A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial of Pediatric Cystic Fibrosis Pulmonary Exacerbations Treatment Strategies.

Rationale: Despite the high prevalence and clear morbidity of cystic fibrosis (CF) pulmonary exacerbations (PEx), there have been no published clinical trials of outpatient exacerbation management. Objectives: To assess the feasibility of a pediatric clinical trial in which treatment of mild PEx is assigned randomly to immediate oral antibiotics or tailored therapy (increased airway clearance alone with oral antibiotics added only for prespecified criteria). The outcome on which sample size was based was the proportion of tailored therapy participants who avoided oral antibiotics during the 28 days after randomization. Methods: In this randomized, open-label, pilot feasibility study at 10 U.S. sites, children 6-18 years of age with CF were enrolled at their well baseline visits and followed through their first randomized PEx. Results: One hundred twenty-one participants were enrolled, of whom 94 (78%) reported symptoms of PEx at least once; of these, 81 (86%) had at least one exacerbation that met randomization criteria, of whom 63 (78%) were randomized. Feasibility goals were met, including enrollment, early detection of symptoms of PEx, and ability to randomize. Among the 33 participants assigned to tailored therapy, 10 (30%) received oral antibiotics, while 29 of 30 (97%) assigned to immediate antibiotics received oral antibiotics. The avoidance of oral antibiotics in 70% (95% confidence interval, 54-85%) was statistically significantly different from our null hypothesis that <10% of participants assigned to the tailored therapy arm would avoid antibiotics. Conclusions: Our pilot study demonstrates that conducting a randomized trial of oral antibiotic treatment strategies for mild PEx in children with CF is feasible and that assignment to a tailored therapy arm may reduce antibiotic exposure. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04608019).

Associations between eGFR and albuminuria with right ventricular measures: the MESA-Right Ventricle study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an increased risk of pulmonary hypertension, which may lead to right ventricular (RV) pressure overload and RV dysfunction. However, the presence of subclinical changes in RV structure or function in early CKD and the influence of these changes on mortality are not well studied. We hypothesized that early CKD, as indicated by elevated albuminuria or mild reductions in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is associated with greater RV dilation and RV mass. Methods: We included 4063 participants (age 45-84 years) without baseline clinical cardiovascular disease from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. The associations of baseline creatinine-cystatin C-based eGFR and albuminuria with cardiac magnetic resonance-derived RV measures (2000-02) were examined cross-sectionally with linear regression models. Cox regression models were used to examine whether RV parameters modified the associations of eGFR and albuminuria with all-cause mortality. Results: Participants with reductions in eGFR primarily within the 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 category had smaller RV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes and stroke volume (all adjusted P-trends <.001) than those with eGFR ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2, an association that was predominantly seen in participants with albuminuria below 30 mg/g creatinine. Albuminuria was more strongly associated with death among those with lower RV volumes (P-values for interaction <.03). Conclusions: Among community-dwelling adults, reductions in eGFR primarily within the normal range were associated with smaller RV volumes and the association of albuminuria with worse survival was stronger among those with smaller RV volumes. Further studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanistic pathways that link kidney measures and RV morphology.

Automatic bronchus and artery analysis on chest computed tomography to evaluate the effect of inhaled hypertonic saline in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis in a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: SHIP-CT showed that 48-week treatment with inhaled 7% hypertonic saline (HS) reduced airway abnormalities on chest CT using the manual PRAGMA-CF method relative to isotonic saline (IS) in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis (CF). An algorithm was developed and validated to automatically measure bronchus and artery (BA) dimensions of BA-pairs on chest CT. Aim of the study was to assess the effect of HS on bronchial wall thickening and bronchial widening using the BA-analysis. METHODS: The BA-analysis (LungQ, version 2.1.0.1, Thirona, Netherlands) automatically segments the bronchial tree and identifies the segmental bronchi (G0) and distal generations (G1-G10). Dimensions of each BA-pair are measured: diameters of bronchial outer wall (Bout), bronchial inner wall (Bin), bronchial wall thickness (Bwt), and artery (A). BA-ratios are computed: Bout/A and Bin/A to detect bronchial widening and Bwt/A and Bwa/Boa (=bronchial wall area/bronchial outer area) to detect bronchial wall thickening. RESULTS: 113 baseline and 102 48-week scans of 115 SHIP-CT participants were analysed. LungQ measured at baseline and 48-weeks respectively 6,073 and 7,407 BA-pairs in the IS-group and 6,363 and 6,840 BA-pairs in the HS-group. At 48 weeks, Bwt/A (mean difference 0.011; 95%CI, 0.0017 to 0.020) and Bwa/Boa (mean difference 0.030; 95% 0.009 to 0.052) was significantly higher (worse) in the IS-group compared to the HS-group representing more severe bronchial wall thickening in the IS-group (p=0.025 and p=0.019 respectively). Bwt/A and Bwa/Boa decreased and Bin/A remained stable from baseline to 48 weeks in the HS while it declined in the IS-group (all p<0.001). There was no difference in progression of Bout/A between two treatment groups. CONCLUSION: The automatic BA-analysis showed a positive impact of inhaled HS on bronchial lumen and wall thickness, but no treatment effect on progression of bronchial widening over 48 weeks.

Palliative care referrals in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: The Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a life limiting disease with substantial symptom burden and healthcare utilization. Palliative care alleviates physical and emotional symptoms for patients with serious illness, and has been underutilized for these patients. OBJECTIVE: To characterize patients with PAH referred to palliative care and identify predictors of referral. METHODS: We conducted an observational study of adult patients enrolled in the Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry from January 2015 through June 2021, performing descriptive statistics on patient characteristics at baseline for all patients and the subset referred to palliative care. These characteristics were modeled in a backwards elimination Cox regression with time to referral to palliative care as the primary outcome. RESULTS: 92 of 1,578 patients were referred to palliative care (5.8%); 43% were referred at their last visit prior to death. Referrals were associated with increasing age per decade (hazard ratio 1.35 [95% confidence interval 1.16-1.58]), lower body mass index (hazard ratio 0.97 [95% confidence interval 0.94-0.998]), supplemental oxygen use (hazard ratio 2.01 [95% confidence interval 1.28-3.16]), parenteral prostanoid use (hazard ratio 2.88 [95% confidence interval 1.84-4.51]), and worse quality of life, measured via lower physical (hazard ratio 0.97 [95% confidence interval 0.95-0.99]) and mental (hazard ratio 0.98 [95% confidence interval 0.96-0.995]) scores on the 12-item Short Form Health Survey. CONCLUSION: Patients with PAH are infrequently referred to palliative care, even at centers of excellence. Referrals occur in sicker patients with lower quality of life scores, often close to the end of life.

The effect of inhaled hypertonic saline on lung structure in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis (SHIP-CT): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In the Saline Hypertonic in Preschoolers (SHIP) study, inhaled 7% hypertonic saline improved the lung clearance index in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis, but it remained unclear whether improvement is also seen in structural lung disease. We aimed to assess the effect of inhaled hypertonic saline on chest CT imaging in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: Children with cystic fibrosis were enrolled in this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, controlled study at 23 cystic fibrosis centres in Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Belgium, the USA, Canada, and Australia. Eligible participants were children aged 3-6 years who were able to cooperate with chest CT imaging and comply with daily nebuliser treatment. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive inhaled 2 puffs of 100 µg salbutamol followed by 4mL of either 7% hypertonic saline or 0·9% isotonic saline twice per day for 48 weeks. Randomisation was stratified by age in North America and Australia, and by age and country in Europe. Chest CTs were obtained at baseline and 48 weeks and scored using the Perth-Rotterdam Annotated Grid Morphometric Analysis for Cystic Fibrosis (PRAGMA-CF) method. The primary outcome was the difference between groups in the percentage of total lung volume occupied by abnormal airways (PRAGMA-CF %Disease) measured by chest CT at 48 weeks. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. This study is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02950883. FINDINGS: Between May 24, 2016, and Dec 18, 2019, 134 children were assessed for inclusion. 18 patients were excluded (nine had incomplete or unsuccessful chest CT at enrolment visit, two could not comply with CT training, two had acute respiratory infection, two withdrew consent, two for reasons unknown, and one was already on hypertonic saline). 116 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to hypertonic saline (n=56) or isotonic saline (n=60). 12 patients dropped out of the study (seven in the hypertonic saline group and five in the isotonic saline group). Mean PRAGMA-CF %Disease at 48 weeks was 0·88% (95% CI 0·60-1·16) in the hypertonic saline group and 1·55% (1·25-1·84) in the isotonic saline group (mean difference 0·67%, 95% CI 0·26-1·08; p=0·0092) based on a linear regression model adjusted for baseline %Disease values and baseline age. Most adverse events in both groups were rated as mild, and the most common adverse event in both groups was cough. INTERPRETATION: Inhaled hypertonic saline for 48 weeks had a positive effect on structural lung changes in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis relative to isotonic saline. This is the first demonstration of an intervention that alters structural lung disease in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis. FUNDING: Cystic Fibrosis Foundation.

Association of Dysanapsis With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Among Older Adults.

Importance: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), yet much of COPD risk remains unexplained. Objective: To determine whether dysanapsis, a mismatch of airway tree caliber to lung size, assessed by computed tomography (CT), is associated with incident COPD among older adults and lung function decline in COPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of 2 community-based samples: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study, which involved 2531 participants (6 US sites, 2010-2018) and the Canadian Cohort of Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD), which involved 1272 participants (9 Canadian sites, 2010-2018), and a case-control study of COPD: the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), which involved 2726 participants (12 US sites, 2011-2016). Exposures: Dysanapsis was quantified on CT as the geometric mean of airway lumen diameters measured at 19 standard anatomic locations divided by the cube root of lung volume (airway to lung ratio). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was COPD defined by postbronchodilator ratio of forced expired volume in the first second to vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) less than 0.70 with respiratory symptoms. Secondary outcome was longitudinal lung function. All analyses were adjusted for demographics and standard COPD risk factors (primary and secondhand tobacco smoke exposures, occupational and environmental pollutants, and asthma). Results: In the MESA Lung sample (mean [SD] age, 69 years [9 years]; 1334 women [52.7%]), 237 of 2531 participants (9.4%) had prevalent COPD, the mean (SD) airway to lung ratio was 0.033 (0.004), and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -33 mL/y (31 mL/y). Of 2294 MESA Lung participants without prevalent COPD, 98 (4.3%) had incident COPD at a median of 6.2 years. Compared with participants in the highest quartile of airway to lung ratio, those in the lowest had a significantly higher COPD incidence (9.8 vs 1.2 cases per 1000 person-years; rate ratio [RR], 8.12; 95% CI, 3.81 to 17.27; rate difference, 8.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.1 to 9.2; P < .001) but no significant difference in FEV1 decline (-31 vs -33 mL/y; difference, 2 mL/y; 95% CI, -2 to 5; P = .30). Among CanCOLD participants (mean [SD] age, 67 years [10 years]; 564 women [44.3%]), 113 of 752 (15.0%) had incident COPD at a median of 3.1 years and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -36 mL/y (75 mL/y). The COPD incidence in the lowest airway to lung quartile was significantly higher than in the highest quartile (80.6 vs 24.2 cases per 1000 person-years; RR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.89 to 5.85; rate difference, 56.4 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 38.0 to 66.8; P<.001), but the FEV1 decline did not differ significantly (-34 vs -36 mL/y; difference, 1 mL/y; 95% CI, -15 to 16; P=.97). Among 1206 SPIROMICS participants (mean [SD] age, 65 years [8 years]; 542 women [44.9%]) with COPD who were followed up for a median 2.1 years, those in the lowest airway to lung ratio quartile had a mean FEV1 decline of -37 mL/y (15 mL/y), which did not differ significantly from the decline in MESA Lung participants (P = .98), whereas those in highest quartile had significantly faster decline than participants in MESA Lung (-55 mL/y [16 mL/y ]; difference, -17 mL/y; 95% CI, -32 to -3; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults, dysanapsis was significantly associated with COPD, with lower airway tree caliber relative to lung size associated with greater COPD risk. Dysanapsis appears to be a risk factor associated with COPD.

Association of Nonobstructive Chronic Bronchitis With Respiratory Health Outcomes in Adults.

Importance: Chronic bronchitis has been associated with cigarette smoking as well as with e-cigarette use among young adults, but the association of chronic bronchitis in persons without airflow obstruction or clinical asthma, described as nonobstructive chronic bronchitis, with respiratory health outcomes remains uncertain. Objective: To assess whether nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in adult ever smokers and never smokers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 22 325 adults without initial airflow obstruction (defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] of <0.70) or clinical asthma at baseline. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts. Thus present study is based on data from 5 of these cohorts. Participants were enrolled from August 1971 through May 2007 and were followed up through December 2018. Exposures: Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was defined by questionnaire at baseline as both cough and phlegm for at least 3 months for at least 2 consecutive years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lung function was measured by prebronchodilator spirometry. Hospitalizations and deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease and respiratory disease-related mortality were defined by events adjudication and administrative criteria. Models were stratified by smoking status and adjusted for anthropometric, sociodemographic, and smoking-related factors. The comparison group was participants without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Results: Among 22 325 adults included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 53.0 (16.3) years (range, 18.0-95.0 years), 58.2% were female, 65.9% were non-Hispanic white, and 49.6% were ever smokers. Among 11 082 ever smokers with 99 869 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (300 [2.7%]) had accelerated decreases in FEV1 (4.1 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.1-6.1 mL/y) and FVC (4.7 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.2-7.2 mL/y), increased risks of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), and greater respiratory disease-related (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) compared with ever smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Among 11 243 never smokers with 120 004 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (151 [1.3%]) had greater rates of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.1-4.5) compared with never smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was not associated with FEV1:FVC decline or incident airflow obstruction. The presence of at least 1 of the component symptoms of nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (ie, chronic cough or phlegm), which was common in both ever smokers (11.0%) and never smokers (6.7%), was associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes, particularly in ever smokers, and may be a high-risk phenotype suitable for risk stratification and targeted therapies.

Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

BACKGROUND: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease. METHODS: We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (≥17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (≥45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (≥65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV1 decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV1 decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption. FINDINGS: 25 352 participants (ages 17-93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3-20), FEV1 decline at the median age (57 years) was 31·01 mL per year (95% CI 30·66-31·37) in sustained never-smokers, 34·97 mL per year (34·36-35·57) in former smokers, and 39·92 mL per year (38·92-40·92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV1 decline of 1·82 mL per year (95% CI 1·24-2·40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9·21 mL per year; 95% CI 8·35-10·08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV1 decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV1 decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7·65 mL per year; 95% CI 6·21-9·09) was 68% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11·24 mL per year; 9·86-12·62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1·57 mL per year; 1·00-2·14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results. INTERPRETATION: Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency.

Association Between Statin Use and Sex Hormone in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Cohort.

PURPOSE: Based on the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines, the number of individuals eligible for statin therapy to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk has greatly expanded. Statins inhibit cholesterol biosynthesis, which can impair gonadal steroidogenesis. We evaluated the effect of statins on endogenous sex hormones in a large epidemiological study. METHODS: A total of 6814 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants underwent the baseline examination. Of these, 6171 had measurements of serum sex hormones available: dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), SHBG, estradiol, and total and bioavailable testosterone. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the relationship of statin use with each sex hormone. RESULTS: A total of 345 women (17.4%) and 464 men (14.7%) were statin users (mean age, 67 years; 41% white, 29% black, 11% Chinese, and 19% Hispanic). Among the users vs nonusers of statins, the mean SHBG was 3.54 nmol/L (P < 0.01) lower in women and 3.37 nmol/L (P < 0.001) lower in men; the mean DHEA was 1.06 nmol/L (P < 0.05) lower in women and 0.70 nmol/L (P < 0.01) lower in men, after adjustment for potential confounders. With further propensity score adjustment, the mean DHEA and SHBG levels were 0.67 nmol/L (P < 0.05) and 3.49 nmol/L (P < 0.001) lower, respectively, for statin users vs nonusers. No statistically significant association was noted between estradiol, total testosterone, and bioavailable testosterone and statin use. CONCLUSION: Statin users have lower levels of SHBG and DHEA. This is especially relevant owing to the increasing use of statin therapy.

Inhaled hypertonic saline in preschool children with cystic fibrosis (SHIP): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Inhaled hypertonic saline enhances mucociliary clearance, improves lung function, and reduces pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis older than age 6 years. We aimed to assess the effect of inhaled hypertonic saline on the lung clearance index (LCI2·5)-a measure of ventilation inhomogeneity-in children aged 3-6 years with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: The Saline Hypertonic in Preschoolers (SHIP) Study was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 25 cystic fibrosis centres in Canada and the USA. Eligible participants were aged 36-72 months; had a confirmed diagnosis of cystic fibrosis; were able to comply with medication use, study visits, and study procedures; and were able to complete at least two technically acceptable trials of multiple breath washout (MBW). Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via a web-based data entry system that confirmed enrolment eligibility to inhaled 7% hypertonic saline or 0·9% isotonic saline nebulised twice daily (for no more than 15 min per dose) for 48 weeks. Permuted block randomisation was done separately for participants aged 36-54 months and those aged 55-72 months to ensure approximate balance by treatment group in the two age groups. The primary endpoint was the change in the LCI2·5 measured by nitrogen MBW from baseline to week 48. All study sites were trained and certified in MBW. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT02378467. FINDINGS: Between April 21, 2015, and Aug 4, 2017, 150 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned, 76 to the hypertonic saline group and 74 to the isotonic saline group. Overall 89% of the MBW tests produced acceptable data. At 48 weeks, treatment with hypertonic saline was associated with a significant decrease (ie, improvement) in LCI2·5 compared with isotonic saline (mean treatment effect -0·63 LCI2·5 units [95% CI -1·10 to -0·15]; p=0·010). Six participants in the hypertonic saline group had ten serious adverse events and eight participants in the isotonic saline group had nine serious adverse events. The serious adverse events reported were cough (two patients [3%] in the hypertonic saline group vs three [4%] in the isotonic saline group), gastrostomy tube placement or rupture (two [3%] vs one [1%]), upper gastrointestinal disorders (one [1%] vs two [3%]), distal intestinal obstruction syndrome (one [1%] vs one [1%]), and decreased pulmonary function (none vs one [1%]). None of these serious adverse events was judged to be treatment related. INTERPRETATION: Inhaled hypertonic saline improved the LCI2·5 in children aged 3-6 years, and could be a suitable early intervention in cystic fibrosis. FUNDING: Cystic Fibrosis Foundation.

Yield and consistency of arrhythmia detection with patch electrocardiographic monitoring: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Patch electrocardiographic (ECG) monitors permit extended noninvasive ambulatory monitoring. To guide use of these devices, information is needed about their performance. We sought to determine in a large general population sample the acceptability of patch ECG monitors, the yield of arrhythmia detection, and the consistency of findings in participants monitored twice. METHODS: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 1122 participants completed one or two monitoring episodes using the Zio Patch XT, a single-channel ECG patch monitor capable of recording for 14 days. Recordings were analyzed for atrial fibrillation (AF), atrial flutter, atrioventricular block, pauses, and supraventricular and ventricular ectopy. RESULTS: The mean(SD) age at the time of monitoring was 75(8) years, 52% were men, and 15% had a prior history of clinically-recognized AF/flutter. The median monitoring duration was 13.8 days. Among 804 participants with no prior clinical history of AF/flutter and at least 12 days of monitoring on a single device, AF/flutter was detected in 32 (4.0%); in 38% of these, AF/flutter was first detected during days 3 through 12 of monitoring. In participants monitored twice, findings from the two devices showed excellent agreement for supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats per hour, but only fair agreement for high-grade atrioventricular block and pauses of >3 s duration. CONCLUSIONS: In a general population of older individuals, new diagnoses of AF/flutter were made in 4.0% of participants without a prior history. A single monitoring episode accurately estimated rates of supraventricular and ventricular ectopy.

Serum androgens and risk of atrial fibrillation in older men: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Decline in serum androgens is common among older men and has been associated with cardiovascular disease, although its role in risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been well defined. HYPOTHESIS: Low serum androgens are associated with an increased risk of AF. METHODS: We examined the prospective associations between testosterone, its more active metabolite dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with risk of AF among 1019 otherwise healthy men with average age 76.3 ±4.9 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study. RESULTS: After median follow-up of 9.5 years, 304 (30%) men developed AF. We detected a nonlinear association with risk of incident AF in both free and total DHT, in which subjects with the lowest levels had a higher risk of incident AF. After adjustment for demographics, clinical risk factors, left atrial diameter, and serum NT-proBNP levels, men with free DHT <0.16 ng/dL were at increased risk compared with men with higher levels (hazard ratio: 1.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-2.17, P <0.05). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the increased risk was not cutpoint-specific, with a significant association noted up to cutpoints <~0.2 ng/dL. We also detected a complex nonlinear association between SHBG and incident AF, in which subjects in the middle quintile (52.9-65.3 nmol/L) had increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: Among older men, low free DHT is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. Further studies are needed to explore mechanisms for this association.

Development and Validation of a Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction Model for the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Most sudden cardiac death (SCD) events occur in the general population among persons who do not have any prior history of clinical heart disease. We sought to develop a predictive model of SCD among US adults. METHODS: We evaluated a series of demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) (n=13 677) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (n=4207) who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Our initial objective was to derive a SCD prediction model using the ARIC cohort and validate it in CHS. Independent risk factors for SCD were first identified in the ARIC cohort to derive a 10-year risk model of SCD. We compared the prediction of SCD with non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, we evaluated whether the SCD prediction equation was better at predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Disease Pooled Cohort risk equation. RESULTS: There were a total of 345 adjudicated SCD events in our analyses, and the 12 independent risk factors in the ARIC study included age, male sex, black race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes mellitus, serum potassium, serum albumin, high-density lipoprotein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval. During a 10-year follow-up period, a model combining these risk factors showed good to excellent discrimination for SCD risk (c-statistic 0.820 in ARIC and 0.745 in CHS). The SCD prediction model was slightly better in predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort risk equations (c-statistic 0.808 in ARIC and 0.743 in CHS). Only the SCD prediction model, however, demonstrated similar and accurate prediction for SCD using both the original, uncalibrated score and the recalibrated equation. Finally, in the echocardiographic subcohort, a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was present in only 1.1% of participants and did not enhance SCD prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and black participants without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.

Pericardial Fat and Right Ventricular Morphology: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis- Right Ventricle Study (MESA-RV).

BACKGROUND: Pericardial fat has been implicated in the pathogenesis of obesity-related cardiovascular disease. Proposed mechanisms may be relevant in right heart failure, but relationships between pericardial fat and right ventricular (RV) morphology have not been explored. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a prospective cohort that enrolled participants without clinical cardiovascular disease. Pericardial fat was measured using computed tomography and RV parameters using cardiac MRI. Linear regression estimated associations of pericardial fat with RV mass, RV end diastolic volume (RV-EDV), RV end systolic volume (RV-ESV), RV stroke volume (RV-SV), and RV ejection fraction (RV-EF). Limited models adjusted for age, gender, race, height, and study site with and without weight. Fully adjusted models also accounted for socioeconomic parameters and health behaviors. Adjustment for left ventricular morphology, metabolic syndrome, and systemic inflammation was also performed. RESULTS: The study sample included 3988 participants with complete assessment of RV morphology, pericardial fat and all covariates. Greater pericardial fat volume was associated with reduced RV mass (-0.3g per 40 cm3 increase in pericardial fat, p<0.001), smaller RV-EDV (-3.7ml per 40 cm3 increase in pericardial fat, p<0.001), smaller RV-ESV (-1.0ml per 40cm3 increase in pericardial fat, p<0.001), and smaller RV-SV (-2.7mL per 40 cm3 increase in pericardial fat, p<0.001) in participants after adjustment for weight. Associations were unchanged when accounting for health behaviors, markers of systemic inflammation, and the metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Greater pericardial fat was associated with reduced RV mass, smaller RV-EDV, smaller RV-ESV, and smaller RV-SV in participants after adjustment for weight. Relationships between pericardial fat and RV morphology could be relevant to diseases of right heart failure.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Arterial Stiffness and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), and the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the association of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque, carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their role in improving AF risk prediction beyond the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF risk score. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3 population-based cohort studies: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (n=13 907); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; n=6640), and the Rotterdam Study (RS; n=5220). We evaluated the association of arterial indices with incident AF and computed the C-statistic, category-based net reclassification improvement (NRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating arterial indices into the CHARGE-AF risk score (age, race, height weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, smoking, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, and previous heart failure). Higher cIMT (meta-analyzed hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1-SD increment, 1.12 [1.08-1.16]) and presence of carotid plaque (1.30 [1.19-1.42]) were associated with higher AF incidence after adjustment for CHARGE-AF risk-score variables. Lower DC and higher PWV were associated with higher AF incidence only after adjustment for the CHARGE-AF risk-score variables excepting height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Addition of cIMT or carotid plaque marginally improved CHARGE-AF score prediction as assessed by the relative IDI (estimates, 0.025-0.051), but not when assessed with the C-statistic and NRI. CONCLUSIONS: Higher cIMT, presence of carotid plaque, and greater arterial stiffness are associated with higher AF incidence, indicating that atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness play a role in AF etiopathogenesis. However, arterial indices only modestly improve AF risk prediction.

Per cent emphysema is associated with respiratory and lung cancer mortality in the general population: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emphysema on CT is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in persons with and without airflow obstruction; however, causes of death associated with emphysema remain uncertain, particularly in the general population. AIMS: To test associations between quantitatively assessed emphysema on CT and cause of death in persons with and without a substantial smoking history. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis recruited 6814 participants, aged 45-84 years and without clinical cardiovascular disease, in 2000-2002. Per cent emphysema was defined on cardiac CT as per cent of lung voxels less than -950 Hounsfield units; emphysema on CT was defined as per cent emphysema above the upper limit of normal. Cause of death was classified by administrative codes. Proportional-hazards models were adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, gender, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, coronary artery calcium, site and education. Additional adjustment for lung function was made in a subset with spirometry from 2004 to 2006. RESULTS: There were 1091 deaths over 12 years median follow-up. Emphysema on CT was strongly associated with increased mortality due to respiratory diseases (adjusted HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.68 to 5.15), particularly chronic lower respiratory diseases (adjusted HR 9.54, 95% CI 4.70 to 19.35), and lung cancer (adjusted HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.12), but not cardiovascular disease. Associations persisted among participants with fewer than 10 pack-years and those without physician-diagnosed respiratory disease, and were similar after adjustment for airflow measures and in persons without airflow limitation. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitatively assessed emphysema on CT is associated with greater respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality, even among persons without traditional risk factors.

HIV Infection and Carotid Artery Intima-media Thickness: Pooled Analyses Across 5 Cohorts of the NHLBI HIV-CVD Collaborative.

BACKGROUND: Age and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment may affect the association of HIV infection with atherosclerosis. METHODS: We used identical carotid artery B-mode ultrasonographic methods in 5 cohorts participating in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute HIV-CVD Collaborative to measure intima-media thickness of the right far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA-IMT) and carotid artery bifurcation (BIF-IMT) between 2010 and 2013. Participants aged 6-75 years were either HIV infected or uninfected. Linear regression assessed associations of CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT with HIV infection and cardiovascular disease risk factors, within age and HIV treatment groups. Adjustment variables included sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, height, weight, and use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. RESULTS: We studied 867 HIV-infected and 338 HIV-uninfected male and 696 HIV-infected and 246 HIV-uninfected female participants. Among both middle-aged (30-49 years) and older adults (50-75 years), HIV-infected participants had CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT values that were similar to or lower than those in HIV-uninfected participants. In contrast, among those aged 6-29 years, HIV infection was associated with higher CCA-IMT and BIF-IMT values. Among HIV-infected participants, associations of higher systolic blood pressure and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with Carotid artery intima-media thickness strengthened with age. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of HIV on carotid artery structure may differ across the lifespan, with traditional determinants of cardiovascular disease burden playing a larger role and HIV playing a lesser role in older adults than in young adults and children.

10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Coronary Artery Calcium and Traditional Risk Factors: Derivation in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) With Validation in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study).

BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated the tremendous potential of using coronary artery calcium (CAC) in addition to traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction. However, to date, no risk score incorporating CAC has been developed. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to derive and validate a novel risk score to estimate 10-year CHD risk using CAC and traditional risk factors. METHODS: Algorithm development was conducted in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective community-based cohort study of 6,814 participants age 45 to 84 years, who were free of clinical heart disease at baseline and followed for 10 years. MESA is sex balanced and included 39% non-Hispanic whites, 12% Chinese Americans, 28% African Americans, and 22% Hispanic Americans. External validation was conducted in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study) and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study). RESULTS: Inclusion of CAC in the MESA risk score offered significant improvements in risk prediction (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.75; p < 0.0001). External validation in both the HNR and DHS studies provided evidence of very good discrimination and calibration. Harrell's C-statistic was 0.779 in HNR and 0.816 in DHS. Additionally, the difference in estimated 10-year risk between events and nonevents was approximately 8% to 9%, indicating excellent discrimination. Mean calibration, or calibration-in-the-large, was excellent for both studies, with average predicted 10-year risk within one-half of a percent of the observed event rate. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate estimate of 10-year CHD risk can be obtained using traditional risk factors and CAC. The MESA risk score, which is available online on the MESA web site for easy use, can be used to aid clinicians when communicating risk to patients and when determining risk-based treatment strategies.

Coronary Artery Calcium Improves Risk Assessment in Adults With a Family History of Premature Coronary Heart Disease: Results From Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) or carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) among asymptomatic adults with a family history (FH) of premature coronary heart disease is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis enrolled 6814 adults without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Hard ASCVD events were ascertained over a median follow-up of 10.2 years. We estimated adjusted-hazard ratios for CAC and CIMT categories using Cox regression, both within and across FH status groups. Improvement in discrimination with CAC or CIMT added to variables from the ASCVD pooled cohort equation was also evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curve and likelihood ratio analysis. Of 6125 individuals (62±10 years; 47% men) who reported information on FH, 1262 (21%) had an FH of premature coronary heart disease. Among these, 104 hard ASCVD events occurred. Crude incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for hard ASCVD were 4.4 for CAC, 0 (n=574; 46% of the sample); 8.8 for CAC, 1 to 99 (n=368); 14.9 for CAC, 100 to 399 (n=178); and 20.8 for CAC, ≥400 (n=142). Relative to CAC=0, adjusted hard ASCVD hazard ratios for each CAC category among persons with an FH were 1.64 (95% confidence interval, 0.94-2.87), 2.45 (1.31-4.58), and 2.80 (1.44-5.43), respectively. However, there was no increased adjusted hazard for hard ASCVD in high versus low CIMT categories. In participants with an FH of premature coronary heart disease, CAC improved discrimination of hard ASCVD events (P<0.001). However, CIMT did not discriminate ASCVD (P=0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of individuals reporting FH have zero CAC and may receive less net benefit from aspirin or statin therapy. Among persons with an FH, CAC is a robust marker of absolute and relative risk of ASCVD, whereas CIMT is not.

HIV and coronary artery calcium score: comparison of the Hawaii Aging with HIV Cardiovascular Study and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of HIV, immunologic, and inflammatory factors on coronary artery calcium (CAC), a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. METHODS: Cross-sectional study comparing baseline data of males from Hawaii Aging with HIV - Cardiovascular Study (HAHCS) with the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. The cohorts were pooled to determine effects of HIV on CAC and explore immunologic and inflammatory factors that may explain development of CAC in HIV. Multivariable regression models compared CAC prevalence in HAHCS with MESA adjusting for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk profiles. RESULTS: We studied 100 men from HAHCS and 2733 men from MESA. Positive CAC was seen in 58% HAHCS participants and 57% MESA participants. Mean CAC was 260.8 in HAHCS and 306.5 in MESA. Using relative risk (RR) regression, HAHCS participants had a greater risk (RR = 1.20, P < 0.05) of having positive CAC than MESA when adjusting for age, smoking status, diabetes, antihypertensive therapy, BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. Among participants with positive CAC, HIV infection was not associated with larger amounts of CAC. Among HAHCS participants, current HIV viral load, CD4, length of HIV, interleukin 6 (IL-6), fibrinogen, C-reactive protein (CRP), and D-dimer were not associated with the presence or amount of CAC. DISCUSSION: HIV was independently associated with a positive CAC in men with increased likelihood occurring between 45 and 50 years of age. Current HIV viral load, CD4 count, length of HIV, and inflammatory markers were unrelated to either presence or amount of CAC.