Multidisciplinary-derived clinical score for accurate prediction of long-term mortality in fibrotic lung disease patients.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) stands out as one of the most aggressive forms of interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), currently without a definitive cure. Multidisciplinary discussion (MDD) is now considered a cornerstone in diagnosing and differentiating ILD subtypes. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) score, developed to assess IPF prognosis based on sex, age, forced vital capacity, and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), is limited in not considering dyspnea and functional impairment during the walking test. We proposed a MDD-based clinical score for mortality prediction among those patients. METHODS: From December 2018 to December 2019, we enrolled ILD patients with IPF and non-IPF and followed-up them till December 2020. Based on DLCO, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnea Scale, and six-minute walking test (6MWT) distance, a functional score was developed for mortality prediction. RESULTS: We enrolled 104 ILD patients, 12 (11.5%) died by the one-year follow-up. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, DLCO (% predicted) was the most accurate variable predicting one-year mortality with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80-0.94), followed by mMRC Dyspnea Score (AUC = 0.82 [95% CI = 0.73-0.89]), 6MWT distance (AUC = 0.80 [95% CI = 0.71-0.88]), and GAP score (AUC = 0.77 [95% CI = 0.67-0.84]). Only the GAP score (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.03-2.34, p = 0.0.37) and functional score (HR = 3.45, 95% CI = 1.11-10.73, p = 0.032) were significantly associated with one-year mortality in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: The clinical score composite of DLCO, mMRC Dyspnea Scale, and 6MWT distance could provide an accurate prediction for long-term mortality in ILD patients, laying out a helpful tool for managing and following these patients.

Factors influencing long-term outcomes in fibrotic interstitial lung disease (F-ILD) diagnosed through multidisciplinary discussion (MDD): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic process for fibrotic interstitial lung disease (F-ILD) is notably intricate, necessitating a multidisciplinary discussion to achieve consensus based on both clinical and radiological features. This study investigated the shared and distinctive long-term mortality predictors among the two primary phenotypes of F-ILD, namely idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD). METHODS: We included patients with F-ILD diagnosed from December 2018 to December 2019 and conducted follow-up assessments until February 2023. Age, gender, usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern, gender-age-physiology (GAP) score, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea score, antifibrotic agent use, pulmonary function test parameters, and six-minute walking test (6MWT) parameters were recorded at baseline and used as mortality predictors in a multivariate Cox regression model. RESULTS: We enrolled 104 ILD patients. The survival rate of non-IPF patients was more than twice that of IPF patients (78.9% vs. 34%, p < 0.001), and the survival rate of patients with a GAP score of 0-2 was more than twice that of patients with a score of > 2 (93.2% vs. 36.6%, p < 0.001). Older age, male gender, definite UIP pattern, higher GAP score, higher mMRC dyspnea score, lower forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC), shorter 6MWT distance, and lower initial and final SpO2 were also associated with higher long-term mortality (p < 0.05). In multivariable analysis, only a GAP score of > 2 (hazard ratio [HR]:16.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.28-85.14; p = 0.001) and definite UIP pattern (HR: 4.08; 95% CI 1.07-15.5; p = 0.039) were significantly associated with overall mortality. CONCLUSION: The long-term mortality rate of IPF patients was higher than that of CTD-ILD patients. The GAP score and UIP patterns were significant mortality predictors for both IPF and CTD-ILD patients.

Renal Histopathology Associated With Kidney Failure and Mortality in Patients With Lupus Nephritis: A Long-Term Real-World Data Study.

OBJECTIVE: Lupus nephritis (LN), a common manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus, is associated with a higher risk of kidney failure and death. The renal pathology of LN helps elucidate the severity of inflammation and the extent of irreversible damage. We aimed to identify histologic variables that correlate with risks of kidney failure and mortality. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2019, a total of 526 patients with LN were enrolled. Renal pathology was classified according to the International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society classification. Components of activity and chronicity indices were analyzed to determine which variables correlated with an increased risk of kidney failure and death, with the adjustment of potential confounders. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median 7.5, IQR 3.5-10.7 years), 58 patients progressed to kidney failure and 64 died. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, tubular atrophy (hazard ratio [HR] 2.28, 95% CI 1.66-3.14) and tubulointerstitial inflammation (HR 3.13, 95% CI 1.34-7.33) predicted kidney failure. The renal outcome was even worse if tubular atrophy and tubulointerstitial inflammation coexisted (10-year kidney survival rate: 63.22%). The presence of cellular crescents was associated with an increased risk of death in male patients with LN (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.02-3.57), whereas the presence of fibrous crescents predicted death in female patients with LN (HR 5.70, 95% CI 1.61-20.25). CONCLUSION: Histologic variables of renal biopsy in LN could be regarded as prognostic indicators for kidney failure and mortality.