgical consultation is a critical first step in the care of patients with emergency general surgery conditions. It is unknown if Black Medicare patients and White Medicare patients receive surgical consultations at similar rates when they are admitted from the emergency department. Objective: To determine whether Black Medicare patients have similar rates of surgical consultations when compared with White Medicare patients after being admitted from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department and used a computational generalization of inverse propensity score weight to create patient populations with similar covariate distributions. Participants were Medicare patients age 65.5 years or older admitted from the emergency department for an emergency general surgery condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. The analysis was performed during February 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 emergency general surgery condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal. Exposures: Black vs White race. Main Outcomes and Measures: Receipt of a surgical consultation after admission from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition. Results: A total of 1 686 940 patients were included in the study. Of those included, 214 788 patients were Black (12.7%) and 1 472 152 patients were White (87.3%). After standardizing for medical and diagnostic imaging covariates, Black patients had 14% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation (odds ratio [OR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.85-0.87) with a risk difference of -3.17 (95% CI, -3.41 to -2.92). After standardizing for socioeconomic covariates, Black patients remained at an 11% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation compared with similar White patients (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90) with a risk difference of -2.49 (95% CI, -2.75 to -2.23). Additionally, when restricting the analysis to Black patients and White patients who were treated in the same hospitals, Black patients had 8% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation when compared with White patients (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.93) with a risk difference of -1.82 (95% CI, -2.18 to -1.46). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, Black Medicare patients had lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation after being admitted from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition when compared with similar White Medicare patients. These disparities in consultation rates cannot be fully attributed to medical comorbidities, insurance status, socioeconomic factors, or individual hospital-level effects.

An Internally Validated Prognostic Risk-Score Model for Disease-Specific Survival in Clinical Stage I and II Merkel Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare cutaneous malignancy for which factors predictive of disease-specific survival (DSS) are poorly defined. METHODS: Patients from six centers (2005-2020) with clinical stage I-II MCC who underwent sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy were included. Factors associated with DSS were identified using competing-risks regression analysis. Risk-score modeling was established using competing-risks regression on a training dataset and internally validated by point assignment to variables. RESULTS: Of 604 patients, 474 (78.5%) and 128 (21.2%) patients had clinical stage I and II disease, respectively, and 189 (31.3%) had SLN metastases. The 5-year DSS rate was 81.8% with a median follow-up of 31 months. Prognostic factors associated with worse DSS included increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, p = 0.046), male sex (HR 3.21, p = 0.021), immune compromise (HR 2.46, p = 0.013), presence of microsatellites (HR 2.65, p = 0.041), and regional nodal involvement (1 node: HR 2.48, p = 0.039; ≥2 nodes: HR 2.95, p = 0.026). An internally validated, risk-score model incorporating all of these factors was developed with good performance (AUC 0.738). Patients with ≤ 4.00 and > 4.00 points had 5-year DSS rates of 89.4% and 67.2%, respectively. Five-year DSS for pathologic stage I/II patients with > 4.00 points (n = 49) was 79.8% and for pathologic stage III patients with ≤ 4.00 points (n = 62) was 90.3%. CONCLUSIONS: A risk-score model, including patient and tumor factors, based on DSS improves prognostic assessment of patients with clinically localized MCC. This may inform surveillance strategies and patient selection for adjuvant therapy trials.

Association of type II diabetes mellitus with characteristics and outcomes for patients undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy for cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can lead to an immunosuppressed state, but whether T2DM is associated with worse outcomes for patients with melanoma has not been well studied. METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with clinical stage I-II cutaneous melanoma who underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy at a single institution (2007-2016) were identified. Melanoma characteristics and recurrence/survival outcomes were compared between patients with and without T2DM at the time of melanoma diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 1128 patients evaluated, 111 (9.8%) had T2DM (n = 94 [84.7%] non-insulin dependent [NID-T2DM]; n = 17 [15.3%] insulin dependent [ID-T2DM]). T2DM patients were more likely to be older (odds ratio [OR] 1.04, p < 0.001), male (OR 2.15, p = 0.003), have tumors >1.0 mm (OR 1.88, p = 0.023), and have microsatellitosis (OR 2.29, p = 0.030). Five-year cumulative incidence of melanoma recurrence was significantly higher for patients with ID-T2DM (46.7% ID-T2DM vs. 25.7% NID-T2DM vs. 17.1% no T2DM, p < 0.001), and on multivariable analysis, ID-T2DM was independently associated with melanoma recurrence (hazard ratio 2.57, p = 0.015). No difference in 5-year disease-specific survival was observed between groups. CONCLUSIONS: ID-T2DM appears to be associated with more advanced melanoma and increased risk for melanoma recurrence. Further study as to whether this reflects differences in tumor biology or host factors is warranted.