Predictors and outcomes of withholding and withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments in intensive care units in Singapore: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines on limitation of life-sustaining treatments (LST) in the intensive care unit (ICU), in the form of withholding or withdrawal of LST, state that there is no ethical difference between the two. Such statements are not uniformly accepted worldwide, and there are few studies on LST limitation in Asia. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors and outcomes of withholding and withdrawal of LST in Singapore, focusing on the similarities and differences between the two approaches. METHODS: This was a multicentre observational study of patients admitted to 21 adult ICUs across 9 public hospitals in Singapore over an average of three months per year from 2014 to 2019. The primary outcome measures were withholding and withdrawal of LST (cardiopulmonary resuscitation, invasive mechanical ventilation, and vasopressors/inotropes). The secondary outcome measure was hospital mortality. Multivariable generalised mixed model analysis was used to identify independent predictors for withdrawal and withholding of LST and if LST limitation predicts hospital mortality. RESULTS: There were 8907 patients and 9723 admissions. Of the former, 80.8% had no limitation of LST, 13.0% had LST withheld, and 6.2% had LST withdrawn. Common independent predictors for withholding and withdrawal were increasing age, absence of chronic kidney dialysis, greater dependence in activities of daily living, cardiopulmonary resuscitation before ICU admission, higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and higher level of care in the first 24 h of ICU admission. Additional predictors for withholding included being of Chinese race, the religions of Hinduism and Islam, malignancy, and chronic liver failure. The additional predictor for withdrawal was lower hospital paying class (with greater government subsidy for hospital bills). Hospital mortality in patients without LST limitation, with LST withholding, and with LST withdrawal was 10.6%, 82.1%, and 91.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Withholding (odds ratio 13.822, 95% confidence interval 9.987-19.132) and withdrawal (odds ratio 38.319, 95% confidence interval 24.351-60.298) were both found to be independent predictors of hospital mortality on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the independent predictors of withholding and withdrawal of LST exist. Even after accounting for baseline characteristics, both withholding and withdrawal of LST independently predict hospital mortality. Later mortality in patients who had LST withdrawn compared to withholding suggests that the decision to withdraw may be at the point when medical futility is recognised.

The Effect of Building-Level Socioeconomic Status on Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Understanding the social determinants of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) receipt can inform the design of public health interventions to increase bystander CPR. The association of socioeconomic status with bystander CPR is generally poorly understood. We evaluated the relationship between socioeconomic status and bystander CPR in cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study based on the Singapore cohort of the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study registry between 2010 and 2018. We categorized patients into low, medium, and high Singapore Housing Index (SHI) levels-a building-level index of socioeconomic status. The primary outcome was receipt of bystander CPR. The secondary outcomes were prehospital return of spontaneous circulation and survival to discharge. RESULTS: A total of 12,730 OHCA cases were included, the median age was 71 years, and 58.9% were male. The bystander CPR rate was 56.7%. Compared to patients in the low SHI category, those in the medium and high SHI categories were more likely to receive bystander CPR (medium SHI: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.48, 95% CI 1.30-1.69; high SHI: aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.67-2.24). High SHI patients had higher survival compared to low SHI patients on unadjusted analysis (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.08-2.96), but not adjusted analysis (adjusted for age, sex, race, witness status, arrest time, past medical history of cancer, and first arrest rhythm). When comparing high with low SHI, females had larger increases in bystander CPR rates than males. CONCLUSIONS: Lower building-level socioeconomic status was independently associated with lower rate of bystander CPR, and females were more susceptible to the effect of low socioeconomic status on lower rate of bystander CPR.

Prior Cancer Is Associated with Lower Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk at First Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Background: Patients with cancer are at increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). It is unclear if the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score at incident AMI is reflective of this higher risk in patients with prior cancer than those without. Methods: We linked nationwide AMI and cancer registries from 2008 to 2019. A total of 18,200 eligible patients with ASCVD risk score calculated at incident AMI were identified (1086 prior cancer; 17,114 no cancer). Results: At incident AMI, age-standardized mean ASCVD risk was lower in the prior cancer group (18.6%) than no cancer group (20.9%) (p < 0.001). Prior to incident AMI, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and diabetes mellitus were better controlled in the prior cancer group. However post-AMI, prior cancer was associated with lower guideline-directed medical therapy usage and higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.85, 95% confidence interval 1.66−2.07). Conclusions: AMI occurred despite better control of cardiovascular risk factors and lower age-standardized estimated mean 10-year ASCVD risk among patients with prior cancer than no cancer. Prior cancer was associated with lower guideline-directed medical therapy post-AMI and higher mortality.

Health Care Analytics With Time-Invariant and Time-Variant Feature Importance to Predict Hospital-Acquired Acute Kidney Injury: Observational Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) develops in 4% of hospitalized patients and is a marker of clinical deterioration and nephrotoxicity. AKI onset is highly variable in hospitals, which makes it difficult to time biomarker assessment in all patients for preemptive care. OBJECTIVE: The study sought to apply machine learning techniques to electronic health records and predict hospital-acquired AKI by a 48-hour lead time, with the aim to create an AKI surveillance algorithm that is deployable in real time. METHODS: The data were sourced from 20,732 case admissions in 16,288 patients over 1 year in our institution. We enhanced the bidirectional recurrent neural network model with a novel time-invariant and time-variant aggregated module to capture important clinical features temporal to AKI in every patient. Time-series features included laboratory parameters that preceded a 48-hour prediction window before AKI onset; the latter's corresponding reference was the final in-hospital serum creatinine performed in case admissions without AKI episodes. RESULTS: The cohort was of mean age 53 (SD 25) years, of whom 29%, 12%, 12%, and 53% had diabetes, ischemic heart disease, cancers, and baseline eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. There were 911 AKI episodes in 869 patients. We derived and validated an algorithm in the testing dataset with an AUROC of 0.81 (0.78-0.85) for predicting AKI. At a 15% prediction threshold, our model generated 699 AKI alerts with 2 false positives for every true AKI and predicted 26% of AKIs. A lowered 5% prediction threshold improved the recall to 60% but generated 3746 AKI alerts with 6 false positives for every true AKI. Representative interpretation results produced by our model alluded to the top-ranked features that predicted AKI that could be categorized in association with sepsis, acute coronary syndrome, nephrotoxicity, or multiorgan injury, specific to every case at risk. CONCLUSIONS: We generated an accurate algorithm from electronic health records through machine learning that predicted AKI by a lead time of at least 48 hours. The prediction threshold could be adjusted during deployment to optimize recall and minimize alert fatigue, while its precision could potentially be augmented by targeted AKI biomarker assessment in the high-risk cohort identified.

Multiplexed Single-Cell Leukocyte Enzymatic Secretion Profiling from Whole Blood Reveals Patient-Specific Immune Signature.

Enzymatic secretion of immune cells (leukocytes) plays a dominant role in host immune responses to a myriad of biological triggers, including infections, cancers, and cardiovascular diseases. Current tools to probe these leukocytes inadequately profile these vital biomarkers; the need for sample preprocessing steps of cell lysis, labeling, washing, and pipetting inevitably triggers the cells, changes its basal state, and dilutes the individual cell secretion in bulk assays. Using a fully integrated system for multiplexed profiling of native immune single-cell enzyme secretion from 50 µL of undiluted blood, we eliminate sample handling. With a total analysis time of 60 min, the integrated platform performs six tasks of leukocyte extraction, cell washing, fluorescent enzyme substrate mixing, single-cell droplet making, droplet incubation, and real-time readout for leukocyte secretion profiling of neutrophil elastase, granzyme B, and metalloproteinase. We calibrated the device, optimized the protocols, and tested the leukocyte secretion of acute heart failure (AHF) patients at admission and predischarge. This paper highlights the presence of single-cell enzymatic immune phenotypes independent of CD marker labeling, which could potentially elucidate the innate immune response states. We found that patients recovering from AHF showed a corresponding reduction in immune-cell enzymatic secretion levels and donor-specific enzymatic signatures were observed, which suggests patient-to-patient heterogeneous immune response. This platform presents opportunities to elucidate the complexities of the immune response from a single drop of blood and bridge the current technological, biological, and medical gap in understanding immune response and biological triggers.

Nitrates in combination with hydralazine in cardiorenal syndrome: a randomized controlled proof-of-concept study.

AIMS: Cardiorenal syndrome (CRS) is a common problem of great morbidity and mortality. Hydralazine-isosorbide dinitrate (H-ISDN) may be used in renal failure and may improve exercise capacity in heart failure (HF). Our proof-of-concept study aimed to evaluate early evidence of efficacy, safety, and feasibility of H-ISDN compared with standard of care in CRS. METHODS AND RESULTS: This multi-centre, single-blind, randomized trial in Singapore enrolled CRS patients, defined as chronic HF with concomitant renal failure [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 ]. The primary outcome was 6 min walk test (6MWT) distance measured at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included study feasibility; efficacy outcomes which included renal, cardiac, and endothelial functions, health-related quality of life using Short Form-36, clinical outcomes; and adverse events. Forty-four patients [71 ± 10 years; 75% male; median (inter-quartile range) N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide 1346 (481-2272) pg/mL] with CRS (left ventricular ejection fraction 42 ± 12% and eGFR 46 ± 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 ) were randomized into two equal groups. Of these, 39 (89%) had hypertension, 27 (61%) had diabetes mellitus, and 17 (39%) had atrial fibrillation. Six (27%) discontinued H-ISDN owing to intolerance and poor compliance. There was a trend towards improved 6MWT distance with H-ISDN compared with standard of care at 6 months (mean difference 27 m; 95% CI, -12 to 66), with little differences in secondary efficacy outcomes. Giddiness and hypotension occurred more frequently with H-ISDN, but HF hospitalizations and mortality were less. CONCLUSIONS: Our pilot study does not support the addition of H-ISDN on top of standard medical therapy to improve exercise capacity in patients with CRS.

Electronic health records accurately predict renal replacement therapy in acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health records (EHR) detect the onset of acute kidney injury (AKI) in hospitalized patients, and may identify those at highest risk of mortality and renal replacement therapy (RRT), for earlier targeted intervention. METHODS: Prospective observational study to derive prediction models for hospital mortality and RRT, in inpatients aged ≥18 years with AKI detected by EHR over 1 year in a tertiary institution, fulfilling modified KDIGO criterion based on serial serum creatinine (sCr) measures. RESULTS: We studied 3333 patients with AKI, of 77,873 unique patient admissions, giving an AKI incidence of 4%. KDIGO AKI stages at detection were 1(74%), 2(15%), 3(10%); corresponding peak AKI staging in hospital were 61, 20, 19%. 392 patients (12%) died, and 174 (5%) received RRT. Multivariate logistic regression identified AKI onset in ICU, haematological malignancy, higher delta sCr (sCr rise from AKI detection till peak), higher serum potassium and baseline eGFR, as independent predictors of both mortality and RRT. Additionally, older age, higher serum urea, pneumonia and intraabdominal infections, acute cardiac diseases, solid organ malignancy, cerebrovascular disease, current need for RRT and admission under a medical specialty predicted mortality. The AUROC for RRT prediction was 0.94, averaging 0.93 after 10-fold cross-validation. Corresponding AUROC for mortality prediction was 0.9 and 0.9 after validation. Decision tree analysis for RRT prediction achieved a balanced accuracy of 70.4%, and identified delta-sCr ≥ 148 µmol/L as the key factor that predicted RRT. CONCLUSION: Case fatality was high with significant renal deterioration following hospital-wide AKI. EHR clinical model was highly accurate for both RRT prediction and for mortality; allowing excellent risk-stratification with potential for real-time deployment.

Single-dose intravenous iron in Southeast Asian heart failure patients: A pilot randomized placebo-controlled study (PRACTICE-ASIA-HF).

AIMS: Iron deficiency is highly prevalent in Southeast Asians with heart failure (HF) and associated with worse outcomes. This trial aimed to assess the effect of intravenous iron in Southeast Asians hospitalized with decompensated HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifty patients hospitalized for acute decompensated HF, regardless of ejection fraction, with iron deficiency (defined as serum ferritin <300 ng/mL if transferrin saturation is <20%) were randomized to receive either one dose of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) 1000 mg or placebo (0.9% saline) following HF stabilization and before discharge in two Singapore tertiary centres. The primary endpoint was difference in 6-min walk test (6MWT) distance over 12 weeks, while secondary endpoints were quality of life assessed using validated Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Improvement in 6MWT distance at Week 12 was observed in both FCM and placebo groups (from 252 ± 123 to 334 ± 128 m and from 243 ± 67 to 301 ± 83 m, respectively). Unadjusted analysis showed 6MWT distance for FCM exceeded that for placebo, but adjustment for baseline covariates and time attenuated this effect {adjusted mean difference between groups: 0.88 m [95% confidence interval (CI) -30.2 to 32.0, P = 0.956]}. KCCQ overall summary and VAS were similar in both groups [adjusted mean difference: KCCQ -1.48 (95% CI -8.27 to 5.31, P = 0.670) and VAS 0.26 (95% CI -0.33 to 0.86, P = 0.386)]. FCM was well tolerated with no serious treatment-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous FCM administered pre-discharge in Southeast Asians hospitalized with decompensated HF is clinically feasible. Changes in 6MWT distance should be measured beyond Week 12 to account for background therapy effects.

Iron deficiency in a multi-ethnic Asian population with and without heart failure: prevalence, clinical correlates, functional significance and prognosis.

AIMS: Current heart failure (HF) guidelines highlight the importance of iron deficiency (ID) in HF. Whether HF itself or age-related comorbidities contribute to ID is uncertain, and previous data were limited to Western populations. We aimed to study the prevalence, clinical correlates, functional significance and prognosis of ID in HF patients, compared with community-based controls in a multi-ethnic Southeast Asian population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Iron status was assessed in 751 HF patients (age 62.0 ± 12.2 years, 75.5% men, 64.7% Chinese, 23.9% Malay, 10.2% Indian) and 601 controls (age 56.9 ± 10.4 years, 49.8% men, 70.9% Chinese, 21.5% Malay, 7.2% Indian). ID, defined as ferritin <100 µg/L or ferritin 100-300 µg/L and transferrin saturation (Tsat) <20%, was present in 39.3% of controls and 61.4% of HF [odds ratio (OR) 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5-4.9, adjusting for clinical covariates]. Independent correlates of ID in HF were Indian ethnicity (OR 2.4 vs. Chinese, 95% CI 1.2-5.0), female gender (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), larger body mass index (OR 1.05/unit increase, 95% CI 1.01-1.1) and decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 1.03/unit decrease, 95% CI 1.01-1.04). In a subset of 48 HF patients undergoing cardiopulmonary exercise testing, Tsat correlated with peak oxygen consumption (ρ = 0.53, P < 0.01), independent of baseline characteristics. The HF patients with Tsat <20% as well as anaemia showed the poorest event-free survival after adjusting for clinical covariates. CONCLUSIONS: ID was highly prevalent and independently related to functional capacity and outcomes in our cohort. These findings suggest a pathophysiological role of ID in HF and support its importance as a therapeutic target in Southeast Asian patients with HF.