Development and Validation of the Hospital Medicine Safety Sepsis Initiative Mortality Model.

BACKGROUND: When comparing outcomes after sepsis, it is essential to account for patient case mix to make fair comparisons. We developed a model to assess risk-adjusted 30-day mortality in the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety sepsis initiative (HMS-Sepsis). RESEARCH QUESTION: Can HMS-Sepsis registry data adequately predict risk of 30-day mortality? Do performance assessments using adjusted vs unadjusted data differ? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort of community-onset sepsis hospitalizations in the HMS-Sepsis registry (April 2022-September 2023), with split derivation (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts. We fit a risk-adjustment model (HMS-Sepsis mortality model) incorporating acute physiologic, demographic, and baseline health data and assessed model performance using concordance (C) statistics, Brier scores, and comparisons of predicted vs observed mortality by deciles of risk. We compared hospital performance (first quintile, middle quintiles, fifth quintile) using observed vs adjusted mortality to understand the extent to which risk adjustment impacted hospital performance assessment. RESULTS: Among 17,514 hospitalizations from 66 hospitals during the study period, 12,260 hospitalizations (70%) were used for model derivation and 5,254 hospitalizations (30%) were used for model validation. Thirty-day mortality for the total cohort was 19.4%. The final model included 13 physiologic variables, two physiologic interactions, and 16 demographic and chronic health variables. The most significant variables were age, metastatic solid tumor, temperature, altered mental status, and platelet count. The model C statistic was 0.82 for the derivation cohort, 0.81 for the validation cohort, and ≥ 0.78 for all subgroups assessed. Overall calibration error was 0.0%, and mean calibration error across deciles of risk was 1.5%. Standardized mortality ratios yielded different assessments than observed mortality for 33.9% of hospitals. INTERPRETATION: The HMS-Sepsis mortality model showed strong discrimination and adequate calibration and reclassified one-third of hospitals to a different performance category from unadjusted mortality. Based on its strong performance, the HMS-Sepsis mortality model can aid in fair hospital benchmarking, assessment of temporal changes, and observational causal inference analysis.

The emergency department trigger tool: Multicenter trigger query validation.

OBJECTIVES: We previously described derivation and validation of the emergency department trigger tool (EDTT) for adverse event (AE) detection. As the first step in our multicenter study of the tool, we validated our computerized screen for triggers against manual review, establishing our use of this automated process for selecting records to review for AEs. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study of visits to three urban, academic EDs over 18 months by patients ≥ 18 years old. We reviewed 912 records: 852 with at least one of 34 triggers found by the query and 60 records with none. Two first-level reviewers per site each manually screened for triggers. After completion, computerized query results were revealed, and reviewers could revise their findings. Second-level reviewers arbitrated discrepancies. We compare automated versus manual screening by positive and negative predictive values (PPVs, NPVs), present population trigger frequencies, proportions of records triggered, and how often manual ratings were changed to conform with the query. RESULTS: Trigger frequencies ranged from common (>25%) to rare (1/1000) were comparable at U.S. sites and slightly lower at the Canadian site. Proportions of triggered records ranged from 31% to 49.4%. Overall query PPV was 95.4%; NPV was 99.2%. PPVs for individual trigger queries exceeded 90% for 28-31 triggers/site and NPVs were >90% for all but three triggers at one site. Inter-rater reliability was excellent, with disagreement on manual screening results less than 5% of the time. Overall, reviewers amended their findings 1.5% of the time when discordant with query findings, more often when the query was positive than when negative (47% vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS: The EDTT trigger query performed very well compared to manual review. With some expected variability, trigger frequencies were similar across sites and proportions of triggered records ranged 31%-49%. This demonstrates the feasibility and generalizability of implementing the EDTT query, providing a solid foundation for testing the triggers' utility in detecting AEs.

Emergency Department Utilization and Readmissions Following Major Surgery: A Retrospective Study of Medicare Data.

BACKGROUND: Reliable strategies for reducing postoperative readmissions remain elusive. As the emergency department (ED) is a frequent source of post-operative admissions, we investigated whether hospitals with high readmission rates also have high rates of post-discharge ED visits and high rates of readmission once an ED visit occurs. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,947,621 Medicare beneficiaries undergoing 1 of 5 common procedures in 2,894 hospitals between 2008 and 2011. We stratified hospitals into quintiles based on risk-standardized, 30-day post-discharge readmission rates (RSRR) and then compared rates of post-discharge ED visits, proportion readmitted from the ED, and readmissions within 7 days of ED discharge across these quintiles. RESULTS: RSRR varied widely across extremes of hospital quintiles (3.9% to 17.5%). Hospitals with either very low or very high RSRR had modest differences in rates of ED visits (12.4% versus 14.6%). In contrast, the proportion readmitted from the ED was nearly 3 times greater in Hospitals with very high RSRR compared with those with very low RSRR (12% versus 32.2%). These findings were consistent across all procedures. Importantly, hospitals with a low proportion readmitted from the ED did not exhibit an increased rate of readmission within 7 days of ED discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Although hospitals experience similar rates of ED visits following major surgery, some EDs and their affiliated surgeons and health system may deliver care preventing readmissions without an increased short-term risk of readmission following ED discharge. Reducing 30-day readmissions requires greater attention to the coordination of care delivered in the ED.

Novel Quality Indicators for Radiologists Interpreting Abdominopelvic CT Images: Risk-Adjusted Outcomes Among Emergency Department Patients With Right Lower Quadrant Pain.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether individual radiologists are predictive of important relevant health outcomes among emergency department (ED) patients undergoing abdominopelvic CT for right lower quadrant pain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-institution retrospective cohort study included 2169 patients undergoing abdominopelvic CT for right lower quadrant pain in the ED from February 1, 2012, through August 31, 2016. CT examinations were interpreted by 15 radiologists (four emergency, 11 abdominal) who each reported on more than 70 CT examinations in the cohort. After risk adjustment for covariates thought to influence outcome, including baseline risk (demographics, 30 Elixhauser comorbidities, number of previous ED visits), clinical factors (vital signs, triage and pain scores, laboratory data), and system factors (time of CT, resident involvement, attending physician experience), multivariable models were built to analyze the effect of individual radiologists on four important health outcomes: hospital admission (primary outcome), readmission within 30 days, abdominal surgery, and image-guided percutaneous aspiration or drainage. RESULTS: Radiologists had a mean experience of 14 years (range, 2-36 years) and read a mean of 145 CT examinations in the study cohort (range, 73-253 examinations). Unadjusted event rates across the 15 radiologists were 38-55% (admission), 11-21% (readmission), 10-26% (surgery), and 0-3% (aspiration or drainage). After risk adjustment, individual radiologists were not a significant multivariable predictor of hospital admission, readmission within 30 days, abdominal surgery, or image-guided abdominal percutaneous aspiration or drainage (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Individual radiologists were indistinguishable both within group and between group by emergency and abdominal specialization for the prediction of major patient outcomes after abdominopelvic CT performed for right lower quadrant pain in the ED.

Validation of a tool predicting important findings on computed tomography among Crohn's disease patients.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are frequently subjected to computed tomography (CT) in the emergency department (ED). This young population is at higher risk of malignancy from radiation exposure. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate a decision tool predicting complications (perforation, abscess or other serious finding) on imaging at two sites. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of CT outcomes among patients with CD with ED visits at two tertiary care centers. Inclusion criteria were a CT of the abdomen/pelvis with contrast and complete lab data (erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP)) within 24 hours of arrival at the University of Michigan (UM) (2012-2013) and the University of Pittsburgh (UPMC) (2009-2012). Sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), miss rate and CT avoidance rate were calculated. RESULTS: At UPMC (n = 210), the tool had a sensitivity of 88.9% and NPV of 98.0%, potentially saving 47.1% from CT with a miss rate of 1.0%. At UM (n = 248), the tool had a sensitivity of 90.9% and NPV of 96.0%, saving 40.3% from CT with a miss rate of 1.6%. CONCLUSION: A decision tool using CRP and ESR predicting CT outcomes among CD patients performed well in an external validation, allowing providers to forgo CT use with a low miss rate.

CT Pulmonary Angiography: Using Decision Rules in the Emergency Department.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the appropriateness of utilization and diagnostic yields of CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA), comparing two commonly applied decision rules, the pulmonary embolism (PE) rule-out criteria (PERC) and the modified Wells criteria (mWells), in the emergency department (ED) setting. METHODS: Institutional review board approval was obtained for this HIPAA-compliant, prospective-cohort, academic single-center study. Six hundred two consecutive adult ED patients undergoing CTPA for suspected PE formed the study population. The outcome was positive or negative for PE by CTPA and at 6-month follow-up. PERC and mWells scores were calculated. A positive PERC score was defined as meeting one or more criteria and a positive mWells score as >4. The percentage of CT pulmonary angiographic examinations that could have been avoided and the diagnostic yield of CTPA using PERC, mWells, and PERC applied to a negative mWells score were calculated. RESULTS: The diagnostic yield of CTPA was 10% (61 of 602). By applying PERC, mWells, and PERC to negative mWells score, 17.6% (106 of 602), 45% (273 of 602), and 17.1% (103 of 602) of CT pulmonary angiographic examinations, respectively, could have been avoided. The diagnostic yield in PERC-positive patients was higher than in mWells-positive patients (10% [59 of 602] vs 8% [49 of 602], P < .0001). Among PERC-negative and mWells-negative patients, the diagnostic yields for PE were 1.9% (2 of 106) and 4% (12 of 273), respectively (P = .004). The diagnostic yield of a negative PERC score applied to a negative mWells score was 1.9% (2 of 103). CONCLUSIONS: The use of PERC in the ED has the potential to significantly reduce the utilization of CTPA and misses fewer cases of PE compared with mWells, and it is therefore a more efficient decision tool.

Emergency department visits after surgery are common for Medicare patients, suggesting opportunities to improve care.

Considerable attention is being paid to hospital readmission as a marker of poor postdischarge care coordination. However, little is known about another potential marker: emergency department (ED) use. We examined ED visits for Medicare patients within thirty days of discharge for six common inpatient surgeries. We found that these visits were widespread and showed extensive variation across facilities. For example, 17.3 percent of these patients experienced at least one ED visit within the postdischarge period, and 4.4 percent of patients had multiple ED visits. Among those patients who were readmitted, 56.5 percent were readmitted from the ED. There was substantial variation-as much as fourfold-in hospital-level ED use for these patients across all six procedures. The variation might signify a failure in upstream coordination of care and therefore might represent a novel hospital quality indicator. In addition, the postdischarge ED visit is an opportunity to ensure that care is properly coordinated and is the last best chance to avoid preventable readmissions.