Epidemiological behaviour and interventions of malaria in Niger, 2010-2019: a time-series analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Niger, with the number of cases increasing from 592,334 in 2000 to 3,138,696 in 2010. In response, a concerted campaign against the disease has been initiated. However, the implementation of these malaria interventions and their association with epidemiological behaviour remains unclear. METHODS: A time-series study was conducted in Niger from 2010 to 2019. Multiple data sources concerning malaria were integrated, encompassing national surveillance data, Statistic Yearbook, targeted malaria control interventions, and meteorological data. Incidence rate, mortality rate, and case fatality ratio (CFR) by different regions and age groups were analysed. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate annual changes in malaria. The changes in coverage of malaria interventions were evaluated. RESULTS: Between 2010 to 2019, the incidence rate of malaria decreased from 249.43 to 187.00 cases per 1,000 population in Niger. Niamey had a high annual mean incidence rate and the lowest CFR, while Agadez was on the contrary. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declining trend in malaria incidence for all age groups except the 10-24 years group, and the mortality rate and the CFR initially decreased followed by an increase in all age groups. Niger has implemented a series of malaria interventions, with the major ones being scaled up to larger populations during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up of multi-interventions in Niger has significantly reduced malaria incidence, but the rise in mortality rate and CFR addresses the challenges in malaria control and elimination. Malaria endemic countries should enhance surveillance of malaria cases and drug resistance in Plasmodium, improve diagnosis and treatment, expand the population coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention, and strengthen the management of severe malaria cases.

Impact of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking on the drug-resistance of newly diagnosed tuberculosis: a retrospective cohort study in Shandong, China, during 2004-2020.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the independent and collective impact of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking on the drug-resistance of newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Shandong, China. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with newly diagnosed TB from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2020 were collected. Exclusive criteria: retreated cases; extrapulmonary tuberculosis; without information on drug susceptibility testing results, smoking or drinking habits; bacteriological identification as non-tuberculous mycobacteria. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Patients were classified into four groups including smokers only (G1), drinker only (G2), smoker +drinker (G3), non-smoker +non-drinker group (G0). We described the drug-resistant profiles, clinical factors and calculated the ORs of different drug-resistance among G1, G2, G3, compared with G0 through univariate and multivariate logistics regression models. RESULTS: Of the 7996 TB cases enrolled, the proportions of G1, G2, G3 and G0 were 8.25%, 3.89%, 16.46% and 71.40%, respectively. The rates of drug-resistant (DR)-TB, mono-resistant TB, multidrug resistant (MDR)-TB, polydrug resistant TB in G1, G2, G3 and G0 were 19.24%/16.4%/17.33%/19.08%, 11.52%/8.68%/10.94%/11.63%, 3.03%/2.57%/2.96%/3.66% and 4.70%/4.82%/3.34%/ 4.08%, respectively. G3 had a higher risk of MDR1: isoniazid +rifampin (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.91, 95% CI: 1.036 to 3.532), but had a lower risk of DR-TB (aOR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.99), rifampin-related resistance (aOR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.93), streptomycin-related resistance (aOR=0.82, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.99), ethambutol-related resistance (aOR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.95), MDR3: isoniazid +rifampin+streptomycin (aOR=0.41, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.85), any isoniazid +streptomycin resistance (aOR=0.85, 95% CI: 0.71 to 1.00). However, there were no significant differences between G1 and G0, G2 and G0 in all drug-resistant subtypes. Those patients with cavity had a higher risk of DR-TB among G3 (OR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.81). CONCLUSION: Although we did not found an independent impact of alcohol drinking or tobacco smoking on TB drug-resistance, respectively, these two habits had a combined effect on TB drug-resistance.

Risk factors for drug-resistant tuberculosis, the association between comorbidity status and drug-resistant patterns: a retrospective study of previously treated pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China, during 2004-2019.

OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to identify the risk factors for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) and the association between comorbidity and drug resistance among retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). DESIGN: A retrospective study was conducted among all the 36 monitoring sites in Shandong, China, over a 16-year period. Baseline characteristics were collected from the TB Surveillance System. Categorical variables were compared by Fisher's exact or Pearson's χ2 test. The risk factors for drug resistance were identified using univariable analysis and multivariable logistic models. The influence of comorbidity on different types of drug resistance was evaluated by performing multivariable logistic models with the covariates adjusted by age, sex, body mass index, drinking/smoking history and cavity. RESULTS: A total of 10 975 patients with PTB were recorded during 2004-2019, and of these 1924 retreated PTB were finally included. Among retreated PTB, 26.2% were DR-TB and 12.5% had comorbidity. Smoking (adjusted OR (aOR): 1.69, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.39), cavity (aOR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.97) and comorbidity (aOR: 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.02) were risk factors for DR-TB. Of 504 DR-TB, 9.5% had diabetes mellitus, followed by hypertension (2.0%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.8%). Patients with retreated PTB with comorbidity were more likely to be older, have more bad habits (smoking, alcohol abuse) and have clinical symptoms (expectoration, haemoptysis, weight loss). Comorbidity was significantly associated with DR-TB (aOR: 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.02), overall rifampin resistance (aOR: 2.17, 95% CI 1.41 to 3.36), overall streptomycin resistance (aOR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.27) and multidrug resistance (aOR: 1.96, 95% CI 1.17 to 3.27) compared with pan-susceptible patients (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Smoking, cavity and comorbidity lead to an increased risk of drug resistance among retreated PTB. Strategies to improve the host's health, including smoking cessation, screening and treatment of comorbidity, might contribute to the control of tuberculosis, especially DR-TB, in China.

Using a risk model for probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules.

BACKGROUND: Considering the high morbidity and mortality of lung cancer and the high incidence of pulmonary nodules, clearly distinguishing benign from malignant lung nodules at an early stage is of great significance. However, determining the kind of lung nodule which is more prone to lung cancer remains a problem worldwide. METHODS: A total of 480 patients with pulmonary nodule data were collected from Shandong, China. We assessed the clinical characteristics and computed tomography (CT) imaging features among pulmonary nodules in patients who had undergone video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy from 2013 to 2018. Preliminary selection of features was based on a statistical analysis using SPSS. We used WEKA to assess the machine learning models using its multiple algorithms and selected the best decision tree model using its optimization algorithm. RESULTS: The combination of decision tree and logistics regression optimized the decision tree without affecting its AUC. The decision tree structure showed that lobulation was the most important feature, followed by spiculation, vessel convergence sign, nodule type, satellite nodule, nodule size and age of patient. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that decision tree analyses can be applied to screen individuals for early lung cancer with CT. Our decision tree provides a new way to help clinicians establish a logical diagnosis by a stepwise progression method, but still needs to be validated for prospective trials in a larger patient population.

Primary drug resistance of mycobacterium tuberculosis in Shandong, China, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: Primary drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) has contributed to a significant health and economic burden on a global scale, especially in China. we sought to estimate epidemiological characteristics of primary DR-TB in China from 2004 to 2018. METHODS: Eleven thousand four hundred sixty-seven newly diagnosed and 1981 retreated TB cases with drug susceptibility data were included. Chi-Square test for trends, linear regression, a joinpoint regression model and temporal trend in proportions of the different resistance patterns were carried out. RESULTS: The proportion of primary DR-TB and mono-resistant TB (MR-TB) in China had reduced by more than 12% since 2004, and were 21.38%, 13.35% in 2018 respectively. Among primary DR-TB cases (2173,18.95%), the percentage of multiresistant TB (MDR-TB, from 5.41 to 17.46%), male (from 77.03 to 84.13%), cavity (from 13.51 to 43.92%), rifampicin(RFP)-resistant TB (from 8.11 to 26.98%), streptomycin(SM)-resistant TB (from 50.00 to 71.43%) increased significantly (P < 0.05). On the contrary, the proportion of female, non-cavity, isoniazide(INH)-resistant TB (from 55.41 to 48.15%) and MR-TB (from 82.43 to 62.43%) decreased significant (P < 0.05). The primary drug resistance rate among female, cavity, smoking, drinking, 15 to 44 year-old TB subgroups increased by 0.16, 6.24, 20.95, 158.85, 31.49%, respectively. The percentage of primary DR-TB, RFP-resistant TB dropped significantly during 2004-2007 in Joinpoint regression model. CONCLUSION: The total rate of drug resistance among new TB cases showed a downward trend in Shandong, China, from 2004 to 2018. Primary drug resistance patterns were shifting from female, non-cavity, INH-resistant TB, and MR-TB groups to male, cavity, RFP/SM-resistant TB, and MDR-TB groups. Considering the rising drug resistance rate among some special population, future control of primary DR-TB in China may require an increased focus on female, cavity, smoking, drinking, or 15 to 44 year-old TB subgroups.

The burden of air pollution and weather condition on daily respiratory deaths among older adults in China, Jinan from 2011 to 2017.

The health effects of short-term exposure to air pollutants on respiratory deaths and its modifiers such as meteorological indexes have been widely investigated. However, most of the previous studies are limited to single pollutants or total respiratory deaths, and their findings are inconsistent.To comprehensively examine the short-term effects of air pollutants on daily respiratory mortality.Our analysis included 16,931 nonaccidental respiratory deaths (except lung cancer and tuberculosis) among older adults (>65 years) from 2011 to 2017 in Jinan, China. We used a generalized additive Poisson models adjusted for meteorology and population dynamics to examine the associations between air pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of b2.5µm [PM2.5], particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of b10µm [PM10], SO2, NO2, O3) and daily mortality for the total patients, males, females, chronic airway diseases, pneumonia patients, and rest patients in Jinan.Outdoor air pollution was significantly related to mortality from all respiratory diseases especially from chronic airway disease in Jinan, China. The effects of air pollutants had lag effects and harvesting effects, and the effects estimates usually reached a peak at lag 1 or 2 day. An increase of 10 µg/m or 10 ppb of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 corresponds to increments in mortality caused by chronic airway disease of 0.243% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.172-0.659) at lag 1 day, 0.127% (95% CI: -0.161-0.415) at lag 1 day, 0.603% (95% CI: 0.069-1.139) at lag 3 day, 0.649% (95% CI: -0.808-2.128) at lag 0 day and 0.944% (95% CI: 0.156-0.1598) at lag 1 day, respectively. The effects of air pollutants were usually greater in females and varied by respiratory subgroups. Spearman correlation analysis suggested that there was a significant association between meteorological indexes and air pollutants.Sex, age, temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed may modify the short-term effects of outdoor air pollution on mortality in Jinan. Compared with the other pollutants, O3 had a stronger effect on respiratory deaths among the elderly. Moreover, chronic airway diseases were more susceptible to air pollution. Our findings provided new evidence for new local environmental and health policies making.