Watch me grow integrated (WMG-I): protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of a web-based surveillance approach for developmental screening in primary care settings.

INTRODUCTION: The increasing prevalence of developmental disorders in early childhood poses a significant global health burden. Early detection of developmental problems is vital to ensure timely access to early intervention, and universal developmental surveillance is recommended best practice for identifying issues. Despite this, there is currently considerable variation in developmental surveillance and screening between Australian states and territories and low rates of developmental screening uptake by parents. This study aims to evaluate an innovative web-based developmental surveillance programme and a sustainable approach to referral and care pathways, linking primary care general practice (GP) services that fall under federal policy responsibility and state government-funded child health services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The proposed study describes a longitudinal cluster randomised controlled trial (c-RCT) comparing a 'Watch Me Grow Integrated' (WMG-I) approach for developmental screening, to Surveillance as Usual (SaU) in GPs. Forty practices will be recruited across New South Wales and Queensland, and randomly allocated into either the (1) WMG-I or (2) SaU group. A cohort of 2000 children will be recruited during their 18-month vaccination visit or opportunistic visit to GP. At the end of the c-RCT, a qualitative study using focus groups/interviews will evaluate parent and practitioner views of the WMG-I programme and inform national and state policy recommendations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The South Western Sydney Local Health District (2020/ETH01625), UNSW Sydney (2020/ETH01625) and University of Queensland (2021/HE000667) Human Research Ethics Committees independently reviewed and approved this study. Findings will be reported to the funding bodies, study institutes and partners; families and peer-reviewed conferences/publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ANZCTR12621000680864.

Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. RESULTS: Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72-0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

National Heart Foundation of Australia: position statement on coronary artery calcium scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: This position statement considers the evolving evidence on the use of coronary artery calcium scoring (CAC) for defining cardiovascular risk in the context of Australian practice and provides advice to health professionals regarding the use of CAC scoring in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia. Main recommendations: CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with moderate absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and for whom the findings are likely to influence the intensity of risk management. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with low absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the NVDPA absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and who have additional risk-enhancing factors that may result in the underestimation of risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score of 0 AU could reclassify a person to a low absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient-clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for low absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score > 99 AU or ≥ 75th percentile for age and sex could reclassify a person to a high absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient-clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for high absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.) CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THIS STATEMENT: CAC scoring can have a role in reclassification of absolute cardiovascular risk for selected patients in Australia, in conjunction with traditional absolute risk assessment and as part of a shared decision-making approach that considers the preferences and values of individual patients.

mHealth for Integrated People-Centred Health Services in the Western Pacific: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to examine how mobile health (mHealth) to support integrated people-centred health services has been implemented and evaluated in the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR). METHODS: Eight scientific databases were searched. Two independent reviewers screened the literature in title and abstract stages, followed by full-text appraisal, data extraction, and synthesis of eligible studies. Studies were extracted to capture details of the mhealth tools used, the service issues addressed, the study design, and the outcomes evaluated. We then mapped the included studies using the 20 sub-strategies of the WHO Framework on Integrated People-Centred Health Services (IPCHS); as well as with the RE-AIM (Reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance) framework, to understand how studies implemented and evaluated interventions. RESULTS: We identified 39 studies, predominantly from Australia (n = 16), China (n = 7), Malaysia (n = 4) and New Zealand (n = 4), and little from low income countries. The mHealth modalities included text messaging, voice and video communication, mobile applications and devices (point-of-care, GPS, and Bluetooth). Health issues addressed included: medication adherence, smoking cessation, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, asthma, diabetes, and lifestyle activities respectively. Almost all were community-based and focused on service issues; only half were disease-specific. mHealth facilitated integrated IPCHS by: enabling citizens and communities to bypass gatekeepers and directly access services; increasing affordability and accessibility of services; strengthening governance over the access, use, safety and quality of clinical care; enabling scheduling and navigation of services; transitioning patients and caregivers between care sectors; and enabling the evaluation of safety and quality outcomes for systemic improvement. Evaluations of mHealth interventions did not always report the underlying theories. They predominantly reported cognitive/behavioural changes rather than patient outcomes. The utility of mHealth to support and improve IPCHS was evident. However, IPCHS strategy 2 (participatory governance and accountability) was addressed least frequently. Implementation was evaluated in regard to reach (n = 30), effectiveness (n = 24); adoption (n = 5), implementation (n = 9), and maintenance (n = 1). CONCLUSIONS: mHealth can transition disease-centred services towards people-centred services. Critical appraisal of studies highlighted methodological issues, raising doubts about validity. The limited evidence for large-scale implementation and international variation in reporting of mHealth practice, modalities used, and health domains addressed requires capacity building. Information-enhanced implementation and evaluation of IPCHS, particularly for participatory governance and accountability, is also important.

Alcohol screening and brief interventions in primary care - Evidence and a pragmatic practice-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Risky alcohol drinking is a common problem in adults presenting in Australian general practice. Preventive health guidelines recommend routine delivery of alcohol screening and brief intervention (ASBI) by general practitioners (GPs). However, ASBIs have rarely been implemented successfully in a sustainable manner. OBJECTIVE: In this article, we explain the current state of empirical evidence for the effectiveness of ASBI in primary care and describe a pragmatic interpretation of how this evidence applies to routine care. DISCUSSION: The empirical evidence surrounding ASBIs is complex. ASBIs are efficacious in research settings, but their effectiveness when compared with control interventions in real-world practice is less certain. Alcohol assessment within therapeutic doctor-patient relationships, rather than the specific formal tools, may be the 'active ingredient'. A pragmatic, practice-based approach to early detection of risky drinking is to focus on strategies that allow asking patients about their drinking more regularly, documenting it, and using quality improvement methodology to improve alcohol recording data completeness for the practice population.

Identifying patient safety problems associated with information technology in general practice: an analysis of incident reports.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the categories of problems with information technology (IT), which affect patient safety in general practice. DESIGN: General practitioners (GPs) reported incidents online or by telephone between May 2012 and November 2013. Incidents were reviewed against an existing classification for problems associated with IT and the clinical process impacted. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: 87 GPs across Australia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Types of problems, consequences and clinical processes. RESULTS: GPs reported 90 incidents involving IT which had an observable impact on the delivery of care, including actual patient harm as well as near miss events. Practice systems and medications were the most affected clinical processes. Problems with IT disrupted clinical workflow, wasted time and caused frustration. Issues with user interfaces, routine updates to software packages and drug databases, and the migration of records from one package to another generated clinical errors that were unique to IT; some could affect many patients at once. Human factors issues gave rise to some errors that have always existed with paper records but are more likely to occur and cause harm with IT. Such errors were linked to slips in concentration, multitasking, distractions and interruptions. Problems with patient identification and hybrid records generated errors that were in principle no different to paper records. CONCLUSIONS: Problems associated with IT include perennial risks with paper records, but additional disruptions in workflow and hazards for patients unique to IT, occasionally affecting multiple patients. Surveillance for such hazards may have general utility, but particularly in the context of migrating historical records to new systems and software updates to existing systems.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD.

HoMER - an opportunity or threat to general practice research?

The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Harmonisation of Multicentre Ethical Review (HoMER) project aims to implement a 'single ethical review', where the outcome of an ethical and scientific review by a single recognised Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) will enable multiple institutions to decide whether or not to participate in a given study. The desired process will include agreement on time frames, authority of the reviewing HREC, respect among the jurisdictions, verification by independent organisations, and compliance with the national statement and relevant statutory and administrative frameworks. However, there appears to be little discourse on the implications for general practice research in the research community.

Stroke in rural areas and small communities.

The management of stroke in rural and regional areas is variable in both the developed and developing world. Informed by best-practice guidelines and recommendations for systems of stroke care, adaptable models of care that are appropriate for local needs should be devised for rural and regional settings. This review addresses the issue of the provision of appropriate services in rural and regional settings, with particular attention to the barriers involved, according to the classification of Low Human Development Country (LHDC), Medium Human Development Country (MHDC) and High Human Development Country (HHDC). We discuss the need and feasibility of developing implementing stroke care in rural settings according to best-practice recommendations, within models of care adapted to local conditions.

RACGP training registrars' perceptions and practice of prostate cancer screening.

AIM: To examine the perceptions, knowledge and reported intended practice of prostate cancer screening by general practice registrars. METHOD: A descriptive study using a mail survey of all Victorian general practice registrars and supplementary interviews. RESULTS: The response rate to the questionnaire was 74% (n = 148). The reported correct answer for the sensitivity and specificity of digital rectal examination (DRE) and prostate specific antigen (PSA) test was 48% and 52%, and 30% and 35% respectively. Responses to questions about registrar's knowledge of screening guidelines indicated respondents believe that men aged 50 years and over should undergo annual screening. Over 50% of respondents were not familiar with any Australian guidelines for prostate cancer screening. However, reported intended practice was consistent with guidelines, with 73% of respondents indicating they would not perform a PSA test as part of a 55 year old man's check up. Qualitative interviews highlighted the importance of The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners supervisor, peer learning at release sessions, and study group preparation for college examination in their clinical decision making. Online learning and access were seen to be potential areas for further development. DISCUSSION: While knowledge about the characteristics of tests for prostate cancer and Australian prostate screening guidelines is poor, most registrars practice according to current guidelines. The potential of online learning and increased access to the internet needs further study.