Data-driven mortality risk prediction of severe degenerative mitral regurgitation patients undergoing mitral valve surgery.

AIMS: The outcomes of mitral valve replacement/repair (MVR) in severe degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) patients depend on various risk factors. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for post-MVR mortality in severe degenerative MR patients using machine learning. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive severe degenerative MR patients undergoing MVR were analysed (n = 1521; 70% training/30% test sets). A random survival forest (RSF) model was constructed, with 3-year post-MVR all-cause mortality as the outcome. Partial dependency plots were used to define the thresholds of each risk factor. A simple scoring system (MVR-score) was developed to stratify post-MVR mortality risk. At 3 years following MVR, 90 patients (5.9%) died in the entire cohort (59 and 31 deaths in the training and test sets). The most important predictors of mortality in order of importance were age, haemoglobin, valve replacement, glomerular filtration rate, left atrial dimension, and left ventricular (LV) end-systolic diameter. The final RSF model with these six variables demonstrated high predictive performance in the test set (3-year C-index 0.880, 95% confidence interval 0.834-0.925), with mortality risk increased strongly with left atrial dimension >55 mm, and LV end-systolic diameter >45 mm. MVR-score demonstrated effective risk stratification and had significantly higher predictability compared to the modified Mitral Regurgitation International Database score (3-year C-index 0.803 vs. 0.750, P = 0.034). CONCLUSION: A data-driven machine learning model provided accurate post-MVR mortality prediction in severe degenerative MR patients. The outcome following MVR in severe degenerative MR patients is governed by both clinical and echocardiographic factors.

Long-term outcomes in distinct phenogroups of patients with primary mitral regurgitation undergoing valve surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with mitral regurgitation (MR) may be heterogeneous with different risk profiles. We aimed to identify distinct phenogroups of patients with severe primary MR and investigate their long-term prognosis after mitral valve (MV) surgery. METHODS: The retrospective cohort of patients with severe primary MR undergoing MV surgery (derivation, n=1629; validation, n=692) was analysed. Latent class analysis was used to classify patients into subgroups using 15 variables. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality after MV surgery. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 6.0 years), 149 patients (9.1%) died in the derivation cohort. In the univariable Cox analysis, age, female, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular (LV) end-systolic dimension/volumes, LV ejection fraction, left atrial dimension and tricuspid regurgitation peak velocity were significant predictors of mortality following MV surgery. Five distinct phenogroups were identified, three younger groups (group 1-3) and two older groups (group 4-5): group 1, least comorbidities; group 2, men with LV enlargement; group 3, predominantly women with rheumatic MR; group 4, low-risk older patients; and group 5, high-risk older patients. Cumulative survival was the lowest in group 5, followed by groups 3 and 4 (5-year survival for groups 1-5: 98.5%, 96.0%, 91.7%, 95.6% and 83.4%; p<0.001). Phenogroups had similar predictive performance compared with the Mitral Regurgitation International Database score in patients with degenerative MR (3-year C-index, 0.763 vs 0.750, p=0.602). These findings were reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Five phenogroups of patients with severe primary MR with different risk profiles and outcomes were identified. This phenogrouping strategy may improve risk stratification when optimising the timing and type of interventions for severe MR.

Markers of Myocardial Damage Predict Mortality in Patients With Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is increasingly used for risk stratification in aortic stenosis (AS). However, the relative prognostic power of CMR markers and their respective thresholds remains undefined. OBJECTIVES: Using machine learning, the study aimed to identify prognostically important CMR markers in AS and their thresholds of mortality. METHODS: Patients with severe AS undergoing AVR (n = 440, derivation; n = 359, validation cohort) were prospectively enrolled across 13 international sites (median 3.8 years' follow-up). CMR was performed shortly before surgical or transcatheter AVR. A random survival forest model was built using 29 variables (13 CMR) with post-AVR death as the outcome. RESULTS: There were 52 deaths in the derivation cohort and 51 deaths in the validation cohort. The 4 most predictive CMR markers were extracellular volume fraction, late gadolinium enhancement, indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDVi), and right ventricular ejection fraction. Across the whole cohort and in asymptomatic patients, risk-adjusted predicted mortality increased strongly once extracellular volume fraction exceeded 27%, while late gadolinium enhancement >2% showed persistent high risk. Increased mortality was also observed with both large (LVEDVi >80 mL/m2) and small (LVEDVi ≤55 mL/m2) ventricles, and with high (>80%) and low (≤50%) right ventricular ejection fraction. The predictability was improved when these 4 markers were added to clinical factors (3-year C-index: 0.778 vs 0.739). The prognostic thresholds and risk stratification by CMR variables were reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning identified myocardial fibrosis and biventricular remodeling markers as the top predictors of survival in AS and highlighted their nonlinear association with mortality. These markers may have potential in optimizing the decision of AVR.

Differential risk of incident cancer in patients with heart failure: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and cancer are currently two leading causes of mortality, and sometimes coexist. However, the relationship between them is not completely elucidated. We aimed to investigate whether patients with HF are predisposed to cancer development using the large Korean National Health Insurance claims database. METHODS: This study included 128,441 HF patients without a history of cancer and 642,205 age- and sex-matched individuals with no history of cancer and HF between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.06 years, 11,808 patients from the HF group and 40,805 participants from the control were newly diagnosed with cancer (cumulative incidence, 9.2% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.0001). Patients with HF presented a higher risk for cancer development compared to controls in multivariable Cox analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.68]. The increased risk was consistent for all site-specific cancers. To minimize potential surveillance bias, additional analysis was performed by eliminating participants who developed cancer within the initial 2 years of HF diagnosis (i.e. 2-year lag analysis). In the 2-year lag analysis, the higher risk of overall cancer remained significant in patients with HF (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13), although the association was weaker. Among the site-specific cancers, three types of cancer (lung, liver/biliary/pancreas, and hematologic malignancy) were consistently at higher risk in patients with HF. An exploratory analysis showed that patients with repeated HF hospitalization had a higher risk of cancer development compared to those without, in a pattern of stepwise increases across the three groups [controls vs. HF without re-hospitalization vs. HF with re-hospitalization ≥1; HR (95% CI), 1.00 (reference) vs. 1.55 (1.51-1.59) vs. 1.96 (1.89-2.03), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer incidence is higher in patients with HF than the general population. Active surveillance of coexisting malignancy needs to be considered in these patients.

De novo malignancy risk in patients undergoing the first percutaneous coronary intervention: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been the mainstay of revascularization strategy for significant coronary artery disease, future cancer risk after PCI has never been explored. We aimed to investigate the risk of incident cancer in patients undergoing PCI for the first time. METHODS: We studied 125,613 patients who underwent the first PCI between 2010 and 2015 without a prior history of cancer. For comparison, we selected 628,065 age- and sex-matched controls without any history of cancer or PCI who completed the assigned national health examination during the same period. RESULTS: During a median 4.56 years (interquartile range, 3.06-6.13 years), 8528 patients from the PCI group and 40,166 controls were newly diagnosed with cancer (incidence rate, 15.1 vs. 13.9 per 1000 person-years, p < 0.0001). Patients undergoing PCI presented a higher risk for cancer development than the controls in multivariable Cox analysis (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09, p < 0.0001). To minimize potential surveillance bias, we performed 1-year lag analysis by eliminating participants who developed cancer within 1 year from the PCI. In this analysis, the increased risk of overall cancer in the PCI group became insignificant (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.05, p = 0.2017). Regarding site-specific cancers, however, the risk of lung and hematologic malignancies remained higher and the risk of gastrointestinal, liver/biliary/pancreas, thyroid, and breast cancers remained lower in the PCI group. CONCLUSIONS: Differential future cancer risks were observed in patients undergoing PCI. The results suggest that specialized surveillance strategy might be warranted for this expanding population.

Pittsburgh B Compound Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With AL Cardiac Amyloidosis.

BACKGROUND: It remains unknown whether the noninvasive evaluation of the degree of amyloid deposition in the myocardium can predict the prognosis of patients with light chain (AL) cardiac amyloidosis. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to demonstrate that 11C-Pittsburgh B compound positron emission tomography (11C-PiB PET) is useful for prognostication of AL cardiac amyloidosis by noninvasively imaging the myocardial AL amyloid deposition. METHODS: This study consecutively enrolled 41 chemotherapy-naïve AL cardiac amyloidosis patients. The amyloid deposit was quantitatively assessed with amyloid P immunohistochemistry in endomyocardial biopsy specimens and was compared with the degree of myocardial 11C-PiB uptake on PET. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause death, heart transplantation, and acute decompensated heart failure. RESULTS: The degree of myocardial 11C-PiB PET uptake was significantly higher in the cardiac amyloidosis patients compared with normal subjects and correlated well with the degree of amyloid deposit on histology (R2 = 0.343, p < 0.001). During follow-up (median: 423 days, interquartile range: 93 to 1,222 days), 24 patients experienced the primary endpoint. When the cardiac amyloidosis patients were divided into tertiles by the degree of myocardial 11C-PiB PET uptake, patients with the highest PiB uptake experienced the worst clinical event-free survival (log-rank p = 0.014). The degree of myocardial PiB PET uptake was a significant predictor of clinical outcome on multivariate Cox regression analysis (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.185; 95% confidence interval: 1.054 to 1.332; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: These proof-of-concept results show that noninvasive evaluation of myocardial amyloid load by 11C-PiB PET reflects the degree of amyloid deposit and is an independent predictor of clinical outcome in AL cardiac amyloidosis patients.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is an early predictor of metabolic diseases in a metabolically healthy population.

AIMS: The relationship between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and incident metabolic syndrome in metabolically healthy subjects is unknown. We aimed to investigate whether nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is a predictor of future metabolic syndrome in metabolically healthy subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Subjects who underwent health evaluation at least twice between 2009 and 2015 from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort in South Korea were included. Patients without obesity who had no metabolic syndrome components were finally analyzed (n = 28,880). The definition of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was based on both the hepatic steatosis and fatty liver indices. The incidence of metabolic syndrome, prediabetes/type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia was compared between the subjects with and without nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. RESULTS: The presence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was associated with a higher risk of incident metabolic syndrome, prediabetes/type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the entire cohort (metabolic syndrome: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-3.71; prediabetes/type 2 diabetes: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.90; hypertension: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-4.12; dyslipidemia: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.06). A similar finding was observed in the age-, sex-, smoking status-, and body mass index-based 1:5 propensity score-matched cohort of 1,092 subjects (metabolic syndrome: adjusted hazard ratio, 3.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-7.07; prediabetes/type 2 diabetes: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.73; hypertension: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-4.88; dyslipidemia: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.32). CONCLUSIONS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is an early predictor of metabolic dysfunction even in metabolically healthy populations.

Association of Total Reproductive Years With Incident Atrial Fibrillation, and Subsequent Ischemic Stroke in Women With Natural Menopause.

BACKGROUND: The association of lifetime exposure to endogenous sex hormone with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and subsequent ischemic stroke has never been studied. METHODS: This study involved 4 638 299 natural postmenopausal waomen aged ≥40 years without prior history of AF and with national breast cancer check-up between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014. The primary end point was incident AF, and the secondary end point was subsequent ischemic stroke once AF has developed. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of end points. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 6.3 years, shorter total reproductive years (<30 years) were associated with 7% increased risk of AF after adjusting for confounding variables (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09]). Risk of AF declined progressively with every 5-yearly increment in total reproductive years (P-for-trend <0.001). However, the prolonged (≥2 years) use of hormone replacement therapy after menopause was paradoxically associated with a 3% increase in AF risk (aHR, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.05]). For the secondary end point analysis, the risk of ischemic stroke after AF development significantly decreased with each 5-yearly increment in total reproductive years (with <30 years as reference; aHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] for 30-34 years; aHR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.79-0.89] for 35-39 years; and aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80-0.97] for ≥40 years, P-for-trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In women with natural menopause, shorter lifetime exposure to endogenous sex hormone, that is, shorter total reproductive years, was significantly associated with a higher risk of AF and subsequent ischemic stroke. Paradoxically, prolonged exogenous hormone replacement therapy increased the risk of incident AF.

Transformation of the fallopian tube secretory epithelium leads to high-grade serous ovarian cancer in Brca;Tp53;Pten models.

High-grade serous ovarian carcinoma presents significant clinical and therapeutic challenges. Although the traditional model of carcinogenesis has focused on the ovary as a tumor initiation site, recent studies suggest that there may be additional sites of origin outside the ovary, namely the secretory cells of the fallopian tube. Our study demonstrates that high-grade serous tumors can originate in fallopian tubal secretory epithelial cells and also establishes serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma as the precursor lesion to high-grade serous ovarian and peritoneal carcinomas in animal models targeting the Brca, Tp53, and Pten genes. These findings offer an avenue to address clinically important questions that are critical for cancer prevention and early detection in women carrying BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.