RESUMO
A reliable prediction of the recurrence risk of pheochromocytoma after radical surgery would be a key element for the tailoring/personalization of post-surgical follow-up. Recently, our group developed a multivariable continuous model that quantifies this risk based on genetic, histopathological, and clinical data. The aim of the present study was to simplify this tool to a discrete score for easier clinical use. Data from our previous study were retrieved, which encompassed 177 radically operated pheochromocytoma patients; supervised regression and machine-learning techniques were used for score development. After Cox regression, the variables independently associated with recurrence were tumor size, positive genetic testing, age, and PASS. In order to derive a simpler scoring system, continuous variables were dichotomized, using > 50 mm for tumor size, ≤ 35 years for age, and ≥ 3 for PASS as cut-points. A novel prognostic score was created on an 8-point scale by assigning 1 point for tumor size > 50 mm, 3 points for positive genetic testing, 1 point for age ≤ 35 years, and 3 points for PASS ≥ 3; its predictive performance, as assessed using Somers' D, was equal to 0.577 and was significantly higher than the performance of any of the four dichotomized predictors alone. In conclusion, this simple scoring system may be of value as an easy-to-use tool to stratify recurrence risk and tailor post-surgical follow-up in radically operated pheochromocytoma patients.
RESUMO
Objective: Various features have been identified as predictors of relapse after complete resection of pheochromocytoma, but a comprehensive multivariable model for recurrence risk prediction is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate an integrated predictive model for post-surgical recurrence of pheochromocytoma. Methods: The present research retrospectively enrolled 177 patients affected by pheochromocytoma and submitted to radical surgery from 1990 to 2016, in nine referral centers for adrenal diseases. Cox regression analysis was adopted for model development, and a bootstrapping procedure was used for internal validation. Results: Variables independently associated with recurrence were tumor size (hazard ratio (HR): 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02), positive genetic testing (HR: 5.14, 95% CI: 2.10-12.55), age (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), and Pheochromocytoma of the Adrenal Gland Scaled Score (PASS) (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04-1.29). The predictive performance of the overall model, evaluated by Somers' D, was equal to 0.594, and was significantly higher than the ones of any single predictor alone (P = 0.002 compared to tumor size; P = 0.004 compared to genetic testing; P = 0.048 compared to age; P = 0.006 compared to PASS). Internal validation by bootstrapping techniques estimated an optimistic bias of 6.3%, which reassured about a small tendency towards overfit. Conclusions: We proposed a multivariable model for the prediction of post-surgical recurrence of pheochromocytoma, derived by the integration of genetic, histopathological, and clinical data. This predictive tool may be of value for a comprehensive tailoring of post-surgical follow-up in radically operated pheochromocytoma patients.
Assuntos
Neoplasias das Glândulas Suprarrenais , Feocromocitoma , Neoplasias das Glândulas Suprarrenais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias das Glândulas Suprarrenais/patologia , Neoplasias das Glândulas Suprarrenais/cirurgia , Humanos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/diagnóstico , Feocromocitoma/diagnóstico , Feocromocitoma/patologia , Feocromocitoma/cirurgia , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
The available data on the natural history of pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas after radical surgery are heterogeneous and discordant. The aim of our retrospective multicenter study was to find predictors of recurrence in patients with pheochromocytomas and sympathetic paragangliomas submitted to radical surgery in Piedmont (a region in northwest Italy). We collected data from 242 patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2016. Forty-two patients (17.4%) had disease recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that genetic mutation (HR = 3.62; 95% CI 1.44-9.13; p = 0.006), younger age (HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.95-0.99; p = 0.031) and larger tumor size (HR = 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.02; p = 0.015) were independently associated with a higher recurrence risk of pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma; in pheochromocytomas, genetic mutation (HR = 3.4; 95% CI 1.00-11.48; p = 0.049), younger age (HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.94-0.99; p = 0.02), higher tumor size (HR = 1.01; 95% CI 1.00-1.03; p = 0.043) and PASS value (HR = 1.16; 95% CI 1.03-1.3; p = 0.011) were associated with recurrence. Moreover, tumor size was the only predictor of metastatic pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (HR = 4.6; 95% CI 1.4-15.0; p = 0.012); tumor size (HR = 3.93; 95% CI 1.2-16.4; p = 0.026) and PASS value (HR = 1.27; 95% CI 1.06-1.53; p = 0.007) were predictors of metastatic pheochromocytoma. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the recurrence of pheochromocytoma and sympathetic paraganglioma develops more frequently in younger subjects, patients with a family history of chromaffin tissue neoplasms, mutations in susceptibility genes, larger tumors and higher values of PASS. We recommend genetic testing in all patients with PPGL and strict follow-up at least on an annual basis.