Life course history of physical and sexual abuse is associated with cardiovascular disease risk among women living with and without HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Sexual and physical abuse predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) among women in the general population. Women living with HIV (WLWH) report more abuse and have higher CVD risk compared with other women, yet associations between abuse history and CVD have not been considered among WLWH. This study fills this gap, and describes possible pathways linking abuse to CVD risk among WLWH and women living without HIV (WLWOH). METHODS: Using 25 years of data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS; n  = 2734; WLWH n  = 1963; WLWOH n  = 771), we used longitudinal generalized estimating equations (GEE) to test associations between sexual and physical abuse with CVD risk. Framingham (FRS-H) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association-Pooled Cohort Equation (ACC/AHA-PCE) scores were examined. Analyses were stratified by HIV-serostatus. RESULTS: Among WLWH, childhood sexual abuse was associated with higher CVD risk ( ßFRS-H  = 1.25, SE = 1.08, P  = 0.005; ßACC/AHA-PCE  = 1.14, SE = 1.07, P  = 0.04) compared with no abuse. Adulthood sexual abuse was associated with higher CVD risk for WLWH ( ßFRS-H  = 1.39, SE = 1.08, P  < 0.0001) and WLWOH ( ßFRS-H  = 1.58, SE = 1.14, P  = 0.0006). Childhood physical abuse was not associated with CVD risk for either group. Adulthood physical abuse was associated with CVD risk for WLWH ( ßFRS-H  = 1.44, SE = 1.07; P  < 0.0001, ßACC/AHA-PCE  = 1.18, SE = 1.06, P  = 0.002) and WLWOH ( ßFRS-H  = 1.68, SE = 1.12, P  < 0.0001; ßACC/AHA-PCE  = 1.24, SE = 1.11, P  = 0.03). Several pathway factors were significant, including depression, smoking, and hepatitis C infection. CONCLUSION: Life course abuse may increase CVD risk among WLWH and women at high risk of acquiring HIV. Some comorbidities help explain the associations. Assessing abuse experiences in clinical encounters may help contextualize cardiovascular risk among this vulnerable population and inform intervention.

Midlife body mass index, central adiposity and neuropsychological performance over 10 years in women living with and without HIV.

Background and objective: Observations of overweight and obesity in association with neuropsychological performance (NP) vary over the adult life course depending on baseline levels, biological sex, age, race, temporality of measurements, and other factors. Therefore, similar published analyses across cohorts are inconsistent. In our sample of women living with HIV (WLWH) and women without HIV (WWOH), we conducted comparable analyses as those published in men with and without HIV. We examined cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and NP. Methods: Four hundred thirty two 432 virologically-suppressed WLWH and 367 WWOH, ≥40 years in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) with anthropometry and NP assessments every two years from 2009-2019 were included in the study. Demographically-adjusted T-scores were calculated for six NP domains: learning, memory, executive function, processing speed, attention and working memory, and motor function. Multivariable linear regression models stratified by HIV status were used to examine cross-sectional associations of BMI and WC by NP domain; repeated measures analyses assessed baseline BMI and WC in association with longitudinal change in NP. Covariates included sociodemographic, behavioral, and HIV-related characteristics. Results: At baseline among all women, the median age was 45 years, 65% were Non-Latinx Black women, and 45% were obese women. Obese WLWH (BMI≥30.0 kg/m2) had poorer executive function (ß=-2.27, 95%CI [-4.46, -0.07]) versus WLWH with healthy BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m2). Longitudinally over ~8 years, obese versus overweight WWOH improved on memory (ß=2.19, 95%CI [0.13, 4.26]), however overweight versus healthy WWOH experienced declining memory (ß= -2.67, 95%CI [-5.40, -0.07]). Increasing WC was associated with declining executive, processing speed, and motor function (p's<0.05); an at-risk WC was associated with improved memory (ß=1.81, 95%CI [0.19, 3.44]) among WWOH. Among WLWH, increasing BMI was associated with improved learning (ß=0.07, 95%CI [0.00, 0.15]. Conclusion: Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses evaluating the associations of BMI and WC and NP were mixed compared to previous reports. This illustrates the importance of sociodemographic characteristics, baseline levels of exposures and outcomes, HIV status, temporality of measurements, and other factors when evaluating aging HIV epidemiology study results.

Variations in Genes Encoding Human Papillomavirus Binding Receptors and Susceptibility to Cervical Precancer.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer oncogenesis starts with human papillomavirus (HPV) cell entry after binding to host cell surface receptors; however, the mechanism is not fully known. We examined polymorphisms in receptor genes hypothesized to be necessary for HPV cell entry and assessed their associations with clinical progression to precancer. METHODS: African American women (N = 1,728) from the MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study were included. Two case-control study designs were used-cases with histology-based precancer (CIN3+) and controls without; and cases with cytology-based precancer [high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL)] and controls without. SNPs in candidate genes (SDC1, SDC2, SDC3, SDC4, GPC1, GPC2, GPC3, GPC4, GPC5, GPC6, and ITGA6) were genotyped using an Illumina Omni2.5-quad beadchip. Logistic regression was used to assess the associations in all participants and by HPV genotypes, after adjusting for age, human immunodeficiency virus serostatus, CD4 T cells, and three principal components for ancestry. RESULTS: Minor alleles in SNPs rs77122854 (SDC3), rs73971695, rs79336862 (ITGA6), rs57528020, rs201337456, rs11987725 (SDC2), rs115880588, rs115738853, and rs9301825 (GPC5) were associated with increased odds of both CIN3+ and HSIL, whereas, rs35927186 (GPC5) was found to decrease the odds for both outcomes (P value ≤ 0.01). Among those infected with Alpha-9 HPV types, rs722377 (SDC3), rs16860468, rs2356798 (ITGA6), rs11987725 (SDC2), and rs3848051 (GPC5) were associated with increased odds of both precancer outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphisms in genes that encode binding receptors for HPV cell entry may play a role in cervical precancer progression. IMPACT: Our findings are hypothesis generating and support further exploration of mechanisms of HPV entry genes that may help prevent progression to cervical precancer.

Longitudinal Assessment of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Score in the Era of Contemporary HIV and Hepatitis C Virus Treatment.

BACKGROUND: The trajectory of liver fibrosis is not well understood in the contemporary era of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy. METHODS: We assessed the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) score, aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) in 116 women with HIV/HCV coinfection over a 4-year period. Random-effects linear regression models examined the rate of fibrosis change 1-2 years before starting HCV treatment, within 1 year before starting (peri-HCV treatment), within 1 year after and 1-2 years post-HCV treatment in unadjusted and adjusted models including age, race, and changes from pretreatment of factors that might affect fibrosis (eg, alcohol, integrase strand inhibitor [INSTI] use, waist circumference, CD4 count). RESULTS: INSTI use nearly doubled from pre- to peri-HCV treatment. In unadjusted analysis, there was a 3.3% rate of rise in ELF pre-HCV treatment, 2.2% and 3.6% rate of decline during the peri- and 1-year post-HCV treatment period, respectively, followed by a 0.3% rise. Similar findings were observed for APRI and FIB-4. There was little effect on the estimated fibrosis trajectories after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: The apparent lack of decline in biomarkers of liver fibrosis beyond 1 year after HCV cure suggests that continued monitoring of liver fibrosis and interventions to mitigate progression in people with HIV after HCV cure remains essential.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Is Associated With Elevated FibroScan-Aspartate Aminotransferase (FAST) Score.

BACKGROUND: Whether human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with the development of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) remains unclear. The FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (FAST) score was developed to identify patients who have histologic NASH with high nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS ≥4) and significant liver fibrosis (≥F2), which has been associated with higher risk of end-stage liver disease. We examined whether HIV infection is associated with elevated FAST score in a large United States (US) cohort. METHODS: Vibration-controlled transient elastography was performed in 1309 women without history of chronic viral hepatitis enrolled from 10 US sites: 928 women with HIV (WWH) and 381 women without HIV (WWOH). We used multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations of HIV, demographic, lifestyle, and metabolic factors with an elevated (>0.35) FAST score. RESULTS: Median age of WWH and WWOH was 51 years and 48 years, respectively. Most (90%) WWH were on antiretroviral therapy and 72% had undetectable HIV RNA. Prevalence of elevated FAST score was higher among WWH compared to WWOH (6.3% vs 1.8%, respectively; P = .001). On multivariable analysis, HIV infection was associated with 3.7-fold higher odds of elevated FAST score (P = .002), and greater waist circumference (per 10 cm) was associated with 1.7-fold higher odds (P < .001). In analysis limited to WWH, undetectable HIV RNA and current protease inhibitor use were independently associated with lower odds of elevated FAST score. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that HIV is an independent risk factor for NASH with significant activity and fibrosis. Studies validating FAST score in persons with HIV are warranted.

Association of elevated serum aminotransferase levels with chronic kidney disease measures: hispanic community health study/study of latinos.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown an association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear whether the association is independent of metabolic syndrome. METHODS: Data from 13,006 participants aged 18 to 74 years in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) without viral hepatitis, excessive alcohol consumption, or high transferrin saturation levels were analyzed. Suspected NAFLD was defined as presence of sex-specific elevations in serum aminotransferase levels (aspartate aminotransferase (AST) > 37 U/L or alanine aminotransferase (ALT) > 40 U/L for men and AST or ALT > 31 U/L for women). Logistic regression was used to examine cross-sectional associations of elevated serum aminotransferase levels with low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 based on cystatin C), and with high urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) (> 17 mg/g in men and > 25 mg/ g in women) in separate models adjusting for demographic characteristics and metabolic syndrome. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 41 (0.27) years, and 45 % were male. Elevated serum aminotransferase levels were noted in 18.8 % of the population and were associated with greater odds of high UACR (OR = 1.31; 95 % CI = 1.10, 1.56) after adjusting for demographic characteristics; this association became non-significant after adjustment for metabolic syndrome (OR = 1.11, 95 % CI = 0.92, 1.33). In contrast, elevated serum aminotransferase levels were not associated with low eGFR (odds ratio (OR) = 0.73; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.45, 1.18) after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of diverse U.S. Hispanic Latino adults, elevated serum aminotransferase levels were not independently associated with measures of CKD.

Decreases in markers of monocyte/macrophage activation after hepatitis C eradication in HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfected women.

OBJECTIVE: Eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in HIV disease decreases liver and non-liver-related morbidity and mortality. Elevated markers of monocyte/macrophage activation (soluble CD163 and sCD14) are associated with excess non-AIDS morbidity and mortality in HIV. We examined the effect of HCV eradication on these markers in relation to change in hepatic fibrosis. DESIGN: A nested substudy within a longitudinal observational cohort. METHODS: We studied 126 HIV/HCV-coinfected women successfully treated for HCV, with undetectable HCV RNA at least 12 weeks after therapy completion. sCD163 and sCD14 were measured in serum collected before and after HCV eradication. Results were correlated with changes in markers of hepatic fibrosis. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 56.3 years, mean CD4+ cell count was 615, and 72% had suppressed HIV RNA. After treatment, sCD163 and sCD14 levels significantly decreased from pre-treatment levels in unadjusted analyses. After adjusting for age, race, hepatic fibrosis status, baseline HCV RNA, CD4 count and HIV RNA status, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use, the decreases in sCD163 and sCD14 remained significant. Decrease in pre-treatment to post-treatment sCD163 were significantly positively correlated with changes in FIB-4 (r = 0.250, P = 0.005) and APRI (r = 0.262, P = 0.003); similarly decrease in sCD14 was significantly positively correlated with changes in FIB-4 (r = 0.333, P = 0.0001) and APRI (r = 0.457, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: HCV eradication is associated with significant reductions in monocyte/macrophage activation markers that correlate with reductions in markers of hepatic fibrosis. These findings support broad access to and early initiation of HCV treatment in order to decrease immune activation and improve health in HIV-infected persons.

Association of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus infection with long-term outcomes post-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in a disadvantaged urban community.

BACKGROUND: HIV and HCV have been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Their impact on long-term outcomes following ST-segment myocardial infarction (STEMI) has not been previously studied. METHODS: We leveraged data from a STEMI registry (n = 1208) at an inner-city health system to assess the influence of HIV and HCV on post-STEMI outcomes. Cox regression was used to compare HIV-monoinfected (n = 22), HCV-monoinfected (n = 26) and HIV-HCV-coinfected patients (n = 8) with the neither-infected group (n = 1152) with regard to death, death or any readmission, and death or CVD readmission. RESULTS: The cohort was majority black or Hispanic. Median follow-up was 4.3 years. Compared to the neither-infected group, the HIV-monoinfected group showed near-significantly higher risks of death or any readmission (HR = 1.62, 95% CI = 0.96, 2.74) and death or CVD readmission (HR = 1.82, 95% CI = 0.98, 3.39) after full adjustment. On similar comparison, the HCV-monoinfected group exhibited significantly higher risks of death (HR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.05, 4.15) and death or any readmission (HR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.07, 2.65), whereas the HIV-HCV-coinfected group showed higher risk of death (HR = 6.51, 95% CI = 2.28, 18.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort composed mostly of race-ethnic minorities, HIV monoinfection tended to be associated with 1.6-to-1.8-fold higher risk of death or readmission for any cause or CVD over long-term follow-up compared to neither infection, whereas HCV monoinfection was associated with 1.7-to-2.1-fold higher risk of death and death or any readmission, and HIV-HCV coinfection with 6.5-fold higher risk of death. These associations require further study in larger populations, but highlight the importance of identifying and treating HIV and HCV in patients presenting with STEMI.

African Mitochondrial DNA Haplogroup L2 Is Associated With Slower Decline of ß-cell Function and Lower Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus in Non-Hispanic, Black Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to metabolic diseases may be influenced by mitochondrial genetic variability among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH), but remains unexplored in populations with African ancestry. We investigated the association between mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroups and the homeostatic model assessments of ß-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), as well as incident diabetes mellitus (DM), among Black women living with or at risk for HIV. METHODS: Women without DM who had fasting glucose (FG) and insulin (FI) data for ≥2 visits were included. Haplogroups were inferred from genotyping data using HaploGrep. HOMA-B and HOMA-IR were calculated using FG and FI data. Incident DM was defined by a combination of FG ≥ 126 mg/dL, the use of DM medication, a DM diagnosis, or hemoglobin A1c ≥ 6.5%. We compared HOMA-B, HOMA-IR, and incident DM by haplogroups and assessed the associations between HOMA-B and HOMA-IR and DM by haplogroup. RESULTS: Of 1288 women (933 living with HIV and 355 living without HIV), PLWH had higher initial HOMA-B and HOMA-IR than people living without HIV. PLWH with haplogroup L2 had a slower decline in HOMA-B per year (Pinteraction = .02) and a lower risk of incident DM (hazard ratio [HR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], .32-.82) than PLWH with other haplogroups after adjustments for age, body mass index, combination antiretroviral therapy use, CD4 cell counts, and HIV RNA. The impact of HOMA-IR on incident DM was less significant in those with haplogroup L2, compared to non-L2 (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, .70-2.38] vs 4.13 [95% CI, 3.28-5.22], respectively; Pinteraction < .01), among PLWH. CONCLUSIONS: Mitochondrial genetic variation is associated with ß-cell functions and incident DM in non-Hispanic, Black women with HIV and alters the relationship between insulin resistance and DM.

Association Between Plasma Antibody Responses and Risk for Cryptococcus-Associated Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome.

Background: Initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals with cryptococcal meningitis places them at risk for Cryptococcus-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (C-IRIS). The relationship between antibody immunity and C-IRIS risk has not been investigated. Methods: We compared plasma levels of immunoglobulins, C. neoformans glucuronoxylomannan (GXM) capsule-specific and laminarin (Lam)-binding IgM and IgG, and percentages of peripheral blood total and memory B cells between 27 HIV-infected patients with CM who developed C-IRIS and 63 who did not, and evaluated associations of these parameters with risk of C-IRIS. Results: Prior to initiation of ART, plasma IgM, Lam-binding IgM (Lam-IgM), Lam-IgG, and GXM-IgM levels were significantly lower in patients who developed C-IRIS than those who did not. Multivariate analysis revealed significant inverse associations between C-IRIS and IgM (P = .0003), Lam-IgM (P = .0005), Lam-IgG (P = .002), and GXM-IgM (P = .002) independent of age, sex, HIV viral load, CD4+ T-cell count, and cerebrospinal fluid fungal burden. There were no associations between C-IRIS and total or memory B cells. Discussion: Antibody profiles that include plasma IgM, Lam-IgM, Lam-IgG, and/or GXM-IgM may have value in furthering our understanding of C-IRIS pathogenesis and hold promise as candidate biomarkers of C-IRIS risk.

Racial differences in human papilloma virus types amongst United States women with HIV and cervical precancer.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies reported a lower human papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) prevalence in cervical precancer among African American than Caucasian women in the general population. We assessed this relationship in women with HIV. DESIGN: Women living with or at risk for HIV in the Women's Interagency HIV Study were followed semi-annually with Pap tests, colposcopy/histology (if indicated), and collection of cervicovaginal lavage samples for HPV testing by PCR. Racial and ethnic groups were defined using genomic Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs). RESULTS: Among 175 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 3 or worse (CIN-3+), 154 were diagnosed in women with HIV. African American (27%) and Hispanic (37%) cases were significantly less likely than Caucasian (62%) women to test positive for HPV16 (P = 0.01). In multivariate logistic regression models, these associations remained significant for African Americans (odds ratio = 0.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04-0.44; P = 0.001) but not Hispanics, after controlling for HIV status, CD4 count, history of AIDS, age, smoking, and sexual behavior. Limiting the analysis to women with HIV did not change the findings. CONCLUSION: HPV16 prevalence is lower in African American compared with Caucasian women with HIV and cervical precancer, independent of immune status. Future studies to determine why these racial differences exist are warranted, and whether there are similar associations between race and invasive cervical cancer in women with HIV. Further, HPV types not covered by quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines may play an especially important role in cervical precancer among HIV-positive African American women, a possible advantage to using nonavalent HPV vaccine in this population.

Macrophage Activation and the Tumor Necrosis Factor Cascade in Hepatitis C Disease Progression Among HIV-Infected Women Participating in the Women's Interagency HIV Study.

BACKGROUND: HIV/hepatitis C-coinfected persons experience more rapid liver disease progression than hepatitis C virus (HCV) monoinfected persons, even in the setting of potent antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We sought to articulate the role of macrophage activation and inflammation in liver disease progression by measuring serial soluble markers in HIV/HCV-coinfected women. We compared markers measured during retrospectively defined periods of rapid liver disease progression to periods where little or no liver disease progression occurred. Liver disease progression was defined by liver biopsy, liver-related death or the serum markers AST-to-platelet ratio index and FIB-4. Soluble CD14, sCD163, lipopolysaccharide (LPS), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor II, interleukin-6, and chemokine ligand 2 (CCL 2) were measured at 3 time points over 5 years. RESULTS: One hundred six time intervals were included in the analysis: including 31 from liver disease progressors and 75 from nonprogressors. LPS, sCD14, interleukin-6, and CCL2 levels did not differ in slope or quantity over time between rapid liver disease progressors and nonprogressors. TNFRII and sCD163 were significantly higher in liver disease progressors at (P = 0.002 and <0.0001 respectively) and preceding (P = 0.01 and 0.003 respectively) the liver fibrosis outcome in unadjusted models, with similar values when adjusted for HIV RNA and CD4 count. CONCLUSIONS: In women with HIV/HCV coinfection, higher sCD163 levels, a marker of macrophage activation, and TNFRII levels, implying activation of the TNF-α system, were associated with liver disease progression. Our results provide an addition to the growing body of evidence regarding the relationship between macrophage activation, inflammation, and liver disease progression in HIV/HCV coinfection.

A statistical method for studying correlated rare events and their risk factors.

Longitudinal studies of rare events such as cervical high-grade lesions or colorectal polyps that can recur often involve correlated binary data. Risk factor for these events cannot be reliably examined using conventional statistical methods. For example, logistic regression models that incorporate generalized estimating equations often fail to converge or provide inaccurate results when analyzing data of this type. Although exact methods have been reported, they are complex and computationally difficult. The current paper proposes a mathematically straightforward and easy-to-use two-step approach involving (i) an additive model to measure associations between a rare or uncommon correlated binary event and potential risk factors and (ii) a permutation test to estimate the statistical significance of these associations. Simulation studies showed that the proposed method reliably tests and accurately estimates the associations of exposure with correlated binary rare events. This method was then applied to a longitudinal study of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype and risk of cervical high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women. Results showed statistically significant associations of two HLA alleles among HIV-negative but not HIV-positive women, suggesting that immune status may modify the HLA and cervical HSIL association. Overall, the proposed method avoids model nonconvergence problems and provides a computationally simple, accurate, and powerful approach for the analysis of risk factor associations with rare/uncommon correlated binary events.

Hepatitis C viremia is associated with cytomegalovirus IgG antibody levels in HIV-infected women.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with HIV infection exhibit high cytomegalovirus (CMV) IgG levels, but there are few data regarding the association of hepatitis C virus (HCV) with the immune response against CMV. METHODS: Associations of HCV with CMV seropositivity and CMV IgG levels were studied in 635 HIV-infected women, 187 of whom were HCV-seropositive, with adjustment in multivariable models for age, race/ethnicity, and HIV disease characteristics. Eighty one percent of the women reported receipt of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) prior to or at CMV testing. RESULTS: In adjusted models women with chronic HCV had higher CMV IgG levels than those without HCV RNA (ß = 2.86, 95% CI:0.89 - 4.83; P = 0.004). The association of HCV RNA with CMV IgG differed by age (P(interaction) = 0.0007), with a strong association observed among women in the low and middle age tertiles (≤ 45.3 years of age; ß = 6.21, 95% CI:3.30 - 9.11, P<0.0001) but not among women in the high age tertile. CMV IgG levels were not associated with non-invasive measures of liver disease, APRI and FIB-4, or with HCV RNA level and adjustment for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) IgG levels did not affect the association between HCV and CMV. CONCLUSIONS: CMV IgG levels are higher in HCV/HIV co-infected women than in HIV mono-infected women. Further research on the association of HCV with CMV IgG is indicated because prior studies have found CMV IgG to be associated with morbidity and mortality in the general population and subclinical carotid artery disease in HIV-infected patients.

Marginal and mixed-effects models in the analysis of human papillomavirus natural history data.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) natural history has several characteristics that, at least from a statistical perspective, are not often encountered elsewhere in infectious disease and cancer research. There are, for example, multiple HPV types, and infection by each HPV type may be considered separate events. Although concurrent infections are common, the prevalence, incidence, and duration/persistence of each individual HPV can be separately measured. However, repeated measures involving the same subject tend to be correlated. The probability of detecting any given HPV type, for example, is greater among individuals who are currently positive for at least one other HPV type. Serial testing for HPV over time represents a second form of repeated measures. Statistical inferences that fail to take these correlations into account would be invalid. However, methods that do not use all the data would be inefficient. Marginal and mixed-effects models can address these issues but are not frequently used in HPV research. The current study provides an overview of these methods and then uses HPV data from a cohort of HIV-positive women to illustrate how they may be applied, and compare their results. The findings show the greater efficiency of these models compared with standard logistic regression and Cox models. Because mixed-effects models estimate subject-specific associations, they sometimes gave much higher effect estimates than marginal models, which estimate population-averaged associations. Overall, the results show that marginal and mixed-effects models are efficient for studying HPV natural history, but also highlight the importance of understanding how these models differ.