Clinical Features and Outcomes of Patients with Pancreaticobiliary Malignancies in Los Angeles County and Their Association with CA 19-9 Levels.

Although CA 19-9 is a commonly used tumor marker in the management of PBMs, the literature describing outcomes in patients with PBMs who have undetectable or low (hereinafter "low") CA 19-9 levels remains scarce. In this study, we sought to compare clinical features and outcomes in patients with PBMs and low CA 19-9 levels to those with normal and elevated CA 19-9 levels. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data on patients with biopsy-confirmed PBMs and stratified patients into categories based on their CA 19-9 level at diagnosis. Survival curves were estimated for patients in each of the three aforementioned CA 19-9 groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: Of the 283 patients identified, 23 (8.1%) had low, 70 (24.7%) had normal, and 190 (67.1%) had elevated CA 19-9 levels. After controlling for sex, age, BMI, the presence of metastases at the time of diagnosis, and treatment with curative intent, the hazard ratio for death in the elevated CA 19-9 group compared to the low CA 19-9 group was 1.993 (95% CI 1.089-3.648; p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: The elevated CA 19-9 level compared to the low CA 19-9 level and the presence of metastases were associated with an increased hazard of death, while treatment with curative intent was associated with a decreased hazard of death.

Predictive Modeling of Colonoscopic Findings in a Fecal Immunochemical Test-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program.

BACKGROUND: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is the primary modality used by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (LADHS) for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in average-risk patients. Some patients referred for FIT-positive diagnostic colonoscopy have neither adenomas nor more advanced pathology. We aimed to identify predictors of false-positive FIT (FP-FIT) results in our largely disenfranchised, low socioeconomic status population. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 596 patients who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy following a positive screening FIT. Colonoscopies showing adenomas (or more advanced pathology) were considered positive. We employed multiple logistic and linear regression as well as machine learning models (MLMs) to identify clinical predictors of FP-FIT (primary outcome) and the presence of advanced adenomas (secondary outcome). RESULTS: Overall, 268 patients (45.0%) had a FP-FIT. Female sex and hemorrhoids (odds ratios [ORs] 1.59 and 1.89, respectively) were associated with increased odds of FP-FIT and fewer advanced adenomas (ß = - 0.658 and - 0.516, respectively). Conversely, increasing age and BMI (ORs 0.94 and 0.96, respectively) were associated with decreased odds of FP-FIT and a greater number of advanced adenomas (ß = 0.073 and 0.041, respectively). MLMs predicted FP-FIT with high specificity (93.8%) and presence of advanced adenoma with high sensitivity (94.4%). CONCLUSION: Increasing age and BMI are associated with lower odds of FP-FIT and greater number of advanced adenomas, while female sex and hemorrhoids are associated with higher odds of FP-FIT and fewer advanced adenomas. The presence of the aforementioned predictors may inform the decision to proceed with diagnostic colonoscopy in FIT-positive patients.