Using machine learning to identify quality-of-care predictors for emergency caesarean sections: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency caesarean sections (ECS) are time-sensitive procedures. Multiple factors may affect team efficiency but their relative importance remains unknown. This study aimed to identify the most important predictors contributing to quality of care during ECS in terms of the arrival-to-delivery interval. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. ECS were classified by urgency using emergency categories one/two and three (delivery within 30 and 60 min). In total, 92 predictor variables were included in the analysis and grouped as follows: 'Maternal objective', 'Maternal psychological', 'Fetal factors', 'ECS Indication', 'Emergency category', 'Type of anaesthesia', 'Team member qualifications and experience' and 'Procedural'. Data was analysed with a linear regression model using elastic net regularisation and jackknife technique to improve generalisability. The relative influence of the predictors, percentage significant predictor weight (PSPW) was calculated for each predictor to visualise the main determinants of arrival-to-delivery interval. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patient records for mothers undergoing ECS between 2010 and 2017, Nordsjællands Hospital, Capital Region of Denmark. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Arrival-to-delivery interval during ECS. RESULTS: Data was obtained from 2409 patient records for women undergoing ECS. The group of predictors representing 'Team member qualifications and experience' was the most important predictor of arrival-to-delivery interval in all ECS emergency categories (PSPW 25.9% for ECS category one/two; PSPW 35.5% for ECS category three). In ECS category one/two the 'Indication for ECS' was the second most important predictor group (PSPW 24.9%). In ECS category three, the second most important predictor group was 'Maternal objective predictors' (PSPW 24.2%). CONCLUSION: This study provides empirical evidence for the importance of team member qualifications and experience relative to other predictors of arrival-to-delivery during ECS. Machine learning provides a promising method for expanding our current knowledge about the relative importance of different factors in predicting outcomes of complex obstetric events.

Microscopic Colitis in Denmark: Regional Variations in Risk Factors and Frequency of Endoscopic Procedures.

OBJECTIVE: Microscopic colitis [MC], encompassing collagenous colitis [CC] and lymphocytic colitis [LC], is an increasingly prevalent gastrointestinal disease with an unknown aetiology. Previous research has reported significant differences in the incidence of MC within Denmark, with the lowest incidence found in the most populated region [Capital Region of Denmark]. Our aim was to elucidate the causes of these regional differences. DESIGN: All incident MC patients [n = 14 302] with a recorded diagnosis of CC [n = 8437] or LC [n = 5865] entered in The Danish Pathology Register between 2001 and 2016 were matched to 10 reference individuals [n = 142 481]. Information regarding drug exposure, including proton pump inhibitors [PPIs], selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs], statins, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs], were retrieved from The Danish National Prescription Registry. Information regarding endoscopy rate, smoking-related diseases, and immune-mediated inflammatory diseases were acquired from The Danish National Patient Registry. RESULTS: Smoking, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, exposure to PPIs, SSRIs, statins, and NSAIDs were significantly associated with MC in all Danish regions. The association between drug exposure and MC was weakest in the Capital Region of Denmark with an odds ratio of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.61-2.01). The relative risk of undergoing a colonoscopy with biopsy was significantly increased in sex- and age-matched controls in all regions compared with controls from the Capital Region of Denmark, with the greatest risk found in the Region of Southern Denmark, 1.37 [95% CI: 1.26-1.50]. CONCLUSIONS: The cause of the regional differences in MC incidence in Denmark seems to be multifactorial, including variations in disease awareness and distribution of risk factors.

A prospective cohort study of confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy evaluating SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in maternal and umbilical cord blood and SARS-CoV-2 in vaginal swabs.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence about the consequences of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in pregnancy is rapidly increasing; however, data on antibody response and risk of transmission during pregnancy and delivery are still limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate if SARS-CoV-2 is detectable in vaginal swabs and whether antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are present in maternal and umbilical cord blood of pregnant women with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A single-unit prospective cohort study in Denmark including pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by a pharyngeal swab between August 20, 2020, and March 1, 2021, who gave birth during the same period. All patients admitted to the maternity ward and antepartum clinic were screened for SARS-CoV-2 infection. A maternal blood sample and vaginal swabs were collected at inclusion. If included antepartum, these samples were repeated intrapartum when an umbilical cord blood sample was also collected. Swabs were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 and blood samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies. Placental and neonatal swabs as well as placental histopathological examinations were performed on clinical indications. RESULTS: We included 28 women, of whom four had serious maternal or fetal outcomes including one case of neonatal death. Within the first 8 days after confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in two vaginal swabs (2/28) and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected in 1 of 13 women. From 16 days after confirmed infection, antibodies were observed in 19 of 21 of women. Antibodies in cord blood were not detected during the first 16 days after confirmed infection (n = 7). However, from 26 days, antibodies were present in 16 of 17 cord blood samples of seropositive mothers. Placental examination in two cases of severe fetal outcomes preceded by reduced fetal movements revealed SARS-CoV-2 in swabs and severe histopathological abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 was detected in only 2 of 28 vaginal swabs within 8 days after confirmed infection in pregnant women. Our data suggest that maternal seroconversion occurs between days 8 and 16, whereas antibodies in cord blood of seropositive mothers were present in the majority from 26 days after confirmed infection. Additional data are needed regarding timing of seroconversion for the mother and appearance of antibodies in cord blood.

Occurrence of Colorectal Cancer and the Influence of Medical Treatment in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study, 1997 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: The risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has previously been investigated with conflicting results. We aimed to investigate the incidence and risk of CRC in IBD, focusing on its modification by treatment. METHODS: All patients with incident IBD (n = 35,908) recorded in the Danish National Patient Register between 1997 and 2015 (ulcerative colitis: n = 24,102; Crohn's disease: n = 9739; IBD unclassified: n = 2067) were matched to approximately 50 reference individuals (n = 1,688,877). CRC occurring after the index date was captured from the Danish Cancer Registry. Exposure to medical treatment was divided into categories including none, systemic 5-aminosalicylates, immunomodulators, and biologic treatment. The association between IBD and subsequent CRC was investigated by Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of the IBD patients, 330 were diagnosed with CRC, resulting in a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.28) as compared with the reference individuals. However, when excluding patients diagnosed with CRC within 6 months of their IBD diagnosis, the HR decreased to 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71-0.92). Patients with ulcerative colitis receiving any medical treatment were at significantly higher risk of developing CRC than patients with ulcerative colitis who were not given medical treatment (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.01-1.81), whereas a similar effect of medical treatment was not observed in patients with Crohn's disease or IBD unclassified. CONCLUSIONS: Medical treatment does not appear to affect the risk of CRC in patients with IBD. The overall risk of developing CRC is significantly increased in patients with IBD as compared with the general population. However, when excluding patients diagnosed with CRC within 6 months of their IBD diagnosis, the elevated risk disappears.

Disease Activity Patterns, Mortality, and Colorectal Cancer Risk in Microscopic Colitis: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study, 2001 to 2016.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The disease course of microscopic colitis [MC], encompassing collagenous colitis [CC] and lymphocytic colitis [LC], is not well known. In a Danish nationwide cohort, we evaluated the disease activity patterns as well as the risk of colorectal cancer [CRC] and mortality based on disease severity. METHODS: All incident MC patients [n = 14 302] with a recorded diagnosis of CC [n = 8437] or LC [n = 5865] in the Danish Pathology Register, entered between 2001 and 2016, were matched to 10 reference individuals [n = 142 481]. Incident cases of CRC after the index date were captured from the Danish Cancer Registry. Mortality data were ascertained from the Danish Registry of Causes of Death, and information about treatment was obtained from the Danish National Prescription Registry. The risk of CRC and mortality analyses were investigated by Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: We identified a self-limiting or transient disease course in 70.6% of LC patients and in 59.9% of CC patients, p <0.001. Less than 5% of MC patients experienced a budesonide-refractory disease course and were treated with immunomodulators or biologic treatment. A total of 2926 [20.5%] MC patients and 24 632 [17.3%] reference individuals died during the study period. MC patients with a severe disease had a relative risk [RR] of mortality of 1.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32-1.50) compared with reference individuals. Only 90 MC patients were diagnosed with CRC during follow-up, corresponding to an RR of 0.48 [95% CI: 0.39-0.60]. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of MC patients experience an indolent disease course with a lower risk of developing CRC compared with the background population.

[A ruptured ectopic pregnancy during early termination of pregnancy before ultrasound confirmation].

A new regimen for early termination of pregnancy does not require ultrasound confirmation of intrauterine pregnancy before mifepristone administration. This is a case report of a woman in her 30s, who was treated medically for unwanted pregnancy at five weeks and four days with a serum concentration of human chorionic gonadotropin of 859 U/l. As she was told to expect pain, she awaited follow-up appointment a week later, but before then she collapsed at home, and she was unconscious, when the emergency service arrived. In emergency surgery, 1.3 l of intra-abdominal blood and a right fallopian tube pregnancy were removed.

Tibolone and risk of gynecological hormone sensitive cancer.

Risk of ovarian cancer with hormone therapy is associated with use of both unopposed estrogen therapy and combined estrogen-progestin therapy, whereas for endometrial cancer addition of continuous progestin decreases the estrogen induced increased risk. Less is known about risk with use of tibolone; a synthetic steroid with estrogenic, progestagenic and androgenic properties. We assessed these associations in a prospective cohort study, including all Danish women 50-79 years of age and followed 1995-2009. National Danish Registers captured individually updated exposure information, cancer cases including histology and confounding factors. Poisson regression analyses provided multiple adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs). More than 900,000 women were followed for 9.8 years on average; 4,513 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 6,202 with endometrial cancer. Compared to women never on postmenopausal hormone therapy, current users of tibolone had an increased IRR for ovarian cancer (1.42(95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.00) and serous ovarian tumors (2.21(95%CI 1.48-3.32)). The risk increased with duration of use, particularly for serous ovarian tumors. Compared to never users, the IRR of endometrial cancer was 3.56(95%CI 2.94-4.32) among current users of tibolone and 3.80(95%CI 3.08-4.69) of Type I endometrial cancer. The steepest risk increase with duration of use was for Type I tumors. In conclusion, tibolone is associated with increased risk for ovarian and endometrial cancer overall; and particular the risk of serous ovarian tumors and Type I endometrial cancer. Because the associations are stronger with increasing durations of use - and for hormone sensitive tumors - the results seem indicative of causality.