Trends analysis of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival for the elderly in the United States, 1975-2020.

BACKGROUND: Cancer burden from the elderly has been rising largely due to the aging population. However, research on the long-term epidemiological trends in cancer of the elderly is lacking. METHODS: Registry data of this population-based cross-sectional study were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The study population aged 65 years or more, from geographically distinct regions. Joinpoint regression and JP Surv method were used to analyze cancer trends and survival. RESULTS: Mortality rate during 1975-2020 decreased from 995.20 to 824.99 per 100,000 elderly persons, with an average annual decrease of 0.421% (95% CI, 0.378-0.464). While overall incidence increased with no significance. Prostate (29%) and breast (26%) cancer were the most common malignancies, respectively, in elderly males and females, and the mortality for both of the two (prostate 15%, breast 14%) ranked just behind lung and bronchus cancer, which had the highest mortality rates in males (29%) and females (23%). Many cancers showed adverse trends in the latest follow-up periods (the last period calculated by the Joinpoint method). For intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, incidence (male Annual Percentage Change [APC] = 7.4*; female APC = 6.7*) and mortality (male APC = 3.0*; female APC = 3.3*) increased relatively fast, and its survival was also terrible (3-year survival only 10%). Other cancers with recent increasing mortality included cancer of anus, anal canal and anorectum, retroperitoneum, pleura, peritoneum, etc. Most cancers had favorable trends of survival during the nearest follow-up period. CONCLUSION: Against the background of overall improvement, many cancers showed adverse trends. Further research for the underlying mechanisms and targeted implements towards adverse trends is also urgent.

Causes of death and nomogram for patients with oncologic hepato-biliary-pancreatic disorders: A large-cohort study.

The improvement of digestive cancer survival results in increased morbidity of noncancerous comorbidities. This study aimed at clarifying causes of death (COD) and predicting overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with liver cancer, gallbladder cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, and pancreatic cancer. We used the Surveillance, Epidemic, and End Results database to extract information. Nomograms of multivariate Cox regression was used to predict OS of cancer patients. The models were evaluated using the concordance indexes (C-indexes), the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves. Respectively 58,895, 15,324, 30,708, and 109,995 cases with cancer of liver, gallbladder, bile duct or pancreas were retrieved between 2000 and 2020. Approximately 80% deaths occurred within 1 years after cancer diagnosis. Sequence in noncancerous COD proportion was diverse, while diseases of heart always accounted for a great part. Risks of death from most noncancerous COD were significantly higher than that of the cancer-free population. Nomograms were developed by predictors of interest such as age, therapy and TNM stage. The concordance indexes of nomograms were 0.756, 0.729, 0.763, and 0.760 respectively, well-calibrating to the reality. The 0.5-, 1-, and 2-year areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were about 0.800, indicating good reliability and accuracy. Noncancerous COD accounted for larger part in gallbladder cancer and cholangiocarcinoma. Noncancerous COD showed an upward trend as follow-up time extended and the majorities were diseases of heart, cerebrovascular disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The novel OS-nomograms can provide personalized prognosis information with satisfactory accuracy.

Cause of death among gastric cancer survivors in the United States from 2000 to 2020.

A number of studies have been conducted to explore the survival of gastric cancer (GC) patients, while studies about non-cancer causes of death in patients with GC are not well-conducted. The aim of this study was to deeply investigate the causes of death (COD) in GC patients, especially non-cancer ones. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to extract information including demographics, tumor characteristics and causes of death of GC patients meeting the inclusion criteria. The patients were stratified by demographic and clinical parameters. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for all causes of death at different follow-up periods. A total of 116,437 patients with GC diagnosed between 2000 and 2020 were retrieved from the SEER database. Of these, 85,827 deaths occurred during the follow-up period, most of which occurred within 1 year after GC diagnosis. GC (n = 49,746; 58%) was the leading COD, followed by other cancer (n = 21,135; 25%) and non-cancer causes (n = 14,946; 17%). Diseases of heart were the most common non-cancer cause of death, accounting for 30%, followed by cerebrovascular diseases (n = 917; 6%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 900; 6%). Although gastric cancer remains the most common cause of death in gastric cancer patients, it should not be ignored that the risk of non-cancer causes tends to increase with the length of the latency period. These findings may provide important insights into the healthcare management of gastric cancer patients at various follow-up intervals.