Using machine learning techniques to predict the risk of osteoporosis based on nationwide chronic disease data.

Osteoporosis is a major public health concern that significantly increases the risk of fractures. The aim of this study was to develop a Machine Learning based predictive model to screen individuals at high risk of osteoporosis based on chronic disease data, thus facilitating early detection and personalized management. A total of 10,000 complete patient records of primary healthcare data in the German Disease Analyzer database (IMS HEALTH) were included, of which 1293 diagnosed with osteoporosis and 8707 without the condition. The demographic characteristics and chronic disease data, including age, gender, lipid disorder, cancer, COPD, hypertension, heart failure, CHD, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and stroke were collected from electronic health records. Ten different machine learning algorithms were employed to construct the predictive mode. The performance of the model was further validated and the relative importance of features in the model was analyzed. Out of the ten machine learning algorithms, the Stacker model based on Logistic Regression, AdaBoost Classifier, and Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrated superior performance. The Stacker model demonstrated excellent performance through ten-fold cross-validation on the training set and ROC curve analysis on the test set. The confusion matrix, lift curve and calibration curves indicated that the Stacker model had optimal clinical utility. Further analysis on feature importance highlighted age, gender, lipid metabolism disorders, cancer, and COPD as the top five influential variables. In this study, a predictive model for osteoporosis based on chronic disease data was developed using machine learning. The model shows great potential in early detection and risk stratification of osteoporosis, ultimately facilitating personalized prevention and management strategies.

Using multiple indicators to predict the risk of surgical site infection after ORIF of tibia fractures: a machine learning based study.

Objective: Surgical site infection (SSI) are a serious complication that can occur after open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of tibial fractures, leading to severe consequences. This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML)-based predictive model to screen high-risk patients of SSI following ORIF of tibial fractures, thereby aiding in personalized prevention and treatment. Methods: Patients who underwent ORIF of tibial fractures between January 2018 and October 2022 at the Department of Emergency Trauma Surgery at Ganzhou People's Hospital were retrospectively included. The demographic characteristics, surgery-related variables and laboratory indicators of patients were collected in the inpatient electronic medical records. Ten different machine learning algorithms were employed to develop the prediction model, and the performance of the models was evaluated to select the best predictive model. Ten-fold cross validation for the training set and ROC curves for the test set were used to evaluate model performance. The decision curve and calibration curve analysis were used to verify the clinical value of the model, and the relative importance of features in the model was analyzed. Results: A total of 351 patients who underwent ORIF of tibia fractures were included in this study, among whom 51 (14.53%) had SSI and 300 (85.47%) did not. Of the patients with SSI, 15 cases were of deep infection, and 36 cases were of superficial infection. Given the initial parameters, the ET, LR and RF are the top three algorithms with excellent performance. Ten-fold cross-validation on the training set and ROC curves on the test set revealed that the ET model had the best performance, with AUC values of 0.853 and 0.866, respectively. The decision curve analysis and calibration curves also showed that the ET model had the best clinical utility. Finally, the performance of the ET model was further tested, and the relative importance of features in the model was analyzed. Conclusion: In this study, we constructed a multivariate prediction model for SSI after ORIF of tibial fracture through ML, and the strength of this study was the use of multiple indicators to establish an infection prediction model, which can better reflect the real situation of patients, and the model show great clinical prediction performance.

Metabolism and senescence in the immune microenvironment of osteosarcoma: focus on new therapeutic strategies.

Osteosarcoma is a highly aggressive and metastatic malignant tumor. It has the highest incidence of all malignant bone tumors and is one of the most common solid tumors in children and adolescents. Osteosarcoma tissues are often richly infiltrated with inflammatory cells, including tumor-associated macrophages, lymphocytes, and dendritic cells, forming a complex immune microenvironment. The expression of immune checkpoint molecules is also high in osteosarcoma tissues, which may be involved in the mechanism of anti-tumor immune escape. Metabolism and senescence are closely related to the immune microenvironment, and disturbances in metabolism and senescence may have important effects on the immune microenvironment, thereby affecting immune cell function and immune responses. Metabolic modulation and anti-senescence therapy are gaining the attention of researchers as emerging immunotherapeutic strategies for tumors. Through an in-depth study of the interconnection of metabolism and anti- senescence in the tumor immune microenvironment and its regulatory mechanism on immune cell function and immune response, more precise therapeutic strategies can be developed. Combined with the screening and application of biomarkers, personalized treatment can be achieved to improve therapeutic efficacy and provide a scientific basis for clinical decision-making. Metabolic modulation and anti- senescence therapy can also be combined with other immunotherapy approaches, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors and tumor vaccines, to form a multi-level and multi-dimensional immunotherapy strategy, thus further enhancing the effect of immunotherapy. Multidisciplinary cooperation and integrated treatment can optimize the treatment plan and maximize the survival rate and quality of life of patients. Future research and clinical practice will further advance this field, promising more effective treatment options for patients with osteosarcoma. In this review, we reviewed metabolic and senescence characteristics in the immune microenvironment of osteosarcoma and related immunotherapies, and provide a reference for development of more personalized and effective therapeutic strategies.

A practical dynamic nomogram model for predicting bone metastasis in patients with thyroid cancer.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to established a dynamic nomogram for assessing the risk of bone metastasis in patients with thyroid cancer (TC) and assist physicians to make accurate clinical decisions. Methods: The clinical data of patients with TC admitted to the First Affiliated hospital of Nanchang University from January 2006 to November 2016 were included in this study. Demographic and clinicopathological parameters of all patients at primary diagnosis were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to build a predictive model incorporating parameters. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were evaluated using the C-index, ROC curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was evaluated using the bootstrapping method. Results: A total of 565 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 25 (4.21%) developed bone metastases. Based on logistic regression analysis, age (OR=1.040, P=0.019), hemoglobin (HB) (OR=0.947, P<0.001) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (OR=1.006, P=0.002) levels were used to construct the nomogram. The model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.825 and good calibration. A C-index value of 0.815 was achieved on interval validation analysis. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful when intervention was decided at a bone metastases possibility threshold of 1%. Conclusions: This dynamic nomogram, with relatively good accuracy, incorporating age, HB, and ALP, could be conveniently used to facilitate the prediction of bone metastasis risk in patients with TC.

Using Machine Learning Methods to Predict Bone Metastases in Breast Infiltrating Ductal Carcinoma Patients.

Breast cancer (BC) was the most common malignant tumor in women, and breast infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC) accounted for about 80% of all BC cases. BC patients who had bone metastases (BM) were more likely to have poor prognosis and bad quality of life, and earlier attention to patients at a high risk of BM was important. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on machine learning to predict risk of BM in patients with IDC. Six different machine learning algorithms, including Logistic regression (LR), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC), Decision tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were used to build prediction models. The XGB model offered the best predictive performance among these 6 models in internal and external validation sets (AUC: 0.888, accuracy: 0.803, sensitivity: 0.801, and specificity: 0.837). Finally, an XGB model-based web predictor was developed to predict risk of BM in IDC patients, which may help physicians make personalized clinical decisions and treatment plans for IDC patients.

Using Preoperative and Intraoperative Factors to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections After Lumbar Spinal Surgery: A Machine Learning-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model based on machine learning to predict surgical site infection (SSI) risk in patients after lumbar spinal surgery (LSS). METHODS: Patients who developed postoperative SSI after LSS in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between December 2010 and December 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Preoperative and intraoperative variables, including age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index, previous spinal surgery history, surgical duration, number of fused segments, blood loss, and surgical procedure were analyzed. Six machine learning algorithms-logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting-were used to build prediction models. The performance of the models was evaluated using the area under the curve, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and F1 score. A web predictor was developed based on the best-performing model. RESULTS: The study included 288 patients who underwent LSS, of whom 144 developed SSI and 144 did not develop SSI. The extreme gradient boosting model offers the best predictive performance among these 6 models (area under the curve = 0.923, accuracy = 0.860, precision = 0.900, sensitivity = 0.834, F1 score = 0.864). An extreme gradient boosting model-based web predictor was developed to predict SSI in patients after LSS. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a machine learning model and a web predictor for predicting SSI in patients after LSS, which may help clinicians screen high-risk patients, provide personalized treatment, and reduce the incidence of SSI after LSS.

Prediction of bone metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer based on machine learning.

Objective: The purpose of this paper was to develop a machine learning algorithm with good performance in predicting bone metastasis (BM) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and establish a simple web predictor based on the algorithm. Methods: Patients who diagnosed with NSCLC between 2010 and 2018 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were involved. To increase the extensibility of the research, data of patients who first diagnosed with NSCLC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2007 and December 2016 were also included in this study. Independent risk factors for BM in NSCLC were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. At this basis, we chose six commonly machine learning algorithms to build predictive models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Decision tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB). Then, the best model was identified to build the web-predictor for predicting BM of NSCLC patients. Finally, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were used to evaluate the performance of these models. Results: A total of 50581 NSCLC patients were included in this study, and 5087(10.06%) of them developed BM. The sex, grade, laterality, histology, T stage, N stage, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for NSCLC. Of these six models, the machine learning model built by the XGB algorithm performed best in both internal and external data setting validation, with AUC scores of 0.808 and 0.841, respectively. Then, the XGB algorithm was used to build a web predictor of BM from NSCLC. Conclusion: This study developed a web predictor based XGB algorithm for predicting the risk of BM in NSCLC patients, which may assist doctors for clinical decision making.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Bone Metastasis in Patients with Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting bone metastases (BM) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients. METHODS: Demographic and clinicopathologic variables of PCa patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. We used six different machine learning algorithms, including Decision tree (DT), Random forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Logistic regression (LR), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB), to build prediction models. External validation using data from 644 PCa patients of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2010 to 2016. The performance of the models was evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy score, sensitivity (recall rate) and specificity. A web predictor was developed based on the best performance model. RESULTS: A total of 207,137 PCa patients from SEER were included in this study. Of whom, 6725 (3.25%) developed BM. Gleason score, Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value, T, N stage and age were found to be the risk factors of BM. The XGB model offered the best predictive performance among these 6 models (AUC: 0.962, accuracy: 0.884, sensitivity (recall rate): 0.906, and specificity: 0.879). An XGB model-based web predictor was developed to predict BM in PCa patients. CONCLUSION: This study developed a machine learning model and a web predictor for predicting the risk of BM in PCa patients, which may help physicians make personalized clinical decisions and treatment strategy for patients.

Machine learning for the prediction of bone metastasis in patients with newly diagnosed thyroid cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to establish a machine learning prediction model that can be used to predict bone metastasis (BM) in patients with newly diagnosed thyroid cancer (TC). METHODS: Demographic and clinicopathologic variables of TC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. On this basis, we developed a random forest (RF) algorithm model based on machine-learning. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy score, recall rate, and specificity are used to evaluate and compare the prediction performance of the RF model and the other model. RESULTS: A total of 17,138 patients were included in the study, with 166 (0.97%) developed bone metastases. Grade, T stage, histology, race, sex, age, and N stage were the important prediction features of BM. The RF model has better predictive performance than the other model (AUC: 0.917, accuracy: 0.904, recall rate: 0.833, and specificity: 0.905). CONCLUSIONS: The RF model constructed in this study could accurately predict bone metastases in TC patients, which may provide clinicians with more personalized clinical decision-making recommendations. Machine learning technology has the potential to improve the development of BM prediction models in TC patients.

Wortmannilactones I-L, new NADH-fumarate reductase inhibitors, induced by adding suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid to the culture medium of Talaromyces wortmannii.

With the aim of finding more potential inhibitors against NADH-fumarate reductase (specific target for treating helminthiasis and cancer) from natural resources, Talaromyces wortmannii was treated with the epigenome regulatory agent suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid, which resulted in the isolation of four new wortmannilactones derivatives (wortmannilactones I-L, 1-4). The structures of these new compounds were elucidated based on IR, HRESIMS and NMR spectroscopic data analyses. These four new compounds showed potent inhibitory activity against NADH-fumarate reductase with the IC50 values ranging from 0.84 to 1.35µM.