Impact of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer on ethnic health inequities in New Zealand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: There are large inequities in the lung cancer burden for the Indigenous Maori population of New Zealand. We model the potential lifetime health gains, equity impacts and cost-effectiveness of a national low-dose CT (LDCT) screening programme for lung cancer in smokers aged 55-74 years with a 30 pack-year history, and for formers smokers who have quit within the last 15 years. DESIGN: A Markov macrosimulation model estimated: health benefits (health-adjusted life-years (HALYs)), costs and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening. Input parameters came from literature and NZ-linked health datasets. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Population aged 55-74 years in 2011. INTERVENTIONS: Biennial LDCT screening for lung cancer compared with usual care. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the average difference in costs and HALYs between the screened and the unscreened populations. Equity analyses included substituting non-Maori values for Maori values of background morbidity, mortality and stage-specific survival. Changes in inequities in lung cancer survival and 'health-adjusted life expectancy' (HALE) were measured. RESULTS: LDCT screening in NZ is likely to be cost-effective for the total population: NZ$34 400 per HALY gained (95% uncertainty interval NZ$27 500 to NZ$42 900) and for Maori separately (using a threshold of gross domestic product per capita NZ$45 000). Health gains per capita for Maori females were twice that for non-Maori females and 25% greater for Maori males compared with non-Maori males. LDCT screening will narrow absolute inequities in HALE and lung cancer mortality for Maori, but will slightly increase relative inequities in mortality from lung cancer (compared with non-Maori) due to differential stage-specific survival. CONCLUSION: A national biennial LDCT lung cancer screening programme in New Zealand is likely to be cost-effective, will improve total population health and reduce health inequities for Maori. Attention must be paid to addressing ethnic inequities in stage-specific lung cancer survival.

Cost-effectiveness of a low-dose computed tomography screening programme for lung cancer in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVES: The cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer is uncertain. This study estimated the health gains, costs (net health system, and including 'unrelated') and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening among 55-74 years olds with a smoking history of at least 30 pack years, and (if a former smoker) having quit within last 15 years, in New Zealand. METHODS: We used a macrosimulation stage shift model with New Zealand-specific lung cancer incidence rates and intervention parameters from the National Lung Screening Trial, a health system perspective, and a lifetime horizon for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 3% per annum. We also examined heterogeneity by gender, ethnicity (Maori (indigenous population) versus non-Maori), age and smoking status. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: We estimated 0.067 QALYs gained (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 0.044 to 0.095) per eligible participant, at a cost of US$2843 ($2067-3797; 2011 $US). The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$44,000 per QALY gained (95 % UI US$27,000 to US$70,000). The ICER was substantially lower for Maori, at US$26,000 per QALY gained (95 % UI US$17,000 to US$39,000). The cost-effectiveness varied by socio-demographics, from US$21,000 for 70-74 year old Maori females to US$60,000 for 55-59 year old non-Maori males. The two scenarios that lowered the ICER the most were halving the screening costs (ICER = US$33,000 per QALY), and improving the sensitivity (from 93.8% to 98%) and specificity (from 73.4% to 95%) of the screening test (ICER = US$23,000 per QALY). Based on a threshold of GDP per capita per QALY gained (i.e. US$30,000), LDCT screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective in New Zealand for the proposed target population under our modelling assumptions. However, it is likely to be cost-effective for Maori, a population group which carries a disproportionately high disease burden from lung cancer.

Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country.

AIM: To estimate the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness of cataract surgery when expedited as a falls prevention strategy (reducing the waiting time for surgery by 12 months) and as a routine procedure. METHODS: An established injurious falls model designed for the New Zealand (NZ) population (aged 65+ years) was adapted. Key parameters relating to cataracts were sourced from the literature and the NZ Ministry of Health. A health system perspective with discounting at 3% was used. RESULTS: Expedited cataract surgery for 1 year of incident cases was found to generate a total 240 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 161 to 360) at net health system costs of NZ$2.43 million (95% UI 2.02 to 2.82 million) over the remaining lifetimes of the surgery group. This intervention was cost-effective by widely accepted standards with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NZ$10 600 (US$7540) (95% UI NZ$6030 to NZ$15 700) per QALY gained. The level of cost-effectiveness did not vary greatly by sex, ethnicity and previous fall history, but was higher for the 65-69 age group compared with the oldest age group of 85-89 years (NZ$7000 vs NZ$14 200 per QALY gained). Comparing cataract surgery with no surgery, the ICER was even more favourable at NZ$4380 (95% UI 2410 to 7210) per QALY. Considering only the benefits for vision improvement and excluding the benefits of falls prevention, it was still favourable at NZ$9870 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Expedited cataract surgery appears very cost-effective. Routine cataract surgery is itself very cost-effective, and its value appears largely driven by the falls prevention benefits.

Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: An analysis of publicly funded health events from New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: There is little systematic assessment of how total health expenditure is distributed across diseases and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to use statistical methods to disaggregate all publicly funded health expenditure by disease and comorbidities in order to answer three research questions: (1) What is health expenditure by disease phase for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in New Zealand? (2) Is the cost of having two NCDs more or less than that expected given the independent costs of each NCD? (3) How is total health spending disaggregated by NCDs across age and by sex? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used linked data for all adult New Zealanders for publicly funded events, including hospitalisation, outpatient, pharmaceutical, laboratory testing, and primary care from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2014. These data include 18.9 million person-years and $26.4 billion in spending (US$ 2016). We used case definition algorithms to identify if a person had any of six NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease [CVD], diabetes, musculoskeletal, neurological, and a chronic lung/liver/kidney [LLK] disease). Indicator variables were used to identify the presence of any of the 15 possible comorbidity pairings of these six NCDs. Regression was used to estimate excess annual health expenditure per person. Cause deletion methods were used to estimate total population expenditure by disease. A majority (59%) of health expenditure was attributable to NCDs. Expenditure due to diseases was generally highest in the year of diagnosis and year of death. A person having two diseases simultaneously generally had greater health expenditure than the expected sum of having the diseases separately, for all 15 comorbidity pairs except the CVD-cancer pair. For example, a 60-64-year-old female with none of the six NCDs had $633 per annum expenditure. If she had both CVD and chronic LLK, additional expenditure for CVD separately was $6,443/$839/$9,225 for the first year of diagnosis/prevalent years/last year of life if dying of CVD; additional expenditure for chronic LLK separately was $6,443/$1,291/$9,051; and the additional comorbidity expenditure of having both CVD and LLK was $2,456 (95% confidence interval [CI] $2,238-$2,674). The pattern was similar for males (e.g., additional comorbidity expenditure for a 60-64-year-old male with CVD and chronic LLK was $2,498 [95% CI $2,264-$2,632]). In addition to this, the excess comorbidity costs for a person with two diseases was greater at younger ages, e.g., excess expenditure for 45-49-year-old males with CVD and chronic LLK was 10 times higher than for 75-79-year-old males and six times higher for females. At the population level, 23.8% of total health expenditure was attributable to higher costs of having one of the 15 comorbidity pairs over and above the six NCDs separately; of the remaining expenditure, CVD accounted for 18.7%, followed by musculoskeletal (16.2%), neurological (14.4%), cancer (14.1%), chronic LLK disease (7.4%), and diabetes (5.5%). Major limitations included incomplete linkage to all costed events (although these were largely non-NCD events) and missing private expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The costs of having two NCDs simultaneously is typically superadditive, and more so for younger adults. Neurological and musculoskeletal diseases contributed the largest health system costs, in accord with burden of disease studies finding that they contribute large morbidity. Just as burden of disease methodology has advanced the understanding of disease burden, there is a need to create disease-based costing studies that facilitate the disaggregation of health budgets at a national level.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.

OBJECTIVE: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence. RESULTS: The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Maori (Indigenous)/non-Maori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :.

Cost-effectiveness of a low-dose computed tomography screening programme for lung cancer in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVES: The cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer is uncertain. This study estimated the health gains, costs (net health system, and including 'unrelated') and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening among 55-74 years olds with a smoking history of at least 30 pack years, and (if a former smoker) having quit within last 15 years, in New Zealand. METHODS: We used a macrosimulation stage shift model with New Zealand-specific lung cancer incidence rates and intervention parameters from the National Lung Screening Trial, a health system perspective, and a lifetime horizon for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 3% per annum. We also examined heterogeneity by gender, ethnicity (Maori (indigenous population) versus non-Maori), age and current versus ex-smoking status. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: We estimated 0.037 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.024-0.053) per eligible participant, at a cost of US$3606 ($2689-4681). The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$104,000 per QALY gained (95% UI US$59,000-US$175,000). The cost-effectiveness varied moderately by socio-demographics, with the 'best' ICER being US$52,000 for 70-74 year old Maori females and the 'worst' ICER being US$142,000 for 55-59 year old non-Maori females. The ICER varied little by current smoking status, due to higher competing mortality risk limiting QALY gains for current smokers. The two scenarios that lowered the ICER the most were increasing the screening uptake to 100% (ICER = US$50,000 per QALY), and improving the sensitivity (from 93.8%-98%) and specificity (from 73.4%-95%) of the screening test (ICER = US$42,000 per QALY). Based on a threshold of GDP per capita per QALY gained (i.e. US$30,000), LDCT screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective in New Zealand for any sociodemographic group.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model to Aid in the Management of Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: Predicting outcomes prior to elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (AAA) requires critical decision making, as the treatment offered is a prophylactic procedure to prevent death from a ruptured AAA. The aim of this work was to develop and validate a model that may predict outcomes for patients with an AAA and hence aid in clinical decision making. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was built to simulate the natural history of a patient with an AAA and to predict the 30 day and 2-5 year survival of patients undergoing treatment and surveillance. The input parameters of AAA behavior and impact of comorbidities on survival were derived from the published literature and the New Zealand national life tables. The model was externally validated using a cohort of patients that underwent AAA repair (n = 320) and a cohort of patients undergoing small AAA surveillance (n = 376). All patients had completed at least 5 years of follow up. RESULTS: The model was run three times for each data set to test. This produced a SD < 1%, indicating excellent reproducibility. The observed 30 day mortality for the patients undergoing AAA repair was 9/320 (2.8%) and the expected (model predicted) mortality was 3.8% (c-statistic 0.87 [95 confidence interval 0.75-1.0]). The c-statistic for the predicted 2-5 year survival ranged from 0.68 to 0.71 for the repaired AAA cohort and 0.69 to 0.73 for patients with a small AAA on surveillance. CONCLUSION: The AAA clinical decision tool has the ability to accurately predict the 5 year survival of patients with an AAA. This tool can be used during clinical decision making to better inform clinicians and patients of long-term outcomes. Further validation studies in a wider AAA population are required to test the broader clinical utility of this AAA clinical decision tool.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame.

OBJECTIVE: There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3. METHODS: Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs. RESULTS: All selected tobacco endgame strategies were associated with reductions in SP by 2025, down from 34.7%/14.1% for Maori (indigenous population)/non-Maori in 2011 to 16.0%/6.8% for tax increases; 11.2%/5.6% for the TFG; 17.8%/7.3% for the outlet reduction; 0% for the sinking lid; and 9.3%/4.8% for the combined strategy. Major health gains accrued over the remainder of the 2011 population's lives ranging from 28 900 QALYs (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI)): 16 500 to 48 200; outlet reduction) to 282 000 QALYs (95%UI: 189 000 to 405 000; sinking lid) compared with business-as-usual (3% discounting). The timing of health gain and cost savings greatly differed for the various strategies (with accumulated health gain peaking in 2040 for the sinking lid and 2070 for the TFG). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing endgame strategies is needed to achieve tobacco endgame targets and reduce inequalities in smoking. Given such strategies are new, modelling studies provide provisional information on what approaches may be best.

Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings.

OBJECTIVE: The health gains and cost savings from tobacco tax increase peak many decades into the future. Policy-makers may take a shorter-term perspective and be particularly interested in the health of working-age adults (given their role in economic productivity). Therefore, we estimated the impact of tobacco taxes in this population within a 10-year horizon. METHODS: As per previous modelling work, we used a multistate life table model with 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, parameterised with rich national data by sex, age and ethnicity. The intervention modelled was 10% annual increases in tobacco tax from 2011 to 2020 in the New Zealand population (n=4.4 million in 2011). The perspective was that of the health system, and the discount rate used was 3%. RESULTS: For this 10-year time horizon, the total health gain from the tobacco tax in discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the 20-65 year age group (age at QALY accrual) was 180 QALYs or 1.6% of the lifetime QALYs gained in this age group (11 300 QALYs). Nevertheless, for this short time horizon: (1) cost savings in this group amounted to NZ$10.6 million (equivalent to US$7.1 million; 95% uncertainty interval: NZ$6.0 million to NZ$17.7 million); and (2) around two-thirds of the QALY gains for all ages occurred in the 20-65 year age group. Focusing on just the preretirement and postretirement ages, the QALY gains in each of the 60-64 and 65-69 year olds were 11.5% and 10.6%, respectively, of the 268 total QALYs gained for all age groups in 2011-2020. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the health benefit over a 10-year horizon from increasing tobacco taxes is accrued in the working-age population (20-65 years). There remains a need for more work on the associated productivity benefits of such health gains.

Colorectal Cancer Screening: How Health Gains and Cost-Effectiveness Vary by Ethnic Group, the Impact on Health Inequalities, and the Optimal Age Range to Screen.

Background: Screening programs consistently underserve indigenous populations despite a higher overall burden of cancer. In this study, we explore the likely health gains and cost-effectiveness of a national colorectal cancer screening program for the indigenous Maori population of New Zealand (NZ).Methods: A Markov model estimated: health benefits (quality-adjusted life-year; QALY), costs, and cost-effectiveness of biennial immunochemical fecal occult blood testing (FOBTi) of 50- to 74-year-olds from 2011. Input parameters came from literature reviews, the NZ Bowel Screening Programme Pilot, and NZ linked health datasets. Equity analyses substituted non-Maori values for Maori values of background (noncolorectal cancer) morbidity and mortality, colorectal cancer survival and incidence, screening coverage, and stage-specific survival. We measured the change in "quality-adjusted life expectancy" (QALE) as a result of the intervention.Results: Based upon a threshold of GDP per capita (NZ$45,000), colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is cost-effective: NZ$2,930 (US$1,970) per QALY gained [95% uncertainty interval: cost saving to $6,850 (US$4,610)]. Modeled health gains per capita for Maori were less than for non-Maori: half for 50- to 54-year-olds (0.031 QALYs per person for Maori vs. 0.058 for non-Maori), and a fifth (0.003 c.f. 0.016) for 70- to 74-year-olds and ethnic inequalities in QALE increased with colorectal cancer screening.Conclusions: Colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is likely to be cost-effective but risks increasing inequalities in health for Maori.Impact: To avoid or mitigate the generation of further health inequalities, attention should be given to underserved population groups when planning and implementing screening programs. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(9); 1391-400. ©2017 AACR.

A screening program to test and treat for Helicobacter pylori infection: Cost-utility analysis by age, sex and ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends all countries consider screening for H. pylori to prevent gastric cancer. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a H. pylori serology-based screening program in New Zealand, a country that includes population groups with relatively high gastric cancer rates. METHODS: A Markov model was developed using life-tables and morbidity data from a national burden of disease study. The modelled screening program reduced the incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer attributable to H. pylori, if infection was identified by serology screening, and for the population expected to be reached by the screening program. A health system perspective was taken and detailed individual-level costing data was used. RESULTS: For adults aged 25-69 years old, nation-wide screening for H. pylori was found to have an incremental cost of US$196 million (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: $182-$211 million) with health gains of 14,200 QALYs (95% UI: 5,100-26,300). Cost per QALY gained was US$16,500 ($7,600-$38,400) in the total population and 17% (6%-29%) of future gastric cancer cases could be averted with lifetime follow-up. A targeted screening program for Maori only (indigenous population), was more cost-effective at US$8,000 ($3,800-$18,500) per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling study found that H. pylori screening was likely to be cost-effective in this high-income country, particularly for the indigenous population. While further research is needed to help clarify the precise benefits, costs and adverse effects of such screening programs, there seems a reasonable case for policy-makers to give pilot programs consideration, particularly for any population groups with relatively elevated rates of gastric cancer.

Correction: Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856.].

Cancer Care Coordinators to Improve Tamoxifen Persistence in Breast Cancer: How Heterogeneity in Baseline Prognosis Impacts on Cost-Effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a cancer care coordinator (CCC) in helping women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) early breast cancer persist with tamoxifen for 5 years. METHODS: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of a CCC across eight breast cancer subtypes, defined by progesterone receptor (PR) status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, and local/regional spread. These subtypes range from excellent to poorer prognoses. The CCC helped in improving tamoxifen persistence by providing information, checking-in by phone, and "troubleshooting" concerns. We constructed a Markov macrosimulation model to estimate health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs) and health system costs in New Zealand, compared with no CCC. Participants were modeled until death or till the age of 110 years. Some input parameters (e.g., the impact of a CCC on tamoxifen persistence) had sparse evidence. Therefore, we used estimates with generous uncertainty and conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness of a CCC for regional ER+/PR-/HER2+ breast cancer (worst prognosis) was NZ $23,400 (US $15,800) per QALY gained, compared with NZ $368,500 (US $248,800) for local ER+/PR+/HER2- breast cancer (best prognosis). Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of NZ $45,000 (US $30,400) per QALY, a CCC would be cost-effective only in the four subtypes with the worst prognoses. CONCLUSIONS: There is value in investigating cost-effectiveness by different subtypes within a disease. In this example of breast cancer, the poorer the prognosis, the greater the health gains from a CCC and the better the cost-effectiveness. Incorporating heterogeneity in a cost-utility analysis is important and can inform resource allocation decisions. It is also feasible to undertake in practice.

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.

BACKGROUND: Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. RESULTS: All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted). CONCLUSIONS: These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.

Adjuvant Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer by Age and Hormone Receptor Status: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) monoclonal antibody trastuzumab improves outcomes in patients with node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer. Given trastuzumab's high cost, we aimed to estimate its cost-effectiveness by heterogeneity in age and estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, which has previously been unexplored, to assist prioritisation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov macro-simulation model, with a lifetime horizon, comparing a 12-mo regimen of trastuzumab with chemotherapy alone using the latest (2014) effectiveness measures from landmark randomised trials. A New Zealand (NZ) health system perspective was adopted, employing high-quality national administrative data. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years for trastuzumab versus chemotherapy alone are two times higher (2.33 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 2.29-2.37) for the worst prognosis (ER-/PR-) subtype compared to the best prognosis (ER+/PR+) subtype, causing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the former to be less than half those of the latter for the age groups from 25-29 to 90-94 y (0.44 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 0.43-0.45). If we were to strictly apply an arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the NZ gross domestic product per capita (2011 purchasing power parity [PPP]-adjusted: US$30,300; €23,700; £21,200), our study suggests that trastuzumab (2011 PPP-adjusted US$45,400/€35,900/£21,900 for 1 y at formulary prices) may not be cost-effective for ER+ (which are 61% of all) node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer patients but cost-effective for ER-/PR- subtypes (37% of all cases) to age 69 y. Market entry of trastuzumab biosimilars will likely reduce the ICER to below this threshold for premenopausal ER+/PR- cancer but not for ER+/PR+ cancer. Sensitivity analysis using the best-case effectiveness measure for ER+ cancer had the same result. A key limitation was a lack of treatment-effect data by hormone receptor subtype. Heterogeneity was restricted to age and hormone receptor status; tumour size/grade heterogeneity could be explored in future work. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights how cost-effectiveness can vary greatly by heterogeneity in age and hormone receptor subtype. Resource allocation and licensing of subsidised therapies such as trastuzumab should consider demographic and clinical heterogeneity; there is currently a profound disconnect between how funding decisions are made (largely agnostic to heterogeneity) and the principles of personalised medicine.

Economic evaluation of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases in breast, lung and prostate cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Single- and multiple-fraction external beam radiotherapy (SFX-EBRT and MFX-EBRT) are palliative treatment options for localized metastatic bone pain. MFX is the preferred choice in many developed countries. Evidence shows little difference in how effectively SFX and MFX reduce pain. However, SFX is associated with higher retreatment and (in one meta-analysis) pathological fracture rates. MFX is, however, more time-consuming and expensive. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of SFX versus MFX for metastatic bone pain in breast, prostate and lung cancer in New Zealand. METHODS: We constructed a Markov microsimulation model to estimate health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs), health system costs (in real 2011 NZ dollars) and cost-effectiveness. The model was populated using effect estimates from randomized controlled trials and other studies, and New Zealand cancer and cost data. Disability weights from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study were used in estimating QALYs. RESULTS: Across all three cancers, QALY gains were similar for SFX compared to MFX, and per patient costs were less for SFX than MFX, with a difference of NZ$1469 (95% uncertainty interval $1112 to $1886) for lung cancer, $1316 ($810 to $1854) for prostate cancer and $1344 ($855 to $1846) for breast cancer. Accordingly, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, SFX was the preferable treatment option. Various sensitivity analyses did not overturn the clear preference for SFX. CONCLUSION: For all three cancers, SFX was clearly more cost-effective than MFX. This adds to the case for desisting from offering MFX to patients with metastatic bone pain, from a cost-effectiveness angle.

Cancer care coordinators in stage III colon cancer: a cost-utility analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is momentum internationally to improve coordination of complex care pathways. Robust evaluations of such interventions are scarce. This paper evaluates the cost-utility of cancer care coordinators for stage III colon cancer patients, who generally require surgery followed by chemotherapy. METHODS: We compared a hospital-based nurse cancer care coordinator (CCC) with 'business-as-usual' (no dedicated coordination service) in stage III colon cancer patients in New Zealand. A discrete event microsimulation model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs from a health system perspective. We used New Zealand data on colon cancer incidence, survival, and mortality as baseline input parameters for the model. We specified intervention input parameters using available literature and expert estimates. For example, that a CCC would improve the coverage of chemotherapy by 33% (ranging from 9 to 65%), reduce the time to surgery by 20% (3 to 48%), reduce the time to chemotherapy by 20% (3 to 48%), and reduce patient anxiety (reduction in disability weight of 33%, ranging from 0 to 55%). RESULTS: Much of the direct cost of a nurse CCC was balanced by savings in business-as-usual care coordination. Much of the health gain was through increased coverage of chemotherapy with a CCC (especially older patients), and reduced time to chemotherapy. Compared to 'business-as-usual', the cost per QALY of the CCC programme was $NZ 18,900 (≈ $US 15,600; 95% UI: $NZ 13,400 to 24,600). By age, the CCC intervention was more cost-effective for colon cancer patients < 65 years ($NZ 9,400 per QALY). By ethnicity, the health gains were larger for Maori, but so too were the costs, meaning the cost-effectiveness was roughly comparable between ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Such a nurse-led CCC intervention in New Zealand has acceptable cost-effectiveness for stage III colon cancer, meaning it probably merits funding. Each CCC programme will differ in its likely health gains and costs, making generalisation from this evaluation to other CCC interventions difficult. However, this evaluation suggests that CCC interventions that increase coverage of, and reduce time to, effective treatments may be cost-effective.

Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 ["business as usual," BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000-419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Maori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Maori and non-Maori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45-64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

Patterns of cancer care costs in a country with detailed individual data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine health system expenditure on cancers by time since diagnosis using data for an entire country. METHODS: New Zealand cancer registry data was linked to hospitalization, pharmaceutical, outpatient, general practice, laboratory, and other datasets, with costs ascribed to each event occurring in 2006-2011. "Excess" cancer costs were estimated by subtracting "expected costs" for citizens without cancer from the "total cost" for cancer patients ($2011 inflation-adjusted). Gamma regressions were used to estimate costs per person-month. RESULTS: For first adult cancer diagnosed that the excess cost per person was between US$3400 and US$4300 in the first month postdiagnosis (varied by sex and age), fell to US$50-US$150 per month at 2 or more years postdiagnosis (excluding those within a year of death), but increased again if dying from their cancer (US$3800-US$8300 in the last month of life). Such patterns varied by cancer, for example, in the first month postdiagnosis for 65 year olds it varied 20-fold from US$800 for prostate to US$15,900 for brain cancer. Per diagnosed case, total excess costs varied from US$5000 (melanoma) to US$66,000 (bone and connective tissue) [Corrected]. Excess cancer costs made up 6.5% of total Vote:Health expenditure in 2010-2011, with colorectal (14.7%), breast (14.4%) being the top 2 contributors, and prostate, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, and lung each contributing about 6%. CONCLUSIONS: Costs vary substantially by time since diagnosis and cancer type. The results and regression equations reported in this paper can be used in modeling requiring cancer costs by time since diagnosis and proximity to death.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling.

BACKGROUND: A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Maori and non-Maori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. METHODS: We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Maori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. RESULTS: For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Maori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Maori and lowers the relative health gains for Maori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Maori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Maori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Maori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.