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OBJECTIVES: Develop an endometrial cancer risk prediction model and externally validate it for UK primary care use. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The UK Biobank was used for model development and a linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) and secondary care (HES), mortality (ONS) and cancer register (NRCAS) dataset was used for external validation. POPULATION: Women aged 45-60 years with no history of endometrial cancer or hysterectomy. METHODS: Model development was performed using a flexible parametric survival model and stepwise backward selection aiming to minimise the Akaike information criterion. Model performance on external validation was assessed through flexible calibration plots, calculation of the expected to observed ratio and C-statistic and decision curve analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Endometrial cancer diagnosis within 1-10 years of the index date. RESULTS: Model development included 222 031 women (902 incident endometrial cancer cases) and external validation 3 094 371 women (8585 endometrial cancer cases). The final model (with equation provided) incorporated age, body mass index, waist circumference, age at menarche, menopause and last birth, hormone replacement, tamoxifen and oral contraceptive pill use, type 2 diabetes, smoking and family history of bowel cancer. It was well calibrated on external validation (calibration slope 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.17, E/O 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), with moderate/good discrimination (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.69-0.70) and had improved net benefit compared with previously developed models. CONCLUSIONS: The Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women model (PRECISION), using easily measurable anthropometric, reproductive, personal and family history, accurately quantifies a woman's 10-year risk of endometrial cancer. Its use could determine eligibility for primary endometrial cancer prevention trials and for targeted resource allocation in UK general practices.
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BACKGROUND: There are limited data comparing outcomes of patients with previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) presenting with stable angina who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to either a saphenous vein grafts (SVG) or a chronic total occlusion (CTO) in the native coronary arteries. We compared clinical characteristics and outcomes of these two groups in a national cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We formed a longitudinal cohort (2007-2014; n = 11,132) of patients who underwent SVG-PCI (group 1; n = 8619) or CTO-PCI in native arteries (group 2; n = 2513) in the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database. Median age was 68 years in both groups, but patients in group 2 were less likely to be female, had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and previous myocardial infarction, as well as worsened angina and breathlessness, but history of prior stroke, renal diseases, and the presence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction were similar to group 1. Following multivariable analysis, no significant difference in mortality was observed during index hospital admission (odds ratio [OR], 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-4.58; P=.29), at 30 days (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 0.99-3.3; P=.05), and 1 year (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.85-1.44; P=.43), nor was a significant difference found in in-hospital MACE rates (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.85-2.19; P=.19). However, CTO-PCI was associated with more procedural complications (OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.38-3.47; P<.01) and vessel perforation (OR, 4.82; 95% CI, 2.80-8.28; P<.01) as compared with the SVG-PCI group. Risk of target-vessel revascularization at 1 year was similar (SVG-PCI 5.6% vs CTO-PCI 6.9%; P=.08). CONCLUSION: In this national cohort, CTO-PCI was performed in higher-risk patients, and was associated with more procedural complications but similar short-term or long-term mortality and in-hospital MACE.