Increased Utilization of Low-Dose CT for Lung Cancer Screening at an Arkansas Community Oncology Clinic.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT (LDCT) is underused in Arkansas for lung cancer screening, a rural state with a high incidence of lung cancer. The objective was to determine whether offering free LDCT increased the number of high-risk individuals screened in a rural catchment area. METHODS: There were 5,402 patients enrolled in screening at Highlands Oncology, a community oncology clinic in Northwest Arkansas, from 2013 to 2020. Screenings were separated into time periods: period 1 (10 months for-fee), period 2 (10 months free with targeted advertisements and primary care outreach), and period 3 (62 months free with only primary care outreach). In all, 5,035 high-risk participants were eligible for analysis based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology. Enrollment rates, incidence densities (IDs), Cox proportional hazard models, and Kaplan-Meier curves were performed to investigate differences between enrollment periods and high-risk groups. RESULTS: Patient volume increased drastically once screenings were offered free of charge (period 1 = 4.6 versus period 2 = 66.0 and period 3 = 69.8 average patients per month). Incidence density per 1,000 person-years increased through each period (IDPeriod 1 = 17.2; IDPeriod 2 = 20.8; IDPeriod 3 = 25.5 cases). Cox models revealed significant differences in lung cancer risk between high-risk groups (P = .012) but not enrollment periods (P = .19). Kaplan-Meier lung cancer-free probabilities differed significantly between high-risk groups (log-rank P = .00068) but not enrollment periods (log-rank P = .18). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that eligible patients are more receptive to free LDCT screening, despite most insurances not having a required copay for eligible patients.

A cross-sectional investigation of softening indicators among South African smokers: Results from the South African Social Attitudes Survey between 2007 and 2018.

Recent studies have shown softening among smokers in different countries and in different population groups i.e., as smoking prevalence declined remaining smokers made more quit attempts and smoked fewer cigarettes per day (CPD), as opposed to hardening. We examined tobacco use-related cross-sectional data from five waves of the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS 2007-2018, N = 14,822). Accounting for the SASAS's complex survey design, we ran logistic and linear regressions for smoking prevalence, and for the following indicators of softening: plans to quit smoking within a month, time to first cigarette (5 min, TTFC) and cigarettes smoked per day (CPD). We controlled for survey wave, age, sex, race, marital status, educational level and urban/rural residence. Smoking prevalence remained stable from 2007 (20.7%) to 2018 (22.2%) in the overall population of smokers (p = 0.197), and within sex and race group of smokers. In the adjusted model, there was a significant decline in CPD over time, 0.12 cigarettes per year. There was also a significant decrease in TTFC among males over time. Among women, CPD declined significantly by 0.32 cigarettes per year. The proportion of Asians/Indians planning to quit also decreased over time. South African smokers do not consistently show significant change in the softening indicators overall. Stronger tobacco control policies and better-tailored smoking cessation interventions are needed to achieve a significant decrease in smoking prevalence across sex and other subpopulations in South Africa.

Menthol Smoking and Nicotine Dependence among Black/African American Women Smokers Living in Low-Resource, Rural Communities.

Black/African American women from low-resource, rural communities bear a disproportionate burden of tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. This study examined associations between menthol smoking and socioeconomic deprivation with nicotine dependence and quitting behaviors among Black/African American women cigarette and/or little cigar/cigarillo smokers, aged 18-50 living in low-resource, rural communities. Baseline survey data from a randomized controlled behavioral/intervention trial (#NCT03476837) were analyzed (n = 146). Outcomes included time to first tobacco product (cigarette/little cigar/cigarillo) use within 5 min of waking, Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) score, and ever attempting to quit cigarettes. Socioeconomic deprivation measures included education, income, and receiving supplemental nutritional assistance (SNAP) program benefits. In adjusted regression analyses, menthol smoking was associated with both greater FTND scores and time to first tobacco product use within 5 min of waking, but not ever attempting to quit cigarettes. Regardless of menthol status, only 25.0% of smokers reported that they would quit smoking if menthol cigarettes were banned. The proportion of smokers who smoked their first tobacco product within 5 min of waking increased slightly with greater socioeconomic deprivation. Additional research and targeted efforts are needed to reduce nicotine dependence among Black/African American women smokers living in rural, low-resource communities where access to cessation services is limited.

Uneven Access to Smoke-Free Laws and Policies and Its Effect on Health Equity in the United States: 2000-2019.

Tobacco control measures have played an important role in the reduction of the cigarette smoking prevalence among US adults.However, although overall smoking prevalence has declined, it remains high among many subpopulations that are disproportionately burdened by tobacco use, resulting in tobacco-related health disparities. Slow diffusion of smoke-free laws to rural regions, particularly in the South and Southeast, and uneven adoption of voluntary policies in single-family homes and multiunit housing are key policy variables associated with the disproportionate burden of tobacco-related health disparities in these subpopulations.Developing policies that expand the reach of comprehensive smoke-free laws not only will facilitate the decline in smoking prevalence among subpopulations disproportionately burdened by tobacco use but will also decrease exposure to secondhand smoke and further reduce tobacco-caused health disparities in the United States.

Similar softening across different racial and ethnic groups of smokers in California as smoking prevalence declined.

Smoking prevalence differs among different racial/ethnic groups. Previous research found that as smoking prevalence declined in the U.S., remaining smokers made more quit attempts and smoked fewer cigarettes per day (CPD), indicating so-called softening. We examined California, a state with a highly diverse population, to assess whether there is differential softening among remaining smokers in different racial/ethnic groups. We used the California Tobacco Survey (1990-2008, N: 145,128). We ran logistic and linear regressions for smoking prevalence, CPD, quit attempts and time to first cigarette (30 min) as a function of race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, Hispanic, African American, Japanese, Chinese, Filipino, Korean, other Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaska Native) controlling for other demographics. Overall prevalence fell from 21.1% in 1990 to 12.3% in 2008 (p < 0.01), showing similar declining trends across all racial/ethnic groups (p = 0.44), albeit from different baseline prevalence levels. In terms of softening indicators the proportion with at least one quit attempt in the past 12 months increased from 46.2% to 59.3%, a factor of 1.25 per decade (95%CI = 1.17, 1.34) in the adjusted model. CPD declined from 16.9 to 10.9, by -2.95 CPD per decade (95%CI = -3.24, -2.67) in the adjusted model. There were no significant changes in the time to first cigarette. Interactions of race/ethnicity and time show similar trends among all subgroups expect Hispanics, whose CPD remained stable rather than declining. Although from different baseline levels, tobacco control policies have benefitted all subgroups of California smokers, exhibiting similar softening as prevalence fell. Interventions are still needed to reduce the baseline differences.

E-cigarettes Associated With Depressed Smoking Cessation: A Cross-sectional Study of 28 European Union Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are often promoted to assist with cigarette smoking cessation. In 2016-2017, the relationship between e-cigarette use and having stopped smoking among ever (current and former) smokers was assessed in the European Union and Great Britain by itself. METHODS: Cross-sectional logistic regression of the association between being a former smoker and e-cigarette use was applied to the 2014 Eurobarometer survey of 28 European Union countries controlling for demographics. RESULTS: Among all ever smokers, any regular ever use of nicotine e-cigarettes was associated with lower odds of being a former smoker (unadjusted OR=0.34, 95% CI=0.26, 0.43, AOR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32, 0.58) compared with smokers who had never used e-cigarettes. In unadjusted models, daily use (OR=0.42, 95% CI=0.31, 0.56); occasional use (OR=0.25, 95% CI=0.18, 0.35); and experimentation (OR=0.24, 95% CI=0.19, 0.30) of nicotine e-cigarettes were associated with lower odds of being a former smoker compared with having never used nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Comparable results were found in adjusted models. Results were similar in Great Britain alone. Among current smokers, daily cigarette consumption was 15.6 cigarettes/day (95% CI=14.5, 16.7) among those who also used e-cigarettes versus 14.4 cigarettes/day (95% CI=13.4, 15.4) for those who did not use them (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that e-cigarettes are associated with inhibiting rather than assisting in smoking cessation. On the population level, the net effect of the entry of e-cigarettes into the European Union (and Great Britain) is associated with depressed smoking cessation of conventional cigarettes.

Softening Among U.S. Smokers With Psychological Distress: More Quit Attempts and Lower Consumption as Smoking Drops.

INTRODUCTION: It has been argued that as smoking prevalence declines, the remaining smokers represent a "hard core" who are unwilling or unable to quit, a process known as hardening. However, as recently shown, the general smoking population is softening not hardening (i.e., as prevalence falls, more quit attempts and lower consumption among continuing smokers). People with psychological distress smoke more, so they may represent hard-core smokers. METHODS: Using cross-sectional time series analysis, in 2016-2017 changes in quit attempts and cigarette consumption were evaluated over 19 years among smokers with serious psychological distress (Kessler-6 score ≥13) based on the National Health Interview Survey (1997-2015), controlling for sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: People with psychological distress had higher smoking prevalence and consumed more cigarettes/day than people without distress. The percentage of those with at least one quit attempt was higher among those with psychological distress. The increase in quit attempts over time was similar among smokers in each of the distress levels. For every 10 years, the OR of a quit attempt increased by a factor of 1.13 (95% CI=1.02, 1.24, p<0.05). Consumption declined by 3.35 (95% CI= -3.94, -2.75, p<0.01) cigarettes/day for those with serious psychological distress. CONCLUSIONS: Although smoking more heavily than the general population, smokers with psychological distress, like the general population, are softening over time. To improve health outcomes and increase health equity, tobacco control policies should continue moving all subgroups of smokers down these softening curves, while simultaneously incorporating appropriately tailored quitting help into mental health settings.

Tobacco growing and the sustainable development goals, Malawi.

Negative impacts of tobacco result from human consumption and from tobacco-growing activities, most of which now occur in low- and middle-income countries. Malawi is the world's largest producer of burley tobacco and its population is affected by the negative consequences of both tobacco consumption and production. In countries like Malawi, tobacco control refers to control of the tobacco supply chain, rather than control of consumption. We review the impact of tobacco cultivation, using Malawi as an example, to illustrate the economic, environmental, health and social issues faced by low- and middle-income countries that still produce significant tobacco crops. We place these issues in the context of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), particularly 3a which calls on all governments to strengthen the implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Other goals address the negative effects that tobacco cultivation has on development. The SDGs offer an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries that are dependent on tobacco production and that are not yet parties to the Convention, to reconsider joining the FCTC.

Les impacts négatifs du tabac résultent de la consommation humaine et des activités de culture du tabac, qui sont aujourd'hui exercées pour la plupart dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. Le Malawi est le plus grand producteur mondial de tabac Burley et sa population subit les effets négatifs de la consommation et de la production de tabac. Dans des pays comme le Malawi, le contrôle du tabac porte davantage sur le contrôle de la chaîne d'approvisionnement que sur le contrôle de la consommation de tabac. Nous examinons ici l'impact de la culture du tabac, en prenant le Malawi comme exemple pour illustrer les problèmes économiques, environnementaux, sanitaires et sociaux que rencontrent les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire qui continuent de produire d'importantes récoltes de tabac. Nous plaçons ces problèmes dans le cadre des objectifs de développement durable (ODD), en particulier du 3.a, qui appelle tous les gouvernements à renforcer l'application de la Convention-cadre de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé pour la lutte antitabac (CCLAT). D'autres objectifs s'intéressent aux effets négatifs de la culture du tabac sur le développement. Les ODD offrent l'opportunité aux pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire qui dépendent de la production de tabac et qui ne sont pas encore parties à la Convention de réenvisager de la signer.

Los impactos negativos del tabaco se derivan del consumo humano y las actividades de cultivo de tabaco, la mayoría de las cuales suelen realizarse actualmente en países con ingresos bajos y medios. Malawi es el mayor productor de tabaco burley del mundo y su población se ha visto afectada por las consecuencias negativas del consumo y la producción de tabaco. En países como Malawi, el control del tabaco hace referencia al control de la cadena de suministro de tabaco, en lugar del control del consumo. Se revisó el impacto del cultivo de tabaco, utilizando Malawi como ejemplo, para ilustrar los problemas económicos, medioambientales, sanitarios y sociales a los que se enfrentan los países de ingresos bajos y medios que siguen produciendo grandes cosechas de tabaco. Se situaron estos problemas en el contexto de los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible, principalmente el 3.a, que hace un llamamiento a todos los gobiernos para que fortalezcan la implementación del Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT). Otros objetivos abordan los efectos negativos del cultivo de tabaco en el desarrollo. Los ODS ofrecen una oportunidad para que los países con ingresos bajos y medios que dependen de la producción del tabaco y que aún no forman parte del convenio reconsideren incorporarse al CMCT.

Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models. METHODS: For eleven countries-approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population-we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality. Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the "worst practice", "best practice", and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported. RESULTS: Applying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females (approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively) while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females (approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively). Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years (342,800 less disease cases), whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years (1,075,200 less disease cases). CONCLUSION: Smoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future research should aim to improve knowledge of how policies can influence and shape individual and aggregated life-style-related risk-factor behavior.

The smoking population in the USA and EU is softening not hardening.

BACKGROUND: It has been argued that as smoking prevalence declines in countries, the smokers that remain include higher proportions of those who are unwilling or unable to quit (a process known as 'hardening'). Smokeless tobacco and e-cigarettes have been promoted as a strategy to deal with such smokers. If hardening is occurring, there would be a positive association between smoking prevalence and quitting, with less quitting at lower prevalence. There would also be a neutral or negative association between prevalence and the number of cigarettes smoked. METHODS: We examined US state-level associations using the Tobacco Use Supplement (1992/1993-2010/2011) and Eurobarometer surveys for 31 European countries (2006-2009-2012) using regressions of quit attempts, quit ratios, and number of cigarettes smoked on smoking prevalence over time. RESULTS: For each 1% drop in smoking prevalence, quit attempts increase by 0.55%±.07 (p<0.001) in the USA and remain stable in Europe (p=0.53), US quit ratios increase by 1.13%±0.06 (p<0.001), and consumption drops by 0.32 cig/day±0.02 (p<0.001) in the USA and 0.22 cig/day±0.05 (p<0.001) in Europe. These associations remain stable over time (p>0.24), with significantly lower consumption at any given prevalence level as time passed in the USA (-0.15 (cig/day)/year±0.06, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with prior research using different data and methods, these population-level results reject the hypothesis of hardening as smoking prevalence drops, instead supporting softening of the smoking population as prevalence declines.

How can inequalities in mortality be reduced? A quantitative analysis of 6 risk factors in 21 European populations.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. METHODS: We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. FINDINGS: In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. INTERPRETATION: Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible.

Occupational class inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged men in 14 European populations during the early 2000s.

This study analyses occupational class inequalities in all-cause mortality and four specific causes of death among men, in Europe in the early 2000s, and is the most extensive comparative analysis of occupational class inequalities in mortality in Europe so far. Longitudinal data, obtained from population censuses and mortality registries in 14 European populations, from around the period 2000-2005, were used. Analyses concerned men aged 30-59 years and included all-cause mortality and mortality from all cancers, all cardiovascular diseases (CVD), all external, and all other causes. Occupational class was analysed according to five categories: upper and lower non-manual workers, skilled and unskilled manual workers, and farmers and self-employed combined. Inequalities were quantified with mortality rate ratios, rate differences, and population attributable fractions (PAF). Relative and absolute inequalities in all-cause mortality were more pronounced in Finland, Denmark, France, and Lithuania than in other populations, and the same countries (except France) also had the highest PAF values for all-cause mortality. The main contributing causes to these larger inequalities differed strongly between countries (e.g., cancer in France, all other causes in Denmark). Relative and absolute inequalities in CVD mortality were markedly lower in Southern European populations. We conclude that relative and absolute occupational class differences in all-cause and cause specific mortality have persisted into the early 2000's, although the magnitude differs strongly between populations. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that the relative gap in mortality between occupational classes has further widened in some Northern and Western European populations.

Does the pattern of educational inequalities in smoking in Western Europe depend on the choice of survey?

OBJECTIVES: Smoking rates vary according to socioeconomic group. We investigated whether patterns of educational inequalities in smoking prevalence differ across three major European surveys. METHODS: Data on smoking came from National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS), the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) and the Eurobarometer (EB). We calculated prevalence ratios by education. We controlled for sex, country, data source and age. We used likelihood ratio tests to determine whether inequalities in each country differed between surveys and whether the association of education and smoking across countries was the same in different surveys. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence tended to be lower in the ECHP than in both other surveys, and was highest in the EB. The pattern of inequalities in smoking also differed between surveys. Statistically significant differences between surveys were found mainly in Southern Europe, where EB-based prevalence ratios often deviated from those in the other two surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Relative inequalities in smoking prevalence depend on the survey used. Our results suggest that the NHIS and the ECHP are more reliable sources of information on educational inequalities in smoking than the EB.

Educational inequalities in three smoking-related causes of death in 18 European populations.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is an important determinant of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in many countries. As the smoking epidemic progresses, updates on the development of mortality inequalities attributable to smoking are needed. We provide estimates of relative and absolute educational inequalities in mortality from lung cancer, aerodigestive cancers, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma in Europe and assess the contribution of these smoking-related diseases to inequalities in all-cause mortality. METHODS: We use data from 18 European populations covering the time period 1998-2007. We present age-adjusted mortality rates, relative indices of inequality, and slope indices of inequality. We also calculate the contribution of inequalities in smoking-related mortality to inequalities in overall mortality. RESULTS: Among men, relative inequalities in mortality from the 3 smoking-related causes of death combined are largest in the Czech Republic and Hungary and smallest in Spain, Sweden, and Denmark. Among women, these inequalities are largest in Scotland and Norway and smallest in Italy and Spain. They are often larger among men and tend to be larger for COPD/asthma than for lung and aerodigestive cancers. Relative inequalities in mortality from these conditions are often larger in younger age groups, particularly among women, suggesting a possible further widening of inequalities in mortality in the coming decades. The combined contribution of these diseases to inequality in all-cause mortality varies between 13% and 32% among men and between -5% and 30% among women. CONCLUSION: Our results underline the continuing need for tobacco control policies, which take into account socioeconomic position.

Smoking and the potential for reduction of inequalities in mortality in Europe.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality remain a widely recognized problem. Countries with smaller inequalities in smoking have smaller inequalities in mortality, and smoking plays an important part in the explanation of inequalities in some countries. We identify the potential for reducing inequalities in all-cause and smoking-related mortality in 19 European populations, by applying different scenarios of smoking exposure. Smoking prevalence information and mortality data come from 19 European populations. Prevalence rates are mostly taken from National Health Surveys conducted around the year 2000. Mortality rates are based on country-specific longitudinal or cross-sectional datasets. Relative risks come from the Cancer Prevention Study II. Besides all-cause mortality we analyze several smoking-related cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma. We use a newly-developed tool to quantify the changes in population health potentially resulting from modifying the population distribution of exposure to smoking. This tool is based on the epidemiological measure of the population attributable fraction, and estimates the impact of scenario-based distributions of smoking on educational inequalities in mortality. The potential reduction of relative inequality in all-cause mortality between those with high and low education amounts up to 26 % for men and 32 % for women. More than half of the relative inequality may be reduced for some causes of death, often in countries of Northern Europe and in Britain. Patterns of potential reduction in inequality differ by country or region and sex, suggesting that the priority given to smoking as an entry-point for tackling health inequalities should differ between countries.

Health impacts of increasing alcohol prices in the European Union: a dynamic projection.

OBJECTIVE: Western Europe has high levels of alcohol consumption, with corresponding adverse health effects. Currently, a major revision of the EU excise tax regime is under discussion. We quantify the health impact of alcohol price increases across the EU. DATA AND METHOD: We use alcohol consumption data for 11 member states, covering 80% of the EU-27 population, and corresponding country-specific disease data (incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality rate of alcohol related diseases) taken from the 2010 published Dynamic Modelling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) database to dynamically project the changes in population health that might arise from changes in alcohol price. RESULTS: Increasing alcohol prices towards those of Finland (the highest in the EU) would postpone approximately 54,000 male and approximately 26,100 female deaths over 10 years. Moreover, the prevalence of a number of chronic diseases would be reduced: in men by approximately 97,800 individuals with diabetes, 65,800 with stroke and 62,200 with selected cancers, and in women by about 19,100, 23,500, and 27,100, respectively. CONCLUSION: Curbing excessive drinking throughout the EU completely would lead to substantial gains in population health. Harmonisiation of prices to the Finnish level would, for selected diseases, achieve more than 40% of those gains.

DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.

Comparison of tobacco control scenarios: quantifying estimates of long-term health impact using the DYNAMO-HIA modeling tool.

BACKGROUND: There are several types of tobacco control interventions/policies which can change future smoking exposure. The most basic intervention types are 1) smoking cessation interventions 2) preventing smoking initiation and 3) implementation of a nationwide policy affecting quitters and starters simultaneously. The possibility for dynamic quantification of such different interventions is key for comparing the timing and size of their effects. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a software tool, DYNAMO-HIA, which allows for a quantitative comparison of the health impact of different policy scenarios. We illustrate the outcomes of the tool for the three typical types of tobacco control interventions if these were applied in the Netherlands. The tool was used to model the effects of different types of smoking interventions on future smoking prevalence and on health outcomes, comparing these three scenarios with the business-as-usual scenario. The necessary data input was obtained from the DYNAMO-HIA database which was assembled as part of this project. All smoking interventions will be effective in the long run. The population-wide strategy will be most effective in both the short and long term. The smoking cessation scenario will be second-most effective in the short run, though in the long run the smoking initiation scenario will become almost as effective. Interventions aimed at preventing the initiation of smoking need a long time horizon to become manifest in terms of health effects. The outcomes strongly depend on the groups targeted by the intervention. CONCLUSION: We calculated how much more effective the population-wide strategy is, in both the short and long term, compared to quit smoking interventions and measures aimed at preventing the initiation of smoking. By allowing a great variety of user-specified choices, the DYNAMO-HIA tool is a powerful instrument by which the consequences of different tobacco control policies and interventions can be assessed.