RESUMO
Purpose: This study aimed to develop a nomogram model based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics features, clinicopathological characteristics, and blood parameters to predict the progression-free survival (PFS) of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: A total of 462 patients with pathologically confirmed nonkeratinizing NPC treated at Sichuan Cancer Hospital were recruited from 2015 to 2019 and divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used for radiomics feature dimension reduction and screening in the training cohort. Rad-score, age, sex, smoking and drinking habits, Ki-67, monocytes, monocyte ratio, and mean corpuscular volume were incorporated into a multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model to build a multifactorial nomogram. The concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to estimate its efficacy. Results: Nine significant features associated with PFS were selected by LASSO and used to calculate the rad-score of each patient. The rad-score was verified as an independent prognostic factor for PFS in NPC. The survival analysis showed that those with lower rad-scores had longer PFS in both cohorts (p < 0.05). Compared with the tumor-node-metastasis staging system, the multifactorial nomogram had higher C-indexes (training cohorts: 0.819 vs. 0.610; validation cohorts: 0.820 vs. 0.602). Moreover, the DCA curve showed that this model could better predict progression within 50% threshold probability. Conclusion: A nomogram that combined MRI-based radiomics with clinicopathological characteristics and blood parameters improved the ability to predict progression in patients with NPC.