Incremental Value of Multidomain Risk Factors for Dementia Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach.

OBJECTIVE: The current evidence regarding how different predictor domains contributes to predicting incident dementia remains unclear. This study aims to assess the incremental value of five predictor domains when added to a simple dementia risk prediction model (DRPM) for predicting incident dementia in older adults. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective cohort study. SETTING: UK Biobank study. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 60 or older without dementia. MEASUREMENTS: Fifty-five dementia-related predictors were gathered and categorized into clinical and medical history, questionnaire, cognition, polygenetic risk, and neuroimaging domains. Incident dementia (all-cause) and the subtypes, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD), were determined through hospital and death registries. Ensemble machine learning (ML) DRPMs were employed for prediction. The incremental values of risk predictors were assessed using the percent change in Area Under the Curve (∆AUC%) and the net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: The simple DRPM which included age, body mass index, sex, education, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, hypertension, depression, smoking, and alcohol consumption yielded an AUC of 0.711 (± 0.008 SD). The five predictor domains exhibited varying levels of incremental value over the basic model when predicting all-cause dementia and the two subtypes. Neuroimaging markers provided the highest incremental value in predicting all-cause dementia (∆AUC% +9.6%) and AD (∆AUC% +16.5%) while clinical and medical history data performed the best at predicting VaD (∆AUC% +12.2%). Combining clinical and medical history, and questionnaire data synergistically enhanced ML DRPM performance. CONCLUSION: Combining predictors from different domains generally results in better predictive performance. Selecting predictors involves trade-offs, and while neuroimaging markers can significantly enhance predictive accuracy, they may pose challenges in terms of cost or accessibility.

Comparative effectiveness of first-line antihypertensive drug classes on the maintenance of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in real world primary care.

Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi), particularly angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), are commonly used in the treatment of hypertension and are recommended for kidney protection. Uncertainty remains about the effectiveness of RASi being used as first-line antihypertensive therapy on eGFR maintenance compared to its alternatives, especially for those with no or early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 19,499 individuals (mean age 64.1, 43.5% males) from primary care in Singapore with 4.5 median follow-up years. The study cohort included newly diagnosed individuals with hypertension (whose eGFR was mainly in CKD stages G1-G2) and initiated on ACEIs, ARBs, beta-blockers (BBs), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) or diuretics (Ds) as first-line antihypertensive monotherapy. We compared the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) curve before/after the drug initiation over time of patients under different drug classes and analyzed the time to declining to a more advanced stage CKD. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for baseline confounding factors. Two key findings were observed. First, after initiating antihypertensive drugs, the eGFR almost maintained the same as the baseline in the first follow-up year, compared with dropping 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year before drug initiation. Second, ARBs were observed to be slightly inferior to ACEIs (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = (1.04, 1.23)) and other antihypertensive agents (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = (1.01, 1.20)) in delaying eGFR decline to a more advanced CKD stage in the study population. Our results showed that initiating antihypertensive agents can significantly maintain eGFR for those newly diagnosed patients with hypertension. However, RASi may not be superior to other antihypertensive agents in maintaining eGFR levels for non-CKD or early stages CKD patients.

Influence of secondhand smoke exposure on the retinal vasculature of children in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: A recent prospective demonstrated that cardiovascular risk factors in early childhood were associated with later cardiovascular events. However, the impact of secondhand smoke (SHS) on children is unclear. The aims of this study is to determine the effects of SHS exposure on the retinal vasculature of children. METHODS: This is a population-based cross-sectional study of children aged 6 to 8 years. All participants received comprehensive ophthalmic examinations and retinal photography. Data on SHS exposure was derived from a validated questionnaire. A validated deep-learning system was used to automatically estimate retinal arteriolar and venular calibers from retinal photographs. Associations of quantitative retinal vessel caliber values with SHS exposure, number of smokers in the household, and total number of cigarettes smoked were determined by analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) after adjusting for potential confounders. Test of trend was determined by treating categorical risk factors as continuous ordinal variables. RESULTS: Here we show children exposed to SHS have wider retinal arteriolar (CRAE 152.1 µm vs. 151.3 µm, p < 0.001) and venular (CRVE 216.7 µm vs. 215.5 µm, p < 0.001) calibers compared to those in smoke-free homes, after adjustment for different factors. Wider arteriolar and venular calibers are also associated with increasing number of smokers in the family (p trend < 0.001) and more cigarettes smoked among family smokers (p trend<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to SHS at home is associated with changes in retinal vasculature among children. This reinforces the adverse effect of secondhand smoking around children though further research incorporating comprehensive assessment of potential confounders is necessary.

Exposure to secondhand smoke can be harmful, particularly for our heart and lung health as adults. However, the impact of secondhand smoke on children is less clear. Here, we looked at the effects of secondhand smoke exposure on vessels within children's eyes. The health of these vessels is a potential indicator of overall eye health and is also associated with cardiovascular disease. Pictures were taken of children's eyes and analyzed using a computer program. We looked at the association between vessel measurements in the eye and how much secondhand smoke the children are exposed to. We observed differences in the vessels in children exposed to secondhand smoke, compared to those from smoke-free homes. These findings indicate that secondhand smoke may affect the health of children's eyes and highlight the need to promote smoke-free home environments.

Deep-learning retinal vessel calibre measurements and risk of cognitive decline and dementia.

Previous studies have explored the associations of retinal vessel calibre, measured from retinal photographs or fundus images using semi-automated computer programs, with cognitive impairment and dementia, supporting the concept that retinal blood vessels reflect microvascular changes in the brain. Recently, artificial intelligence deep-learning algorithms have been developed for the fully automated assessment of retinal vessel calibres. Therefore, we aimed to determine whether deep-learning-based retinal vessel calibre measurements are predictive of risk of cognitive decline and dementia. We conducted a prospective study recruiting participants from memory clinics at the National University Hospital and St. Luke's Hospital in Singapore; all participants had comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological examinations at baseline and annually for up to 5 years. Fully automated measurements of retinal arteriolar and venular calibres from retinal fundus images were estimated using a deep-learning system. Cox regression models were then used to assess the relationship between baseline retinal vessel calibre and the risk of cognitive decline and developing dementia, adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, education, cerebrovascular disease status, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and smoking. A total of 491 participants were included in this study, of whom 254 developed cognitive decline over 5 years. In multivariable models, narrower retinal arteriolar calibre (hazard ratio per standard deviation decrease = 1.258, P = 0.008) and wider retinal venular calibre (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase = 1.204, P = 0.037) were associated with increased risk of cognitive decline. Among participants with cognitive impairment but no dementia at baseline (n = 212), 44 progressed to have incident dementia; narrower retinal arteriolar calibre was also associated with incident dementia (hazard ratio per standard deviation decrease = 1.624, P = 0.021). In summary, deep-learning-based measurement of retinal vessel calibre was associated with risk of cognitive decline and dementia.

Artificial Intelligence Screening for Diabetic Retinopathy: the Real-World Emerging Application.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This paper systematically reviews the recent progress in diabetic retinopathy screening. It provides an integrated overview of the current state of knowledge of emerging techniques using artificial intelligence integration in national screening programs around the world. Existing methodological approaches and research insights are evaluated. An understanding of existing gaps and future directions is created. RECENT FINDINGS: Over the past decades, artificial intelligence has emerged into the scientific consciousness with breakthroughs that are sparking increasing interest among computer science and medical communities. Specifically, machine learning and deep learning (a subtype of machine learning) applications of artificial intelligence are spreading into areas that previously were thought to be only the purview of humans, and a number of applications in ophthalmology field have been explored. Multiple studies all around the world have demonstrated that such systems can behave on par with clinical experts with robust diagnostic performance in diabetic retinopathy diagnosis. However, only few tools have been evaluated in clinical prospective studies. Given the rapid and impressive progress of artificial intelligence technologies, the implementation of deep learning systems into routinely practiced diabetic retinopathy screening could represent a cost-effective alternative to help reduce the incidence of preventable blindness around the world.

On the accurate counting of tumor cells.

Quantitative analysis of tumor cells is fundamental to pathological studies. Current practices are mostly manual, time-consuming, and tedious, yielding subjective and imprecise results. To understand the behavior of tumor cells, it is critical to have an objective way to count these cells. In addition, these counts must be reproducible and independent of the person performing the count. In this work, we propose a two-stage tumor cell identification strategy. In the first stage, potential tumor cells are segmented automatically using local adaptive thresholding and dynamic water immersion techniques. Unfortunately, due to histological noise in the images, a large number of false identifications are obtained. To improve the accuracy of the identified tumor cells, a second stage of feature rules mining is initiated. Experiment results show that image processing techniques alone are unable to give accurate results for tumor cell counting. However, with the use of features rules, we are able to achieve an identification accuracy of 94.3%.