RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In recent years, there has been an outpouring of scoring systems that were built to predict outcomes after various surgical procedures; however, research validating these studies in spinal surgery is quite limited. In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) for various postoperative outcomes after spinal deformity surgery. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was conducted to identify patients who underwent spinal deformity surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022. Demographic and clinical data necessary to use the ACS NSQIP SRC and postoperative outcomes were collected for these patients. Predictability was analyzed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves and Brier scores. RESULTS: Among the 159 study patients, the mean age was 64.5 ± 9.5 years, mean body mass index was 31.9 ± 6.6, and 95 (59.7%) patients were women. The outcome most accurately predicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC was postoperative pneumonia (observed = 5.0% vs predicted = 3.2%, AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.05), but its predictability still fell below the acceptable threshold. Other outcomes that were underpredicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC were readmission within 30 days (observed = 13.8% vs predicted = 9.0%, AUC = 0.63, Brier score = 0.12), rate of discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facilities (observed = 56.0% vs predicted = 46.6%, AUC = 0.59, Brier = 0.26), reoperation (observed 11.9% vs predicted 5.4%, AUC = 0.60, Brier = 0.11), surgical site infection (observed 9.4% vs predicted 3.5%, AUC = 0.61, Brier = 0.05), and any complication (observed 33.3% vs 19%, AUC = 0.65, Brier = 0.23). Predicted and observed length of stay were not significantly associated (ß = 0.132, P = .47). CONCLUSION: The ACS NSQIP SRC is a poor predictor of outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Posterior cervical fusion is the surgery of choice when fusing long segments of the cervical spine. However, because of the limited presence of this pathology, there is a paucity of data in the literature about the postoperative complications of distal junctional kyphosis (DJK). We aimed to identify and report potential associations between the preoperative cervical vertebral bone quality (C-VBQ) score and the occurrence of DJK after posterior cervical fusion. METHODS: The authors retrospectively reviewed records of patients who underwent posterior cervical fusion at a single hospital between June 1, 2010, and May 31, 2020. Patient data were screened to include patients who were >18 years old, had baseline MRI, had baseline standing cervical X-ray, had immediate postoperative standing cervical X-ray, and had clinical and radiographic follow-ups of >1 year, including a standing cervical X-ray at least 1 year postoperatively. Univariate analysis was completed between DJK and non-DJK groups, with multivariate regression completed for relevant clinical variables. Simple linear regression was completed to analyze correlation between the C-VBQ score and total degrees of kyphosis angle change. RESULTS: Ninety-three patients were identified, of whom 19 (20.4%) had DJK and 74 (79.6%) did not. The DJK group had a significantly higher C-VBQ score than the non-DJK group (2.97 ± 0.40 vs 2.26 ± 0.46; P < .001). A significant, positive correlation was found between the C-VBQ score and the total degrees of kyphosis angle change (r 2 = 0.26; P < .001). On multivariate analysis, the C-VBQ score independently predicted DJK (odds ratio, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.27-1.67; P < .001). CONCLUSION: We found that the C-VBQ score was an independent predictive factor of DJK after posterior cervical fusion.