Adolescent nutrition and physical activity in low-income suburbs of Abidjan, Côte d'lvoire: the gap between knowledge, aspirations and possibilities.

OBJECTIVE: To explore adolescents' perceptions, knowledge and behaviours regarding nutrition and physical activity in low-income districts of Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, taking into consideration their caregivers' perspectives. DESIGN: Two investigators conducted six focus group discussions. SETTING: The study was carried out in two low-income suburbs, Yopougon and Port-Bouët, in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. PARTICIPANTS: Adolescents and their caregivers were recruited into the study via local head teachers and heads of settlement. RESULTS: Overall, seventy-two participants, including forty-six adolescents and twenty-six caregivers, took part. Participants demonstrated good nutrition knowledge, relating nutritional health to a balanced diet and hygiene. Sustained physical activity was reported. However, adopting good practices was challenging due to participant's economic circumstances. Their environment was a barrier to improving health due to dirtiness and violence, with a lack of space limiting the possibility to practice sport. Adolescents and their caregivers differed in their response to these constraints. Many caregivers felt powerless and suggested that a political response was the solution. Alternatively, adolescents were more likely to suggest new creative solutions such as youth-friendly centres within their community. CONCLUSIONS: Participants were aware that their nutritional habits were not in line with what they had learnt to be good nutritional practices due to socio-economic constraints. Physical activity was part of adolescent life, but opportunities to exercise were restricted by their environment. Strategies for improving adolescent health in these settings need to be developed in collaboration with adolescents in a manner that accommodates their opinions and solutions.

Human papilloma viruses infection among adolescent females perinatally infected with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer prevention strategies recommend human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination for female adolescents prior to their sexual debut. While HIV is a major risk factor for HPV infection in women of childbearing age, its prevalence among HIV-infected adolescent female is mostly unknown. This study aimed to describe the HPV prevalence and correlates among perinatally HIV-infected adolescent females prior to HPV immunisation. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to June 2016, in the four major paediatric HIV clinics of Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. All HIV-infected females aged 11-16 years were approached to participate in the study. A questionnaire assessing sexual behaviours and genital hygiene practices was administered to participants completed with a systematic vaginal swab collection. HPV genotyping was performed using the Anyplex II HPV28 Detection (Seegene). A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with the presence of HPV infection. HPV immunisation was proposed free of charge to all participants. RESULTS: A total of 250 participants were included, with a median age of 13 years (IQR 11-14). Among them, 237 (94.8%) were on antiretroviral treatment with a median CD4 count of 660 (IQR 439-914) cells/mm3. The overall prevalence of at least one HPV was 3.6% (95% CI 1.6 to 6.7) and the prevalence of at least one carcinogenic HPV was 2.8% (95% CI 0.7 to 4.8). Vaginal cleansing was reported by 75 (30%) of participants, with a median age at initiation of 12 years (IQR 10-13). Sexual activity was self-reported by 12 (4.8%) participants with a median age at sexual debut of 11 years (IQR 10-14). HPV infection was associated with vaginal cleansing (adjusted OR=7.0 (95% CI 1.4 to 31.6)). CONCLUSION: The reported low prevalence of carcinogenic HPV infections supports the appropriateness of HPV immunisation in this population. The reported association between cleansing practices and HPV infection deserves further prospective longitudinal studies.

Association between depressive symptoms and adherence among adolescents living with HIV in the Republic of Congo: A cross sectional study.

The increasing availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) worldwide is yet to result in decreasing HIV-related mortality among adolescents (10-19 years old) living with HIV (ALHIV) in part because of poor adherence. the poor adherence might itself be due to high level of depression. We assess the prevalence of depressive symptomatology and it's associated with adherence among ALHIV receiving ART care in Brazzaville and Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo (RoC).Adolescents aged 10 to 19 years, on antiretroviral therapy (ART), followed in the two Ambulatory Treatment Centers (ATC) in Brazzaville and Pointe Noire, RoC were included in this cross-sectional study. From April 19 to July 9, 2018, participants were administered face to face interviews using a standardized questionnaire that included the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Participants who reported failing to take their ART more than twice in the 7 days preceding the interview were classified as non-adherent. Bivariate and multivariable log-binomial models were used to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) assessing the strength of association between predictors and presence of depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 score ≥9).Overall, 135 adolescents represented 50% of ALHIV in active care at the 2 clinics were interviewed. Of those, 67 (50%) were male, 81 (60%) were 15 to 19 years old, 124 (95%) had been perinatally infected, and 71 (53%) knew their HIV status. Depressive symptoms were present in 52 (39%) participants and 78 (58%) were adherent. In univariate analyses, the prevalence of depressive symptoms was relative higher among participants who were not adherent compared to those who were (73% vs 33%; PR: 2.20 [95%CI: 1.42-3.41]). In multivariate analysis, after adjustment for report of been sexually active, alcohol drinking, age category (10-14 and 15-19), not in school, loss of both parents, the association between depression and adherence was strengthened (PR: 2.06 [95%CI: 1.23-3.45]).The prevalence of depressive symptoms in adolescents living with HIV is high and was strongly associated with poor adherence even after adjustment of potential confounders. Efforts to scale-up access to screening and management of depression among ALHIV in sub-Saharan is needed for them to realize the full of ART.

Mortality and losses to follow-up among adolescents living with HIV in the IeDEA global cohort collaboration.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed mortality and losses to follow-up (LTFU) during adolescence in routine care settings in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium. METHODS: Cohorts in the Asia-Pacific, the Caribbean, Central, and South America, and sub-Saharan Africa (Central, East, Southern, West) contributed data, and included adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) enrolled from January 2003 and aged 10 to 19 years (period of adolescence) while under care up to database closure (June 2016). Follow-up started at age 10 years or the first clinic visit, whichever was later. Entering care at <15 years was a proxy for perinatal infection, while entering care ≥15 years represented infection acquired during adolescence. Competing risk regression was used to assess associations with death and LTFU among those ever receiving triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (triple-ART). RESULTS: Of the 61,242 ALHIV from 270 clinics in 34 countries included in the analysis, 69% (n = 42,138) entered care <15 years of age (53% female), and 31% (n = 19,104) entered care ≥15 years (81% female). During adolescence, 3.9% died, 30% were LTFU and 8.1% were transferred. For those with infection acquired perinatally versus during adolescence, the four-year cumulative incidences of mortality were 3.9% versus 5.4% and of LTFU were 26% versus 69% respectively (both p < 0.001). Overall, there were higher hazards of death for females (adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 1.33), and those starting treatment at ≥5 years of age (highest asHR for age ≥15: 8.72, 95% CI 5.85 to 13.02), and in care in mostly urban (asHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.75) and mostly rural settings (asHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.87) compared to urban settings. Overall, higher hazards of LTFU were observed among females (asHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.17), and those starting treatment at age ≥5 years (highest asHR for age ≥15: 11.11, 95% CI 9.86 to 12.53), in care at district hospitals (asHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.37) or in rural settings (asHR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.29), and starting triple-ART after 2006 (highest asHR for 2011 to 2016 1.84, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.99). CONCLUSIONS: Both mortality and LTFU were worse among those entering care at ≥15 years. ALHIV should be evaluated apart from younger children and adults to identify population-specific reasons for death and LTFU.

Using Observational Data to Inform HIV Policy Change for Children and Youth.

Observational data characterizing the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemics in real-world settings are critical to informing clinical guidelines, governmental HIV programs, and donor prioritization. Global expertise in curating and analyzing these data has been expanding, with increasingly robust collaborations and the identification of gaps in existing surveillance capacity. In this commentary, we describe existing sources of observational data for children and youth living with HIV, focusing on larger regional and global research cohorts, and targeted surveillance studies and programs. Observational data are valuable resources to cross-validate other research and to monitor the impact of changing HIV program policies. Observational studies were among the first to highlight the growing population of children surviving perinatal HIV and transitioning to adolescence and young adulthood, and have raised serious concerns about high rates of treatment failure, loss to follow-up, and death among older perinatally infected youth. The use of observational data to inform modeling of the current global epidemic, predict future patterns of the youth cascade, and facilitate antiretroviral forecasting are critical priorities and key end products of observational HIV research. Greater investments into data infrastructure are needed at the local level to improve data quality and at the global level to faciliate reliable interpretation of the evolving patterns of the pediatric and youth epidemics. Although this includes harmonized data forms, use of unique patient identifiers to allow for data linkages across routine data sets and electronic medical record systems, and competent data managers and analysts are essential to make optimal use of the data collected.

Brief Report: Pediatric Cancer Burden and Treatment Resources Within the Pediatric IeDEA Consortium.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence and treatment of cancer in HIV-infected children from resource-limited settings has not been extensively studied. OBJECTIVES: Develop and implement a cross-sectional survey to evaluate pediatric cancer burden, diagnostic modalities in use, and treatment availability as perceived by HIV clinic staff at regional International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) sites. METHODS: IeDEA regional investigators developed a cross-sectional clinical site survey which included questions on the numbers and types of pediatric cancers observed, modalities used to treat identified cancers, and treatment options available at individual sites in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Central Africa, East Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa regions. RESULTS: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and Burkitt lymphoma were reported by site personnel to be the most prevalent types of cancer in the pediatric HIV population. Survey results indicate that access to comprehensive cancer treatment modalities is very limited for children in these regions despite HIV care and treatment sites reporting that they diagnose pediatric cancers. Responses also showed that evaluating cancer in the pediatric HIV population is a challenge due to a lack of resources and varying treatment availability within regions. CONCLUSIONS: Further study is needed to increase our understanding of the changing epidemiology of cancer in HIV-infected pediatric populations. Increased financial and technical resources are critical to aid in the advancement of health services to support treatment of these children in resource-constrained settings.

Health and survival of HIV perinatally exposed but uninfected children born to HIV-infected mothers.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The number of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) infants exposed to both HIV and multiple antiretroviral drugs in utero and during prolonged breastfeeding is increasing in low-income countries where HIV prevalence is the highest. We review recent evidence on the effects of perinatal/postnatal exposure to maternal HIV and combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) on health outcomes of HEU children (mitochondrial and metabolic toxicity, adverse pregnancy outcomes, neurodevelopment, growth, infectious morbidity, and mortality). RECENT FINDINGS: Several studies have reported ART-associated mitochondrial toxicity and metabolic disorders with conflicting results on adverse pregnancy outcomes, underscoring the need to conduct further investigations on these questions. Studies about congenital abnormalities report no significant differences between HEU exposed to ART and HIV-unexposed (HUU) children. Updated French data showed no significant difference in cancer incidence between HEU cART-exposed children and the general paediatric population. Furthermore, HEU children exposed to maternal cART have modest but significant impairment of development and a higher risk of growth impairment. Finally, HEU have higher risks of infections (mainly low respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea) and malaria than HUU children, particularly in children not breastfed or after early weaning. Higher mortality risk from infectious disease is reported in HEU compared to HUU children. SUMMARY: As we move toward the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, HEU children are an emerging population whose health outcomes remain to be fully described. Future large cohorts of HEU children using careful comparison groups of HUU in the post-ART era are needed to better understand their long-term health outcomes.

Reasons for hospitalization in HIV-infected children in West Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Current knowledge on morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected children comes from data collected in specific research programmes, which may offer a different standard of care compared to routine care. We described hospitalization data within a large observational cohort of HIV-infected children in West Africa (IeDEA West Africa collaboration). METHODS: We performed a six-month prospective multicentre survey from April to October 2010 in five HIV-specialized paediatric hospital wards in Ouagadougou, Accra, Cotonou, Dakar and Bamako. Baseline and follow-up data during hospitalization were recorded using a standardized clinical form, and extracted from hospitalization files and local databases. Event validation committees reviewed diagnoses within each centre. HIV-related events were defined according to the WHO definitions. RESULTS: From April to October 2010, 155 HIV-infected children were hospitalized; median age was 3 years [1-8]. Among them, 90 (58%) were confirmed for HIV infection during their stay; 138 (89%) were already receiving cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and 64 children (40%) had initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). The median length of stay was 13 days (IQR: 7-23); 25 children (16%) died during hospitalization and four (3%) were transferred out. The leading causes of hospitalization were WHO stage 3 opportunistic infections (37%), non-AIDS-defining events (28%), cachexia and other WHO stage 4 events (25%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, most causes of hospitalizations were HIV related but one hospitalization in three was caused by a non-AIDS-defining event, mostly in children on ART. HIV-related fatality is also high despite the scaling-up of access to ART in resource-limited settings.

Is early detection of abused children possible?: a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of the identification of abused children.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of abused children could help decrease mortality and morbidity related to this major public health problem. Several authors have proposed tools to screen for child maltreatment. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the evidence on accuracy of tools proposed to identify abused children before their death and assess if any were adapted to screening. METHODS: We searched in PUBMED, PsycINFO, SCOPUS, FRANCIS and PASCAL for studies estimating diagnostic accuracy of tools identifying neglect, or physical, psychological or sexual abuse of children, published in English or French from 1961 to April 2012. We extracted selected information about study design, patient populations, assessment methods, and the accuracy parameters. Study quality was assessed using QUADAS criteria. RESULTS: A total of 2 280 articles were identified. Thirteen studies were selected, of which seven dealt with physical abuse, four with sexual abuse, one with emotional abuse, and one with any abuse and physical neglect. Study quality was low, even when not considering the lack of gold standard for detection of abused children. In 11 studies, instruments identified abused children only when they had clinical symptoms. Sensitivity of tests varied between 0.26 (95% confidence interval [0.17-0.36]) and 0.97 [0.84-1], and specificity between 0.51 [0.39-0.63] and 1 [0.95-1]. The sensitivity was greater than 90% only for three tests: the absence of scalp swelling to identify children victims of inflicted head injury; a decision tool to identify physically-abused children among those hospitalized in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit; and a parental interview integrating twelve child symptoms to identify sexually-abused children. When the sensitivity was high, the specificity was always smaller than 90%. CONCLUSIONS: In 2012, there is low-quality evidence on the accuracy of instruments for identifying abused children. Identified tools were not adapted to screening because of low sensitivity and late identification of abused children when they have already serious consequences of maltreatment. Development of valid screening instruments is a pre-requisite before considering screening programs.

Universal HIV screening at postnatal points of care: which public health approach for early infant diagnosis in Côte d'Ivoire?

BACKGROUND: Universal HIV pediatric screening offered at postnatal points of care (PPOC) is an entry point for early infant diagnosis (EID). We assessed the parents' acceptability of this approach in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, trained counselors offered systematic HIV screening to all children aged 6-26 weeks attending PPOC in three community health centers with existing access to HAART during 2008, as well as their parents/caregivers. HIV-testing acceptability was measured for parents and children; rapid HIV tests were used for parents. Both parents' consent was required according to the Ivorian Ethical Committee to perform a HIV test on HIV-exposed children. Free HIV care was offered to those who were diagnosed HIV-infected. FINDINGS: We provided 3,013 HIV tests for infants and their 2,986 mothers. While 1,731 mothers (58%) accepted the principle of EID, only 447 infants had formal parental consent 15%; 95% confidence interval (CI): [14%-16%]. Overall, 1,817 mothers (61%) accepted to test for HIV, of whom 81 were HIV-infected (4.5%; 95% CI: [3.5%-5.4%]). Among the 81 HIV-exposed children, 42 (52%) had provided parental consent and were tested: five were HIV-infected (11.9%; 95% CI: [2.1%-21.7%]). Only 46 fathers (2%) came to diagnose their child. Parental acceptance of EID was strongly correlated with prenatal self-reported HIV status: HIV-infected mothers were six times more likely to provide EID parental acceptance than mothers reporting unknown or negative prenatal HIV status (aOR: 5.9; 95% CI: [3.3-10.6], p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although the principle of EID was moderately accepted by mothers, fathers' acceptance rate remained very low. Routine HIV screening of all infants was inefficient for EID at a community level in Abidjan in 2008. Our results suggest the need of focusing on increasing the PMTCT coverage, involving fathers and tracing children issued from PMTCT programs in low HIV prevalence countries.

Pulmonary outcome and its correlates in school-aged children born with a gestational age ≤ 32 weeks.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data regarding factors influencing the respiratory outcome at school age of ex-preterms born since the introduction of antenatal steroids, surfactant replacement together with less aggressive ventilation. OBJECTIVES: To establish the main antenatal, neonatal and early childhood respiratory correlates of respiratory status in school-aged children born at ≤ 32 weeks of gestation. METHODS: Ex-preterm children born at ≤ 32 weeks of gestation between 1997 and 2001 at Bordeaux University Hospital were evaluated at school age, using a respiratory questionnaire and lung function tests (spirometry, plethysmography, exercise challenge test and CO lung diffusing capacity DLCO measurements). Factors associated with lung function were investigated using polynomial regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 151 included children [mean age: 8.6 ± 0.8 years; mean gestational age, 30.1 ± 1.7 weeks; mean birth weight = 1310 ± 380 g; 68.2% ventilated at birth; 46.4% treated with surfactant; 36.4% with prior bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD)], 47% presented obstructive lung abnormalities, 11% restrictive or mixed lung abnormalities, 41% exercise-induced bronchoconstriction, and 15.5% reduced DLCO. Surfactant therapy was independently associated with a lower risk of lung abnormalities (p < 0.05). The association between BPD and lung abnormalities at school age was not significant, but prior BPD increased the risk of restrictive or mixed abnormalities (odds ratio: 6.11, confidence interval [1.1; 33.99]). Early childhood respiratory events were not associated with the occurrence of lung abnormalities. CONCLUSION: Children born at ≤ 32 weeks of gestation remain at risk for impaired lung function at school age in particular when they did not receive surfactant. Restrictive or mixed lung defects are mainly associated with prior BPD.

When do HIV-infected women disclose their HIV status to their male partner and why? A study in a PMTCT programme, Abidjan.

BACKGROUND: In Africa, women tested for HIV during antenatal care are counselled to share with their partner their HIV test result and to encourage partners to undertake HIV testing. We investigate, among women tested for HIV within a prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programme, the key moments for disclosure of their own HIV status to their partner and the impact on partner HIV testing. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Within the Ditrame Plus PMTCT project in Abidjan, 546 HIV-positive and 393 HIV-negative women were tested during pregnancy and followed-up for two years after delivery. Circumstances, frequency, and determinants of disclosure to the male partner were estimated according to HIV status. The determinants of partner HIV testing were identified according to women's HIV status. During the two-year follow-up, disclosure to the partner was reported by 96.7% of the HIV-negative women, compared to 46.2% of HIV-positive women (chi(2) = 265.2, degrees of freedom [df] = 1, p < 0.001). Among HIV-infected women, privileged circumstances for disclosure were just before delivery, during early weaning (at 4 mo to prevent HIV postnatal transmission), or upon resumption of sexual activity. Formula feeding by HIV-infected women increased the probability of disclosure (adjusted odds ratio 1.54, 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.27, Wald test = 4.649, df = 1, p = 0.031), whereas household factors such as having a co-spouse or living with family reduced the probability of disclosure. The proportion of male partners tested for HIV was 23.1% among HIV-positive women and 14.8% among HIV-negative women (chi(2) = 10.04, df = 1, p = 0.002). Partners of HIV-positive women who were informed of their wife's HIV status were more likely to undertake HIV testing than those not informed (37.7% versus 10.5%, chi(2) = 56.36, df = 1, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In PMTCT programmes, specific psychosocial counselling and support should be provided to women during the key moments of disclosure of HIV status to their partners (end of pregnancy, weaning, and resumption of sexual activity). This support could contribute to improving women's adherence to the advice given to prevent postnatal and sexual HIV transmission.

[The challenges of preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Africa]. / Les défis soulevés par la prévention de la transmission mère-enfant du VIH en Afrique.

HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is the leading cause of infant mortality in Africa where 1700 children are infected each day, principally by mother-to-child transmission. Prevention of this risk is therefore a public health priority. Considerable progress has been made in the past 10 years in preventing the risk of mother-to-child transmission in the peripartum period in Africa: short antiretroviral regimens during the third trimester of pregnancy can reduce transmission rates to less than 5%. Breast-feeding, which is widespread and prolonged in Africa, causes many HIV infections and thus reduces the efficacy of peripartum interventions. Interventions that offer alternatives to prolonged breast-feeding and are both socially acceptable and safe for the infant can effectively reduce the risk of postnatal HIV transmission. But operational implementation of these postnatal interventions remains complex. Use of antiretroviral agents as prophylaxis for mother and child during the breast-feeding period and clinical management of breast-feeding mothers with combined antiretroviral treatments offer hope that the risk of postnatal HIV transmission can be reduced, but the effectiveness and safety of these interventions still need to be assessed.

Prenatal screening and diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis: a review of safety issues and psychological consequences for women who undergo screening.

As part of the EUROTOXO initiative, this review focuses on the potential risks associated with prenatal testing for congenital toxoplasmosis. We first review the evidence on the risks of adverse events associated with amniocentesis, which is required for definitive diagnosis of toxoplasmosis infection in the fetus, and for which the most important risk is fetal loss. To date, there has been only one randomized trial to document risks associated with amniocentesis. This trial, which was conducted in 1986, reported a procedure-related rate of fetal loss of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.3-1.5). However, evidence from available controlled studies suggests that the pregnancy loss associated with mid-trimester amniocentesis may be lower. Potential psychological consequences of prenatal testing for congenital toxoplasmosis include parental anxiety due to false positive results and uncertainties related to prognosis of children with a prenatal diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis. Parental anxiety may be particularly important in screening strategies that include more frequent screenings, which may in turn entail substantial, and at times unnecessary, anxiety or other negative consequences for women and their families. These negative psychological outcomes should be balanced against the benefits of testing, which can allow women to make an informed choice regarding the pregnancy.

Estimating incidence of HIV infection in childbearing age African women using serial prevalence data from antenatal clinics.

Ades and Medley provided the first flexible method for estimating age- and time-specific HIV incidence using HIV prevalence data collected among pregnant women and adjusting for the effect of differential selection between infected and uninfected women. This paper extends the approach proposed by these authors. We used a parametric model that allows the relative inclusion rate to depend on both age, calendar time, and duration of HIV infection. We developed a two dimensional penalized log-likelihood approach for estimating time- and age-specific incidence using a binomial likelihood function and a quadratic roughness penalty which allows smoothing over both age and time. Identifiability of the model parameters and effect of sample size are studied through simulations. The method is illustrated using prenatal HIV testing data recorded from 1995 to 2002 in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, to estimate the HIV annual incidence rate among women aged 12-40 year old, from the beginning of the epidemic to 2002. We show that estimated incidence rates are highly dependent on hypotheses made to model the relative inclusion rate. Despite this dependency, the application of the method leads to new and accurate findings on HIV incidence qualitative features in Abidjan. We highlight the relevance of such a method in monitoring the dynamics of HIV epidemic in Africa which is essential for planning vaccine trials and future treatment needs, and for assessment of prevention policy.