RESUMO
This study aimed to identify novel correlates which may relate to low bone mass at lumbar spine in mid-life Asian women. The possibility of developing a prediction model for osteoporosis (OP) was explored which resulted in a risk assessment tool that performed better than currently available tools. INTRODUCTION: In order to identify novel correlates associated with low spinal bone mineral density (BMD) in mid-life women, we examined a large number of lifestyle and medical and performance measurements and developed a prediction model for triage to BMD scanning. METHODS: Women (n = 512) aged 45-69 years (mean 57.0 ± 6.3) attending gynecology clinics for "well woman" visits were recruited for this cross-sectional study from 2014 to 2015. We assessed symptoms, medical history, anthropometry, and physical performance. Stepwise multinomial logistic regressions were performed to examine significant associated covariates for pre-specified outcomes (normal [T-score ≥ -1.0], low bone mass [T-score between -1 and -2.5], and OP [T-score ≤ -2.5] at the lumbar spine). A new screening model was developed, and its performance was compared with the OP Screening Tool for Asians (OSTA) and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®). RESULTS: Spinal OP was found in 6.8%. Multivariate analysis indicated that chronic joint pain, the most common symptom reported by 37.5% of the women, was significantly associated with OP. Only age (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 1.63; 95%CI, 1.03-2.60), weight (RRR 0.14; 95% CI, 0.07-0.27), postmenopausal status (RRR 11.59, 95%CI, 1.15-116.73), chronic joint pain (RRR, 4.12; 95% CI, 1.53-11.07), and right handgrip strength (RRR 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.80) were independently associated with spinal OP. Combining these five variables, our final model's area under curve (AUC) was significantly higher at 84% than both the OSTA [AUC; 79% (p value < 0.0231 'c' statistics)] and FRAX® [AUC 58% (p value < 0.0001 'c' statistic)]. CONCLUSION: A novel screening tool that combines age, weight, and menopausal status with chronic joint pain and right handgrip strength more reliably predicts spinal OP in mid-life Singaporean women.