The Cost-Effectiveness of Hyperlipidemia Medication in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review.

Hyperlipidemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease - the leading cause of death globally. Increased understanding of the cost-effectiveness of hyperlipidemia treatment in low- and middle-income countries can guide approaches to hyperlipidemia management in resource-limited environments. We conducted a systematic review of the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of hyperlipidemia medication treatment in low- and middle-income countries using studies published between January 2010 and April 2020. We abstracted study details, including study design, treatment setting, intervention type, health metrics, costs standardized to constant 2019 US dollars, and cost-effectiveness measures including average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Comparisons across studies suggested that treatment via polypill is generally more cost-effective than statin-only therapy, and that primary prevention is more cost-effective than secondary prevention. Treating hyperlipidemia at a threshold of 5.7 mmol/l comes at a higher cost per disability-adjusted life-years averted than at a threshold of 6.2 mmol/l. Most pharmacological treatment strategies for hyperlipidemia were found to be cost-effective in most of the examined low- and middle-income countries.

Assessing costs of a hypertension program in primary care: evidence from the HEARTS program in Mexico / Evaluación de los costos de un programa de hipertensión en la atención primaria: datos del programa HEARTS en México / Avaliação dos custos de um programa de hipertensão na atenção primária: evidências do programa HEARTS no México

ABSTRACT Objective. In 2021, Mexico launched the HEARTS program to improve the prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 20 primary care facilities in the states of Chiapas and Yucatán. This study projects the annual cost of program implementation and discusses budgetary implications for scaling up the program. Methods. We obtained district-level data on treatment protocols, medication costs, and other resources required to prevent and treat CVD. We used the HEARTS Costing Tool to estimate total and per-patient costs. A "partial implementation" scenario calculated the costs of implementing HEARTS if existing pharmacological treatment protocols are left in place. The second scenario, "full implementation," examined costs if programs use HEARTS pharmacological protocol. Results. Respectively in the partial and full implementation scenarios, total annual costs to implement and operate HEARTS were $260 023 ($32.1 per patient/year) and $255 046 ($31.5 per patient/year) in Chiapas, and $1 000 059 ($41.3 per patient/year) and $1 013 835 ($43.3 per patient/year) in Yucatán. In Chiapas, adopting HEARTS standardized treatment protocols resulted in a 9.7 % reduction in annual medication expenditures relative to maintaining status-quo treatment approaches. In Yucatán, adoption was $12 875 more expensive, in part because HEARTS hypertension treatment regimens were more intensive than status quo regimens. Conclusion. HEARTS in the Americas offers a standardized strategy to treating and controlling CVD risk factors. In Mexico, approaches that may lead to improved program affordability include adoption of the recommended HEARTS treatment protocols with preferred medications and task shifting of services from physicians to nurses and other providers.

RESUMEN Objetivo. En el año 2021, México puso en marcha el programa HEARTS para mejorar la prevención y el control de los factores de riesgo de las enfermedades cardiovasculares en 20 centros de atención primaria en los estados de Chiapas y Yucatán. En este estudio se estima el costo anual de la ejecución del programa y se abordan las implicaciones presupuestarias para su ampliación. Métodos. Se obtuvieron datos a nivel de distrito sobre los protocolos de tratamiento, los costos de los medicamentos y otros recursos necesarios para prevenir y tratar las enfermedades cardiovasculares. Se empleó la herramienta HEARTS para el cálculo de costos con el fin de estimar los costos totales y por paciente. En una situación de "implementación parcial", se calcularon los costos de ejecutar HEARTS si se mantienen los protocolos de tratamiento farmacológico existentes. En un segundo escenario de "implementación completa", se examinaron los costos de los programas que emplean el protocolo farmacológico de HEARTS. Resultados. En los escenarios de implementación parcial y total, respectivamente, los costos anuales totales para implementar y poner en marcha el paquete de medidas HEARTS fueron de US$ 260 023 (US$ 32,1 por paciente al año) y US$ 255 046 (US$ 31,5 por paciente al año) en Chiapas, y US$ 1 000 059 (US$ 41,3 por paciente al año) y US$ 1 013 835 (US$ 43,3 por paciente al año) en Yucatán. En Chiapas, la adopción de los protocolos de tratamiento estandarizados de HEARTS supuso una reducción de 9,7% en los gastos anuales de medicamentos en comparación con el mantenimiento de los enfoques de tratamiento ya establecidos. En Yucatán, la adopción fue US$ 12 875 más cara, en parte porque los esquemas de tratamiento para la hipertensión que se proponen en HEARTS fueron más intensivos que los esquemas ya establecidos. Conclusiones. El programa HEARTS en la Región de las Américas ofrece una estrategia estandarizada para tratar y controlar los factores de riesgo de las enfermedades cardiovasculares. En México, los enfoques que pueden conducir a una mayor asequibilidad del programa incluyen la adopción de los protocolos de tratamiento recomendados de HEARTS con medicamentos de preferencia y la distribución de tareas de los servicios para que pasen del personal médico al personal de enfermería y otros prestadores de atención de salud.

RESUMO Objetivo. Em 2021, o México lançou o programa HEARTS para melhorar a prevenção e o controle dos fatores de risco de doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) em 20 unidades básicas de saúde nos estados de Chiapas e Yucatán. Este estudo projeta o custo anual de implementação do programa e discute as implicações orçamentárias para sua expansão. Métodos. Foram obtidos dados de nível distrital sobre protocolos de tratamento, custos de medicamentos e outros recursos necessários para prevenir e tratar a DCV. A ferramenta de cálculo de custos do HEARTS foi usada para estimar os custos totais e por paciente. Um cenário de "implementação parcial" calculou os custos de implementação do HEARTS se os protocolos de farmacoterapia existentes forem mantidos em vigor. O segundo cenário, "implementação plena", examinou os custos se os programas utilizassem o protocolo de farmacoterapia do HEARTS. Resultados. Respectivamente nos cenários de implementação parcial e plena, os custos anuais totais para implementar e operar o HEARTS foram de US$ 260 023 (US$ 32,1 por paciente/ano) e US$ 255 046 (US$ 31,5 por paciente/ano) em Chiapas, e $1 000 059 (US$ 41,3 por paciente/ano) e US$ 1 013 835 (US$ 43,30 por paciente/ano) em Yucatán. Em Chiapas, a adoção de protocolos de tratamento padronizados do HEARTS resultou em uma redução de 9,7% nos gastos anuais com medicamentos em relação à manutenção das condutas atuais (status quo). Em Yucatán, a adoção foi US$ 12 875 mais cara, em parte porque os regimes de tratamento de hipertensão do HEARTS eram mais intensivos do que os regimes atuais. Conclusão. A HEARTS nas Américas oferece uma estratégia padronizada para tratar e controlar os fatores de risco de DCV. No México, abordagens que podem levar a uma melhor acessibilidade do programa incluem a adoção dos protocolos de tratamento recomendados do HEARTS com medicamentos preferidos e a realocação de tarefas de médicos para enfermeiros e outros profissionais.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries / Argumentos de la economía de la salud para ampliar las medidas de control de la hipertensión de la iniciativa HEARTS de la OMS en los países de ingresos medianos y bajos / Ampliação do pacote de controle da hipertensão OMS-HEARTS em países de baixa e média renda: argumentos a partir da perspectiva da economia em saúde

ABSTRACT Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average <US$ 5 per patient per year in the public sector. This health economic evidence will make a compelling case for government ownership and financial support for national scale hypertension control programs.

RESUMEN En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de <US$ 5 por paciente al año en el sector público. Estos datos del ámbito de la economía de la salud serán argumentos convincentes para que los gobiernos se involucren en los programas de control de la hipertensión a escala nacional y les brinden apoyo financiero.

RESUMO Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de <US$ 18 por paciente por ano no setor público. Estas evidências do campo da economia em saúde serão um argumento convincente para que os governos se responsabilizem por programas de controle de hipertensão em escala nacional e os dotem de recursos financeiros.

Disease and demography: a systems-dynamic cohort-component population model to assess the implications of disease-specific mortality targets.

INTRODUCTION: The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals include the objective of reducing premature mortality from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one-third by 2030. Accomplishing this objective has demographic implications with relevance for countries' health systems and costs. However, evidence on the system-wide implications of NCD targets is limited. METHODS: We developed a cohort-component model to estimate demographic change based on user-defined disease-specific mortality trajectories. The model accounts for ageing over 101 annual age cohorts, disaggregated by sex and projects changes in the size and structure of the population. We applied this model to the context of Bangladesh, using the model to simulate demographic outlooks for Bangladesh for 2015-2030 using three mortality scenarios. The 'status quo' scenario entails that the disease-specific mortality profile observed in 2015 applies throughout 2015-2030. The 'trend' scenario adopts age-specific, sex-specific and disease-specific mortality rate trajectories projected by WHO for the region. The 'target' scenario entails a one-third reduction in the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases between age 30 and 70 by 2030. RESULTS: The status quo, trend and target scenarios projected 178.9, 179.7 and 180.2 million population in 2030, respectively. The cumulative number of deaths during 2015-2030 was estimated at 17.4, 16.2 and 15.6 million for each scenario, respectively. During 2015-2030, the target scenario would avert a cumulative 1.73 million and 584 000 all-cause deaths compared with the status quo and trend scenarios, respectively. Male life expectancy was estimated to increase from 71.10 to 73.47 years in the trend scenario and to 74.38 years in the target scenario; female life expectancy was estimated to increase from 73.68 to 75.34 years and 76.39 years in the trend and target scenarios, respectively. CONCLUSION: The model describes the demographic implications of NCD prevention and control targets, estimating the potential increase in life expectancy associated with achieving key NCD reduction targets. The results can be used to inform future health system needs and to support planning for increased healthcare coverage in countries.

Revisiting the association between worldwide implementation of the MPOWER package and smoking prevalence, 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: We revisited the association between progress in MPOWER implementation from 2008 to 2016 and smoking prevalence from 2009 to 2017 and offered an in-depth understanding of differential outcomes for various country groups. METHODS: We used data from six rounds of the WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic and calculated a composite MPOWER Score for each country in each period. We categorised the countries in four initial conditions based on their tobacco control preparedness measured by MPOWER score in 2008 and smoking burden measured by age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence in 2006: (1) High MPOWER - high prevalence (HM-HP). (2) High MPOWER - low prevalence (HM-LP). (3) Low MPOWER - high prevalence (LM-HP). (4) Low MPOWER - low prevalence (LM-LP). We estimated the association of age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence with MPOWER Score and cigarette tax rates using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models including both year and country fixed effects. RESULTS: A unit increase of the MPOWER Score was associated with 0.39 and 0.50 percentage points decrease in adult daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and HM-LP countries, respectively. When tax rate was controlled for separately from MPOWE, an increase in tax rate showed a negative association with daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and LM-LP countries, while the MPOWE Score showed a negative association for all initial condition country groups except for LM-LP countries. CONCLUSION: A decade after the introduction of the WHO MPOWER package, we observed that the countries with higher initial tobacco control preparedness and higher smoking burden were able to reduce the adult daily smoking prevalence significantly.

Introducing the PLOS special collection of economic cases for NCD prevention and control: A global perspective.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease, are responsible for seven out of every 10 deaths worldwide. While NCDs are associated with aging in high-income countries, this representation is often misleading. Over one-third of the 41 million annual deaths from NCDs occur prematurely, defined as under 70 years of age. Most of those deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where surveillance, treatment, and care of NCDs are often inadequate. In addition to high health and social costs, the economic costs imposed by such high numbers of excess early deaths impede economic development and contribute to global and national inequity. In higher-income countries, NCDs and their risks continue to push health care costs higher. The burden of NCDs is strongly intertwined with economic conditions for good and for harm. Understanding the multiple ways they are connected-through risk factor exposures, access to quality health care, and financial protection among others-will determine which countries are able to improve the healthy longevity of their populations and slow growth in health expenditure particularly in the face of aging populations. The aim of this Special Collection is to provide new evidence to spur those actions.

Consumption displacement in households with noncommunicable diseases in Bangladesh.

The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including treatment costs and income and productivity losses, is a growing concern in developing countries, where NCD medical expenditure may offset consumption of other essential commodities. This study examines the role of NCDs in household resource allocation in Bangladesh. We use the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to obtain expenditure data on 11 household expenditure categories and 12 food expenditure sub-categories for 12,240 households. Household NCD status was determined through self-report of at least one of the six major NCDs within the household-heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, kidney diseases, asthma, and cancer. We estimated unadjusted and regression-adjusted differences in household expenditure shares between NCD and non-NCD households. We further investigated how consumption of different food sub-categories is related to NCD status, distinguishing between household economic levels. The medical expenditure share was estimated to be 59% higher for NCD households than non-NCD households, and NCD households had lower expenditure shares on food, clothing, hygiene, and energy. Regression results indicated that presence of NCDs was associated with lower relative expenditure on clothing and housing in all economic subgroups, and with lower expenditure on food among marginally poor households. Having an NCD was significantly associated with higher household spending on tobacco and higher-calorie foods such as sugar, beverages, meat, dairy, and fruit, and with lower spending on fish, vegetables, and legumes. The findings indicate a link between NCDs and the possibility of adverse economic effects on the household by highlighting the potential displacement effect on household consumption that might occur through higher medical expenditure and lower spending on essentials. The findings might also point to a need for raising awareness about the link between NCDs and diet in Bangladesh.

Noncommunicable disease-attributable medical expenditures, household financial stress and impoverishment in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low-income countries can entail large out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenditures, which can increase the likelihood of household impoverishment and perpetuate the poverty cycle. This paper studies the implications of NCDs on household medical expenditure, household financial stress (e.g. selling assets or borrowing for treatment financing), catastrophic OOP expenditure, and impoverishment in Bangladesh. METHODS: We used self-reported health status and household expenditure survey data from 12,240 households in Bangladesh. NCD-afflicted households were defined by presence of at least one of the following conditions within the household - heart disease, hypertension, asthma, diabetes, cancer, or kidney disease. Using linear regression models, we examined whether NCD households incur more medical expenditures, allocate a larger budget share on medical expenditures, and have greater probability of experiencing catastrophic medical expenditure or financial stress from OOP spending than non-NCD households. Finally, using survey weights, we extrapolated how NCD-attributable medical expenditure can result in impoverishment and downward movement in net consumption status at the population level. RESULTS: NCD-afflicted households allocate a greater share of household expenditures for medical care than households without NCDs, and their probability of incurring catastrophic medical expenditure is higher by 6.7 percentage points compared to the households with no reported conditions. NCD households are 85% more likely to sell assets or borrow from informal sources to finance treatment cost. Household spending on NCD care is estimated to account for the impoverishment of 0.66 million persons in Bangladesh in 2010, and for reducing the net consumption status of 7.63 million persons on both sides of the poverty line after accounting for NCD-related OOP expenditures. CONCLUSION: NCD-related household medical expenditure is associated with experiencing financial distress and aggravating poverty in Bangladesh.

Does State Medicaid Coverage of Smoking Cessation Treatments Affect Quitting?

OBJECTIVE: Cigarette smoking and smoking-related diseases disproportionately affect low-income populations. Health insurance coverage of smoking cessation treatments is increasingly used to encourage quitting. We assess the relationship between state Medicaid coverage of smoking cessation treatments and past-year quitting in adult Medicaid beneficiaries. DATA SOURCES: 2009-2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS); 2008-2013 indicators of state Medicaid coverage of smoking cessation treatments. STUDY DESIGN: A triple-differencing specification based on differences in Medicaid cessation coverage policies across states as well as within-state differences between Medicaid beneficiaries and a counterfactual group of low-income adults not covered by Medicaid. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Individual-level NHIS data with restricted geographical identifiers were merged with state-year Medicaid coverage indicators. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Combined coverage of both cessation counseling and medications in state Medicaid programs was associated with increased quitting, with an estimated mean increase in past-year quitting of 3.0 percentage points in covered Medicaid beneficiaries relative to persons without coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Combined coverage of both smoking cessation counseling and medication by state Medicaid programs could help reduce cigarette smoking among Medicaid beneficiaries.

Changes in cigarette prices, affordability, and brand-tier consumption after a tobacco tax increase in Thailand: Evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys, 2009 and 2011.

Despite the 2009 implementation of a tobacco tax increase in Thailand, smoking rates remained unchanged between 2009 and 2011. Prior evidence has linked cigarette tax increases to compensatory behaviours aimed at lowering the cost of smoking, such as switching to lower-priced cigarette brands. Using data from 2009 and 2011 Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in Thailand, we estimated unadjusted changes in cigarette prices paid, cigarette affordability, and consumption of cigarettes in three price categories classified as upper-, middle-, and lower-priced brand tiers (or price tertiles). We used ordered logit regression to analyse the correlates of price-tier choice and to estimate the change in price-tier consumption adjusted for demographic and region characteristics. Between 2009 and 2011, real cigarette prices increased, but the affordability of cigarettes remained unchanged overall. There was a significant reduction in the consumption of cigarette brands in the top price-tier overall, accompanied by increases in the consumption of brands in the bottom and middle price-tiers, depending on the region. Adjusted estimates from the logit models indicate that, on average, the proportion of smokers selecting brands from upper- and middle price-tiers decreased while consumption of lower price-tier brands increased during the study period. The estimated shifts in consumption from more expensive to less expensive cigarette brands and the overall lack of change in cigarette affordability in Thailand between 2009 and 2011 are both factors that may have contributed to the observed lack of change in smoking rates after the 2009 tax increase.

Effect of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in China: a duration analysis.

BACKGROUND: China is the world's largest producer and consumer of cigarettes. The status of tobacco as both a contributor to China's economy and a liability for the health of its population may complicate the use of taxes for addressing smoking in the country. Understanding how cigarette prices affect transitions in smoking behaviour in China can increase understanding of how China's high smoking rates can be influenced by tax policy. METHODS: In order to estimate the effect of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in China, we construct pseudo-longitudinal samples for duration analysis using data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey China 2010. We use the historical variation in prices representative of 4 China regions over a 20-year period to identify the average price effect on the hazards of initiation and cessation while controlling for unobserved fixed and time-varying region characteristics. FINDINGS: We find that initiation rates fall in response to higher prices (with a price elasticity of initiation estimated at -0.95 for men and -1.07 overall). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of prices on smoking in China is likely to occur through averting initiation over time. At the population level, cessation behaviour may be less responsive to price increases as the wide range of cigarette prices in China may provide relatively high opportunity for switching to lower priced brands.

Smokeless tobacco use in India: Role of prices and advertising.

Although the primary form of tobacco use worldwide is cigarette smoking, the large majority of users in India consume smokeless forms of tobacco. There is little evidence on the role of policy-related factors in shaping the demand for smokeless tobacco (ST) in India. This study evaluates the relationship between two such factors, prices and advertising, and ST use in India, using data on 67,737 individuals from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009. We find that ST advertising is more likely to influence ST consumption in women than men, while men are more likely to respond to changes in ST price. We estimate that among adult males in India, the total price elasticity of ST demand is -0.212, which is close to estimates reported for males in the U.S. We do not find strong direct evidence on the economic substitutability or complementarity of smoked and smokeless products. However, the positive association between former smoking and current smokeless use may point to temporal substitutability at the individual level. The findings have implications on the relative effectiveness of policy tools across genders in India - increasing the prices of ST products may discourage ST use particularly among men, and advertising restrictions may play a relatively larger role in the consumption behavior of women in India.

Approaches for controlling illicit tobacco trade--nine countries and the European Union.

An estimated 11.6% of the world cigarette market is illicit, representing more than 650 billion cigarettes a year and $40.5 billion in lost revenue. Illicit tobacco trade refers to any practice related to distributing, selling, or buying tobacco products that is prohibited by law, including tax evasion (sale of tobacco products without payment of applicable taxes), counterfeiting, disguising the origin of products, and smuggling. Illicit trade undermines tobacco prevention and control initiatives by increasing the accessibility and affordability of tobacco products, and reduces government tax revenue streams. The World Health Organization (WHO) Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, signed by 54 countries, provides tools for addressing illicit trade through a package of regulatory and governing principles. As of May 2015, only eight countries had ratified or acceded to the illicit trade protocol, with an additional 32 needed for it to become international law (i.e., legally binding). Data from multiple international sources were analyzed to evaluate the 10 most commonly used approaches for addressing illicit trade and to summarize differences in implementation across select countries and the European Union (EU). Although the WHO illicit trade protocol defines shared global standards for addressing illicit trade, countries are guided by their own legal and enforcement frameworks, leading to a diversity of approaches employed across countries. Continued adoption of the methods outlined in the WHO illicit trade protocol might improve the global capacity to reduce illicit trade in tobacco products.

A duration analysis of the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in developing countries.

This study evaluates the impact of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation among adults in two pooled samples of 6 low- to lower-middle income countries (LMICs) and 8 upper-middle income countries (UMICs). We find that, while higher prices reduce smoking across the board, this reduction occurs through different behavioral mechanisms in lower versus higher income countries. Specifically, cigarette prices reduce smoking rates by deterring initiation in LMICs while in UMICs they act primarily by promoting cessation. Because current smoking rates are relatively lower in LMICs and relatively higher in UMICs, this differential mechanism underscores the adaptability of tobacco prices as a tool for regulating tobacco use across countries at different levels of development; it shows that prices can be used to sustain the relatively low rates of smoking in LMICs by preventing entry of new smokers, and can reduce the relatively high rates of smoking in UMICs by encouraging exit of existing smokers. Using split-population duration models and controlling for fixed and time-varying unobserved country characteristics, we estimate that the price elasticity of initiation in LMICs is -0.74 and the price elasticity of cessation in UMICs is 0.51.

Cigarette prices and smoking prevalence after a tobacco tax increase--Turkey, 2008 and 2012.

Raising the price of tobacco products has been shown to reduce tobacco consumption in the United States and other high-income countries, and evidence of this impact has been growing for low- and middle-income countries as well. Turkey is a middle-income country surveyed by the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) twice in a 4-year period, in 2008 and 2012. During this time, the country introduced a policy raising its Special Consumption Tax on Tobacco and implemented a comprehensive tobacco control program banning smoking in public places, banning advertising, and introducing graphic health warnings. The higher tobacco tax took effect in early 2010, allowing sufficient time for subsequent changes in prices and smoking to be observed by the time of the 2012 GATS. This report uses data from GATS Turkey to examine how cigarette prices changed after the 2010 tax increase, describe the temporally associated changes in smoking prevalence, and learn whether this smoking prevalence changed more in some demographic groups than others. From 2008 to 2012, the average price paid for cigarettes increased by 42.1%, cigarettes became less affordable, and smoking prevalence decreased by 14.6%. The largest reduction in smoking was observed among persons with lower socioeconomic status (SES), highlighting the potential role of tax policy in reducing health disparities across socioeconomic groups.

Exploring the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking among adults: a cross-country study of low- and middle-income nations.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the relationship between cigarette prices and adult smoking in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is relatively limited. This study offers new descriptive evidence on this relationship using data from a set of 13 LMICs. METHODS: We use Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) cross-country data from approximately 200,000 participants aged 15 and older. Estimates on the relationship between prices and adult smoking were obtained from logit models of smoking participation and ordinary least squares models of conditional cigarette demand. RESULTS: Higher prices were associated with lower demand across countries, in terms of both smoking prevalence and daily number of cigarettes smoked among smokers. Our estimates suggest that the total price elasticity of cigarette demand in LMICs is approximately -0.53. We find that higher socioeconomic status (SES), represented through wealth and education effects is associated with lower chance of smoking overall, but among existing smokers, it may be associated with a larger number of cigarettes smoked. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for a set of individual demographic and country characteristics, cigarette prices retain a significant role in shaping cigarette demand across LMICs. Because higher SES is associated with a reduced chance of smoking overall but also with increased daily consumption among current smokers, optimal tobacco tax policies in LMICs may face an added need to accommodate to shifting SES structures within the populations of these countries.

The impact of cigarette excise taxes on smoking cessation rates from 1994 to 2010 in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine.

INTRODUCTION: We studied the impact of cigarette excise taxes on the rates of smoking cessation with data from 3 neighboring Eastern European countries (Russia, Poland, and Ukraine) during the post-transitional period of the 1990s and 2000s. METHODS: Using Global Adult Tobacco Survey data from 11,106 former and current smokers, we estimated the impact of cigarette taxes on the smokers' likelihood of quitting over time. We first transformed the survey's cross-sectional data into a pseudo-longitudinal format in which the average observation period for individual subjects was 12 years and then employed duration analysis. RESULTS: We estimated that a 10% increase in cigarette taxes during the observation period increased the probability of smoking cessation among smokers in these countries by 1.6% to 2.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette tax increases have played a significant role in driving smoking cessation in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine. Further increases in cigarette excise taxes are likely to encourage further cessation and thus impact the prevalence of smoking in the region.

Who quits? An overview of quitters in low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Using the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys from 14 primarily low- and middle-income countries, we describe the association between the probability of being a recent quitter and a number of demographic and policy-relevant factors such as exposure to warning labels, work-site smoking bans, antismoking media messaging, tobacco marketing, and current cigarette and bidi prices. METHODS: Logistic regressions were used to examine the potential correlates of recent quitting and recent quit attempts. RESULTS: After accounting for country-specific attributes in pooled analyses, we found that higher rates of exposure to work-site smoking bans are associated with higher odds of being a quitter (odds ratio [OR] with 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13 [1.04, 1.22]). Exposure to antismoking media messaging (OR with 95% CI = 1.08 [1.00, 1.17]), work-site smoking bans (OR with 95% CI = 1.11 [0.99, 1.26]), and warning labels (OR with 95% CI = 1.03 [1.01, 1.05]); cigarette prices (OR with 95% CI = 1.01 [1.00, 1.02]), and bidi prices (OR with 95% CI =1.17 [1.11, 1.22]) are factors associated with higher odds of recent quit attempts in the pooled analysis. These effects vary by country. Exposure to warning labels is found to be associated with greater likelihood of recent quitting in Egypt (OR with 95% CI = 3.20 [1.53, 6.68]), and the positive association between exposure to work-site smoking bans and quitting is particularly strong for Southeast Asia (OR with 95% CI = 1.20 [1.06, 1.35]) and Asia Pacific countries (OR with 95% CI = 1.85 [0.93, 3.68]). Additionally, exposure to tobacco industry marketing is significantly associated with smaller odds of quitting in Asia Pacific (OR with 95% CI = 0.83 [0.79, 0.87]) and Latin American countries (OR with 95% CI = 0.78 [0.74, 0.82]). CONCLUSIONS: Although our results vary by country, they generally suggest that greater exposure to tobacco control polices is significantly associated with quitting.