Predictive models for starting antiseizure medication withdrawal following epilepsy surgery in adults.

More than half of adults with epilepsy undergoing resective epilepsy surgery achieve long-term seizure freedom and might consider withdrawing antiseizure medications. We aimed to identify predictors of seizure recurrence after starting postoperative antiseizure medication withdrawal and develop and validate predictive models. We performed an international multicentre observational cohort study in nine tertiary epilepsy referral centres. We included 850 adults who started antiseizure medication withdrawal following resective epilepsy surgery and were free of seizures other than focal non-motor aware seizures before starting antiseizure medication withdrawal. We developed a model predicting recurrent seizures, other than focal non-motor aware seizures, using Cox proportional hazards regression in a derivation cohort (n = 231). Independent predictors of seizure recurrence, other than focal non-motor aware seizures, following the start of antiseizure medication withdrawal were focal non-motor aware seizures after surgery and before withdrawal [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 5.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-11.1], history of focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures before surgery (aHR 1.6, 95% CI 0.9-2.8), time from surgery to the start of antiseizure medication withdrawal (aHR 0.9, 95% CI 0.8-0.9) and number of antiseizure medications at time of surgery (aHR 1.2, 95% CI 0.9-1.6). Model discrimination showed a concordance statistic of 0.67 (95% CI 0.63-0.71) in the external validation cohorts (n = 500). A secondary model predicting recurrence of any seizures (including focal non-motor aware seizures) was developed and validated in a subgroup that did not have focal non-motor aware seizures before withdrawal (n = 639), showing a concordance statistic of 0.68 (95% CI 0.64-0.72). Calibration plots indicated high agreement of predicted and observed outcomes for both models. We show that simple algorithms, available as graphical nomograms and online tools (predictepilepsy.github.io), can provide probabilities of seizure outcomes after starting postoperative antiseizure medication withdrawal. These multicentre-validated models may assist clinicians when discussing antiseizure medication withdrawal after surgery with their patients.

Seizure outcome and use of antiepileptic drugs after epilepsy surgery according to histopathological diagnosis: a retrospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Surgery is a widely accepted treatment option for drug-resistant focal epilepsy. A detailed analysis of longitudinal postoperative seizure outcomes and use of antiepileptic drugs for different brain lesions causing epilepsy is not available. We aimed to analyse the association between histopathology and seizure outcome and drug freedom up to 5 years after epilepsy surgery, to improve presurgical decision making and counselling. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicentre, longitudinal, cohort study, patients who had epilepsy surgery between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2012, at 37 collaborating tertiary referral centres across 18 European countries of the European Epilepsy Brain Bank consortium were assessed. We included patients of all ages with histopathology available after epilepsy surgery. Histopathological diagnoses and a minimal dataset of clinical variables were collected from existing local databases and patient records. The primary outcomes were freedom from disabling seizures (Engel class 1) and drug freedom at 1, 2, and 5 years after surgery. Proportions of individuals who were Engel class 1 and drug-free were reported for the 11 main categories of histopathological diagnosis. We analysed the association between histopathology, duration of epilepsy, and age at surgery, and the primary outcomes using random effects multivariable logistic regression to control for confounding. FINDINGS: 9147 patients were included, of whom seizure outcomes were available for 8191 (89·5%) participants at 2 years, and for 5577 (61·0%) at 5 years. The diagnoses of low-grade epilepsy associated neuroepithelial tumour (LEAT), vascular malformation, and hippocampal sclerosis had the best seizure outcome at 2 years after surgery, with 77·5% (1027 of 1325) of patients free from disabling seizures for LEAT, 74·0% (328 of 443) for vascular malformation, and 71·5% (2108 of 2948) for hippocampal sclerosis. The worst seizure outcomes at 2 years were seen for patients with focal cortical dysplasia type I or mild malformation of cortical development (50·0%, 213 of 426 free from disabling seizures), those with malformation of cortical development-other (52·3%, 212 of 405 free from disabling seizures), and for those with no histopathological lesion (53·5%, 396 of 740 free from disabling seizures). The proportion of patients being both Engel class 1 and drug-free was 0-14% at 1 year and increased to 14-51% at 5 years. Children were more often drug-free; temporal lobe surgeries had the best seizure outcomes; and a longer duration of epilepsy was associated with reduced chance of favourable seizure outcomes and drug freedom. This effect of duration was evident for all lesions, except for hippocampal sclerosis. INTERPRETATION: Histopathological diagnosis, age at surgery, and duration of epilepsy are important prognostic factors for outcomes of epilepsy surgery. In every patient with refractory focal epilepsy presumed to be lesional, evaluation for surgery should be considered. FUNDING: None.

Why the TimeToStop trial failed to recruit: a survey on antiepileptic drug withdrawal after paediatric epilepsy surgery.

Following the results of the multicentre European retrospective "TimeToStop" cohort study, we initiated a randomised trial to determine cognitive benefits of early postoperative antiepileptic drug withdrawal. Unfortunately, the trial failed to recruit and was terminated, as almost all parents preferred early drug withdrawal. The objectives of the current survey were to obtain insight into current practices regarding drug withdrawal after paediatric epilepsy surgery among epileptologists, and better understand the reasons for difficulties in recruitment. A survey was sent to three international epilepsy surgery networks, questioning drug withdrawal policies. Forty-seven (19%) surveys were returned. For polytherapy, withdrawal was started at a median of three and six months by the TimeToStop collaborators and other paediatric epileptologists, respectively. Withdrawal was completed at a median of 12 and 20 months, respectively. For monotherapy, tapering was initiated at five and 11 months in these two groups, and ended at a median of seven and 12 months, respectively. Most TimeToStop collaborators believed that it was not justified to wait 12 months after surgery before reducing AEDs, regardless of the number of AEDs taken. Current AED policies in Europe have changed as a consequence of the retrospective TimeToStop results, and this accounts for why recruitment in a randomised trial was not feasible.

European trends in epilepsy surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Resective surgery is effective in treating drug-resistant focal epilepsy, but it remains unclear whether improved diagnostics influence postsurgical outcomes. Here, we compared practice and outcomes over 2 periods 15 years apart. METHODS: Sixteen European centers retrospectively identified 2 cohorts of children and adults who underwent epilepsy surgery in the period of 1997 to 1998 (n = 562) or 2012 to 2013 (n = 736). Data collected included patient (sex, age) and disease (duration, localization and diagnosis) characteristics, type of surgery, histopathology, Engel postsurgical outcome, and complications, as well as imaging and electrophysiologic tests performed for each case. Postsurgical outcome predictors were included in a multivariate logistic regression to assess the strength of date of surgery as an independent predictor. RESULTS: Over time, the number of operated cases per center increased from a median of 31 to 50 per 2-year period (p = 0.02). Mean disease duration at surgery decreased by 5.2 years (p < 0.001). Overall seizure freedom (Engel class 1) increased from 66.7% to 70.9% (adjusted p = 0.04), despite an increase in complex surgeries (extratemporal and/or MRI negative). Surgeries performed during the later period were 1.34 times (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.77) more likely to yield a favorable outcome (Engel class I) than earlier surgeries, and improvement was more marked in extratemporal and MRI-negative temporal epilepsy. The rate of persistent neurologic complications remained stable (4.6%-5.3%, p = 0.7). CONCLUSION: Improvements in European epilepsy surgery over time are modest but significant, including higher surgical volume, shorter disease duration, and improved postsurgical seizure outcomes. Early referral for evaluation is required to continue on this encouraging trend.

Individualized prediction of seizure relapse and outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery.

The objective of this study was to create a clinically useful tool for individualized prediction of seizure outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery. We used data from the European retrospective TimeToStop study, which included 766 children from 15 centers, to perform a proportional hazard regression analysis. The 2 outcome measures were seizure recurrence and seizure freedom in the last year of follow-up. Prognostic factors were identified through systematic review of the literature. The strongest predictors for each outcome were selected through backward selection, after which nomograms were created. The final models included 3 to 5 factors per model. Discrimination in terms of adjusted concordance statistic was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.69) for predicting seizure recurrence and 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) for predicting eventual seizure freedom. An online prediction tool is provided on www.epilepsypredictiontools.info/ttswithdrawal. The presented models can improve counseling of patients and parents regarding postoperative antiepileptic drug policies, by estimating individualized risks of seizure recurrence and eventual outcome.

Cognitive consequences of early versus late antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery, the TimeToStop (TTS) trial: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The goals of intentional curative pediatric epilepsy surgery are to achieve seizure-freedom and antiepileptic drug (AED) freedom. Retrospective cohort studies have indicated that early postoperative AED withdrawal unmasks incomplete surgical success and AED dependency sooner, but not at the cost of long-term seizure outcome. Moreover, AED withdrawal seemed to improve cognitive outcome. A randomized trial is needed to confirm these findings. We hypothesized that early AED withdrawal in children is not only safe, but also beneficial with respect to cognitive functioning. DESIGN: This is a multi-center pragmatic randomized clinical trial to investigate whether early AED withdrawal improves cognitive function, in terms of attention, executive function and intelligence, quality of life and behavior, and to confirm safety in terms of eventual seizure freedom, seizure recurrences and "seizure and AED freedom." Patients will be randomly allocated in parallel groups (1:1) to either early or late AED withdrawal. Randomization will be concealed and stratified for preoperative IQ and medical center. In the early withdrawal arm reduction of AEDs will start 4 months after surgery, while in the late withdrawal arm reduction starts 12 months after surgery, with intended complete cessation of drugs after 12 and 20 months respectively. Cognitive outcome measurements will be performed preoperatively, and at 1 and 2 years following surgery, and consist of assessment of attention and executive functioning using the EpiTrack Junior test and intelligence expressed as IQ (Wechsler Intelligence Scales). Seizure outcomes will be assessed at 24 months after surgery, and at 20 months following start of AED reduction. We aim to randomize 180 patients who underwent anticipated curative epilepsy surgery below 16 years of age, were able to perform the EpiTrack Junior test preoperatively, and have no predictors of poor postoperative seizure prognosis (multifocal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities, incomplete resection of the lesion, epileptic postoperative electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities, or more than three AEDs at the time of surgery). DISCUSSION: Growing experience with epilepsy surgery has changed the view towards postoperative medication policy. In a European collaboration, we designed a multi-center pragmatic randomized clinical trial comparing early with late AED withdrawal to investigate benefits and safety of early AED withdrawal. The TTS trial is supported by the Dutch Epilepsy Fund (NL 08-10) ISRCTN88423240/ 08/05/2013.

Antiepileptic drug withdrawal in medically and surgically treated patients: a meta-analysis of seizure recurrence and systematic review of its predictors.

AIM: Many seizure-free patients consider withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs, both when seizure control is achieved by medication alone, or once they became seizure-free following epilepsy surgery. The risk of recurrence is consequently of very important prognostic value. However, estimations of recurrence risks are outdated for both populations. In addition, although many publications have reported predictors of seizure relapse, no comprehensive overview of prognostic factors is available. METHODS: A systematic review of the databases of PubMed and EMBASE was conducted, identifying articles on antiepileptic drug withdrawal in patient cohorts. Recurrence risk meta-analyses were performed for both populations at one, two, three to four, and five or more years of follow-up. Within the selected articles, studies presenting multivariable analysis of predictors were identified; all studied predictors were listed, as well as all significant independent predictors. The quality of separate analyses of predictors was assessed. RESULTS: There was no significant difference of long-term cumulative recurrence risk between surgical and medication-only populations, with respectively 29% and 34% recurrences. In medication-only treated patients, 25 factors have been reported as significant independent predictors; 12 have been reported in surgical cohorts. The quality of most analyses of predictors was low to moderate. No predictor was consistently found among all analyses, and for most predictors, study results were contradictory. CONCLUSION: No consistent set of predictors could be identified because a large number of variables have been identified in the literature, many studies reported contradicting results, study populations varied considerably, and the quality of the original studies was often low. Meta-analysis of individual participant data is necessary, because it allows for (1) correction for differences in follow-up duration between subjects and studies, (2) a study of interaction effects, (3) calculation of more accurate estimates valid across several populations, and (4) the assessment of each predictor's effect size.

Changing profiles of pediatric epilepsy surgery candidates over time: A nationwide single-center experience from 1990 to 2011.

OBJECTIVE: Over the past decades, the number of epilepsy surgeries in children has increased and indications for surgery have broadened. We studied the changes in patient characteristics between 1990 and 2011 in a nationwide cohort and related these to seizure outcome and postoperative medication status. Second, we tried to identify predictors for seizure outcome after pediatric epilepsy surgery. METHODS: To study changes over time, we divided this retrospective cohort of 234 children into two consecutive time periods of 11 years, and statistically compared the epochs in terms of patient characteristics, surgical variables, complications, seizure outcome, and postoperative medication status. To identify predictors of postoperative seizure freedom, we performed univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: The number of surgeries per year increased from an average of 5 in the first, to 16 in the past epoch. Over time, significantly more surgeries were performed for malformations of cortical development, and more patients underwent magnetoencephalography (MEG) and invasive monitoring. Four percent of patients had a serious complication. Complete seizure freedom (Engel class IA) at 2 years after surgery was achieved in 74% of patients, which did not change significantly over time. The proportion of patients who were free from seizures and antiepileptic medication 2 years after surgery significantly increased from 13% to 32%. Factors predictive of seizure recurrence were preoperative intracranial monitoring, multilobar surgery, etiology, and longer duration of epilepsy before surgery. SIGNIFICANCE: Although more complex cases were operated over time and medication was withdrawn earlier after surgery, success rates at 2 years remained stable. In combination with low complication rates, this underscores the efficacy and safety of pediatric epilepsy surgery. It is important to consider epilepsy surgery early, as longer duration of epilepsy increased the risk of postoperative seizure recurrence.