The Association between Serum Lipids and Intraocular Pressure in 2 Large United Kingdom Cohorts.

PURPOSE: Serum lipids are modifiable, routinely collected blood test features associated with cardiovascular health. We examined the association of commonly collected serum lipid measures (total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides) with intraocular pressure (IOP). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in the UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: We included 94 323 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age, 57 years) and 6230 participants from the EPIC-Norfolk (mean age, 68 years) cohorts with data on TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, and triglycerides collected between 2006 and 2009. METHODS: Multivariate linear regression adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, medical, and ophthalmic covariables was used to examine the associations of serum lipids with corneal-compensated IOP (IOPcc). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Corneal-compensated IOP. RESULTS: Higher levels of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C were associated independently with higher IOPcc in both cohorts after adjustment for key demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. For each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, IOPcc was higher by 0.09 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.11 mmHg; P < 0.001), 0.11 mmHg (95% CI, 0.08-0.13 mmHg; P < 0.001), and 0.07 mmHg (95% CI, 0.05-0.09 mmHg; P < 0.001), respectively, in the UK Biobank cohort. In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C was associated with a higher IOPcc by 0.19 mmHg (95% CI, 0.07-0.31 mmHg; P = 0.001), 0.14 mmHg (95% CI, 0.03-0.25 mmHg; P = 0.016), and 0.17 mmHg (95% CI, 0.06-0.29 mmHg; P = 0.003). An inverse association between triglyceride levels and IOP in the UK Biobank (-0.05 mmHg; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.03; P < 0.001) was not replicated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that serum TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C are associated positively with IOP in 2 United Kingdom cohorts and that triglyceride levels may be associated negatively. Future research is required to assess whether these associations are causal in nature.

Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39-79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998-2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 or missing data on covariates were excluded, leaving 12,337 participants for analyses. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 16.4 (15.7, 17.2) years. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for all-cause (2866 deaths) and CVD mortality (822 deaths), by categories of WC change, were determined using Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality for men and women with a WC gain (WCG) >  5 cm were 1.51 (1.29-1.75) and 1.25 (1.06-1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG >  5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39-2.43) and 1.15 (0.85-1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13-2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03-4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16-1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15-2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). CONCLUSIONS: Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits.

FEV1 and total Cardiovascular mortality and morbidity over an 18 years follow-up Population-Based Prospective EPIC-NORFOLK Study.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to determine the association between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent fatal and non-fatal events in a general population. METHODS: The Norfolk (UK) based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997. FEV1 measured by portable spirometry, was categorized into sex-specific quintiles. Mortality and morbidity from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and respiratory disease were collected from 1997 up to 2015. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used with adjustment for socio-economic factors, physical activity and co-morbidities. RESULTS: Mean age of the population was 58.7 ± 9.3 years, mean FEV1 for men was 294± 74 cL/s and 214± 52 cL/s for women. The adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality for participants in the highest fifth of the FEV1 category was 0.63 (0.52, 0.76) for men and 0.62 (0.51, 0.76) for women compared to the lowest quintile. Adjusted HRs for every 70 cL/s increase in FEV1 among men and women were 0.77 (p < 0.001) and 0.68 (p < 0.001) for total mortality, 0.85 (p<0.001) and 0.77 (p<0.001) for CVD and 0.52 (p <0.001) and 0.42 (p <0.001) for respiratory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with higher FEV1 levels had a lower risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. Measuring the FEV1 with a portable handheld spirometry measurement may be used as a surrogate marker for cardiovascular risk. Every effort should be made to identify those with poorer lung function even in the absence of cardiovascular disease as they are at greater risk of total and CV mortality.

The balance between food and dietary supplements in the general population.

In the past, vitamins and minerals were used to cure deficiency diseases. Supplements nowadays are used with the aim of reducing the risk of chronic diseases of which the origins are complex. Dietary supplement use has increased in the UK over recent decades, contributing to the nutrient intake in the population, but not necessarily the proportion of the population that is sub-optimally nourished; therefore, not reducing the proportion below the estimated average requirement and potentially increasing the number at risk of an intake above the safety limits. The supplement nutrient intake may be objectively monitored using circulation biomarkers. The influence of the researcher in how the supplements are grouped and how the nutrient intakes are quantified may however result in different conclusions regarding their nutrient contribution, the associations with biomarkers, in general, and dose-response associations specifically. The diet might be sufficient in micronutrients, but lacking in a balanced food intake. Since public-health nutrition guidelines are expressed in terms of foods, there is potentially a discrepancy between the nutrient-orientated supplement and the quality of the dietary pattern. To promote health, current public-health messages only advocate supplements in specific circumstances, but not in optimally nourished populations.

Mediterranean Diet Reduces Risk of Incident Stroke in a Population With Varying Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profiles.

Background and Purpose­: Although some evidence has found that the Mediterranean diet (MD) is protective for stroke risk, few studies have investigated whether this relationship differs by sex or cardiovascular disease risk. Methods­: We investigated the relationship between adherence to the MD score, estimated using 7-day dietary diaries and risk of incident stroke in an observational prospective population-based cohort study of 23 232 men and women (54.5% women) aged 40 to 77 years who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer study in Norfolk, United Kingdom. Risk of incident stroke was calculated using multivariable Cox regression, in the whole population, and also stratified by sex and cardiovascular disease risk profile, using the Framingham risk score. Results­: During 17.0 years of follow-up (395 048 total person-years), 2009 incident strokes occurred. Risk of stroke was significantly reduced with greater adherence to the MD score (quartile 4 versus quartile 1 hazard ratio [HR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94; P-trend <0.01) in the whole population and in women (quartile 4 versus quartile 1 HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65, 0.93; P-trend <0.01) but not in men (quartile 4 versus quartile 1 HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.79-1.12; P-trend =0.55). There was reduced risk of stroke in those at high risk of cardiovascular disease and across categories of the MD score (quartile 4 versus quartile 1 HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99; P-trend =0.04). However, this was driven by the associations in women (quartile 4 versus quartile 1 HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.97; P-trend =0.02). Conclusions­: Greater adherence to the MD was associated with lower risk of stroke in a UK white population. For the first time in the literature, we also investigated the associations between the MD score in those at both low and high risk of cardiovascular disease. Although the findings in our study were driven by the associations in women, they have implications for the general public and clinicians for prevention of stroke.

Weight change and 15 year mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study.

Studies have reported a higher mortality risk associated with weight loss, particularly in middle-aged and older adults, although some of these studies did find that gaining weight was also associated with an increased mortality risk. We examined changes in weight in relation to mortality in a prospective population-based cohort study of men and women, resident in Norfolk, UK. Participants were assessed at baseline (1993-1997) and at a second examination (1998-2000), as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study, and followed up to 2015 for mortality. Participants with a self-reported history of cancer or cardiovascular disease, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 or missing data on adjustment variables, at either time-point were excluded, leaving 12,580 participants, aged 39-78 in 1993-1997, eligible for analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine Hazard Ratios (HRs) for all-cause (2603 deaths), cardiovascular (749 deaths), cancer (981 deaths), respiratory (226 deaths) and other causes of mortality (647 deaths) by categories of weight change. After multivariate adjustment, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality for men and women who lost more than 5 kg were 1.85 (1.48-2.31) and 1.64 (1.31-2.05) respectively. Higher hazards were also found for specific causes of mortality and weight loss > 5 kg. Similar associations were observed after excluding deaths in the first 5 years of follow-up. Results for weight gain were inconclusive. We conclude that objectively measured weight loss, but not weight gain, was associated with subsequent higher mortality risk in this population-based study of middle-aged and elderly men and women. However, undiagnosed, pre-existing disease and the inability to account for weight cycling need to be remembered when interpreting these results. Unravelling the causal pathways underlying this association will require more detailed studies, including that of changes in body composition.

Longitudinal associations between marine omega-3 supplement users and coronary heart disease in a UK population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the association between marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) intake from supplements, mainly cod liver oil, and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study, with three exposure measurements over 22 years. SETTING: Norfolk-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk, UK). PARTICIPANTS: 22 035 men and women from the general population, 39-79 years at recruitment. EXPOSURE: Supplement use was assessed in three questionnaires (1993-1998; 2002-2004; 2004-2011). Participants were grouped into non-supplement users (NSU), n-3 PUFA supplement users (SU+n3) and non-n-3 PUFA supplement users (SU-n3). Cox regression adjusted for time-point specific variables: age, smoking, prevalent illnesses, body mass index, alcohol consumption, physical activity and season and baseline assessments of sex, social class, education and dietary intake (7-day diet diary). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: During a median of 19-year follow-up, 1562 CHD deaths were registered for 22 035 included participants. RESULTS: Baseline supplement use was not associated with CHD mortality, but baseline food and supplement intake of n-3 PUFA was inversely associated with CHD mortality after adjustment for fish consumption. Using time-varying covariate analysis, significant associations were observed for SU+n3 (HR: 0.74, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.84), but not for SU-n3 versus NSU. In further analyses, the association for SU+n3 persisted in those who did not take other supplements (HR: 0.83, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.97). Those who became SU+n3 over time or were consistent SU+n3 versus consistent NSU had a lower hazard of CHD mortality; no association with CHD was observed in those who stopped using n-3 PUFA-containing supplements. CONCLUSIONS: Recent use of n-3 PUFA supplements was associated with a lower hazard of CHD mortality in this general population with low fish consumption. Residual confounding cannot be excluded, but the findings observed may be explained by postulated biological mechanisms and the results were specific to SU+n3.

Carotenoid dietary intakes and plasma concentrations are associated with heel bone ultrasound attenuation and osteoporotic fracture risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort.

Carotenoids are found in abundance in fruit and vegetables, and may be involved in the positive association of these foods with bone health. This study aimed to explore the associations of dietary carotenoid intakes and plasma concentrations with bone density status and osteoporotic fracture risk in a European population. Cross-sectional analyses (n 14 803) of bone density status, using calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and longitudinal analyses (n 25 439) of fracture cases were conducted on data from the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort of middle-aged and older men and women. Health and lifestyle questionnaires were completed, and dietary nutrient intakes were derived from 7-d food diaries. Multiple regression demonstrated significant positive trends in BUA for women across quintiles of dietary α-carotene intake (P=0·029), ß-carotene intake (P=0·003), ß-cryptoxanthin intake (P=0·031), combined lutein and zeaxanthin intake (P=0·010) and lycopene intake (P=0·005). No significant trends across plasma carotenoid concentration quintiles were apparent (n 4570). The Prentice-weighted Cox regression showed no trends in fracture risk across dietary carotenoid intake quintiles (mean follow-up time 12·5 years), except for a lower risk for wrist fracture in women with higher lutein and zeaxanthin intake (P=0·022); nevertheless, inter-quintile differences in fracture risk were found for both sexes. Analysis of plasma carotenoid data (mean follow-up time 11·9 years) showed lower hip fracture risk in men across higher plasma α-carotene (P=0·026) and ß-carotene (P=0·027) quintiles. This study provides novel evidence that dietary carotenoid intake is relevant to bone health in men and women, demonstrating that associations with bone density status and fracture risk exist for dietary intake of specific carotenoids and their plasma concentrations.

Higher Meat Intake Is Positively Associated With Higher Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer in an Age-Dependent Manner and Are Modified by Plasma Antioxidants: A Prospective Cohort Study (EPIC-Norfolk) Using Data From Food Diaries.

OBJECTIVE: Carcinogens in meat may be involved in pancreatic carcinogenesis. Meat intake was investigated using 7-day food diaries and according to factors potentially influencing carcinogenesis: age, cooking method, and antioxidants. METHODS: Twenty-three thousand one hundred thirty-three participants in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk cohort study completed 7-day food diaries and were followed up. Meat intakes were compared with controls and hazard ratios (HRs) calculated. RESULTS: Eighty-six participants developed pancreatic cancer. If younger than 60 years at recruitment, all quintiles of red meat (Q1 vs Q5; HR, 4.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96-22.30; P = 0.06) and processed meat (Q1 vs Q5; HR, 3.73; 95% CI, 0.95-14.66; P = 0.06) were nonsignificantly positively associated, with significant trends across quintiles (HRtrend, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.01-1.77 and HRtrend, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.04-1.82, respectively). Red meat's effect was attenuated by higher, but not lower, plasma vitamin C (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.69-1.63 vs HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.09-3.14) and for processed meat (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.71-1.63 vs HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.10-2.96). A nonstatistically significant risk was observed for high-temperature cooking methods in younger people (HR, 4.68; 95% CI, 0.63-34.70; P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Red and processed meats may be involved in pancreatic carcinogenesis.

Fracture Risk in Relation to Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Physical Activity: Results from the EPIC-Norfolk Cohort Study.

Vitamin D deficiency and physical inactivity have been associated with bone loss and fractures, but their combined effect has scarcely been studied either in younger or older adults. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between physical activity, age and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status separately and in combination with the incidence of fracture risk in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study. Baseline (1993-1998) self-reported physical activity and serum 25(OH)D concentrations at follow-up (1998-2000) were collected in 14,624 men and women (aged 42-82 y between 1998 and 2000). Fracture incidence was ascertained up to March 2015. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine HRs of fractures by plasma 25(OH)D (<30, 30 to <50, 50 to <70, 70 to <90, >90 nmol/L), age (<65 y and >65 y) and physical activity (inactive and active) categories, by follow-up time per 20 nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D and to explore age-25(OH)D and physical activity-25(OH)D interactions. The age-, sex-, and month-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for all fractures (1183 fractures) by increasing vitamin D category were not significantly different. With additional adjustment for body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, supplement use and history of fractures, the fracture risk was 29% lower in those participants with 50 to 70 nmol/L compared with those in the lowest quintile (<30 nmol/L). Physical inactivity based on a single baseline assessment was not associated with fracture risk. Vitamin D status appeared inversely related to fractures in middle aged adults. In older adults, the relationship between vitamin D status and fracture risk was observed to be J-shaped. Clinical and public health practice in vitamin D supplementation could partially explain these findings, although definitive conclusions are difficult due to potential changes in exposure status over the long follow up period.

Cross-sectional and prospective associations between dietary and plasma vitamin C, heel bone ultrasound, and fracture risk in men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin C sufficiency may help prevent osteoporosis and fractures by mediating osteoclastogenesis, osteoblastogenesis, and bone collagen synthesis. OBJECTIVE: We determined whether dietary intakes and plasma concentrations of vitamin C were associated with a heel ultrasound and hip and spine fracture risks in older men and women. DESIGN: Participants were recruited from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk study with 7-d diet diary estimates of vitamin C intake and plasma concentrations. A random subset (4000 of 25,639 subjects) was available for the cross-sectional (ultrasound) study of broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and velocity of sound (VOS), which were determined during the second health examination. The prospective (fracture) study was a case-cohort sample of all participants with a fracture up to March 2009 and the random subset (n = 5319). ANCOVA-determined associations between quintiles of vitamin C intake and plasma status with adjusted BUA and VOS and adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox proportional HRs were calculated for fracture risk. RESULTS: Women were 58% of the population (39-79 y old), and the median follow-up was 12.6 y (range: 0-16 y). Positive associations across all quintiles of vitamin C intake but not plasma status were significant for VOS in men (ß = 2.47 m/s, P = 0.008) and BUA in women (ß = 0.82 dB/MHz, P = 0.004). Vitamin C intake was not associated with fracture risk, but there was an inverse association with plasma concentrations in men, with quintile 4 having significantly lower risks of hip fractures (HR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.80) and spine fractures (HR: 0.26; 95% CI: 0.10, 0.69) than quintile 1. CONCLUSIONS: Higher vitamin C intake was significantly associated with higher heel ultrasound measures in men and women, and higher plasma vitamin C concentrations were significantly associated with reduced fracture risk in men only. Our findings that vitamin C intake and status were inconsistently associated with bone health variables suggest that additional research is warranted.

Dietary magnesium and potassium intakes and circulating magnesium are associated with heel bone ultrasound attenuation and osteoporotic fracture risk in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In our aging population, maintenance of bone health is critical to reduce the risk of osteoporosis and potentially debilitating consequences of fractures in older individuals. Among modifiable lifestyle and dietary factors, dietary magnesium and potassium intakes are postulated to influence bone quality and osteoporosis, principally via calcium-dependent alteration of bone structure and turnover. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the influence of dietary magnesium and potassium intakes, as well as circulating magnesium, on bone density status and fracture risk in an adult population in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: A random subset of 4000 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort of 25,639 men and women with baseline data was used for bone density cross-sectional analyses and combined with fracture cases (n = 1502) for fracture case-cohort longitudinal analyses (mean follow-up 13.4 y). Relevant biological, lifestyle, and dietary covariates were used in multivariate regression analyses to determine associations between dietary magnesium and potassium intakes and calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), as well as in Prentice-weighted Cox regression to determine associated risk of fracture. Separate analyses, excluding dietary covariates, investigated associations of BUA and fractures with serum magnesium concentration. RESULTS: Statistically significant positive trends in calcaneal BUA for women (n = 1360) but not men (n = 968) were apparent across increasing quintiles of magnesium plus potassium (Mg+K) z score intake (P = 0.03) or potassium intake alone (P = 0.04). Reduced hip fracture risk in both men (n = 1958) and women (n = 2755) was evident for individuals in specific Mg+K z score intake quintiles compared with the lowest. Statistically significant trends in fracture risk in men across serum magnesium concentration groups were apparent for spine fractures (P = 0.02) and total hip, spine, and wrist fractures (P = 0.02). None of these individual statistically significant associations remained after adjustment for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: These findings enhance the limited literature studying the association of magnesium and potassium with bone density and demonstrate that further investigation is warranted into the mechanisms involved and the potential protective role against osteoporosis.

The relationship between dietary magnesium intake, stroke and its major risk factors, blood pressure and cholesterol, in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND: Dietary magnesium could modify the major stroke risk factors, high blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol, but has been understudied in both sexes in a single population. This study aimed to investigate if dietary magnesium intake was associated with BP, total cholesterol (TC) and incident stroke risk in an adult population. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analyses in a case-cohort study of 4443, men and women aged 40-75, representative of 25,639 participants years of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk cohort. The cohort included 928 stroke cases (42,556.5 person years). Dietary data from 7 day food diaries were analysed using multivariate regression to assess associations between quintiles or data-derived categories of dietary magnesium intake and BP, TC and stroke risk, adjusted for relevant confounders. RESULTS: We observed differences of -7 mmHg systolic BP (P trend ≤ 0.01) and -3.8 mmHg diastolic BP (P trend=0.01) between extreme intakes of magnesium in men, a significant inverse association with TC was observed (P trend=0.02 men and 0.04 women). Compared to the bottom 10%, the top 30% of magnesium intake was associated with a 41% relative reduction in stroke risk (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.38-0.93) in men. CONCLUSIONS: Lower dietary magnesium intake was associated with higher BP and stroke risk, which may have implications for primary prevention.

Habitual chocolate consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease among healthy men and women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between chocolate intake and the risk of future cardiovascular events. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort. Habitual chocolate intake was quantified using the baseline food frequency questionnaire (1993-1997) and cardiovascular end points were ascertained up to March 2008. A systematic review was performed to evaluate chocolate consumption and cardiovascular outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 20,951 men and women were included in EPIC-Norfolk analysis (mean follow-up 11.3±2.8 years, median 11.9 years). The percentage of participants with coronary heart disease (CHD) in the highest and lowest quintile of chocolate consumption was 9.7% and 13.8%, and the respective rates for stroke were 3.1% and 5.4%. The multivariate-adjusted HR for CHD was 0.88 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.01) for those in the top quintile of chocolate consumption (16-99 g/day) versus non-consumers of chocolate intake. The corresponding HR for stroke and cardiovascular disease (cardiovascular disease defined by the sum of CHD and stroke) were 0.77 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.97) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.97). The propensity score matched estimates showed a similar trend. A total of nine studies with 157,809 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Higher compared to lower chocolate consumption was associated with significantly lower CHD risk (five studies; pooled RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.92), stroke (five studies; pooled RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87), composite cardiovascular adverse outcome (two studies; pooled RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.05), and cardiovascular mortality (three studies; pooled RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative evidence suggests that higher chocolate intake is associated with a lower risk of future cardiovascular events, although residual confounding cannot be excluded. There does not appear to be any evidence to say that chocolate should be avoided in those who are concerned about cardiovascular risk.

Prospective associations and population impact of sweet beverage intake and type 2 diabetes, and effects of substitutions with alternative beverages.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to evaluate the association of types of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) (soft drinks, sweetened-milk beverages, sweetened tea/coffee), artificially sweetened beverages (ASB) and fruit juice with incident type 2 diabetes and determine the effects of substituting non-SSB for SSB and the population-attributable fraction of type 2 diabetes due to total sweet beverages. METHODS: Beverage consumption of 25,639 UK-resident adults without diabetes at baseline (1993-1997) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk study was assessed using 7-day food diaries. During 10.8 years of follow-up 847 incident type 2 diabetes cases were verified. RESULTS: In adjusted Cox regression analyses there were positive associations (HR [95% CI] per serving/day]) for soft drinks 1.21 (1.05, 1.39), sweetened-milk beverages 1.22 (1.05, 1.43) and ASB 1.22 (1.11, 1.33), but not for sweetened tea/coffee 0.98 (0.94, 1.02) or fruit juice 1.01 (0.88, 1.15). Further adjustment for adiposity attenuated the association of ASB, HR 1.06 (0.93, 1.20). There was a positive dose-response relationship with total sweet beverages: HR per 5% energy 1.18 (1.11, 1.26). Substituting ASB for any SSB did not reduce the incidence in analyses accounting for energy intake and adiposity. Substituting one serving/day of water or unsweetened tea/coffee for soft drinks and for sweetened-milk beverages reduced the incidence by 14%-25%. If sweet beverage consumers reduced intake to below 2% energy, 15% of incident diabetes might be prevented. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The consumption of soft drinks, sweetened-milk beverages and energy from total sweet beverages was associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk independently of adiposity. Water or unsweetened tea/coffee appear to be suitable alternatives to SSB for diabetes prevention. These findings support the implementation of population-based interventions to reduce SSB consumption and increase the consumption of suitable alternatives.

Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk).

Dietary intervention studies suggest that flavan-3-ol intake can improve vascular function and reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, results from prospective studies failed to show a consistent beneficial effect. Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) were investigated. Data were available from 24,885 (11,252 men; 13,633 women) participants, recruited between 1993 and 1997 into the EPIC-Norfolk study. Flavan-3-ol intake was assessed using 7-day food diaries and the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition database. Missing data for plasma cholesterol and vitamin C were imputed using multiple imputation. Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and blood pressure at baseline were determined using linear regression models. Associations with CVD risk were estimated using Cox regression analyses. Median intake of total flavan-3-ols was 1034mg/d (range: 0-8531mg/d) for men and 970mg/d (0-6695mg/d) for women, median intake of flavan-3-ol monomers was 233mg/d (0-3248mg/d) for men and 217 (0-2712mg/d) for women. There were no consistent associations between flavan-3-ol monomer intake and baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). After 286,147 person-years of follow-up, there were 8463 cardiovascular events and 1987 CVD related deaths; no consistent association between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87; 1.00; Q1 vs Q5) or mortality was observed (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.84; 1.04). Flavan-3-ol intake in EPIC-Norfolk is not sufficient to achieve a statistically significant reduction in CVD risk.

Tinned fruit consumption and mortality in three prospective cohorts.

Dietary recommendations to promote health include fresh, frozen and tinned fruit, but few studies have examined the health benefits of tinned fruit. We therefore studied the association between tinned fruit consumption and mortality. We followed up participants from three prospective cohorts in the United Kingdom: 22,421 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort (1993-2012), 52,625 participants from the EPIC-Oxford cohort (1993-2012), and 7440 participants from the Whitehall II cohort (1991-2012), all reporting no history of heart attack, stroke, or cancer when entering these studies. We estimated the association between frequency of tinned fruit consumption and all cause mortality (primary outcome measure) using Cox regression models within each cohort, and pooled hazard ratios across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Tinned fruit consumption was assessed with validated food frequency questionnaires including specific questions about tinned fruit. During 1,305,330 person years of follow-up, 8857 deaths occurred. After adjustment for lifestyle factors and risk markers the pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of all cause mortality compared with the reference group of tinned fruit consumption less often than one serving per month were: 1.05 (0.99, 1.12) for one to three servings per month, 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) for one serving per week, and 1.13 (1.04, 1.23) for two or more servings per week. Analysis of cause-specific mortality showed that tinned fruit consumption was associated with mortality from cardiovascular causes and from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. In a pooled analysis of three prospective cohorts from the United Kingdom self-reported tinned fruit consumption in the 1990s was weakly but positively associated with mortality during long-term follow-up. These findings raise questions about the evidence underlying dietary recommendations to promote tinned fruit consumption as part of a healthy diet.

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk).

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: EPIC-Norfolk in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. SUBJECTS: Men and women (n 1734) aged 39-77 years. Sucrose intake was assessed using 7 d diet diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as a biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI>25·0 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26·8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with the biomarker. Associations between the biomarker and BMI were positive (ß=0·25; 95 % CI 0·08, 0·43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (ß=-1·40; 95 % CI -1·81, -0·99). The age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI>25·0 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth v. first quintile was 1·54 (95 % CI 1·12, 2·12; P trend=0·003) when using biomarker and 0·56 (95 % CI 0·40, 0·77; P trend<0·001) with self-reported dietary data. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with BMI. Future studies should consider the use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.

Opposites don't attract: high spouse concordance for dietary supplement use in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Dietary supplements are commonly consumed but may not be beneficial for everyone. It is known that supplement users have healthy behaviour characteristics but until now concordance between spouses living in the same household has not been investigated and concordance may be an important behavioural determinant. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study, cross-sectional data analysis. SETTING: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1998. SUBJECTS: Married (or living as married) participants sharing a household, who attended a health examination and completed a 7 d diet diary were included in the analysis (n 11 060). The age range was 39-79 years. RESULTS: Nearly 75 % of the households in EPIC-Norfolk were concordant in their supplement use, with 46·7 % not using supplements and 27·0 % using supplements. Concordance increased with age; the percentage of concordant couples varied less by other sociodemographic characteristics. Participants who had a spouse who used a supplement were nearly nine times more likely to use a supplement (unadjusted). Depending on participants' sex and type of supplement used, odds ratios for 'supplement use by spouse' in the prediction of participants' supplement use varied between 6·2 and 11·7 adjusted for participants' age, smoking status, BMI, social class, education level and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: 'Supplement use by spouse' is an independent and the strongest predictor of participants' supplement use. This phenomenon can be useful in the design of studies and health interventions; or when assessing risk of excessive intake from dietary supplements.

Cod liver oil supplement consumption and health: cross-sectional results from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

Supplement users (SU) make healthy lifestyle choices; on the other hand, SU report more medical conditions. We hypothesised that cod liver oil (CLO) consumers are similar to non-supplement users, since CLO use might originate from historical motives, i.e., rickets prevention, and not health consciousness. CLO consumers were studied in order to identify possible confounders, such as confounding by indication. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) investigates causes of chronic disease. The participants were 25,639 men and women, aged 40-79 years, recruited from general practices in Norfolk, East-Anglia (UK). Participants completed questionnaires and a health examination between 1993 and 1998. Supplement use was measured using 7-day diet diaries. CLO was the most common supplement used, more prevalent among women and associated with not smoking, higher physical activity level and more favourable eating habits. SU had a higher occurrence of benign growths and bone-related diseases, but CLO was negatively associated with cardiovascular-related conditions. Although the results of SU characteristics in EPIC-Norfolk are comparable with studies worldwide, the CLO group is different from SU in general. Confounding by indication takes place and will need to be taken into account when analysing prospective associations of CLO use with fracture risk and cardiovascular diseases.