A compartmental model for smoking dynamics in Italy: a pipeline for inference, validation, and forecasting under hypothetical scenarios.

We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-validation on a rolling basis and variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis to check the robustness of the results and support our findings. Our results suggest a decrease in smoking prevalence among males and stability among females, over the next two decades. We estimate that, in 2023, 18% of deaths among males and 8% among females are due to smoking. We test the use of the model in assessing the impact on smoking prevalence and mortality of different tobacco control policies, including the tobacco-free generation ban recently introduced in New Zealand.

THC and THC-COOH hair concentrations: Influence of age, gender, consumption habits, cosmetics treatment, and hair features.

Evaluation of Cannabis consumption is required for many purposes (i.e., workplace drug testing and driving license renewal). Hair analysis represents the most adopted and reliable approach for the investigation of repeated or chronic exposure to Cannabis. The main markers are the Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and its main metabolite, 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), as stated by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT) and the European Workplace Drug Testing Society (EWDTS). In this paper we presented an observational study on the hair concentrations of THC and THC-COOH and influences due to age, gender, consumption habits, and hair features. Data were collected from analysis of scalp hair samples (3-cm proximal segment) provided by subjects tested for THC consumption for personal purposes (i.e., workplace drug testing, personal use proving). The subjects provided an informed consent and a short questionnaire. A new analytical method was previously developed and then adopted. It consisted in a hydrolysis (1 mL of 1 M NaOH at 65 °C, 20 min) and a liquid-liquid extraction (with hexane/ethyl acetate,90/10, v/v in presence of 1.5 mL of H2SO4 1 M) of 25 mg of hair. A liquid chromatograph - tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) equipped with a C18 column was used. The acquisition was in multiple reaction monitoring for the following transitions: 315→259, 193 m/z, for THC; 318→196, 123 m/z, for THC-d3; 345→299, 193 m/z for THC-COOH; 348→196, 302 m/z for THC-COOH-d3. Correlation between THC and THC-COOH hair concentrations was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. In order to study the influences of several variables, a new value, Sqrt(THC*THCCOOH), was adopted. Its effectiveness and reliability were proved by the Principal Component Analysis. Relationships between the Sqrt(THC*THCCOOH) and the variables were studied through the Stepwise regression (p = 0.05). The normality of data distribution was tested by the Shapiro-Wilk test. The Lower limits of quantification were 10.0 (THC) and 0.2 (THC-COOH) pg/mg. Accuracy and precision always met the acceptable criteria. Recoveries were > 78% and ion suppression was observed for both the compounds. Data from 126 hair samples were included in this study: 54 subjects(42.9%) were positive both for THC and THC-COOH; none of the samples was positive for a single substance. Concentrations ranged from 0.18 to 1.75 ng/mg (median: 0.78 ng/mg) for THC and from 0.04 to 0.85 ng/mg (median: 0.31 ng/mg) for THC-COOH. Cannabinoids levels seemed to decrease with the age, with lower amounts in the subjects aged > 40 years (p < 0.05). Also years of consumption seemed to have a significant impact on hair concentrations, as higher levels were observed in consumers from > 10 years (p = 0.013). Moreover, this study further provided evidences of a significant reduction of THC and THC-COOH in bleached hair (p = 0.042).

Dose-risk relationships between cigarette smoking and cervical cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical cancer (CC) is the fourth most frequent cancer worldwide. Cigarette smoking has been shown to influence CC risk in conjunction with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The aim of this study is to provide the most accurate and updated estimate of this association and its dose-response relationship. METHODS: Using an innovative approach for the identification of original publications, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published up to January 2021. Random effects models were used to provide pooled relative risks (RRs) of CC for smoking status. Dose-response relationships were evaluated using one-stage random effects models with linear or restricted cubic splines models. RESULTS: We included 109 studies providing a pooled RR of invasive CC and preinvasive lesions, respectively, of 1.70 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.53-1.88] and 2.11 (95% CI, 1.85-2.39) for current versus never smokers, and, respectively, 1.13 (95% CI, 1.02-1.24) and 1.29 (95% CI, 1.15-1.46) for former versus never smokers. Considering HPV does not alter the positive association or its magnitude. Risks of CC sharply increased with few cigarettes (for 10 cigarettes/day, RR = 1.72; 95% CI, 1.34-2.20 for invasive CC and RR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.86-2.44 for precancerous lesions). The risk of CC increased with pack-years and smoking duration and decreased linearly with time since quitting, reaching that of never smokers about 15 years after quitting. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive review and meta-analysis confirmed the association of smoking with CC, independently from HPV infection. Such association rose sharply with smoking intensity and decreased after smoking cessation.

Burden of disease from second-hand tobacco smoke exposure at home among adults from European Union countries in 2017: an analysis using a review of recent meta-analyses.

Smoke-free legislation reduced second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure in public places, and indirectly promoted private smoke-free settings. Nevertheless, a large proportion of adults is still exposed to SHS at home. The aim of this paper is to quantify the burden of disease due to home SHS exposure among adults in the 28-European Union (EU) countries for year 2017. The burdens by gender from lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), breast cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, asthma, and diabetes were estimated in an original research analysis using the comparative risk assessment method. Relative risks of death/diseases by gender for adults exposed to SHS at home compared to not exposed ones were estimated updating existing meta-analyses. Prevalence of home SHS exposure by gender was estimated using a multiple imputation procedure based on Eurobarometer surveys. Data on mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. In 2017, 526,000 DALYs (0.36% of total DALYs) and 24,000 deaths (0.46% of total deaths) were attributable to home SHS exposure in the 28-EU countries, mainly from COPD and IHD. South-Eastern EU countries showed the highest burden, with proportion of DALYs/deaths attributable to SHS exposure on total higher than 0.50%/0.70%, whereas northern EU-countries showed the lowest burden, with proportions of DALYs/deaths lower than 0.25%/0.34%. The burden from SHS exposure is still significant in EU countries. More could be done to raise awareness of the health risks associated with SHS exposure at home.

Burden of disease from exposure to secondhand smoke in children in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure at home and fetal SHS exposure during pregnancy are a major cause of disease among children. The aim of this study is quantifying the burden of disease due to SHS exposure in children and in pregnancy in 2006-2017 for the 28 European Union (EU) countries. METHODS: Exposure to SHS was estimated using a multiple imputation procedure based on the Eurobarometer surveys, and SHS exposure burden was estimated with the comparative risk assessment method using meta-analytical relative risks. Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from National statistics and from the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: Exposure to SHS and its attributable burden stalled in 2006-2017; in pregnant women, SHS exposure was 19.8% in 2006, 19.1% in 2010, and 21.0% in 2017; in children it was 10.1% in 2006, 9.6% in 2010, and 12.1% in 2017. In 2017, 35,633 DALYs among children were attributable to SHS exposure in the EU, mainly due to low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive smoking bans up to 2010 contributed to reduce SHS exposure and its burden in children immediately after their implementation; however, SHS exposure still occurs, and in 2017, its burden in children was still relevant. IMPACT: Exposure to secondhand smoke at home and in pregnancy is a major cause of disease among children. Smoking legislation produced the adoption of voluntary smoking bans in homes; however, secondhand smoke exposure at home still occurs and its burden is substantial. In 2017, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years in children attributable to exposure to secondhand smoke in the European Union countries were, respectively, 335 and 35,633. Low birth weight caused by secondhand smoke exposure in pregnancy showed the largest burden. Eastern European Union countries showed the highest burden.

Burden of disease from breast cancer attributable to smoking and second-hand smoke exposure in Europe.

Smoking and second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure have been recently linked to a higher risk of breast cancer in women. The aim of this work is to estimate the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from breast cancer attributable to these two risk factors in the European Union (EU-28) in 2017. The comparative risk assessment method was used. Data on prevalence of smoking and SHS exposure were extracted from the Eurobarometer surveys, relative risks from a recent meta-analysis, and data on mortality and DALYs from breast cancer were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. In 2017, 82 239 DALYs and 3354 deaths from breast cancer in the EU-28 could have been avoided by removing exposure to these two risk factors (smoking and SHS exposure). The proportion of DALYs from breast cancer lost respectively from smoking and SHS exposure was 2.6% and 1.0%, although geographically distributed with significant heterogeneity. These results represent the first estimates of breast cancer burden in women attributable to smoking and SHS exposure for the EU-28. It is important to increase awareness among women, health professionals and wider society of the association between smoking, SHS exposure and breast cancer, a relationship that is not widely recognised or discussed.

Prevalence of tobacco smoking and electronic cigarette use among adolescents in Italy: Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS), 2010, 2014, 2018.

This research aims to study tobacco smoking and vaping among adolescents in Italy through three repeat national cross sectional surveys conducted before (in 2010, 2014) and after (2018) the 2016 introduction of the European Union - Tobacco Product Directive (EU-TPD) and its transposition into Italy, and before Juul entered the Italian market in 2019. Prevalence of smoking and vaping, access to cigarettes and electronic cigarettes in adolescents aged 13-15 years were estimated from the 2010, 2014, and 2018 Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (N = 1587; N = 1428; N = 1518, respectively) conducted in Italy. Prevalence of current smokers and/or current vapers combined, accounting for dual users, non-significantly increased from 20.7% in 2010 to 27.9% in 2018. Although current smokers stalled around 20%, current vapers substantially increased from 0% in 2010, 7.4% in 2014, to 17.5% in 2018, and current exclusive vapers recorded an almost 3-fold significantly increase from 2.9% in 2014 to 8.2% in 2018. Moreover, 42% of ever vapers used nicotine-free electronic cigarettes, and only 5% of current users were frequent vapers (≥20 days in the past month). About 65% of current smokers and 76% of current vapers easily accessed to cigarettes or electronic cigarettes in 2018. After 2 years from its implementation in 2016, the EU-TPD does not seem to have slowed down the increase in vaping among Italian adolescents before Juul entered the Italian market. Additional research is needed in order to show a clear association between EU-TPD and changes in vaping and smoking in Italy and in the EU.

[Deaths from noncommunicable diseases attributable to behavioral risk factors in Italy and Italian regions, 2016]. / Decessi per patologie non trasmissibili attribuibili a stili di vita in Italia e nelle regioni italiane nel 2016.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the number of deaths from noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCD) attributable to behavioural risk factors (tobacco smoking, unhealthy nutrition, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use) in 2016 for Italy and for the Italian regions. DESIGN: descriptive study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: mortality data were obtained by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Causes of deaths from NCD associated with the five RFs were selected. Italian attributable fractions were obtained by the 2016 estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study and applied to the mortality data. Regional prevalence of risk factors was obtained by the national surveillance system PASSI for the years 2013-2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: absolute number of attributable deaths, joint attributable fraction, proportion of total deaths attributable to RFs (MAprop). RESULTS: about 191,000 out of 614,307 deaths occurred in Italy in 2016 were attributable to combined RFs (about 37% in males; 26% in women). Joint MAprop was between 33% in men (24% in women) from Val d'Aosta and 40% in men (31% in women) from Campania. In Italy, 17% and 6% of the total amount of deaths were attributable to smoking in men and women, respectively; 6% and 3% to alcohol abuse; 7% and 8% to overweight; 13% and 12% to dietary RFs, and 2% and 3% to low physical activity. The higher proportion of attributable deaths by age-group was recorded in people aged 40-59 years (43% in men; 28% in women). Regional differences in attributable deaths are confirmed by regional RF prevalence recorded by the PASSI surveillance system for the years 2013-2016. CONCLUSIONS: these are the first estimates of the number of deaths due to NCDs attributable to behavioural RFs estimated for each region and for Italy as a whole. Effective primary prevention policies should be reinforced, since these RFs are potentially modifiable.