Endoscopic resection for residual oesophageal neoplasia after definitive chemoradiotherapy.

Definitive chemoradiation is the recommended treatment for locally advanced, irresectable oesophageal cancer and a valid alternative to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with surgery in oesophageal squamous cell cancer (OSCC) patients. In case of locoregional recurrence, salvage treatment can be considered in fit and resectable patients. Salvage surgery is a valid option but associated with significant morbidity. Therefore, for tumors confined to the mucosa or submucosal layers endoscopic resection is a good and less-invasive alternative. Over the last decade several case-series have demonstrated a high technical success rate of endoscopic treatment after definitive CRT. In this review we summarize the clinical outcomes and challenges of endoscopic treatment of early recurrence after definitive CRT in oesophageal cancer.

Curative criteria for endoscopic treatment of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.

The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has been increasing rapidly in the Western world. A well-known risk factor for developing this type of tumour is reflux disease, which can cause metaplasia from the squamous cell mucosa to columnar epithelium (Barrett's Oesophagus) which can progress to dysplasia and eventually adenocarcinoma. With the rise of the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, research on the best way to manage this disease is of great importance and has changed treatment modalities over the last decades. The gold standard for superficial adenocarcinoma has shifted from surgical to endoscopic management when certain criteria are met. This review will discuss the different curative criteria for endoscopic treatment of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.

Incidence and Prediction of Unrelated Mortality After Successful Endoscopic Eradication Therapy for Barrett's Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Follow-up (FU) strategies after endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) for Barrett's neoplasia do not consider the risk of mortality from causes other than esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to evaluate this risk during long-term FU, and to assess whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality. METHODS: We included all patients with successful EET from the nationwide Barrett registry in the Netherlands. Data were merged with National Statistics for accurate mortality data. We evaluated annual mortality rates (AMRs, per 1000 person-years) and standardized mortality ratio for other-cause mortality. Performance of the CCI was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 1154 patients with a mean age of 64 years (±9). During median 59 months (p25-p75 37-91; total 6375 person-years), 154 patients (13%) died from other causes than EAC (AMR, 24.1; 95% CI, 20.5-28.2), most commonly non-EAC cancers (n = 58), cardiovascular (n = 31), or pulmonary diseases (n = 26). Four patients died from recurrent EAC (AMR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-1.4). Compared with the general Dutch population, mortality was significantly increased for patients in the lowest 3 age quartiles (ie, age <71 years). Validation of CCI in our population showed good discrimination (Concordance statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and fair calibration. CONCLUSION: The other-cause mortality risk after successful EET was more than 40 times higher (48; 95% CI, 15-99) than the risk of EAC-related mortality. Our findings reveal that younger post-EET patients exhibit a significantly reduced life expectancy when compared with the general population. Furthermore, they emphasize the strong predictive ability of CCI for long-term mortality after EET. This straightforward scoring system can inform decisions regarding personalized FU, including appropriate cessation timing. (NL7039).

Vertical tumor-positive resection margins and the risk of residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection of Barrett's neoplasia: a nationwide cohort with pathology reassessment.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the proportion of patients with residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection (ER) for Barrett's neoplasia with confirmed tumor-positive vertical resection margin (R1v). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients undergoing ER for Barrett's neoplasia with histologically documented R1v since 2008 in the Dutch Barrett Expert Centers. We defined R1v as cancer cells touching vertical resection margins and Rx as nonassessable margins. Reassessment of R1v specimens was performed by experienced pathologists until consensus was reached regarding vertical margins. RESULTS: 101/110 included patients had macroscopically complete resections (17 T1a, 84 T1b), and 99/101 (98%) ER specimens were histologically reassessed, with R1v confirmed in 74 patients (75%), Rx in 16%, and R0 in 9%. Presence/absence of residual neoplasia could be assessed in 66/74 patients during endoscopic reassessment (52) and/or in the surgical resection specimen (14), and 33/66 (50%) had residual neoplasia. Residual neoplasia detected during endoscopy was always endoscopically visible and biopsies from a normal-appearing ER scar did not detect additional neoplasia. Of 25 patients who underwent endoscopic follow-up (median 37 months [interquartile range 12-50]), 4 developed local recurrence (16.0%), all detected as visible abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: After ER with R1v, 50% of patients had no residual neoplasia. Histological evaluation of ER margins appears challenging, as in this study 75% of documented R1v cases were confirmed during reassessment. Endoscopic reassessment 8-12 weeks after ER seems to accurately detect residual neoplasia and can help to determine the most appropriate strategy for patients with R1v.

Endoscopic submucosal dissection for early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: long-term results from a Western cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is established as first-choice treatment for early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) worldwide, most data are derived from Asian studies. We aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of ESD for patients with early ESCC in a Western cohort. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients with early ESCC amenable to ESD were included from four tertiary referral hospitals in the Netherlands between 2012 and 2017. All ESD procedures were performed by experienced endoscopists, after which the decision for additional treatment was made on a per-patient basis. Outcomes were curative resection rate, ESCC-specific survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: Of 68 included patients (mean age 69 years; 34 males), ESD was technically successful in 66 (97%; 95%CI 93%-100%), with curative resection achieved in 34/66 (52%; 95%CI 39%-64%). Among patients with noncurative resection, 15/32 (47%) underwent additional treatment, mainly esophagectomy (n = 10) or definitive chemoradiation therapy (n = 4). Endoscopic surveillance was preferred in 17/32 patients (53%), based on severe comorbidities or patient choice. Overall, 31/66 patients (47%) died during a median follow-up of 66 months; 8/31 (26%) were ESCC-related deaths. The 5-year overall and ESCC-specific survival probabilities were 62% (95%CI 52%-75%) and 86% (95%CI 77%-96%), respectively. CONCLUSION: In this Western cohort with long-term follow-up, the effectiveness and safety of ESD for early ESCC was confirmed, although the rate of noncurative resections was substantial. Irrespective of curative status, the long-term prognosis of these patients was limited mainly due to competing mortality.

Western outcomes of circumferential endoscopic submucosal dissection for early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Circumferential endoscopic submucosal dissection (cESD) in the esophagus has been reported to be feasible in small Eastern case series. We assessed the outcomes of cESD in the treatment of early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in Western countries. METHODS: We conducted an international study at 25 referral centers in Europe and Australia using prospective databases. We included all patients with ESCC treated with cESD before November 2022. Our main outcomes were curative resection according to European guidelines and adverse events. RESULTS: A total of 171 cESDs were performed on 165 patients. En bloc and R0 resections rates were 98.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 95.0-99.4) and 69.6% (95% CI, 62.3-76.0), respectively. Curative resection was achieved in 49.1% (95% CI, 41.7-56.6) of the lesions. The most common reason for noncurative resection was deep submucosal invasion (21.6%). The risk of stricture requiring 6 or more dilations or additional techniques (incisional therapy/stent) was high (71%), despite the use of prophylactic measures in 93% of the procedures. The rates of intraprocedural perforation, delayed bleeding, and adverse cardiorespiratory events were 4.1%, 0.6%, and 4.7%, respectively. Two patients died (1.2%) of a cESD-related adverse event. Overall and disease-free survival rates at 2 years were 91% and 79%. CONCLUSIONS: In Western referral centers, cESD for ESCC is curative in approximately half of the lesions. It can be considered a feasible treatment in selected patients. Our results suggest the need to improve patient selection and to develop more effective therapies to prevent esophageal strictures.

Predicting procedure duration of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection at Western endoscopy centers.

Background and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to evaluate existing and new prediction models for ESD duration. Patients and methods Records of all consecutive patients who underwent single, non-hybrid colorectal ESDs before 2020 at three Dutch centers were reviewed. The performance of an Eastern prediction model [GIE 2021;94(1):133-144] was assessed in the Dutch cohort. A prediction model for procedure duration was built using multivariable linear regression. The model's performance was validated using internal validation by bootstrap resampling, internal-external cross-validation and external validation in an independent Swedish ESD cohort. Results A total of 435 colorectal ESDs were analyzed (92% en bloc resections, mean duration 139 minutes, mean tumor size 39 mm). The performance of current unstandardized time scheduling practice was suboptimal (explained variance: R 2 =27%). We successfully validated the Eastern prediction model for colorectal ESD duration <60 minutes (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.77), but this model was limited due to dichotomization of the outcome and a relatively low frequency (14%) of ESDs completed <60 minutes in the Dutch centers. The model was more useful with a dichotomization cut-off of 120 minutes (c-statistic: 0.75; 88% and 17% of "easy" and "very difficult" ESDs completed <120 minutes, respectively). To predict ESD duration as continuous outcome, we developed and validated the six-variable cESD-TIME formula ( https://cesdtimeformula.shinyapps.io/calculator/ ; optimism-corrected R 2 =61%; R 2 =66% after recalibration of the slope). Conclusions We provided two useful tools for predicting colorectal ESD duration at Western centers. Further improvements and validations are encouraged with potential local adaptation to optimize time planning.

Outcome of Completion Surgery after Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection in Early-Stage Colorectal Cancer Patients.

T1 colorectal cancers (T1CRC) are increasingly being treated by endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). After ESD of a T1CRC, completion surgery is indicated in a subgroup of patients. Currently, the influence of ESD on surgical morbidity and mortality is unknown. The aim of this study was to compare 90-day morbidity and mortality of completion surgery after ESD to primary surgery. The completion surgery group consisted of suspected T1CRC patients from a multicenter prospective ESD database (2014-2020). The primary surgery group consisted of pT1CRC patients from a nationwide surgical registry (2017-2019). Patients with rectal or sigmoidal cancers were selected. Patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy were excluded. Propensity score adjustment was used to correct for confounders. In total, 411 patients were included: 54 in the completion surgery group (39 pT1, 15 pT2) and 357 in the primary surgery group with pT1CRC. Adverse event rate was 24.1% after completion surgery and 21.3% after primary surgery. After completion surgery 90-day mortality did not occur, though one patient died in the primary surgery group. After propensity score adjustment, lymph node yield did not differ significantly between the groups. Among other morbidity-related outcomes, stoma rate (OR 1.298 95%-CI 0.587-2.872, p = 0.519) and adverse event rate (OR 1.162; 95%-CI 0.570-2.370, p = 0.679) also did not differ significantly. A subgroup analysis was performed in patients undergoing rectal surgery. In this subgroup (37 completion and 136 primary surgery), these morbidity outcomes also did not differ significantly. In conclusion, this study suggests that ESD does not compromise morbidity or 90-day mortality of completion surgery.

Increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in patients with squamous dysplasia: a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands.

Squamous dysplasia is the histological precursor of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The optimal management for distinct squamous dysplasia grades remains unclear because the corresponding risk of developing ESCC is unknown. We aimed to assess the ESCC risk in patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia in a Western country. This nationwide cohort study included all patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia, diagnosed between 1991 and 2020 in the Dutch nationwide pathology databank (Palga). Squamous dysplasia was divided in mild-to-moderate dysplasia (mild, low-grade, and moderate dysplasia) and higher-grade dysplasia (high-grade dysplasia, severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ). ESCC were identified in Palga and the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The primary endpoint was diagnosis of prevalent (≤6 months) and incident (>6 months after squamous dysplasia) ESCC. In total, 873 patients (55% male, aged 68 years SD ± 13.2) were diagnosed with esophageal squamous dysplasia, comprising mild-to-moderate dysplasia (n = 456), higher-grade dysplasia (n = 393), and dysplasia not otherwise specified (n = 24). ESCC was diagnosed in 77 (17%) patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia (49 prevalent, 28 incident ESCC) and in 162 (41%) patients with higher-grade dysplasia (128 prevalent, 34 incident ESCC). After excluding prevalent ESCC, the annual risk of ESCC was 4.0% (95% CI: 2.7-5.7%) in patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia and 8.5% (95% CI: 5.9-11.7%) in patients with higher-grade dysplasia. All patients with squamous dysplasia, including those with mild-to-moderate dysplasia, have a substantial risk of developing ESCC. Consequently, endoscopic surveillance of the esophageal mucosa or endoscopic resection of dysplasia should be considered for patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia in Western countries. KEY MESSAGES What is already known on this topic? Squamous dysplasia is the histological precursor of ESCC and is divided in distinct grades, based on the proportion of the squamous epithelium with histopathological abnormalities. In Western countries, the optimal management for distinct squamous dysplasia grades remains unclear because the corresponding risk of developing ESCC is unknown. What this study adds The ESCC risk of patients with squamous dysplasia was increased for all patients with squamous dysplasia in a Western country; 2.1% for patients with mild dysplasia, 5.1% for low-grade dysplasia, and 5.2% for moderate dysplasia. Increasing grades of squamous dysplasia were associated with an increased ESCC risk. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy We recommend that endoscopic follow-up or treatment should be considered in all patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia in Western countries: 1) for patients with mild, low-grade, and moderate dysplasia, endoscopic surveillance with careful inspection with narrow band imaging or dye-based chromoendoscopy of the esophageal mucosa is indicated; and 2) for patients with high-grade dysplasia, severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ adequate endoscopic staging and in case of suspected neoplasia endoscopic treatment should be performed.

Endoscopic screening of the upper gastrointestinal tract for second primary tumors in patients with head and neck cancer in a Western country.

BACKGROUND: Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) can develop second primary tumors (SPTs) in the esophagus. Endoscopic screening could lead to detection of SPTs at early stages and improve survival. METHODS: We performed a prospective endoscopic screening study in patients with curably treated HNSCC diagnosed between January 2017-July 2021 in a Western country. Screening was performed synchronously (< 6 months) or metachronously (≥ 6 months) after HNSCC diagnosis. Routine imaging for HNSCC consisted of flexible transnasal endoscopy with positron emission tomography/computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, depending on primary HNSCC location. The primary outcome was prevalence of SPTs, defined as presence of esophageal high grade dysplasia or squamous cell carcinoma. RESULTS: 202 patients (mean age 65 years, 80.7 % male) underwent 250 screening endoscopies. HNSCC was located in the oropharynx (31.9 %), hypopharynx (26.9 %), larynx (22.2 %), and oral cavity (18.5 %). Endoscopic screening was performed within 6 months (34.0 %), 6 months to 1 year (8.0 %), 1-2 years (33.6 %), and 2-5 years (24.4 %) after HNSCC diagnosis. We detected 11 SPTs in 10 patients (5.0 %, 95 %CI 2.4 %-8.9 %) during synchronous (6/85) and metachronous (5/165) screening. Most patients had early stage SPTs (90 %) and were treated with curative intent with endoscopic resection (80 %). No SPTs in screened patients were detected with routine imaging for HNSCC before endoscopic screening. CONCLUSION: In 5 % of patients with HNSCC, an SPT was detected with endoscopic screening. Endoscopic screening should be considered in selected HNSCC patients to detect early stage SPTs, based on highest SPT risk and life expectancy according to HNSCC and comorbidities.

Clinical Relevance of Random Biopsies From the Esophagogastric Junction After Complete Eradication of Barrett's Esophagus is Low.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although random histological sampling from the esophagogastric junction (EGJ) after complete eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) is recommended, its clinical relevance is questionable. This study aimed to assess the incidence and long-term outcomes of findings from random EGJ biopsies in a nationwide cohort with long-term follow-up. METHODS: We included all patients with successful endoscopic eradication therapy (EET), defined as complete endoscopic eradication of all visible BE (CE-BE), for early BE neoplasia from the Dutch registry. Patients were treated and followed-up in 9 expert centers according to a joint protocol. Outcomes included the incidence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) at the EGJ (EGJ-IM) and the association between IM and visible (dysplastic) BE recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients were included with a median follow-up of 43 months (interquartile range, 22-69 months). At the time of CE-BE, persisting EGJ-IM was found in 7% of patients (78/1154), which was reproduced during further follow-up in 46% of patients (42/78). No significant association existed between persisting EGJ-IM at CE-BE and recurrent non-dysplastic or dysplastic BE (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-2.13 and HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.17-3.06, respectively). Among patients with no EGJ-IM at the time of CE-BE (1043/1154; 90%), EGJ-IM recurred in 7% (72/1043) after a median of 21 months (interquartile range, 15-36 months), and was reproduced during further follow-up in 26% of patients (19/72). No association was found between recurrent EGJ-IM and non-dysplastic or dysplastic recurrence (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.67-2.06 and HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.04-1.96, respectively). CONCLUSION: Because EGJ-IM was not associated with a higher risk for recurrent disease, we recommend to consider abandoning random EGJ sampling after successful EET, under the condition that care is provided in expert centers, and the esophagus, including the EGJ, is carefully inspected (Netherlands Trial Register, NL7309).

Prevalence of lung tumors in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and vice versa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Recent reports suggest an increased prevalence of lung second primary tumors (LSPTs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and vice versa. However, the exact prevalence of SPTs remains unclear and screening for these SPTs is currently not routinely performed in western countries. We aimed to report on the prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC and esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in patients with lung cancer (LC). METHODS: Databases were searched until 25 March 2021 for studies reporting the prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC or vice versa. Pooled prevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SPTs were calculated with inverse variance, random-effects models and Clopper-Pearson. RESULTS: Nineteen studies in ESCC patients and 20 studies in LC patients were included. The pooled prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC was 1.8% (95% CI 1.4-2.3%). For ESPTs in LC patients, the pooled prevalence was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.4%). The prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC patients was significantly higher in patients treated curatively compared to studies also including palliative patients (median 2.5% versus 1.3%). This difference was consistent for the ESPT prevalence in LC patients (treated curatively median 1.3% versus 0.1% for all treatments). Over 50% of the detected SPTs were squamous cell carcinomas and were diagnosed metachronously. CONCLUSION: Patients with ESCC and LC have an increased risk of developing SPTs in the lungs and esophagus. However, the relatively low SPT prevalence rates do not justify screening in these patients. Further research should focus on risk stratification to identify subgroups of patients at highest risk of SPT development.

Screening for head and neck tumors in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and vice versa: a nationwide survey among medical specialists.

Background and study aims Retrospectively, minimally 5% of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and 11 % with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in Western countries developed a second primary tumor (SPT). SPT screening in ESCC and HNSCC patients is not implemented routinely in daily practice in many Western countries. This study aimed to assess medical specialist knowledge and opinions regarding screening for head and neck SPTs (HNSPTs) in ESCC patients and vice versa in the Netherlands. Methods A nationwide survey among gastroenterologists and head and neck (HN) surgeons was conducted between December 2020 and March 2021. The survey consisted of 27 questions and focused on knowledge of medical specialists of the prevalence and opinions toward implementing screening for HNSPTs in ESCC patients and vice versa. Results One hundred twenty-eight gastroenterologists (20.5 %) and 31 HN surgeons (50.0 %) completed the survey. The expected median prevalence of HNSPTs in ESCC was 7.0 % (interquartile range [IQR]: 5.0-15.0) among gastroenterologists and 5.0 % (IQR:3.0-8.0) among HN surgeons. For ESPTs in HNSCC, the expected median prevalence was 9.5 % (IQR: 5.0-12.0) among gastroenterologists and 4.0 % (IQR: 2.0-5.0) among HN surgeons. Screening for HNSPTs and ESPTs was considered promising by 35.2 % and 39.6 %, respectively, which increased to 54.7 % of the specialists after providing incidence data on SPTs. Of the HN surgeons, 41.3 % felt they were as capable as gastroenterologists of performing esophageal screening. Conclusions This Dutch nationwide survey revealed a lack of knowledge and different perspectives among specialists about screening to detect SPTs in ESCC and HNSCC patients. Adequate education seems essential to increase awareness among specialists and improve SPT detection, independent of the need for implementation of screening for SPTs in ESCC and HNSCC patients.

Dysplastic Recurrence After Successful Treatment for Early Barrett's Neoplasia: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The combination of endoscopic resection and radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) with dysplasia and/or early cancer. Currently, there are no evidence-based recommendations on how to survey patients after successful treatment, and most patients undergo frequent follow-up endoscopies. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prediction model for visible dysplastic recurrence, which can be used to personalize surveillance after treatment. METHODS: We collected data from the Dutch Barrett Expert Center Registry, a nationwide registry that captures outcomes from all patients with BE undergoing endoscopic treatment in the Netherlands in a centralized care setting. We used predictors related to demographics, severity of reflux, histologic status at baseline, and treatment characteristics. We built a Fine and Gray survival model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization to predict the incidence of visible dysplastic recurrence after initial successful treatment. The model was validated externally in patients with BE treated in Switzerland and Belgium. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients with complete BE eradication were included for model building. During a mean endoscopic follow-up of 4 years, 38 patients developed recurrent disease (1.0%/person-year). The following characteristics were independently associated with recurrence (strongest to weakest predictor): a new visible lesion during treatment phase, higher number of endoscopic resection treatments, male sex, increasing BE length, high-grade dysplasia or cancer at baseline, and younger age. External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.94) with good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first externally validated model to predict visible dysplastic recurrence after successful endoscopic eradication treatment of BE with dysplasia or early cancer. On external validation, our model has good discrimination and calibration. This model can help clinicians and patients to determine a personalized follow-up strategy.

Analysis of metastases rates during follow-up after endoscopic resection of early "high-risk" esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: After endoscopic resection (ER) of early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the optimal management of patients with high-risk histologic features for lymph node metastases (ie, submucosal invasion, poor differentiation grade, or lymphovascular invasion) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate outcomes of endoscopic follow-up after ER for high-risk EAC. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from all Dutch patients managed with endoscopic follow-up (endoscopy, EUS) after ER for high-risk EAC between 2008 and 2019. We distinguished 3 groups: intramucosal cancers with high-risk features, submucosal cancers with low-risk features, and submucosal cancers with high-risk features. The primary outcome was the annual risk for metastases during follow-up, stratified for baseline histology. RESULTS: One hundred twenty patients met the selection criteria. Median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 15-48). Metastases were observed in 5 of 25 (annual risk, 6.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-15) high-risk intramucosal cancers, 1 of 55 (annual risk, .7%; 95% CI, 0-4.0) low-risk submucosal cancers, and 3 of 40 (annual risk, 3.0%; 95% CI, 0-7.0) high-risk submucosal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas the annual metastasis rate for high-risk submucosal EAC (3.0%) was somewhat lower than expected in comparison with previous reported percentages, the annual metastasis rate of 6.9% for high-risk intramucosal EAC is new and worrisome. This calls for further prospective studies and suggests that strict follow-up of this small subgroup is warranted until prospective data are available.

Development and External Validation of a Model to Predict Complex Treatment After Radiofrequency Ablation for Barrett's Esophagus With Early Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is safe and leads to complete eradication in the majority of patients. However, a subgroup will experience a more complex treatment course with a risk for failure or disease progression. Early identification of these patients may improve patient counseling and treatment outcomes. We aimed to develop a prognostic model for a complex treatment course. METHODS: We collected data from a nationwide registry that captures outcomes for all patients undergoing endoscopic eradication therapy for early BE neoplasia. A complex treatment course was defined as neoplastic progression, treatment failure, or the need for endoscopic resection during the radiofrequency ablation treatment phase. We developed a prognostic model using logistic regression. We externally validated our model in an independent registry. RESULTS: A total of 1386 patients were included, of whom 78 (6%) had a complex treatment course. Our model identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer with a visible lesion containing high-grade dysplasia/cancer, and patients with less than 50% squamous conversion after radiofrequency ablation were identified as high risk for a complex treatment. This applied to 8% of the study population and included 93% of all treatment failures and 76% of all patients with advanced neoplastic progression. The model appeared robust in multiple sensitivity analyses and performed well in external validation (area under the curve, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a prognostic model that identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer and high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma and those with poor squamous regeneration as high risk for a complex treatment course. The good performance in external validation suggests that it may be used in clinical management (Netherlands Trial Register: NL7039).

Relevance of polyp size for primary endoscopic full-thickness resection of suspected T1 colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: En bloc local excision of suspected T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) provides optimal tumor risk assessment with curative intent. Endoscopic full-thickness resection (eFTR) with an over-the-scope device has emerged as a local excision technique for T1 CRCs, but data on the upper size limit for achieving a histological complete (R0) resection are lacking. We aimed to determine the influence of polyp size on the R0 rate. METHODS: eFTR procedures for suspected T1 CRCs performed between 2015 and 2021 were selected from the endoscopy databases of three tertiary centers. The main outcome was R0 resection, defined as tumor- and dysplasia-free margins (≥ 0.1 mm) for both the deep and lateral resection margins. Regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for R1/Rx resection, mainly focusing on endoscopically estimated polyp size. RESULTS: 136 patients underwent eFTR for suspected T1 CRC (median size 15 mm [IQR 13-18 mm]; 83.1 % cancer). The rates of technical success and R0 resection were 87.5 % (119/136; 95 %CI 80.9 %-92.1 %) and 79.7 % (106/136; 95 %CI 72.1 %-85.7 %), respectively. Increasing polyp size was significantly associated with R1/Rx resection (risk ratio 2.35 per 5-mm increase, 95 %CI 1.80-3.07; P < 0.001). The R0 rate was 89.9 % (80/89) for polyps ≤ 15 mm, 71.4 % (25/35) for 16-20 mm, and 11.1 % (1/9) for those > 20 mm. CONCLUSIONS: eFTR is associated with a 90 % R0 rate for T1 CRCs of ≤ 15 mm. Performing eFTR for polyps 16-20 mm should depend on access, their mobility, and the availability of alternative resection techniques. eFTR for > 20-mm polyps results in a high R1 rate and should not be recommended.